my journal 2

[Yamato]

more on syma rc helicopter

Still talking about the syma S107 G:
http://www.xheli.com/56h-s107-gs100-red.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZI0IVAwEwE

 

[Yamato]

muni86

This guy really took it to another level, both as a movie director and as a flier:
http://www.youtube.com/user/muni86

If I make enough money with trading, quit my job, and move to the island, I will do exactly what he's doing. He's the master director of rc planes onboard cameras.

But what these guys do is much better than what I will be able to do even just indoors. They see from the airplane as it flies, not afterwards. This is just like the microsoft flight simulator I used, except it's in the real world. It would probably cost me a total of at least 300 dollars.

No wait, here he explains -- it costs 600 dollars. Can't afford it yet:

Costs:
FPV gear: approx. 600 Euro

Amazing technology, available to all of us (following youtube clips are from other users):

This is as much fun as flying except there are no risks involved.

Wow, this Crashz9 guy is making even better movies than muni86:

Except the music here really sucks.

He says he's using a T-Rex 600:
http://www.rc-fever.com/trex-600-esp-superior-combo-black-p-10510.html

Which is only 800 dollars so to speak. Definitely a rc helicopter is best for making these movies, which is what I want to make. The big problems are two. The helicopter is huge and I don't have the scenery yet: I am here in Rome and I'd get arrested immediately if I used a one-meter long helicopter in the city. Second of all I don't have a place to put it in the house. And I'd never want to leave the house. If I don't go to the island this thing is not going to be possible, not because of lack of money, but lack of space and places to fly.

Let's just pay one more tribute to muni86 and let this rest for a few months at least:

For FPV, which means First Person View, this is an excellent web site:
fpvpilot.com

Here's one last video, with the usual awful music, from the Crashz9 guy, who probably runs fpvpilot.com anyway.

 

[Yamato]

Nineteen Eighty-Four [1956]

Gonna watch a quick movie, since everyone is telling me about this book (I was watching Michael Palin on tv just now, and I thought of the movie Brazil, and that's another way I thought about it), which right now I don't want to read because I don't read books anymore:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_(1956_film)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plmV3oOHRZk

There's a problem. There was tv thing that came out even earlier, so it is probably more faithful, so I have to watch that first:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four_(TV_programme)

Wrong again: first of all it's boring. And second of all, there's another one that preceded it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1984_(1953_TV_program)

But I can't find it. Besides it's so boring... I am not watching any of them, nor reading the book. I've already watched the movie Brazil and I get the idea.

Instead I am going to watch this, which is somewhat related (I got sidetracked on youtube):

This is great. Jesse Ventura is an intelligent person, despite appearances.

 

[Yamato]

John Lennon - The Last Interview, 12/8/1980 Part 4

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_John_Lennon#8_December_1980

On the morning of 8 December 1980, photographer Annie Leibovitz went to Ono and Lennon's apartment at 2:00pm to do a photo shoot for Rolling Stone magazine.[2] Leibovitz promised Lennon that a photo with Ono would make the front cover of the magazine, but initially tried to get a picture with just Lennon alone.[3] Leibovitz recalled that "nobody wanted [Ono] on the cover".[4] Lennon then insisted that both he and his wife be on the cover, and after taking the pictures, Leibovitz left their apartment at 3:30pm.[2] After the photo shoot, Lennon gave what would be his last interview to a San Francisco DJ, Dave Sholin, for a music show on the RKO Radio Network.[5]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bretv0uRTs


Leibovitz's portrait of Lennon and Ono, taken 8 December 1980


Lennon signing Chapman's Double Fantasy album a few hours before the shooting

 

[bedsit]

Re: muni86




Hi Travis.
I was expecting that one to crush into the tower in a spectacular way - missed that 'almost' from the title.

 

[Yamato]

Yeah, beautiful video, and the music is right for it.

I can't believe they let him fly around that tower without arresting him:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donauturm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furious_Angels#Clubbed_to_Death

 

[YouAreNotFree]

The Conspiracy series is very good.

The authorities flexed their corrupt muscles on the makers of the show and got one particular episode effectively banned (too much truth you see). It can still be seen on the web though.

Check out 'TheAlexJonesChannel' on YT too if you appreciate that kind of stuff.

 

[Yamato]

Yes, thank you for the information.

