Article Member Profile: robster970

DallasSteve

Member
62 1
Disappointed

I haven't been reading here lately and I received an email about this interview. Since Rob is a programmer (I am, too) I thought I might get some real insight about programming a winning system. I didn't. In the end it appears that Rob tried and couldn't make it work either. I have been programming for 17 years and I was a CPA for 15 years before that, so if anyone should be able to program a winning system I would give myself a good shot. It can't be done. I won't argue it if others disagree. If you want to believe it, go ahead. If you say it has worked for you, I can't disprove it, but almost everyone who says they have a system that can beat the market has something they want to sell. I have tried to program different markets with all types of systems imaginable over the last 15 years. All come back to zero given enough time. You can have a winning system for a few months, but if you want to make a living trading won't work. If you have been beating the market trading you are on borrowed time. As so many academics have proved, and I did not want to believe, the market is a random walk. Get out before you lose all your money.
 

robster970

Veteren member
4,566 1,390
Thank you for all the nice feedback folks - appreciate it and I sincerely hope you found the little essay useful.

I take me hat off to you sir. I find it tough enough staying ahead of the game being in it year in year out. I'm pretty sure I'd lose me touch if I took time out to follow other projects.

TBH Pat, I am not sure if I am ahead of the game. I will know when I get back on the horse. I've traded intermittently this year and it does not seem to have affected anything by the looks of it but the honest answer is I just don't know yet.

I haven't been reading here lately and I received an email about this interview. Since Rob is a programmer (I am, too) I thought I might get some real insight about programming a winning system. I didn't. In the end it appears that Rob tried and couldn't make it work either.

There are only two people I came across on these boards who I think made it work: Liquid Validity and Random12345. My assessment is the same as yours if you do not have a quantitative background.
 
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Trader333

Moderator
8,655 981
I thought I might get some real insight about programming a winning system

It depends on what you mean by a "winning system". Some of us here were fortunate enough to see a former member of T2W trade live at his home using an automated apporach that had an astonishingly high profit. It was not used to trade a single instrument but basket traded a whole series at the same time. I remember seeing it in action and pointed out that some of the instruments traded had gone into loss immediately to which he said it doesn't matter because it is the overall net position that mattered and he was right. He made over $2K in profit on that day alone and it was not uncommon for him to have 15 profitable days in a row. Of course although we knew the key elements of how he did it but not how it actually worked.
 

counter_violent

Legendary member
11,279 3,005
It depends on what you mean by a "winning system". Some of us here were fortunate enough to see a former member of T2W trade live at his home using an automated apporach that had an astonishingly high profit. It was not used to trade a single instrument but basket traded a whole series at the same time. I remember seeing it in action and pointed out that some of the instruments traded had gone into loss immediately to which he said it doesn't matter because it is the overall net position that mattered and he was right. He made over $2K in profit on that day alone and it was not uncommon for him to have 15 profitable days in a row. Of course although we knew the key elements of how he did it but not how it actually worked.

Yes that's right. For numerous reasons I came to the conclusion long ago that multiple instruments was the way to go. It's more complex to do though, which is probably the reason why most shy away.
 

Trader333

Moderator
8,655 981
You would need either programming skills or access to someone who has them to implement this in my view. In the above case there were around 10 simultaneous trades placed at exactly the same time which is just not possible as a lone trader and all trades were closed automatically as well.
 

Pat Riley

Established member
794 178
It depends on what you mean by a "winning system". Some of us here were fortunate enough to see a former member of T2W trade live at his home using an automated apporach that had an astonishingly high profit. It was not used to trade a single instrument but basket traded a whole series at the same time. I remember seeing it in action and pointed out that some of the instruments traded had gone into loss immediately to which he said it doesn't matter because it is the overall net position that mattered and he was right. He made over $2K in profit on that day alone and it was not uncommon for him to have 15 profitable days in a row. Of course although we knew the key elements of how he did it but not how it actually worked.

Now that’s interesting. One of my strategies involves a putting two or more in harness, but if by basket you mean assets from the same class then my approach diverges a bit as I’ll use correlated instruments, but not necessarily classified identically. The basics involve selling strong elements and buying weak ones on the basis that one or both or all will converge and yield a net profit. The mix will typically involve vanilla assets and derivatives not even necessarily of correlated classes. Depends what appears to have been skewed the most by what I consider excessive bias. Not something I could ever get round to automating which necessarily restricts the number of instruments in play at any time, but I’m pleased your chap has such success with it. Does he post on here and is there a thread somewhere I could look at?
 

