My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

I haven't been following, but i will start right now.

if I learn something I didn't know, great.

If not, no biggie I've wasted more time taking showers. (which are a HUGE waste of time on the whole)
Lol, welcome on board. Feel free to ask away. Who knows you might just decide to give it a go one day.

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I smell risk-off sentiment brewing.

"European firms that cut ties with Iran over new US sanctions which kicked in at Midnight might find themselves subject to sanctions of their own, warned an EU official.*
“If EU companies abide by U.S. secondary sanctions they will, in turn, be sanctioned by the EU," Nathalie Tocci, an aide to the EU’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, told BBC Radio 4 on Monday, according to*NBC News."

The previous outbursts between the EU and Trump have been over tariffs. Today Trump tweeted this:

"Anyone doing business with Iran will NOT be doing business with the United States,"*


This is also inbound

"USTR says US will begin to collect the additional duties of 25% on China imports on Aug 23"

And guess what, China trade data due in the am.
 
added more to gold position (3 transactions currently open)
 
Booked 85 pips profit. Tomorrow is China cpi and hopefully I'll get another go if there is a leg down. I am not generally a swing trader but I do feel there is some opportunity in gold in the short term. A good result
 
onight RBNZ,

Just catching up on analysis now. Will be watching for anything dovish since there has been a deterioration in the economy and the governor has suggested the next move might be a cut. Their current forecast is for hitting the 2% inflation in Dec 2020. If the statement is more neutral that could add support for the kiwi but I won't be trading that since it won't have legs given the circumstances.

It will be interesting how they are going to spin it with wages starting to increase and inflation showing improvement.

In all liklihood it will be a dud event.
 
onight RBNZ,

Just catching up on analysis now. Will be watching for anything dovish since there has been a deterioration in the economy and the governor has suggested the next move might be a cut. Their current forecast is for hitting the 2% inflation in Dec 2020. If the statement is more neutral that could add support for the kiwi but I won't be trading that since it won't have legs given the circumstances.

It will be interesting how they are going to spin it with wages starting to increase and inflation showing improvement.

In all liklihood it will be a dud event.


Any potential with the JPY release tonight?
 
Dovish forecast but it isn't a massive deviation on their forecast so no go for me and its already played out 25 pops.
Also note the kiwi against USD is at extreme lows so not much meat on the bone before major support
 
Missed all the fun this morning although no news drove the dollar break so I wouldn't have been trading anyway. It has given me a other good level to add to gold.

Today is some tradable news. We have UK Gdp this morning, Canada employment and US cpi. Should be an interesting day. If US cpi is softer this breakout will reverse. Otherwise since there isn't any news driving it I am doubtful about its ability to hold. Makes no difference regardless today has good potential to offer trades..
 
risk off tone creeping into the market. The tensions on geopolitical have increased and even the ECB have referenced it in a statement. My gold trading has effectively been range trading and re-entry to position myself for risk off that should last several sessions. We have

- Trade ware tensions (escalating)
- Russian sanctions (yesterday and awaiting their response)
- Iran sanctions and the EU's rejection of it coupled with Trump stating no business with anyone supporting them
- Saudi Arabia\Canada tensions
- Nafta
- Brexit

My targets for Gold will be dependent on data and sentiment.
 
i entered a long EURGBP off the back of UK data being soft m\m GDP.

Manufacturing Production m/m was up but only because it was expected to be softer but really is unchanged from prev month.Prelim GDP q/q unchanged. trade balance is better which is expected but business investment did pop but isn't something the BOE is watching. GDP m\m shows growth slowing.
 
i entered a long EURGBP off the back of UK data being soft m\m GDP.

Manufacturing Production m/m was up but only because it was expected to be softer but really is unchanged from prev month.Prelim GDP q/q unchanged. trade balance is better which is expected but business investment did pop but isn't something the BOE is watching. GDP m\m shows growth slowing.
If it doesn't start shifting soon will close. My expectation is for price to react in reasonable time. Running into US session open isn't something I want to be hanging around for.
 
Bring it on - Gold pumping - Turkey asking people to exchange foreign currency for domestic
 
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