By Alex Jones I have seen this:
http://www.letmewatchthis.ch/watch-4761-TerrorStorm-A-History-of-Government-Sponsored-Terrorism

There's many more here:
Alex Jones

Yeah, I'll have to watch them, even though sometimes it gets frustrating, because it's true but depressing.

 

[Yamato]

FPV dog-fight

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FsnR-N4_EI

It doesn't seem as much fun as the combat flight simulator but it's the real thing. I really wonder what he's shooting and if there isn't any danger of shooting bystanders.

Now this is really the FPV director of directors, better than the two previously mentioned and posted (muni86 and crashz9):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtFlKvN-iFo

These folks definitely have a lot of money and free time on their hands. This one is albertocvr:
http://www.youtube.com/user/albertocvr

An even better artist than the other two guys, besides being an rc flier. Here he is using an oktokopter:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVdwGu9tjaQ

It seems that all the best movies are made using an oktokopter. Here's one made by another user:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvGV7kuMSS4

It's interesting how these people combine filming and flying skills and music skills to come up with something so beautiful, like a movie.

I suppose I did the same with my systems, by mixing my language skills (I am Italian) with my math skills with my trading skills with my social skills (making friends with the people who helped me in this long journey). But the product is not as beautiful -- it is only beautiful to me.

Albertocvr is here, too:
http://www.microcoptervideo.com

This other guy filming in the alps is this guy:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Psychopax

The oktokopter looks like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCXyhRBW3jY


This is a feat equivalent to building 120 systems on one excel workbook. Psychopax's work on his flying is as dedicated as mine has been on my systems: probably he has no life either. Look at all the work he's had to do to get his thing going:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4OpaZqsQ9E

This world is something I want to get in, but very slowly, because it seems like a lot of work is coming my way.

For example this Psychopax's film seems made from a real plane, by its quality, then at the end you find out it's just a regular rc plane:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsdiNMXtXpk

This guy is a goddamn engineer:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZfXfRjYPHM

It reminds me of this user here, who recently told me "you can't run your systems from home". He didn't really take the time to explain what he meant, but he was quite convinced -- he was positive that it was like he said. Instead, with years of dedication, I am running my "oktokopter" systems from home, with 120 "rotors" on them, all on one excel workbook. And there's no crashes. I suppose it's like that famous quote by I don't remember who, that said "everyone knows that something is impossible, until there comes someone who doesn't know it, and he makes it happen". This also applies to all those people who told me all these years "it's impossible to make money with trading systems, because if it were, everyone would be doing it".

So is driving the car like schumacher: possible. And yet everyone isn't doing it. So is running like Carl Lewis: possible. These things are all possible, but they're not easy. That's all. That is why I feel insulted by the fact that they didn't believe I would be able to do it, because it was granted that it was possible (well, not as much as the other things I mentioned, because among my friends and relatives we don't know any traders who do what I do profitably).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpMHO0P_jL0

I am not sure who's better between albertocvr and psychopax. The first is a better film-maker, uses music always, makes a refined final product all the time. The second one is probably a top engineer, by what I can see. But alberto has a bit more in terms of that final touch for making movies.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpqeBp0kFSo

Also look at this one, not made from an oktokopter, yet just as good. He makes it good and appealing, no matter what it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjpLZp81Bb0

Look here -- alberto has definitely turned pro (whereas psychopax still hasn't):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iuctPG98xI

I mean - albertocvr is probably running a small company and selling his work, turning it from a hobby into a job. I mean this final clip I posted above is a pleasure to watch, from all points of view well made, and it's like an ad he made for himself, showing he can practically do anything. I mean, this guy can turn any subject and view into an engrossing movie, just with one camera, one oktokopter and especially with his film-editing skills.

I don't know if I have what it takes to venture in this area, so I'll start small. With one 99 cents rc submarine and the syma elicopter.

I found out it's spelled octocopter:
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/robotics-software/quadcopter-hexacopter-octocopter-uavs

However, there's so many german-speaking people in this field that even non-german speakers often say oktokopter.

In this video they show all the features including a GPS that makes it stay in the place you tell it to stay, despite any winds, and similarly, if you push it away it will return to its original position:
http://vimeo.com/6194911

Don't miss this link to the last video, right in the line above this, because it is a scientific approach to the oktokopter. Well, in this case it's an HexaKopter, but it's the same principle basically.

