Message For Ftse Traders......

[RedGreenBen]

haha...........

tell me about it .....pushing their own agendas according to there long or short positions!!

I wish i could get 5 mins on there after i opened a position, i would retire soon after? haha

Yep, 'talking up your own book' is the a great game. I'm guessing those analysts predicting $200 oil were a tiny bit long!

 

[rnicoll]

I think your analysis makes a lot of sense BUT I'm only interested in patterns that repeat themselves over a few hours. If it tanks I'll do X, if it doesn't I'll do Y. No Bloomberg, no news feeds, no interest in UK plc, no interest in the financial press,...

However, I still got out of my short too early before the obvious support @ 4450 becuase I had a 'feeling' and should have known better, so I wouldn't listen to me either
Ben

Even if trading short-term, I generally prefer to trade with the overall trend of the market, much safer IMHO. Personally, I wouldn't trade this short-term, though. Best of luck

 

[Dentalfloss]

a chart of ftse 100.box size is 50 points.3 box reversal.price has breached a downtrend line/a major one.there is a major area of support at 4450.from the previous upthrust column.
you can get a negative signal /shakeout on the first wave of an uptrend.a large amount of profit taking due to the first wave of a trend.a shakeout can be a great entry point
there is clustering of vertical counts at the 5200 area
a retrace back to the downtrend line today.intel earnings
however,the world seems to be waiting for the obama stimlus package

 

[wallstreet1928]

I like your point and figure charts Dentist...........Keep'em coming my friend!!

 

[Dentalfloss]

I like your point and figure charts Dentist...........Keep'em coming my friend!!

glad you like them
well it looks at this point that it is a correction in an uptrend and not yet a fully blown downtrend

 

[rnicoll]

Does anyone else find the hardest bit of trading is seeing a losing position turn into a profitable one, and knowing you need to hold onto it longer despite the risk of it turning back into losing, or it won't make enough to have been worth the risk?

In other news, WOOHOO, I'm making a profit :-D

 

[RedGreenBen]

Does anyone else find the hardest bit of trading is seeing a losing position turn into a profitable one, and knowing you need to hold onto it longer despite the risk of it turning back into losing, or it won't make enough to have been worth the risk?

In other news, WOOHOO, I'm making a profit :-D

That kind of thinking won't do you any favours, although it is very easy to let it get hold. I'm a boring automaton of a trader but I have a low heart-rate... Every trade has a stop and a limit and well defined reason(s) to move them. I live a dull but happy life.

anti-WOOHOO, watching my short profit get eaten away.

Ben

 

[rnicoll]

That kind of thinking won't do you any favours, although it is very easy to let it get hold. I'm a boring automaton of a trader but I have a low heart-rate... Every trade has a stop and a limit and well defined reason(s) to move them. I live a dull but happy life.

anti-WOOHOO, watching my short profit get eaten away.

Oh, yes, I have a two stops (a mental close-in stop, and a stop order further out incase the market really kicks), and a limit before I open the trade. I'm just not good at the patient waiting bit...

 

[RedGreenBen]

. I'm just not good at the patient waiting bit...

There's a lot to be said for trading and watching Countdown/Neighbours/etc (but not Loose Woman obviously).*

I got out of the short at the 2nd pass and have now reversed at 4396, not a high probability trade.

Ben

* Apologies to non-UK readers.

 

[rnicoll]

There's a lot to be said for trading and watching Countdown/Neighbours/etc (but not Loose Woman obviously).*

I got out of the short at the 2nd pass and have now reversed at 4396, not a high probability trade.

I'm meant to be , but am not really succeeding at, doing a bunch of web stuff. Also, desperately hope you're wrong about the reversal, although I believe you're trading much shorter time scales than me so we may both turn out to be right :-D

 

[RedGreenBen]

I'm meant to be , but am not really succeeding at, doing a bunch of web stuff. Also, desperately hope you're wrong about the reversal, although I believe you're trading much shorter time scales than me so we may both turn out to be right :-D

Yep, much shorter timescale, I was long but see very little reason currently to get back above the 415 resistance and lots of people ready to sell into this move up.

 

[RedGreenBen]

Hi Ben


thats that off my chest, feel much better

Phew, wouldn't like to be cornered by you at a party

All I can say is that for ME and MY STYLE of trading, less thought equals more profit.

... and out of that long at 413. Time for lunch.

Ben

PS None of the above is meant to sound rude/smug/dismissive etc!!

 

[rnicoll]

Phew, wouldn't like to be cornered by you at a party

All I can say is that for ME and MY STYLE of trading, less thought equals more profit.

... and out of that long at 413. Time for lunch.

Ben

PS None of the above is meant to sound rude/smug/dismissive etc!!

Did SEMM delete their message, or am I going crazy?

I think mostly I agree with you on trading style. I generally enter trades by limit order, with stop and limit orders attached to it. While I've got the trading window open just so I can keep an eye on things, that's more for my own amusement than because I'm doing anything with it. "Work smarter, not harder" is a big thing for me, with trading.

When I have more free time I'm going to go back to automated trading. Was planning on doing a "trade by wire" application; basically I tell it if I thinki the market is going up or down and over what timescale, based on fundamental analysis, it does technical analysis and shows likely entry/exit scenarios then executes the lot for me.

 

[RedGreenBen]

Did SEMM delete their message, or am I going crazy?

I think mostly I agree with you on trading style. I generally enter trades by limit order, with stop and limit orders attached to it. While I've got the trading window open just so I can keep an eye on things, that's more for my own amusement than because I'm doing anything with it. "Work smarter, not harder" is a big thing for me, with trading.

