Gold at this level is looking like an opportunity. The lira issue will subside and before this all hit the fan, the dollar was struggling to break 95 on the dxy. So unless things escelate massively, I am looking to get in here. The dollar is only being supported now by this issue and I can't see any fundamental reason for it to continue higher.
Long gold for a swing at 1192.71
Long gold for a swing at 1192.71
I have been thinking about how i am going to start sizing my trades in the near future. I have given myself a year to see if i can produce a positive expectancy and have surpassed my expectations. I do not want to get ahead of myself and claim victory because i feel i still have a long way to go. In terms of sizing my trades i have been looking at implementing the Kelly criterion but with leverage changes it is not going to work even at 1/4 Kelly. So based on my calculations due to leverage changes it has to be 1/13 Kelly. I chose this because it is approximately 70% less which is the same reduction in leverage where leverage was 100:1 and is now 30:1. The formula for this is
(win rate / risk_reward_ratio ) * 0.076 (which is 1/13th)
example:
win rate 70%
risk reward ratio 1.5
(70 /1.5) * 0.076 = 3.5% of capital risk per trade
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by the way while i was typing this there was German and EU data released and better than expected. Executed a trade off it that's currently 13 pips up with a BE stop.
(win rate / risk_reward_ratio ) * 0.076 (which is 1/13th)
example:
win rate 70%
risk reward ratio 1.5
(70 /1.5) * 0.076 = 3.5% of capital risk per trade
------------
by the way while i was typing this there was German and EU data released and better than expected. Executed a trade off it that's currently 13 pips up with a BE stop.
that trade was stopped out - not surprising given the current sentiment out there. Was worth a go given the data was better and the $ being so crowded. Gold position is sitting on 27 pips in the green at the moment and hopefully investors will at least offset their safe haven $ positioning with some gold to drive it up.
Got nailed on gold for a 30 pop slap.
Well swing trades have never been my strongest and in fact I have a 5h!t record trying it over the last ten months. I am good at sentiment shifts and news so I am going to focus just on that and leave swing trading aside.
Been thinking what I might have done differently. It might have something to do with sovereign debt across emerging economies with US rates on the increase. Have a look at the attached charts showing rates for some emerging economies next to Turkey.
I need to look into previous correlations with the dollar and rates against gold with Yen and Swiss Frank. I should see when there was risk off events which will also separate and isolate times when there was this inverse dollar gold correlation. I know the fed are raising rates but with all the global tensions in full swing and the double deficit and insurmountable debt, it isn't exactly the safest of places to be. Do you know it costs about 1200 an ounce on average to mine gold. Right now miners are losing money.
Been fairly busy at work so havent had much time to trade which is why updates have been slacking.
Well swing trades have never been my strongest and in fact I have a 5h!t record trying it over the last ten months. I am good at sentiment shifts and news so I am going to focus just on that and leave swing trading aside.
Been thinking what I might have done differently. It might have something to do with sovereign debt across emerging economies with US rates on the increase. Have a look at the attached charts showing rates for some emerging economies next to Turkey.
I need to look into previous correlations with the dollar and rates against gold with Yen and Swiss Frank. I should see when there was risk off events which will also separate and isolate times when there was this inverse dollar gold correlation. I know the fed are raising rates but with all the global tensions in full swing and the double deficit and insurmountable debt, it isn't exactly the safest of places to be. Do you know it costs about 1200 an ounce on average to mine gold. Right now miners are losing money.
Been fairly busy at work so havent had much time to trade which is why updates have been slacking.
Nowler
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How does this "war" between Turkey and the U.S. impact your trading? Or are you not interested in it? I ask because I see France are holding a meeting with Turkey about the debacle (not that this means a while lot) but from what I see here from my seat at the kiddies table, the US is being a d1ck to everyone... slapping tariffs all Willie nillie.
Do the U.S. actions have a high risk of backfiring on them and subsequently piledriving the USD. Or do they have a lot of leverage over all these economies which the tariffs are against?