Hey.

Believe it or not... the police are using it already:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjnQQNfLxtI

And, let's not forget these guys, even though with different UAVs:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKTTzE3Og8o

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_on_O3zFP0E

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3imzOQZonQ

 

[Yamato]

big week ahead

You saw the last detailed and extensive weekly update: things are going well, and will be going a lot better soon (systems/contracts will be increased soon).

A little bit at a time my life seems to be taking a turn in a better direction. And my two journals and my four readers here are witnesses of the changes that took place during these two years.

I have stopped my compulsive gambling (you can see thousands of posts about that problem on "my journal" and "my journal 2").

As that stopped, I've also stopped blowing out accounts, and getting poorer and poorer (still repaying a 7000 euros debt with my bank, which is also my employer). Some money is actually being made, and I've allowed myself to spend a little bit of it (about 200 dollars), to start changing my life:

1) I bought rc submarine, rc helicopter, 2 mini cameras (to be attached to the helicopter or used at work to find out which cleaning lady messes up my keyboard and mouse every day -- without cleaning anything), in order to make myself stay away from my laptop: still at home, but at least staring 3 meters far, rather than 30 centimeters (separating me from the computer screen) like I've been doing until now, all day long, at work and at home.

2) I bought an internet stick (for around 80 dollars), to take care of my 3 highschool friends, who are coming to visit me in September. We'll spend 3 weeks at the island, where I had to rent my aunt's house (but that wasn't paid from trading profits), so I can stay away from the german guy who keeps on making me wash dishes while he plays guitar (he'll be downstairs with the korean guy, in my mother's house).

So now, when the new internet stick will be delivered to this house (during the same week i'll also receive a submarine, a helicopter, 2 cameras), I will have 3 way of connecting to the overseas server: regular fixed connection, and two internet sticks. There's no way I will ever be disconnected.

Also, once the foreigners leave and I come back to rome, I will still have those 2 sticks, but the latest I bought just now is not a monthly rate subscription, but only 3 months-long and then you can renew it, month by month, as you need it. Anyway, that is from a different ISP company so it will be useful if I ever move to the island for good, because it's near france, and all internet connections are pretty bad in that area.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YCGtT_FRYg


So. Mentally, and soon physically, I am starting to move further and further away from the screen, at least that is my project, for the sake of my eyes. I want to spend more hours in the bathtub, and on the sofa, while I watch tv and fly the indoor helicopter.

Then, one day, when I quit my job and move away from rome, the big step into the outside world and outdoor activities, especially swimming.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HPtW2FyBBk

If I see Raphael, I will give him your message.

http://www.subzin.com/s/If+I+see+Raphael,+I+will+give+him+your+message

http://www.letmewatchthis.ch/watch-1075-Being-There



Let me just revisit the past and see what it was like, just to feel good about the state i am in today:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/72598-my-journal-177.html#post1013228

This was precisely 19 months ago. It was an entirely different situation than now. I marked some comments on the attached image:



Things have clearly changed. Instead of writing those posts, I post ascending equity curves. I cannot say yet that my dream has come true (I can't quit my job yet), but it's getting closer, month after month.

Needless to say I thank myself for this masterpiece of a journal, and work of art I have written here, consistent, persistent, coherent, thoroughly documented, explained in detail. And I thank trade2win for this great opportunity of being able to speak freely and off-topic (if we consider the topic to be trading) without any censorship or pressure. This is a unique place. I also thank trade2win for the feature that allows me to put assholes in my ignore list thereby keeping them from posting here and discouraging my sincere posts. Thanks to this combination of factors, this journal brought the improvements that are evident by comparing the latest weekly report to the compulsive gambling posts of 19 months ago.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1EC4om5VV4

So next week. So. Next week I'll have delivered here: sumbarine, helicopter, camera 1, camera 2, internet stick. Hopefully the doorman won't keep anything for himself.

Then I have to start playing with these things, which will keep me busy, away from the computer, which is what I want.

Then. It's the last week of the month. If it's positive (and it's about time -- no money was made for 2 months almost), the drawdown might end, and some scaling up will take place. That means more profit, and that means more 99 cents submarines.