SpreadDoctor

Well-known member
318 59
Yes that's right. For numerous reasons I came to the conclusion long ago that multiple instruments was the way to go. It's more complex to do though, which is probably the reason why most shy away.

Do you still think that people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid? single instrument or multiple instruments doesn't matter when you realise it's not the instrument that is holding the trader back. Consider a trader who has moderate success on a single instrument, would he be wise to call all multiple instruments traders charlatans? Consider a trader who has moderate success trading multiple instruments, would he be wise to call all single instrument traders charlatans?
 
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counter_violent

Legendary member
11,279 3,005
Do you still think that people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid? single instrument or multiple instruments doesn't matter when you realise it's not the instrument that is holding the trader back. Consider a trader who has moderate success on a single instrument, would he be wise to call all multiple instruments traders charlatans? Consider a trader who has moderate success trading multiple instruments, would he be wise to call all single instrument traders charlatans?

Still trying to score points :LOL: Wasting your time I'm afraid. I'm immune.
 

SpreadDoctor

Well-known member
318 59
Still trying to score points :LOL: Wasting your time I'm afraid. I'm immune.

I have banked my daily target from a couple of FX trades ;). not trying to score points just seeing if you 'still think that people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid?' as per your other post that you deleted. :)

The point I was making was that single v. multiple instruments doesn't get to the crux of why someone isn't profitable.

I was wondering with hindsight if your opinion on FX traders had changed?
 
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barjon

Legendary member
10,705 1,809
I have banked my daily target from a couple of FX trades ;). not trying to score points just seeing if you 'still think that people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid?' as per your other post that you deleted. :)

The point I was making was that single v. multiple instruments doesn't get to the crux of why someone isn't profitable.

I was wondering with hindsight if your opinion on FX traders had changed?

Oh you do go on, SD :sleep:. In my opinion tangling with CV is a mugs game, but don't take it personally :LOL:.
 

SpreadDoctor

Well-known member
318 59
In my opinion tangling with CV is a mugs game, but don't take it personally :LOL:.
why is it a mugs game Barjon? I find it mildly amusing that a trading forum which is predominantly pitched at FX traders has a moderator who openly stated that 'people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid'. I mean that's not good for anyone is it. :)
 

Forexmospherian

Legendary member
39,928 3,301
why is it a mugs game Barjon? I find it mildly amusing that a trading forum which is predominantly pitched at FX traders has a moderator who openly stated that 'people who trade FX by choice are terminally stupid'. I mean that's not good for anyone is it. :)

I agree SD

The thing is - CV is a good FX trader from what I understand - but maybe finds trading other instruments give him better results and are easier to trade.

I have heard from a few traders who have used some of my methods on indices saying they have had better results etc - and maybe if I was starting again I would do it differently but after approx 13 yrs and 7 yrs full time only trading FX - I could not face going through another couple of years getting acquainted to the idiosyncrasies of other products - especially with less than 3 yrs away from full retirement.

I suppose if you are terminally stupid and can stay rich - then its not too bad ;)

Regards


F
 

SpreadDoctor

Well-known member
318 59
I agree SD

The thing is - CV is a good FX trader from what I understand - but maybe finds trading other instruments give him better results and are easier to trade.

I have heard from a few traders who have used some of my methods on indices saying they have had better results etc - and maybe if I was starting again I would do it differently but after approx 13 yrs and 7 yrs full time only trading FX - I could not face going through another couple of years getting acquainted to the idiosyncrasies of other products - especially with less than 3 yrs away from full retirement.

I suppose if you are terminally stupid and can stay rich - then its not too bad ;)

Regards


F

Yes F. A consistently profitable trader is likely to be able to transfer between instruments, maybe not the same strategy but they will be able to shape shift. From my experience people that say 'you cant do that' should actually be saying 'I cant do that' and there own self protection mechanism try's to convince others that they cant do it either.
 

tar

Legendary member
10,443 1,313
Yes F. A consistently profitable trader is likely to be able to transfer between instruments, maybe not the same strategy but they will be able to shape shift. From my experience people that say 'you cant do that' should actually be saying 'I cant do that' and there own self protection mechanism try's to convince others that they cant do it either.

Maybe but not necessarily , a profitable stocks or options trader may have a hard time switching to FX or to the Dax for example .

To be honest the current low volatility environment in FX has its own advantages , yes it is boring and may be untradeable to some , but the credit crunch wasn't a picnic either ! Just adapt and take advantage of the current environment .
 
 
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