Yamato
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Yamato
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good to hear you are turning things around, alas i had a very bad week because of my loose trading and holding 3 bad short contracts during the whole time. I do not know but it was some sort of self sabbotage and when you have a large loosing position you tend to view the market with a bias to that direction. Anyway keep it up.
Yamato
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Yamato
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Yamato
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Yamato
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http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-32,10
Still not making much profit at all, but the fact alone that I can post every single 10-trade sequence means that, thanks to applying the stoploss, I am totally in control of every trade I make. The worst outcome so far has been -66% as predicted.
Still not making much profit at all, but the fact alone that I can post every single 10-trade sequence means that, thanks to applying the stoploss, I am totally in control of every trade I make. The worst outcome so far has been -66% as predicted.
Yamato
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Ok, I've lost control here so I stopped at my fourth trade:
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-33,5
I was doing so well that once I incurred a loss, I froze and was unable to close the trade, because I was expecting it to be a win.
Now I'll try to make the same 10-trades at a time, but all on the same balance sheet, all the way to 100 trades. To see how it affects my trades.
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-33,5
I was doing so well that once I incurred a loss, I froze and was unable to close the trade, because I was expecting it to be a win.
Now I'll try to make the same 10-trades at a time, but all on the same balance sheet, all the way to 100 trades. To see how it affects my trades.
Yamato
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You could practice on the chart game, too. Because your bad behaviours in real trading are the same that happen in the chart game. So why not solve them for free? You'll never be able to waste enough money to practice enough to solve all your problems. I am speaking for myself. After 1000s of trades on the chart game, I still haven't figured out how to ALWAYS use a stoploss, which is definitely a must.
Yamato
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better a low edge but automated than great edge but all intuition
It didn't work. After 10 trades, I lost control. It's not that the 11th trade exhausted me: what exhausted me was the fear of having to do another 90 trades. With just 10 trades at a time, you're always close to finishing so you feel you can focus for a few more trades. But with 100 trades to go, you're overwhelmed. This is because each time I have to focus and think before I make a trade, and this is because I still have not defined univocal rules for my trading.
It would be better to have less of an edge but entirely univocal rules and a mechanical system than to have a great edge which is not clearly defined and which entirely relies on your "gut instinct", intuition and so on, because unless your emotional balance is perfect, you're not going to know whether you'll make money or not. I'd rather work on defining univocal rules for a pretty good edge, than developing an incredible edge which is not automated but entirely relies on my instinct.
It didn't work. After 10 trades, I lost control. It's not that the 11th trade exhausted me: what exhausted me was the fear of having to do another 90 trades. With just 10 trades at a time, you're always close to finishing so you feel you can focus for a few more trades. But with 100 trades to go, you're overwhelmed. This is because each time I have to focus and think before I make a trade, and this is because I still have not defined univocal rules for my trading.
It would be better to have less of an edge but entirely univocal rules and a mechanical system than to have a great edge which is not clearly defined and which entirely relies on your "gut instinct", intuition and so on, because unless your emotional balance is perfect, you're not going to know whether you'll make money or not. I'd rather work on defining univocal rules for a pretty good edge, than developing an incredible edge which is not automated but entirely relies on my instinct.
Yamato
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http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-38,10
I went back to the usual 10 trades. Sooner or later I'll improve with my intuition, and then I'll be able to define what I'm doing in terms of univocal rules. I can't force it right now. I should just keep on practicing. The results will improve.
I went back to the usual 10 trades. Sooner or later I'll improve with my intuition, and then I'll be able to define what I'm doing in terms of univocal rules. I can't force it right now. I should just keep on practicing. The results will improve.
Yamato
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I'm ok. I just will keep on doing this 10-trades thing until I'll get good at it. The maximum loss is 70% in those 10 trades. It's all under control.
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-39,11
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-39,11
Yamato
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summary of trades and of strategy
This one went quite well:
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-41,11
I will now review all my past 10-trades of today and see if I was overall profitable. Only those where I used the stoploss from the first to the last trade, thus excluding the one where I lost my temper at the fifth trade.
Overall, in 150 trades today, which says I can handle them emotionally, here is the results, group by group:
-5500
-3500
+9000
-500
+1000
-2000
-1500
-6500
-1000
+1000
-500
-1000
-2000
0
+8500
I made 150 trades. Lost about 5000 dollars, which is close to break-even, since I was given 10k every time, so it's like turning 150k into 145k.
