My, €4.1k to €227k in 2 years, journal.

Hmm... I hate seeing newbies/people lose, so here's my best advice and what trading is, etc.:

Ok, so you want to trade to make money. But you also have to ask yourself what it means to extract money from the market. What is it about your activities that will allow you to make a profit in the long run? You might have heard that this is what we call an "edge". The edge can anything from behavior to particular repeating patterns that will leave you net positive at then end of a time period. In other words, it allows you to beat the competition.

Now, the thing is that you are starting out with NO EDGE, and you must develop this edge to first survive and ultimately profit.

So, first order of the day is pure survival. You need to survive the initial learning curve if you want to have a fighting chance.

As such, here's my prescription for your condition:

1) Forget about the money. It's about the trading.

2) I consign you to 6 months of demo trading to get your bearings.

3) Once you have gone beyond this trial, you will open an account and fund it with the absolute minimum necessary for your instrument.

4) You will trade on minimum stakes and you will not move up in size until you have something statistically meaningful on your hands. This may take years, but it's the only way to not lose your stake due to being a newbie.

Additionally, why the **** would you put money on something you were not positive would provide value? Too many see trading as free $$$ when they know dick about it. Never bet unless you have an edge. You WILL lose!

5) finally, while practicing everyday, you need to note your observations. How did price behave? Was there some pattern to it? Maybe another market influenced this move here? Etc.

Analyze the **** out of everything. Watch the price levels and reaction around there. Get in screentime everyday even if it bores the hell out of you. You will be developing your view of the market and become attuned to how it moves.

Eventually, you'll get to see recurring patterns and they'll end up behaving roughly the same every time. Note these and analyze them. What's your max risk? What's your target? Etc. After sufficient observation of these patterns, you will gain confidence in your betting ability.

But always start small. Bet small at first and build your stake gradually with your experience. Never, ever, go for the home run. The home run is the gambler's mentality. Avoid it.

6) Watch, learn, and plan. And especially, DO NOT BET until yu know wtf you're doing. You need to have a reason to bet, and a plan. The only way to get this is experience. Best to get that exp. cheap while you can and not blow the initial stake just learning the ropes.

Hope it helps, and good luck.
 
I don't normally post these days as talking about trading bores me but you've got £5k to risk and it sounds like you can't afford to lose £5k.

Self-belief and a PMA will help when you see losses start to rack up. What will determine whether you have it or not is simply patience. To prove this to yourself, put the £5k away safely and deposit £100 in an Alpari or Oanda account. Then risk just 5p per pip (0.01 lots) for the next year. If you think you're wasting your time, then you definitely haven't got what it takes.

PS No hate apart from just hating seeing people pay for brokers' Christmas parties.

Quite. Trading Forex is speculation, not investing. And speculation is basically just another form of gambling. The gamblers golden rule? NEVER GAMBLE WHAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE.

If he can't afford to lose that £5,000 he shouldn't risk it.
 
Hmm... I hate seeing newbies/people lose, so here's my best advice and what trading is, etc.:

Ok, so you want to trade to make money. But you also have to ask yourself what it means to extract money from the market. What is it about your activities that will allow you to make a profit in the long run? You might have heard that this is what we call an "edge". The edge can anything from behavior to particular repeating patterns that will leave you net positive at then end of a time period. In other words, it allows you to beat the competition.

Now, the thing is that you are starting out with NO EDGE, and you must develop this edge to first survive and ultimately profit.

So, first order of the day is pure survival. You need to survive the initial learning curve if you want to have a fighting chance.

As such, here's my prescription for your condition:

1) Forget about the money. It's about the trading.

2) I consign you to 6 months of demo trading to get your bearings.

3) Once you have gone beyond this trial, you will open an account and fund it with the absolute minimum necessary for your instrument.

4) You will trade on minimum stakes and you will not move up in size until you have something statistically meaningful on your hands. This may take years, but it's the only way to not lose your stake due to being a newbie.

Additionally, why the **** would you put money on something you were not positive would provide value? Too many see trading as free $$$ when they know dick about it. Never bet unless you have an edge. You WILL lose!

5) finally, while practicing everyday, you need to note your observations. How did price behave? Was there some pattern to it? Maybe another market influenced this move here? Etc.

Analyze the **** out of everything. Watch the price levels and reaction around there. Get in screentime everyday even if it bores the hell out of you. You will be developing your view of the market and become attuned to how it moves.

Eventually, you'll get to see recurring patterns and they'll end up behaving roughly the same every time. Note these and analyze them. What's your max risk? What's your target? Etc. After sufficient observation of these patterns, you will gain confidence in your betting ability.

But always start small. Bet small at first and build your stake gradually with your experience. Never, ever, go for the home run. The home run is the gambler's mentality. Avoid it.

6) Watch, learn, and plan. And especially, DO NOT BET until yu know wtf you're doing. You need to have a reason to bet, and a plan. The only way to get this is experience. Best to get that exp. cheap while you can and not blow the initial stake just learning the ropes.

Hope it helps, and good luck.

Thanks for the advice. I agree with you on the statistical front; ive been talking to my backtest contact a lot over the last week, and he really has opened my eyes. Ive got a plan to test a strategy on here, while documenting it on my journal. I know a lot of people dont reckon backtesting's any good, but that's fine. Cheers for the post vVG, some interesting points you brought up there.