Interested to hear your take on this
Do the U.S. actions have a high risk of backfiring on them and subsequently piledriving the USD. Or do they have a lot of leverage over all these economies which the tariffs are against?
Interested to hear your take on this
Hey, sorry for the late reply
The Turkey USA situation changed sentiment to being a risk off tone and although I didn't have time to really get involved due to work, it would have been a case of following safe haven flows. All other economical news takes a side step in these situations. In this instance the biggest winner has been the dollar with rising yields and solid data supporting a continuation thereof. I made an early miss judgment and looked at gold and should have followed the money.
The Turkey USA situation changed sentiment to being a risk off tone and although I didn't have time to really get involved due to work, it would have been a case of following safe haven flows. All other economical news takes a side step in these situations. In this instance the biggest winner has been the dollar with rising yields and solid data supporting a continuation thereof. I made an early miss judgment and looked at gold and should have followed the money.
Hi FXX, good to see you are still posting. It took me a while to workout how to swinger trade successful. Since I have been trading full time, I use all methods to trade, but mostly prefer short term trades on time frames from 1 min to a few days. For example I was in and out of the AUD/USD yesterday, trading it both long and short for nice profit of around 4.7K NZ. Its not easy trading this way, but some days you can when the market conditions are right. Its good to see you are working out what trading style/method works best for you.
Hi Bluedog
I am pretty much bang on with you on that front. I have officially given up trying to make swing trading work for the foreseeable future. There are juat too many factors that can change sentiment enough to either take a trade out or prolong the time in the market. The later in that statement is for me a key element because swing trading doesn't make financial sense to me. You enter a trade that can last several weeks or months where you are likely paying rollover for a profit that can be made over several sessions day trading.
So I am focusing on pure news and sentiment driven trades going forward where I seem to be developing an edge. I love this type of trading because you get immediate feedback from the market and there is generally plenty of time between trades giving time to do research. I am still far away from your league and have been wondering the levels of stress you might experience contrasted with stress I currently experience from my day job. I suspect its a different kind of stress even though I am also self employed.
I will be ramping up sizing in the near future so have interesting times ahead. Going to be posting more on that and rehashing my approach in this blog to really nail down that process to be second nature.
What's the general gossip that side with the new ban on foreign buyers?
From what I have read, the new ban on foreign buyers could have a small impact on new house building projects as NZ lacks capital for investment, and its risky for companies to under take building projects as the bankers often require presales which often come from foreign buyers. It will be interesting to see the full effects of the new ban in due course. However stats show that overseas buyers were only around 3% of the market. Australian and Singaporean investors are exempt from the ban due to free trade rules.
Hi FXX,
When you make a trade how long do you expect to wait before your thesis is proved right or wrong. Is it trade dependent for example new coming out at 12pm for example you set the trade at lets just say 11:55? or is it more like on a Monday you make a trade you expect to play out over the week maybe on a Thursday?
The trades are initiated off a catalyst whether it be a scheduled release or unscheduled. As soon as I get the data and discover an opportunity then I enter at market. I'll give a trade 20 mins to work out or move my stop to break even if the trade is around 15 pips away from entry. If the market is less than 10 pips I'll just close it even if it is a loss.
Its relatively easy to spot. There is generally a catalyst that is unscheduled that kicks it off. If you don't spot it in the news then you can still catch it by correlating markets and specific currencies. Watching Yen, and Swiss Frank for strength (sometimes its the dollar but it depends on the situation), and high yielding currencies weakening (money leaving riskier emerging markets). You will see stock markets will be a sea of red. The opportunity lies with pairing safe haven currencies with a counterpart that has weak sentiment on the day. The more negative the sentiment the bigger the potential in the trade.Thanks for the reply mate.
I was reading a little about risk on and risk of the other day but I obviously don't remember much of it because I have to go Google it again
This could drive sentiment through Asia session and tomorrow. It puts Trump right in the spotlight.
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/co...mp-directed-him-to-commit-a-crime-00-20180821
https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/co...mp-directed-him-to-commit-a-crime-00-20180821