When I have more free time I'm going to go back to automated trading. Was planning on doing a "trade by wire" application; basically I tell it if I thinki the market is going up or down and over what timescale, based on fundamental analysis, it does technical analysis and shows likely entry/exit scenarios then executes the lot for me.

You're right, the (ever so slightly verbose) message has been deleted.

I think we are on a similar wavelength. If you harvest daffodils for a living then extra effort is rewarded with greater pay, that's not true with this game.

The trouble I have with automated trading is that I believe the vast majority of a systems value comes from trend and support/resistance (no indicators on my desktop!). An automated approach to the latter is difficult.

Ben

 

[RedGreenBen]

I forgot what this thread was about.... short again off the 12:25 5-min High with a 10 point stop. I'm also trading EURUSD which has made a massive move today so am looking for an early finish.

Ben

 

[rnicoll]

I think we are on a similar wavelength. If you harvest daffodils for a living then extra effort is rewarded with greater pay, that's not true with this game.

Can I suggest that specifically if you harvest daffodils, pay increases linearly with effort. With trading, I think people who put twice as much time in would make more than me, but not twice as much. Making any sense?

The trouble I have with automated trading is that I believe the vast majority of a systems value comes from trend and support/resistance (no indicators on my desktop!). An automated approach to the latter is difficult

Trends can be determined by taking the gradients of every line between two price points in your sample time period, and then reducing the precision until a recurring gradients become apparent. Sharp breaks in gradient are also interesting.

For support/resistance, I think the probability of a price appearing during a time period is useful...

My last attempt was doing fantastic for a while, actually. Until the week it lost 150%, and I was REALLY glad it was still paper trading :-D

 

[rnicoll]

I forgot what this thread was about.... short again off the 12:25 5-min High with a 10 point stop. I'm also trading EURUSD which has made a massive move today so am looking for an early finish.

Back in profit over here, after some light dabbling with about £20 down. A lot of people seem to think the market's going to bounce, the option I'm watching has barely moved in price since I bought it on Friday, despite being 20% closer to being in the money.

 

[RedGreenBen]

How can I watch daytime TV when you keep raising interesting points!?

With trading, I think people who put twice as much time in would make more than me, but not twice as much. Making any sense?

Makes sense, but I think the curve gradient turns negative at a certain point. I see people with 15 different colour lines hand-drawn on a chart, 12 indicators and a 5 page pre-market analysis. They don't see the wood for the trees.

If you read "Super Crunchers" then it is full of great examples of how simple automated analysis beats the experts almost every time!

Trends can be determined by taking the gradients of every line between two price points in your sample time period, and then reducing the precision until a recurring gradients become apparent. Sharp breaks in gradient are also interesting.

For support/resistance, I think the probability of a price appearing during a time period is useful...

re. trends. Interesting. I've been using a Fourier transform approach but with limited success.

re. S/R. I'm familiar with some approaches to this, seems like a pattern recognition problem though where carbon remains better than silicon.

FTSE looking choppy, now happy to take a second bite at the last low, still get R:R of >2.5

Ben

 

[RedGreenBen]

the option I'm watching has barely moved in price since I bought it on Friday, despite being 20% closer to being in the money.

Don't talk to me about options. I keep getting told "you're a scientist, you'll love options trading" but I seem to have a hole in my brain where the required grey gloop should be.

Now out of the short for 27. I've had a good day but know enough to recognise it as underpinned by statistical noise.

Thanks all for the interesting words today.

Ben

 

[rnicoll]

How can I watch daytime TV when you keep raising interesting points!?

I suspect you'll cope without your fix

Makes sense, but I think the curve gradient turns negative at a certain point. I see people with 15 different colour lines hand-drawn on a chart, 12 indicators and a 5 page pre-market analysis. They don't see the wood for the trees.

If you read "Super Crunchers" then it is full of great examples of how simple automated analysis beats the experts almost every time!

Similar to programming (my day job); up to about 40-50 hours, most programmers can work productively. 50-70 hours and they're slowing down noticably. By about 80 hours, they would have beeen better off giving up and going home around 60 hours. This then drops further if done for multiple weeks at a time. Game developers are a bit of an exception because they only have to write stuff once and get it to work, maintenance is MUCH less of a thing. Many times I've spent longer untangling someone's work than they did writing it in the first place.


One of the lessons I learnt early on in trading, and I think is interesting, is that for every time I miss a good entry point because I'm getting tea/talking to a friend/asleep, I tend to miss a bad entry point that looks like a good entry point, too.

re. trends. Interesting. I've been using a Fourier transform approach but with limited success.

Problem with Fourier transforms is that they're meant for continuous data. So, lets say I do a transform on a year's sample data; that data is still contaminated by data over more than the current year. Someone with a better signals processing background than me might be able to filter out the longer term trends, but it's beyond my maths

re. S/R. I'm familiar with some approaches to this, seems like a pattern recognition problem though where carbon remains better than silicon.

I'm too geeky. My first thought was "Why would you base a computer on carbon?"...

Certainly, the problem I rapidly hit with automated trading was that I could see patterns that could be gone by the time I figured out how to express them in code. Neural nets would be a possible answer, but AI isn't my strong point. Currently looking at ways of abstracting the problem down into simpler parts that can be glued together much faster. Functional programming languages such as F# or Haskell are promising for helping with this.

FTSE looking choppy, now happy to take a second bite at the last low, still get R:R of >2.5

Yeah, I think it's exhausted, short of anything catastrophic happening in the last hour. Hoping to close this option position next week for a very nice profit, at this rate, though.