My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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It's the best prawn recipe out there. I have yet to taste a prawn as good in a restaurant. Got it from an old school fisherman way down south.

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FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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Been on leave the last 2 days in case anyone is wondering why there are no updates. I see a few good opportunities we're missed, some today with brexit. Back at it from tomorrow.

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FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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So on the cards for this morning is UK inflation. Yesterday's vote to defeat the remainers custom union ammendment would have caused another election if May lost. That had a short term overshadowing effect on the BOE upcoming hike. Today the question is, will yesterday's house of commons continue to overshadow or will the market realise that if the vote had gone the other way, the chaos would have been turned up several notches. For this reason I feel that the outcome was the best in terms of stability and certainty and focus should be realigned with CPI and BOE. Shorting sterling would have had more steam yesterday and it didn't and there was a strong rejection of price at 0.89


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Atilla

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Nov 15, 2006
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So on the cards for this morning is UK inflation. Yesterday's vote to defeat the remainers custom union ammendment would have caused another election if May lost. That had a short term overshadowing effect on the BOE upcoming hike. Today the question is, will yesterday's house of commons continue to overshadow or will the market realise that if the vote had gone the other way, the chaos would have been turned up several notches. For this reason I feel that the outcome was the best in terms of stability and certainty and focus should be realigned with CPI and BOE. Shorting sterling would have had more steam yesterday and it didn't and there was a strong rejection of price at 0.89


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I think you have your finger on the pulse there.

Market dreads a Brexit and will dump the pound effectively factoring in future potential for UK trade.

Raising interest rates to stall importing inflationary pressures will be the only option left to the BoE and Carney has referred to this on a number of occasions.

Alternatively, any softening or abortion of Brexit will strengthen the pound.


I can't see Eurosceptics or Brexiteers hanging up their boots so onwards and forwards with greater uncertainty as exit date approaches UK at warp speed.

Brexiteers have lost an edge imo. Time will tell. I'm still feeling bullish on the pound. (y)
 

FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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I think you have your finger on the pulse there.

Market dreads a Brexit and will dump the pound effectively factoring in future potential for UK trade.

Raising interest rates to stall importing inflationary pressures will be the only option left to the BoE and Carney has referred to this on a number of occasions.

Alternatively, any softening or abortion of Brexit will strengthen the pound.


I can't see Eurosceptics or Brexiteers hanging up their boots so onwards and forwards with greater uncertainty as exit date approaches UK at warp speed.

Brexiteers have lost an edge imo. Time will tell. I'm still feeling bullish on the pound.
I read an article a few days back that the UK is 30 percent undervalued according to the big mac index against the dollar. Brexit has certainly offered many trading opportunities as has Trump. Today is sales data and I expect the weather to affect the numbers In a positive way.

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barjon

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May 6, 2003
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I read an article a few days back that the UK is 30 percent undervalued according to the big mac index against the dollar. Brexit has certainly offered many trading opportunities as has Trump. Today is sales data and I expect the weather to affect the numbers In a positive way.

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Up until a year or two ago ftse had spent a long time marching in step with Dow at around half of Dow (I was doing some decent pair trading then). On that basis ftse should be around 12000 or so today :eek:
 

Atilla

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Nov 15, 2006
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I read an article a few days back that the UK is 30 percent undervalued according to the big mac index against the dollar. Brexit has certainly offered many trading opportunities as has Trump. Today is sales data and I expect the weather to affect the numbers In a positive way.

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Only way for Sterling to rise against anything let's say rest of the world or any index are;


UK inflation < Rest of World
UK B o P > Rest of World ie eXports > iMports
UK has +ve Hot capital flows
UK Interest Rates > Rest of World (this is same as +Hot K flows)

Anything else is just goodwill opinion factored in based on some expectations theorem at a guess. :whistling


Considering we have a positive flow in Services with finance being a big contributor it is not unrealistic for the market to factor this in thus a deteriorating BoP is very much a high probability and thus the big hit on the pound seen already by as much as up to 20+ % already.
 

FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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Been a quiet start to the week and tomorrow is series of eu pmi related data that isn't particularly interesting. If there are major deviations across much of it then I will be dabbling but will refrain from trading it otherwise. Will be tuned to the news feeds for any brexit or trump sentiment that can be traded.

Wednesday, besides the weather reporting it will likely be the hottest day of the week has some opportunities. We have ausi cpi for the quarter and this will provide a clue on the direction of q3. The BOA are currently in a hold stance and waiting on data before policy changes. They have stated rates are likely to go up next but also note it will only be in 2019. If the cpi data is good it might bring forward expectations of a hike and that should be ausi positive. So long as trade war sentiment doesn't offset anything, we could have a trading opportunity.

Later in the eu session we have German sentiment. This indicator has dropped off significantly from 115 to 101. If there is a pickup then we should see some reaction in the euro but it needs to be significant for the reaction to have legs. If not we might get 15 to 20 pips on a good deviation to the upside.

Later in the day is crude inventories. Saudi Arabia have said they are not going to increase production much to affect prices. If there is miss on extectation to either side we should get an opportunity in cad. Will have to see what sentiment is on the day to pair it with a counterpart.




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FXX

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news hitting the wire - Iran threatening US if it attempts to stop oil exports. WTI currently at 67.81 and a break of 67.90 and ill be in long
 

FXX

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German PMI beat on expectations prev 55.9, expected 55.5 with actual at 57.3. Taken a quick 15 pips on and out of the trade now (eurusd).
 
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FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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news hitting the wire - Iran threatening US if it attempts to stop oil exports. WTI currently at 67.81 and a break of 67.90 and ill be in long
whipsaw price action and took us well into the US session open to get going. Closed trade for 72 pips and when added to the eurusd trade, gives me 87 pips for the day.
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FXX

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Oct 12, 2017
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Barjon and postman

I am not interested in anything you both have to say. Move along and please set me on ignore as I have you.

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FXX

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Tomorrow is AU cpi, a key piece of data that could being their hike forward. The question is the current trade war going to affect an opportunity.

https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/us-to-hold-hearings-on-china-tariffs-on-july-24-25-20180723

No word on the outcome of this yet and news could coincide with CPI data so there are risks that would offset at least temporarily any positive cpi data point. It's tempting but the time is rubbish so will opt for an early morning start instead of staying up for it. If the data is good and no news on this meeting or other trade war related news that might mess with sentiment, then we should see at least a modest reaction as the eu session kicks off. I am however reluctant and it would need to be a major deviation because I have been only moderately successful trading off an earlier news release. I think my issue has been context to be fair such as the data point not being significant enough for a follow through. For this reason I will only participate on a significant deviation.



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postman

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May 20, 2005
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Barjon and postman

I am not interested in anything you both have to say. Move along and please set me on ignore as I have you.

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Now I have (some) scruples, and I won't crash someones thread just to have a pop at them BUT (theres always a but) you lied in order to make yourself look like a victim.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-5740.html#post3053252

And when I called you out on it rather than man up and admit you lied (or made a mistake heaven forbid) you thought you'd just ignore it and it would go away.

If you cant admit your mistakes on an anonymous forum the market is going to eat you alive, because your broker wont let you put him on ignore when you make a trading mistake!

My last word on the matter on this thread.