The biggest loss was, as expected, 4500. The biggest gain was 9000. So, there's a limit to the biggest loss, but not a limit to the biggest gain, because in theory I could let the 20% profit go on further. That's what I'll try to do next. What's good is that I can do break-even trading without worrying too much about each trade. If I worried a lot about each trade, I wouldn't have been able to do 150 trades in a few hours.
I suppose what I've done wrong where I lost was that i didn't wait for s/r to be reached or broken. If I had waited a little more, I would have had an edge. Not much, but would have been profitable. But to wait, I need a little bit more focus, and that stresses me out. I could do ten of those good very focused trades every 2 hours. About 3 times a day.
This is the strategy, at its best:
1) Buy above support if oversold (bounce)
2) Buy above resistance if not overbought (breakout)
3) Sell below support if not oversold (breakout)
4) Sell below resistance if overbought (bounce)
This one went quite well:
http://www.chartgame.com/trackrecord.cgi?8hgd2b-41,11
I will now review all my past 10-trades of today and see if I was overall profitable. Only those where I used the stoploss from the first to the last trade, thus excluding the one where I lost my temper at the fifth trade.
Overall, in 150 trades today, which says I can handle them emotionally, here is the results, group by group:
-5500
-3500
+9000
-500
+1000
-2000
-1500
-6500
-1000
+1000
-500
-1000
-2000
0
+8500
I made 150 trades. Lost about 5000 dollars, which is close to break-even, since I was given 10k every time, so it's like turning 150k into 145k.
The biggest loss was, as expected, 4500. The biggest gain was 9000. So, there's a limit to the biggest loss, but not a limit to the biggest gain, because in theory I could let the 20% profit go on further. That's what I'll try to do next. What's good is that I can do break-even trading without worrying too much about each trade. If I worried a lot about each trade, I wouldn't have been able to do 150 trades in a few hours.
I suppose what I've done wrong where I lost was that i didn't wait for s/r to be reached or broken. If I had waited a little more, I would have had an edge. Not much, but would have been profitable. But to wait, I need a little bit more focus, and that stresses me out. I could do ten of those good very focused trades every 2 hours. About 3 times a day.
This is the strategy, at its best:
1) Buy above support if oversold (bounce)
2) Buy above resistance if not overbought (breakout)
3) Sell below support if not oversold (breakout)
4) Sell below resistance if overbought (bounce)
Last edited:
Yamato
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Yamato
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Yamato
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Yamato
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As i said: i value more losing 2000 at each game and have losses under control, and knowing how much I'll lose at the most, than making 500% every once in a while, and not knowing how much I will lose if everything goes wrong. Say I make that 500% even twice in a row.
That will bring me to 50k and then to 250k. Then, most likely, out of stress or out of simply having a bad system, I will have at least one trade in which I lose 90% and another in which I lose 70%. That's for sure.
Where will that bring my 250k? First to 25k, and then to 7500. Overall, I will have lost 2500. Was it worth it? Nope. I worked my ass off and stressed out in order to bring 10k to 250k. Then I'll blow it in just 2 trades. Not worth it. And yet this is what happens with my real trading, each and every time. It's hard to grasp the mathematical implications of this for me. How just 2 bad trades could wipe out the capital I've amassed in dozens of trades.
That's why my step number one will be to learn and get used to being in control of my losses. Then, later, I'll worry about increasing my wins size and my accuracy.
That will bring me to 50k and then to 250k. Then, most likely, out of stress or out of simply having a bad system, I will have at least one trade in which I lose 90% and another in which I lose 70%. That's for sure.
Where will that bring my 250k? First to 25k, and then to 7500. Overall, I will have lost 2500. Was it worth it? Nope. I worked my ass off and stressed out in order to bring 10k to 250k. Then I'll blow it in just 2 trades. Not worth it. And yet this is what happens with my real trading, each and every time. It's hard to grasp the mathematical implications of this for me. How just 2 bad trades could wipe out the capital I've amassed in dozens of trades.
That's why my step number one will be to learn and get used to being in control of my losses. Then, later, I'll worry about increasing my wins size and my accuracy.
Last edited:
Yamato
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One small change: 10% stoploss stays, but I can exit early or late with regards to the 20% profit target. This flexibility will allow more gains.
Also: can make more than one trade per stock.
Here's the rest of the systems:
1) Buy above support if oversold (bounce)
2) Buy above resistance if not overbought (breakout)
3) Sell below support if not oversold (breakout)
4) Sell below resistance if overbought (bounce)
Also: can make more than one trade per stock.
Here's the rest of the systems:
1) Buy above support if oversold (bounce)
2) Buy above resistance if not overbought (breakout)
3) Sell below support if not oversold (breakout)
4) Sell below resistance if overbought (bounce)
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