I talked to my cousin. He said he bought an excellent violin from china for 100 pounds. From these guys:
http://shop.ebay.co.uk/yitamusic/m.html

He says it's worth thousands, but they sell it for just 100 gbp. So he bought another one as well. It's the same exact thing with my submarine. Had I bought it here, I'd have paid it 40 euros. Instead I got it for 99 cents.

Oh, no way... now I found a violin for 1 euro (from the same reliable yita company):
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/T19-Violi...reich_und_Zupfinstrumente&hash=item23129b2b62

I am not going to buy it this time, because the neighbours would complain. But who knows, maybe in the future, when I'll move to the island and have no neighbours. I am a renaissance man, so I have to play some instrument sooner or later. I could resume the piano, but only if I can get a piano for 1 euro.

Damn, it's not fair. Look at these guys: they're giving stuff away for free.



There's several pianos for 1 cent, and no delivery costs, because you must go there and get it yourself. There's some generous people on ebay. But I can't buy it because I don't have time to practice it.

 

[Yamato]

Very, very, very fast Turbine powered RC Jet

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTHWBSluUjU

I wouldn't be surprised if these people didn't need a license to fly this weapon.

 

[Yamato]

the fascinating world of computers and rc planes

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRDYdZxkXnQ

 

[Yamato]

something will happen

After having ordered 5 items over the internet, plus today there's trading, something will await me for sure when I'll get home in less than 2 hours.

Either a package or at least some profit -- also considering there's been 26 days of drawdown, and the backtested results say there's going to be 40 days at the most. Even considering we'll do 50% worse, no one is expecting the max drawdown days to happen immediately. I'd say by the end of this week we should be getting out of the drawdown (which means surpassing the previous June 16th peak).

So, today there will be package or profit.

Yesterday I was talking to my engineer friend, and he was showing me the problems of setting up a camera on the helicopter, especially if we want the camera to send the video back to a computer, while the helicopter is flying.

We looked at a lot of solutions: IP cameras, among the others. IP cameras would be perfect for a computer but their speed in transmitting data and their size are still not good enough.

So we've gone back to the analogic field, which means we'll need a converter.

Then I was looking at this solution here:
http://www.geeks.com/details.asp?invtid=MINI-WIRELESS-CAM&cat=VID

Which is very cheap, so ideal, but there's 2 problems. First problem is that this video tells me there's inteference from the remote control:

Second problem is that the helicopter is only 34 grams:
http://www.xheli.com/newsy3chs1mi.html

And yes, the camera is only 9 grams...
http://www.geeks.com/details.asp?invtid=MINI-WIRELESS-CAM&cat=VID

...but it needs a 9 volt battery to really be "wireless" (otherwise they speak of using the adapter), and a nine volt battery means this:



Which means it weighs exactly as much as the helicopter (more with the camera itself). If you don't use it, the camera will last maybe a few seconds or nothing at all even (I can't tell you precisely what I have construed from all the stuff I've seen on the web).

So thank god I didn't buy yesterday when this engineer friend told me to go ahead with it. I won't trust him again.

Now I am investigating the flytron.com solution, for which I will need my friend's help again:
1) FC-480 camera
2) FTX-50 transmitter
3) 1S LiPO battery and battery recharger
4) 4C Wireless USB 2.4ghz Camera RECEIVER PC dvr RECORDING

This way maybe I'll spend less than 200 dollars, and keep things small. I don't want too much equipment in the house.

Now, #1, #2, and #3 will clearly work. I need to focus more on #4, the receiver. Here's some more good links from ebay for my
USB DVR Receiver and 2.4Ghz receiver searches. They're not exactly the same search but sometimes the resulting products are the same.

For example this would be ideal, but there's always the 9 volt battery problem:
http://cgi.ebay.com/2-4G-Wireless-U...148?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item3f04da1a84

So the receiver is just what I want, but the transmitter is the big problem. Here's another example:
http://cgi.ebay.com/2-4G-Wireless-U...-/250859739922?pt=UK_CCTV&hash=item3a6867db12

Camera
　
4 channels selectable to avoid interference
The physical size of camera is really small
Using Pinhole Spy Lens
It can be installed in different locations. The mount point is included
Powered by a 9v battery (Battery clip included) or a 9v power adaptor (not included)
This wireless camera set can be applied to various areas, such as Surveillance for Shops, Factories, Warehouses, HOME - Monitoring Children, Elders, Visitors etc

It'd be perfect, except for the 9 volt battery problem.

