My break even stop took me out. Thinking back i should have given more emphasis to monthend flows when defining the context for targets and stops. I was up 47 pips at one point and price just flipped without any drivers which tends to happen also on days with large option expires. Funny thing is I was originally targeting 1 pip higher than the high of the day I was expecting too much given the circumstances. Well at least I made some pips today and didn't break my winning streak (trying to keep my calm and not get overconfident).
This style of trading really suits me well. The entire process is enjoyable and constantly changing to keep the interest going. I always found programming enjoyable particularly on the problem solving side. I just spent the last 3 days solving a problem at work and it turns out I found a bug in the vendors code. Trading in terms of problem solving is like a timed puzzle. You have to make a decision very quickly as to which pairing to make and ensure execution is done in the right direction. When I started doing this at experimental stages I would make a correct assignment of pairing but execute in the wrong direction and thereby shooting myself in the foot.
Luckily I have overcome that and now on the verge of doubling my account. Its a surreal feeling that I have managed to prove to myself that I can do it. I know there will be guys saying its only 10 months but its not really timing and trend factors such as catching a 10 month trend. I am buying and selling sentiment which does include selling a currency that has a hawkish rate hiking central bank. I have taken advantage of risk on and off market conditions and correlated as well as divergent growth conditions. I think I am well on my way I just need to keep improving. Today was a very good lesson in adjusting context to current market conditions. Had I been on the ball with that I would be looking at 40 pips bagged. It's a good outcome on the educational front.
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Couldn't trade fomc because my account isn't online yet. No surprises in the statement but trump just announced 25% tariffs on 200 billion to China and that's softened the dollar. I would have been making pips if I was active.
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BOE rate hike definitely dovish. Mentioned limited future hikes(3 over the next 3 years) and structural risk as well as uncertainty. He also mentioned a softening of business investment and that the BOE cannot solve brexit risks.
Sold cable against euro @ 0.88659 and out @ 0.89027 for a nice profit. On a fantastic note. My margin requirements are substantially less at the new broker (£29 for my trade size). FYou A.X.I.Trader (I still havent heard back from them - 5hitty customer services)
I will be starting to ramp up trade size and account balance in the next few months.
Sold cable against euro @ 0.88659 and out @ 0.89027 for a nice profit. On a fantastic note. My margin requirements are substantially less at the new broker (£29 for my trade size). FYou A.X.I.Trader (I still havent heard back from them - 5hitty customer services)
I will be starting to ramp up trade size and account balance in the next few months.
Tomorrow is going to be a fairly quiet day. It is nfp but we have heard from the fomc this week so it isn't really going to have much of an impact. We might get trade or brexit related news driving sentiment but besides that I don't see anything else market moving.
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said it was going to be a quiet day but an opportunity popped up. NFP was softer than expected but more importantly wage growth is not picking up. In tandem Canada released a whopper of a deviation in the trade balance expected was -2.3 billion but the actual was -6.3 which is well over a billion deviation. I sold usdcad @ 1.29919 and have a target at 1.2900 but i am not sure it it will have legs to make it there so will close out if it stalls.
basically my reasoning for the trade was an uneventful fed + nfp so no reason to continue buying dollars + some profit taking and weekend position squaring with a stronger than expected Canada trade balance
basically my reasoning for the trade was an uneventful fed + nfp so no reason to continue buying dollars + some profit taking and weekend position squaring with a stronger than expected Canada trade balance
so there has been some weekend news around brexit and the UK increasingly likely to leave without a deal. Added to that we have the dovish stance of Carney last week so its putting pressure on cable. I have opened a short cable against euro and looking to target July 20th highs. UK GDP is on Friday and it is expected to be weaker so unless something changes in the news front for cable around brexit, we should see continued pressure.
decided to close the trade for 15 pips profit. I was expecting a little more drive than has been observed and there are other factors like trade talks as well at the $ index sitting at its highs and looking top heavy. Part of my trading plan is not to sit exposed for longer than what is necessary and it looks like this might sit here. I basically judge it by time and moving into a new session (USA session) is not something i am willing to do without a strong driving force that can follow through multiple sessions. Happy with 15 pips given the sentiment on this isn't very strong.
update on today's trading
The trade decision wasn't based off anything in the RBA statement which was largely unchanged with a few minor changes but nothing that will change policy. At the time gold was getting stronger and USD weaker with USD being struggling to break higher. This isn't a surprise since USD news has been without anything new that could appreciate it further in the short term. Aus is a major exporter of gold so it was a nice correlation for USD weakening coupled with stronger gold and no negative surprises to RBA. This was a pure correlation trade and profit was taken quickly because there isn't really any news driving price so you have to approach it with greater caution.
The trade decision wasn't based off anything in the RBA statement which was largely unchanged with a few minor changes but nothing that will change policy. At the time gold was getting stronger and USD weaker with USD being struggling to break higher. This isn't a surprise since USD news has been without anything new that could appreciate it further in the short term. Aus is a major exporter of gold so it was a nice correlation for USD weakening coupled with stronger gold and no negative surprises to RBA. This was a pure correlation trade and profit was taken quickly because there isn't really any news driving price so you have to approach it with greater caution.
Done some analysis on the USD and putting that in context to trade wars, Iran sanctions, North Korea, and the dollar trade being crowded. My assessment is that gold will increase over the near term. I have opened a swing trade on it with a target of around 1225
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