Millard montecarlo distribution

[arpo]

Hi all,

I am new in this forum, so I would like to say first hello to everyone.

I recently read the last book from the late Brian Millard and there he introduces his Millard Montecarlo distribution. He doesn't explain howhe does it, or I am too slow getting it.

Anyone has read the book or any of the author and could give some light?

Thanks a lot.

Arpo

 

[0007]

Hi all,

I am new in this forum, so I would like to say first hello to everyone.

I recently read the last book from the late Brian Millard and there he introduces his Millard Montecarlo distribution. He doesn't explain howhe does it, or I am too slow getting it.

Anyone has read the book or any of the author and could give some light?

Thanks a lot.

Arpo

The problem was that Millard unexpectedly died. This was before, I suspect, he had completely finished the book or completely updated his associated software. The current software is exactly the same as that which I helped him Beta-test some years ago now. You will note that in the book he doesn't actually refer to his proprietary software by brand-name but all the screenshots are derived from it. He also makes the point that everything he's done can be done manually by calculation and free-hand drawing -- and he's quite correct: but you wouldn't walk 100 miles if you could drive would you?

His own software does include a Monte Carlo calculator but its minimum lookahead period is 20 days whereas in the book I think he refers to something around five. (It seems that the software illustrated in the book uses an updated M-Carlo module that has not been incorporated in his published software). There is of course nothing to stop you feeding your data into a Monte Carlo programme and doing your own calculations. The most valuable part of the book refers to the use of cycles and for a full explanation you do need to read his previous book "Tribute to Hurst".

Milliards proprietary software is a little bit buggy -- I think he possibly had a problem with making his arrays too small to hold large data series or the memory allocation was insufficient (but he was a mathematician primarily, not a programmer) -- but it does work well if treated gently and it is the easiest way to find cycles which can be relied on. If you have the time, patience, skill etc etc you could write your own software to calculate the cycles but his method of summing them was proprietary and I suspect, would need some fairly advanced programming and algorithmic skills. In practice its easier to stick with what he produced.

It takes quite a lot of effort, practice and understanding to be successful with Milliards methods but I can assure you that used properly, they are extremely profitable.

 

[arpo]

The problem was that Millard unexpectedly died. This was before, I suspect, he had completely finished the book or completely updated his associated software. The current software is exactly the same as that which I helped him Beta-test some years ago now. You will note that in the book he doesn't actually refer to his proprietary software by brand-name but all the screenshots are derived from it. He also makes the point that everything he's done can be done manually by calculation and free-hand drawing -- and he's quite correct: but you wouldn't walk 100 miles if you could drive would you?

His own software does include a Monte Carlo calculator but its minimum lookahead period is 20 days whereas in the book I think he refers to something around five. (It seems that the software illustrated in the book uses an updated M-Carlo module that has not been incorporated in his published software). There is of course nothing to stop you feeding your data into a Monte Carlo programme and doing your own calculations. The most valuable part of the book refers to the use of cycles and for a full explanation you do need to read his previous book "Tribute to Hurst".

Milliards proprietary software is a little bit buggy -- I think he possibly had a problem with making his arrays too small to hold large data series or the memory allocation was insufficient (but he was a mathematician primarily, not a programmer) -- but it does work well if treated gently and it is the easiest way to find cycles which can be relied on. If you have the time, patience, skill etc etc you could write your own software to calculate the cycles but his method of summing them was proprietary and I suspect, would need some fairly advanced programming and algorithmic skills. In practice its easier to stick with what he produced.

It takes quite a lot of effort, practice and understanding to be successful with Milliards methods but I can assure you that used properly, they are extremely profitable.

Thanks 0007. I have read the book that Hurst wrote and been trying to develop a methodology based in this in the last 12 months. i recently came up to Millard's last book. I also bought "Channel Analysis" from him (this is older). I think he gives much more light to channel-cyclic annalysis than Hurst did.
May I ask if you'ld you recomend Millard's software package?

thanks,

arpo

 

[0007]

Thanks 0007. I have read the book that Hurst wrote and been trying to develop a methodology based in this in the last 12 months. i recently came up to Millard's last book. I also bought "Channel Analysis" from him (this is older). I think he gives much more light to channel-cyclic annalysis than Hurst did.
May I ask if you'ld you recomend Millard's software package?

thanks,

arpo

Yes I would, subject to what I said in my earlier post. I think you can still download a trial from the Qudos website (qudosmarketinsight) -- there are some tutorials there also. But even when you understand properly how it all works, you will still need to spend a lot of time adapting it to your style of trading-- and if you are like me you will probably end up using it slightly differently from the way he recommended. Without a really good understanding of the fundamental principles of cycles it will be difficult to make it work for you. It's not really daytrading stuff -- Millard recommended if I remember rightly, an optimum trading period in the region of 100 days. I use considerably shorter than that-- normally less than 10 days.

 

[arpo]

Yes I would, subject to what I said in my earlier post. I think you can still download a trial from the Qudos website (qudosmarketinsight) -- there are some tutorials there also. But even when you understand properly how it all works, you will still need to spend a lot of time adapting it to your style of trading-- and if you are like me you will probably end up using it slightly differently from the way he recommended. Without a really good understanding of the fundamental principles of cycles it will be difficult to make it work for you. It's not really daytrading stuff -- Millard recommended if I remember rightly, an optimum trading period in the region of 100 days. I use considerably shorter than that-- normally less than 10 days.

Thanks a lot gentleman