So far the best seems to be: do step 1, 2, 3 like flytron.com recommends and buy this USD DVR receiver separately:
http://cgi.ebay.com/Fluency-Live-2-...664?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item1e65877790



But first I really have to make sure it works the way i expect it to. Does it really read the signal transmitted from the 2.4 ghz transmitter? I don't know anything about this stuff, but I'll try to learn more about this "Fluency Live 2.4G Wireless Camera Receiver 4CH USB DVR" and how it works. Because right now it seems too good to be true.

USB DVR receiver

The next step is to see on fpv forums if anyone uses it.

My new excellent search string is "usb receiver for fpv flying":
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=usb+receiver+for+fpv+flying&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

Also, "wifi receiver" is a good string.

But I have no found no good links so far. The string is good, but no one talks about it.

I need to study this much more. Especially I need my berated friend.

[...]

I am back at home and received no packages. The doorman walked away when I got there -- maybe he's hiding something. Hmm, I am just being paranoid.

Anyway: no money was made by my systems, nor any parcels were delivered. So we could say that so far I was wrong and today nothing at all happened.

Let's get back on ebay:
http://cgi.ebay.com/USB-DVR-RECEIVE...922?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item415180cd62

There are no doubts here that this thing works and it's very simple. Read this:

Used with USB Receiver you will be able to monitor up to 4 different cameras on your PC.

The picture they use is unequivocal:



All you need is one of these "USB Receivers" and you're fine. No cables or other things. This is very interesting.

I really need to find the company manufacturin this receiver and then I'll find out how it works (as far as I can understand) and then maybe I will be confident enough to buy it -- provided the doorman doesn't keep my stuff.

Here they call it "Wireless USB DVR":
http://cgi.ebay.com/2-4GHz-4-CH-Cha...972?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item519125edac

Many different names for it. "USB" is always used though.



After this feat, will I defeat cancer or anything worthwhile? Not. I just want to keep myself busy, because boredom is worse.

I am going to find it on youtube.

Here are the elements of my search string, and I should combine them:
1) USB
2) 2.4 ghz
3) receiver
4) wifi
5) DVR
6) wireless
7) motion detection [added later]

They're sometimes similar but never synonyms.

Perfect. I stuck them all into just 1 search string and searched for images on google:
http://www.google.com/search?num=10...&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=fi

Ok, finally I found a univocal code for the product, which might lead me to the manufacturer and more information on the product:
http://www.szprice.com/products/4-Channel-2-4GHz-Wireless-USB-DVR-601WS_4671.html

4-Channel 2.4GHz Wireless USB DVR 601WS

Ok, now there's even a .rar file download:
http://www.estcctv.com/digital-video-recorder/es-601ws-digital-video-recorder

Bingo! There's manual, drivers and more. 20 megabytes of stuff.

Really strange world. There's one single product, made by some guy in asia, and it's sold under 50 different names from 50 different companies. And there's no way to find out who the one author is. I hope this will never happen to my work.

Ok, I looked at the .rar file and maybe the company is "Syntek Semiconductor Co., Ltd.". Yet I could not find the product on their web site:
http://www.stk.com.tw

Ok, here's the most unequivocal ad I have seen so far:
http://www.alibaba.com/product-gs/347807114/2_4GHz_Wireless_Inspection_hidden_Camera.html

There's the camera and there's the USB DVR receiver:



Anyway, I have come to the conclusion that these guys make the final product and Syntex only makes a part of it:
http://www.estcctv.com/digital-video-recorder/es-601ws-digital-video-recorder

Anyway, I have yet to find someone on the web talking about this product or making a video and showing me how it works. Everyone sells it for 30 dollars. I still don't have anyone commenting on it.

Ok, I found it here -- that's one step forward:
http://www.myflytech.com/en/ProductDetails.aspx?pid=74&typeId=16

Except that web site is from asia, so it is not a guarantee. I need a US FPV web site.

Ok, here's a variation of it, sold on a web site from the US -- better:
http://www.jlmmerchandise.com/wireless-home-security-camera.html

Now here they say it's made by Yafee Electronics Ltd.:
http://www.alibaba.com/product-gs/466371468/2_4GHz_Wireless_USB_Receiver_DVR.html

Quick Details
Brand Name: Yafee
Model Number: O-620
Place of Origin: Guangdong China (Mainland)
Receiving Frequency: ISM 2,400MHz~2,483MHz
Dimensions(W*L*H): 10*2.8*1.5CM (Antenna Exclud...
Weight: 41g

I know what I want to buy. I don't know where I want to buy it from - whether from ebay, alibaba, or somewhere else. I wonder what my engineer friend will say.