GTTY.
 
Quite. Trading Forex is speculation, not investing. And speculation is basically just another form of gambling. The gamblers golden rule? NEVER GAMBLE WHAT YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE.

If he can't afford to lose that £5,000 he shouldn't risk it.

Thanks for stopping by.
 
Thanks for the advice. I agree with you on the statistical front; ive been talking to my backtest contact a lot over the last week, and he really has opened my eyes. Ive got a plan to test a strategy on here, while documenting it on my journal. I know a lot of people dont reckon backtesting's any good, but that's fine. Cheers for the post vVG, some interesting points you brought up there.

GTTY.

Backtesting is a fantastic way of developing a system that may apparently be hugely profitable when trading retrospectively. Problem is that it may also be hugely unprofitable the moment it's trading live.
 
Backtesting is a fantastic way of developing a system that may apparently be hugely profitable when trading retrospectively. Problem is that it may also be hugely unprofitable the moment it's trading live.


Yes i can see your points R.Charnock. I've been told to keep it simple in order to reduce the chance of "cuve-fit", so we'll see how we go. My contact's been banging on about sound principles and repeating market characteristics every third sentence :LOL:, so i should probably base my testing from these things.

GTTY.
 
What exactly do you disagree with RE (i know everything, but specifics please)? And why? Cheers.

GTTY.

well for one, demo trading will teach you fkk all about how to handle your emotions, and therefore your ability to handle any particular risk profile.

and you don't need to over-analyse anything.
people who do usually end up needing so many confirmation signals that they never get into a trade or freeze up.

just keep things simple - look at the attached chart -
if all you ever do is plot 00s and then have a plan, in advance, on what you'll do if ever price touches a price line
(ie, buy, sell or sit, or flip a coin)
you'll be 100 times better off than most of the jokers who try to make a go of trading.
 

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well for one, demo trading will teach you fkk all about how to handle your emotions, and therefore your ability to handle any particular risk profile.

and you don't need to over-analyse anything.
people who do usually end up needing so many confirmation signals that they never get into a trade or freeze up.

just keep things simple - look at the attached chart -
if all you ever do is plot 00s and then have a plan, in advance, on what you'll do if ever price touches a price line
(ie, buy, sell or sit, or flip a coin)
you'll be 100 times better off than most of the jokers who try to make a go of trading.

Makes sense, and ive always said the same about demo trading - we definitely agree on that one!! Load of rubbish. Thanks for the chart and advice, i will definitely have a plan. Pin bars on 1 minute chart days, are behind me.
 
here's a daily chart with horizontals at all major 00s
are they important ?
can they be traded ?
I don't know, what do you think ?
 

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here's a daily chart with horizontals at all major 00s
are they important ?
can they be traded ?
I don't know, what do you think ?

One would have to say that in this example there looks to be some support and resistance around these numbers. Cheers for the chart.

GTTY.
 
well for one, demo trading will teach you fkk all about how to handle your emotions, and therefore your ability to handle any particular risk profile.

I used to think the same about demo trading. "There is no substitute for live trading", or so I thought. Then I lost $4000. ;)

Starting on demo at least prevents the gambler in you from ratcheting up the stakes whenever you get the urge or you're frustrated, etc.

Emotionally, I've found no difference between demo and live, though that may just be me. It's at least a way of getting acclimatized to the market without making any $ losses due to all the initial mistakes.

and you don't need to over-analyse anything.
people who do usually end up needing so many confirmation signals that they never get into a trade or freeze up.

just keep things simple - look at the attached chart -
if all you ever do is plot 00s and then have a plan, in advance, on what you'll do if ever price touches a price line
(ie, buy, sell or sit, or flip a coin)
you'll be 100 times better off than most of the jokers who try to make a go of trading.

Agreed, but I think he should figure this stuff out for himself. Part of becoming a good trader is finding these patterns yourself.
 
I agree Demo is good.
I had a good deal of patience for learning to trade.
e.g. if it takes 10 years then so be it type of thing.
I spent a long long time on demo, taking it very seriously.
When I moved to real £ trading I had not only forward tested strategies
and edges but also almost literally seen it all before (yes OK markets are an unlimited
dimension of never ending changing activity but if we can limit this to being right so often and wrong so
often, being very wonderfully right and being very very painfully wrong).
There were no great surprises for me anymore. When I moved to real £ it was
seamless in terms of trading activity and feelings / emotion.
I'd recommend demo to anyone so long as its taken seriously and you
have the patience to really give it a good go.
Afterwoods if you feel you are ready to go live because you really have seen enough tested enough
and the same scenarios keep happening, and you keep on benefitting from them/ or avoiding the bad ones then you are probably ready to go live.
If you want to end demoing and go live in order to make loads of £££ and you are simply
itching to get on with real live trading. Think about it. You might not be ready yet.
 
Time's running out for you Benj. Shouldn't you be at around £25K by now?

Haha very good Charnock! I've had to calm down my newbie expectations a little bit - trying to sort out a strategy to backtest before going any further. I will keep you posted.
 
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