My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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Currently in a trade piggy backing the parliament votes pertaining to house of lords and Brexit bill. Sold EURGBP at 0.88172 and in the green about 20 pips. Stop at break even and target is 0.87745 to hopefully take just over 40 pips.
Target hit
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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Quick update on todays trade

It has been all over the news for the last week and talked about almost daily on radio. Alarm went off 10 mins before on my phone (i set these in the morning for the day because I used to miss so many opportunities that I planned on catching}. Pulled up parliament tv and lbc just in case of a feed delay. The commentary leading up to the vote was pointing to the outcome. As soon as it was announced I climbed on board having the EURGBP chart and quotes ready with the mouse on the button ~just needed a click. Target on the 5 minute chart was the last major zone. Trade worked out well.

Tomorrow is going to hopefully be interesting. Ransquawk will be up and ready to view the wording changes alerts. Will spend the morning reviewing again the last statement and the same for data points leading up to today. This knowledge preparea me to digest wording changes and still have time to hope on an opportunity.

Plenty else on this week if it doesn't turn out as planned

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FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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Another successful FOMC trade

Ransquawk does it again in their rapid analysis of the data and broadcasting an upgrade to 4 hikes this year from 3 and a change in wording on economic growth from moderate to solid. In simple terms its a beat on expectations although market chit chat has been discussing overheating so it was sort of on the cards but just rumour.

Trade still in play, up 30 pips so far
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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so I took 50 pips out of that trade and wow it reversed. Been looking around for news and nothing so took at look at the treasury market and look at this:

Considering another entry

10 year (might be some large players working that 3% level)
 

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FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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I can't help but think the trade war drama and an already sluggish cat bounce recovery, is going to play a role in the ecb decision tomorrow.

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FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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long GBPUSD from 1.34260 , stop 1.34169, target 1.34558
stopped on this one. I need to work more on these after the fact trades as they tend to be touch and go which may be down to pending news or dissipating sentiment. Will continue to take them but will stop they work out to do more harm to the account than good.

It might be a case of better technical levels to trade off?
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
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ECB to keep rates unchanged at least until summer of 2019 + Asset purchases expected to be tapered to €15 billion from Oct to Dec

Markets were expecting more and also lets not forget it will all continue to be data dependent which has been soft lately

Quick trade for 20 pips in the bag
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
175
73
ECB to keep rates unchanged at least until summer of 2019 + Asset purchases expected to be tapered to €15 billion from Oct to Dec

Markets were expecting more and also lets not forget it will all continue to be data dependent which has been soft lately

Quick trade for 20 pips in the bag
looks like I exited too soon. I am reluctant to change to being more greedy on profit as when I started it was one of the biggest issues chewing away at my account. Wish I had a solution to this.
 

barjon

Well-known member
May 6, 2003
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looks like I exited too soon. I am reluctant to change to being more greedy on profit as when I started it was one of the biggest issues chewing away at my account. Wish I had a solution to this.
No, I think you’re quite right to operate as you do. If you think of your trading as a business where you take what you need from each good trade to keep your account moving along nicely (in business terms taking the profit margin you need to meet your bottom line requirements) then that’s fine - you can always take another bite if it really catches fire.

Maybe move up a tight stop rather than straight exit. Nine times out of ten you’ll be stopped out for a little less than you could have had, but occasionally it’ll zoom off with you on board.
 
Likes: swissy

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
175
73
No, I think you’re quite right to operate as you do. If you think of your trading as a business where you take what you need from each good trade to keep your account moving along nicely (in business terms taking the profit margin you need to meet your bottom line requirements) then that’s fine - you can always take another bite if it really catches fire.

Maybe move up a tight stop rather than straight exit. Nine times out of ten you’ll be stopped out for a little less than you could have had, but occasionally it’ll zoom off with you on board.
Thanks barjon

I was very close to letting yesterday's fomc trade run and if I did would have lost all that profit. I used to shoot myself in the foot like this which is why I do as you say and get out as soon as possible. I never had and never will have the skills to get those runners more often. I don't think anyone does.

I am not even sure what to call this bit the magnitude of expectations around major central bank events is what I believe I missed in my analysis.

I am growing closer to being convinced I can program an algo to do all this better than I can. I have done a lot of programming over the years on different data languages. My profession is data architect so getting the data from source to a processing engine won't be a problem. As for the algo. I am still thinking how I can implement the rules so its work in progress.


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Atilla

Well-known member
Nov 15, 2006
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Thanks barjon

I was very close to letting yesterday's fomc trade run and if I did would have lost all that profit. I used to shoot myself in the foot like this which is why I do as you say and get out as soon as possible. I never had and never will have the skills to get those runners more often. I don't think anyone does.

I am not even sure what to call this bit the magnitude of expectations around major central bank events is what I believe I missed in my analysis.

I am growing closer to being convinced I can program an algo to do all this better than I can. I have done a lot of programming over the years on different data languages. My profession is data architect so getting the data from source to a processing engine won't be a problem. As for the algo. I am still thinking how I can implement the rules so its work in progress.


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What are the questions you need help with?

If you give a couple of examples I'll put my thinking cap on!
 

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
175
73
What are the questions you need help with?

If you give a couple of examples I'll put my thinking cap on!
Hi Atilla

I think it is down to slight adjustments in my process to account for strength of sentiment. This isn't a major issue at the moment as I make profit on specific news events like this week but should really have known there was scope for greater profit off the back of strong sentiment.

The other area I need work on is when I take a trade well after news on a pullback. I find these trades are my worst area of trading but luckily they are only a small part of it. I think the issue is defining the technical level to get in. Having thought about this over the last couple of days I think I need to switch the strategy here from looking to get in at a specific level to looking for a lower risk entry where price gives a swing area for a stop and in process of establishing another test of the high\low and possibly beyond.

I should probably also include in that switch sufficient analysis of the sentiment\news that drove price in the first place. Has the reaction justified the event or not - would be a good filter to add.
 
Likes: Atilla

FXX

Well-known member
Oct 12, 2017
1,103
175
73
Speaking of which "The other area I need work on is when I take a trade well after news on a pullback."

I am looking to get back in EURUSD on a pullback. I have marked 1.6232 as the level where this retrace might find sellers. 1.6547 is another (stronger level) - in fact I am setting a pending sell order at 1.6547