I trust these guys better:
http://www.estcctv.com/services/demo-center

Eye Sight guys, they have a factory and pictures of the workers:
http://www.estcctv.com/aboutus/

The other yafee guys... i don't know.

The problem is Eye Sight doesn't sell, but Yafee does. But they sell on Alibaba. At the same time everyone sells this product on ebay for 30 dollars, from all sides of the world.

I still want to find some feedback and videos on if and how it works.

Now I am searching for every link on this page:
http://fpvpilot.com/sitemap.aspx

And inserting the search term "usb" and similar.

In the meanwhile I found that ready-made fpv equipment is just 200 dollars, but i won't give up on my quest, at the cost of spending more and doing it by myself. The value of this work I am doing is that at the end i will know what I am doing, much more than if I just bought a ready-to-go thing. And maybe I'll also save some money. Besides, the ready-made stuff is too heavy for my syma 30 grams helicopter.

That's it. I can't go any further without my engineer friend.

 

[bbmac]

Re: something will happen

Intersting stuff..it may be just a matter of semantics re the language you use but just beacuse the backtested results say 40days max doesn't mean to say that the forward results will show max 40 days. The 40days metric is useful in understandinng something about the typical distribution of your trading edge over those 8years. A question - does the 40days max relate to the exact portfolio/mix of systems that are being traded or to the portfolio as a whole ?

(the 8 years stat came from your post before you edited it ? I think.)

Your feeling that '....by the end of this week we should be getting out of the drawdown...' - is that just a feeling or is there evidence that more often than not this begins to happen in prevvious drawdowns ? Ie what is the average peiod of backtested drawdowns and is this current period above or below that average period ?

Thanks

BBmac.

... or at least some profit -- also considering there's been 26 days of drawdown, and the backtested results say there's going to be 40 days at the most. Even considering we'll do 50% worse, no one is expecting the max drawdown days to happen immediately. I'd say by the end of this week we should be getting out of the drawdown (which means surpassing the previous June 16th peak).

 

[Yamato]

Re: something will happen

Intersting stuff..it may be just a matter of semantics re the language you use but just beacuse the backtested results say 40days max doesn't mean to say that the forward results will show max 40 days. The 40days metric is useful in understandinng something about the typical distribution of your trading edge over those 8years. A question - does the 40days max relate to the exact portfolio/mix of systems that are being traded or to the portfolio as a whole ?

(the 8 years stat came from your post before you edited it ? I think.)

Your feeling that '....by the end of this week we should be getting out of the drawdown...' - is that just a feeling or is there evidence that more often than not this begins to happen in prevvious drawdowns ? Ie what is the average peiod of backtested drawdowns and is this current period above or below that average period ?

Thanks

BBmac.

Replying as I read.

It refers to the "systems that are being traded".

This current period is definitely above the average backtested drawdown, given that to have a "drawdown" all you need is 1 unprofitable day. As a consequence... I did not check it (it would be a good thing to do it, but I am too tired to do it now), but, as a consequence, the drawdowns of 1 day, 2 days, 3 days... and so on, are bringing the average drawdown to a value by all means and guesstimates lower than 26 days, which is the present length up to today. I mean, look: the max length is 40 days. The minimum length is 1 day, so I am positive we're above average.

Then, if you were to require the "drawdown" to be above x days before being called a "drawdown", my answer would not be right and I would have no guesstimates good enough to reply to your question, but then such a definition of "drawdown" would not be right either. I mean -- the assumption is that a drawdown happens as soon as you have one unprofitable day.

 

[Yamato]

ok, you win

Ok, after working 3 hours on the camera to mount on the helicopter, I could not say I was too tired to do this 5-minutes homework.

Here it is:



95% of drawdowns are below 20 days.

No, wait: this is all wrong. Obviously it is also counting intermediate counts, such as counting 38 and 39 days for a drawdown which will then go on to last a total of 40 days. I need to redo it and do it right.

