my journal 2

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travis said:
Yeah, I look at when the day is down 300 ticks on the CL and 200 ticks on the EUR, GBP and the rest of them currencies.

However, I am an unprofitable discretionary trader, so feel free to ignore my little theories.
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OK I'm with you again. Your definition of oversold is more or less when it's down by the average true range, then?

I'm not sure I can make a good discretionary trader either, I keep trying to define everything in terms of a computer algorithm. Like now.
 
Adamus said:
OK I'm with you again. Your definition of oversold is more or less when it's down by the average true range, then?

I'm not sure I can make a good discretionary trader either, I keep trying to define everything in terms of a computer algorithm. Like now.
Click to expand...

I think there is one flaux with this method. Where's the stop?

Try this method around 12am-1pm New York time. IG Index actually gives you the top movers by currency pair. Also at 8pm GMT, there is the IMM close, if you have seen a big move in a currency pair you will most likely see it tail off around 7:45-8pm. I always look for double tops around resistence on a move that goes against the daily trend and meets a resistence pivot point.

Basic method (GMT).
1) 4pm check top movers for the day.
2) Check their daily trend. If the move is against the trend go to step 3.
3) Look for pivot points. Just chart points that you think will act as resistence.
4) 5pm -8pm. Wait for the price to test the resistence if the daily trend is down and the move is up for the day. Check for reversal bars on 15min chart.
5) Put limit entry order in 5 pips below the high, with a stop above next resistence or 50 points. (This is what makes you a trader. No fear. Price could potentially make higher highs, but you're sure it wont. Trading breakouts is easy.)
6) First target 50 pips, second is up to you, but normally 80-150. I look for support for getting out the trade.
 
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Adamus said:
OK I'm with you again. Your definition of oversold is more or less when it's down by the average true range, then?

I'm not sure I can make a good discretionary trader either, I keep trying to define everything in terms of a computer algorithm. Like now.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah, but keep doing that, because I can answer exactly, since I back-tested it as well. If you wish we could also define it in terms of % change.

Since 125 ticks is 1% on the euro, let's say you have to wait until we're down at least 1.5% (compared to yesterday's close).

You're better off listening to his advice above, since he's profitable.

Regarding brettus' remark, I use no stoploss, but that doesn't mean I don't exit - I exit 12 hours after entering (see previous post for strategy). Besides, as I said earlier, I do not trade that strategy because I don't trade discretionary, and right I am not trading period, due to poverty.
 
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problem with befriended users

I've noticed how some befriended people have removed themselves from being my friends. I am going to find out who they are and I will hunt them down. Friendship is forever.
 
time for my cocktail of sleeping pills

I already took 2 melatonin pills. Now I have 3 more to go: eschscholzia (how the **** do you spell this?), valbiapas and xanax.

While I take the pills, I play Jack Nitzsche's Medication Valse :



My hate for the neighbours slamming their door is making me do this, my resentment towards my father and other people who have mistreated me. My excessive politeness and kindness which I learned from my mom, and which causes me to be abused, from my dad in the first place.

All these things cause me to not sleep well, and make me want to have a lot of money to buy a huge place to live all by myself, and move away from people I don't like, like neighbours and the Romans, who are assholes mostly. And all this has lead me to trading. A distant dream would also be to hire some killers to kill a few people who harassed me from kindergarten to highschool. But that's not safe - I could get caught, it's not like in the movies. It would be easier to buy their company and fire them. Right. Or bribe their employer to fire them. That's what I'll do.
 
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Still watching this beautiful documentary on the Story of English. Now I got as far as episode 8:

 
travis said:
Still watching this beautiful documentary on the Story of English. Now I got as far as episode 8:

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Is there anything you dont blame your parents or friends for? Have all your weak personality traits come from mental torture of people who have abused you. Has your inability to find people who share the same interests as you inhibited your ability to become successful drawn from earlier childhood issues. Look at yourself man. Stop blaming others.
 
Monarchy (TV series)

Look who's talking. You keep on blaming me for stuff. Why don't you start a journal so I can come criticize you for something as well? It's pretty easy to come and call me "weak" every other post, when I am opening up and you're not writing anything about yourself. Let's see how healthy you are. Tell how perfect your life is. I mean, thanks for the advice, but stop insulting. Try and phrase things differently.

Anyway, the next documentary I'll have to watch is this one:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarchy_with_David_Starkey

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=4978127911286916960#

Then, on to this one:



Damn, this guy goes too fast. I need a simpler one, so first I'll start with this one:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_conquest_of_Britain

And so on, in this direction.
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angeln
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angli#Etymology

Angeln has a significance far beyond its current small area and country terrain, in that it is believed to have been the original home of the Angles, Germanic immigrants to central and northern England, and East Anglia. This migration led to their new homeland being named after them, from which the name "England" derives. Both England and the English language thus ultimately derive their names from the Angles and Angeln.
Click to expand...

250px-Angeln.jpg
 
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doing ok

The cocktail of sleeping pills is working really well. Despite very hot weather, and sweating all night, and waking up about 10 times, I went back to sleep each time and actually slept almost 8 hours, and feel quite rested. I even came to work on time.

Not as good with the traded systems: losing for the thrid week in a row.

Also, there will be a new roommate - an intern. Hopefully he won't stay long. Other than this, my work is proceeding quite well. When I sleep well, everything is well.

I even met a bitchy taxi driver and I wasn't even thinking about her - a total bitch. But I managed not to argue with her.

I figured out a dream to dream when I want to go back to sleep. It's probably only possible because of the sleeping pills. Anyway, when I wake up because the baby is crying (neighbour) or something like that, instead of getting up, I start thinking that I am getting up and doing whatever I thought I'd be doing. You know, just like I used to do when I was going to school. The alarm woke me up, and instead of getting up, I'd dream I was getting up and ready. And then, thirty minutes later, when my mom came in, I was still sleeping, but dreaming that I was taking a shower, or getting dressed.
 
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I don't trade discretionary anymore. Right now I am developing more trading systems, tonight I might finish my 61st system.
 
It failed, mostly. The OUT sample years didn't deliver what the IN sample promised. However it wasn't the consequence of over-optimization. They simply didn't work. So now I am back at 55. It's not safe to use systems that fail for more than one year, and these systems do it. There's no way around it. If the OUT sample says they fail... well, here's my latest decision - just as I was writing this: I will keep the AUD, because it's good for the future (to keep the model alive and forward-test it), and because it performed really well in both IN and OUT samples. One could argue that it's pure randomness, but it might also be because of the Australian timezone. Even if it fails, the risk is very small, because it trades once a month, and its results will be diluted by the other dozens of systems. So now I am at 56 systems.

Later edit:
I will keep EUR and CHF also, after getting an opinion from someone else. So now I am at 58.
 
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