Ok, I found out how to do it. I will use this formula:
=IF(AND(E7=0,E6>0),E6,"")

I have a column full of formulas that count the drawdown days, as in: 1, 2, 3, 4 and then "0" when it is over, because the previous peak got surpassed. This is the formula they use:
=IF(D7<>0,E6+1,0)

Now I added another column to the right of those formulas, that says "if now the drawdown is at zero and the previous cell above was not zero, then that must have been as long as the previous drawdown lasted".

By the way I will make such a formula permanent and then also plot a permanent pivot table from it. This is very useful. Thanks for your question.

Here's the final outcome:



Now things are much different, but even better, because 26 days of drawdown is worse than 99% of the previous drawdowns.

P.S.:
I hope you'll come back and modify your post and comment again, because in the meanwhile I updated my post. Unfortunately you were too quick to reply and I was too slow to edit.

 

[bbmac]

Re: ok, you win

Thanks for the effort, good to know more...the more you know about your trading edge-the fewer surprises it can throw up - this is particularly important when discretionary trading but useful too on mechanical.

Using that stat (95% of drawdowns are historically less than 25 days) the current 26day drawdown (ie a period of 1 day or more where an equl/ new account hi has not been made) had a 5% chance of occuring..and I point this out beacuse it is useful to see that something that is improbable is not impossible, and can and probably will happen, and is a lesson for all traders.

G/L

Ok, after working 3 hours on the camera to mount on the helicopter, I could not say I was too tired to do this 5-minutes homework.

Here it is:

View attachment 119374

95% of drawdowns are below 20 days.

 

[bbmac]

Yeh I just re-read the post re drawdown table and the new table- thanks for that.

So this present drawdown is effectively a 1 in 100 event based on a partly live forward tested and mostly historically back tested sample...in a sense it emphasises the point even more - ie that a 1 in 100 event whilst improbable is not impossible and can happen.

What is also interesting is your defintion of drawdown ie the time (greater than or equal to 1day) between the last account hi and a new account hi, ie that within the period of drawdown as defined there have been winning days but that overall the peak-valley drawdown is still extant, ie the drawdown may have lasted 26days but no new valley low has been created since day x.

I suppose my supplementary questions (and given the point in paragraph above) are:

1. Are you concerned that such a 1 in 100 event has occurred ?
2. Would you have been more concerned if the valley had continued going lower?
3. What % of historical maximum drawdown in money terms has the current peak-valley drawdown been ?

Thanks

BBmac.

 

[Yamato]

Replying as I read.

Well, yes, you understood my definition of drawdown correctly. But I am surprised you think it's original, because I thought it was the norm. I wrote a post about it here, after doing some research and thinking:
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/trading-journals/85510-my-journal-2-a-244.html#post1563946

Regarding your questions.

As I agreed with meanreversion, and we agree on this regarding our (different) systems, we're both expecting our systems to do 50% worse than they did before in terms of money (and drawdown accordingly, but I couldn't tell you how to measure that), so that 1% in 8 years event was actually a 2% in 8 years event, if not even more (I don't know how to adjust my expectations, but you get my point). So, I am not worried, also because the 13k was not exceeded during these 26 days.

In terms of money expected, i was expecting so many thousands per month in the past year, and instead I only got half of that. That's why it's in line with my lowered expectations.

Yes, I would have been more concerned if the valley had continued going lower. Of course.

Oh, it was 8k instead of 13k, so it was about 60%. Expecting things in the future to be worse than in the past, I would be ok with a drawdown of 20k.

 

[bbmac]

Thanks for the reply.

I actually agree with your definition of drawdown...I just found it interesting beacuse there a lot of folk that believe the drawdown period has ended when the valley low is not exceeded (ie before a new a/c hi/peak is created.)

If I have this right, the current drawdown valley is 8k and the backtested drawdown max over 8 years is 13k ( so 8 as a % of 13 is around 60% [61.5%,] ) as you say in your post above.

You say that you would be 'ok' with a drawdown of 20k, and althoughn that would be around 150% of the current maximum experienced in 8 years backtesting (13k) as a % of the current last a/c hi (around 26.5k ish) it would be an actual drawdown of 75%, and would actually mean that you have to recover 307% of the remaining a/c balance to get back to the last a/c hi. Are you sure that you would be comfortable with such a monetary drawdown at this stage given this stat ?

Thanks

BBmac.