Medium term downtrending stocks (USA)

Tramadoon

Junior member
14 0
Hi guys,

I'm looking for some medium term downtrending stocks, in order to hedge the incredible highs that the US stock market is at right now. I'm using the finviz screener as a starting point, but I thought I'd ask here in case any had any ideas for me to examine more closely.

I'm currently swing trading stocks like Amazon, FB etc (with SLs just in case). I also have some long term positions on PFE, Shell and BTI.

I'm looking to hedge against a possible crash in case the market decides that a covid recovery might take longer than anticipated (or a just some other random crash). To that end, I'm looking for some swing positions on downtrending stocks that will not change course in the event of a crash.

All thoughts welcome with many thanks.
 

Tramadoon

Junior member
14 0
Hello again,

I thought I'd post the first steps of my research. Maybe I'll get a "more" comments. :)

I've come up with 6 companies, all traded in the US. All currently under 200 SMA (daily). I'll write a little bit about each one. This'll be a way for me to put my thoughts in order... and maybe useful to some readers.

I only have basic info at this point. I'll need to do more research under all circumstances.

TEO Telecom Argentina
Argentinian mid cap. Price peaked in 2018 at around $30. Currently at 6.50 in consolidation with a recent December high of 9.50. Just one Wall Street analyst has looked at this (according to Saxo), and has a price target of $6, from 5 months ago. $6 also seems to be the support from Oct and Nov. It was trading at around $11 pre pandemic. Fell to 6 and climbed briefly back to 11 in the summer, before coming back down. It looks like there's something wrong with this company (which is what I want actually), but it need to check how it's related to the pandemic. Another issue is that it only has around 60 cents of downside and was recently at $9 ...! Probably a no go.

SUPV Grupo Supervielle Argentina
Argentinian banking micro cap. Again, 2018 high of around $30. Currently at 1.91. Hit 3.50 in August, but post October high is around $2.20. Two analysts, both at sell, but with no price target. Pre pandemic at 2.60, fell to around 1.30. Recovered to around $4 in August, just like TEO above. Also probably a no go..

BKYI Biokey Int Inc
This is a penny stock in industrials. Was at $80 in 2013. Currently at 4.51. Pre pandemic at around $8, then shot up to $20 temporarily, before coming back down. In a new crash, will this shoot up again? Let me go to the next one...

CMCM Cheetah Mobile
Chinese mid cap. Currently trading at 3.22. Peaked in 2015 at around $18. Went from $2 pre pandemic to $1. Currently above pre pandemic levels. Jumped in recent weeks.. recent days actually to $5. Is this a possible winner from the BABA clamp down? Let's go to the next one.

XEL Xcel Energy
American utlity. Large cap. Neutral rating. Average anaylst target (6 analysts) is a $68. I'm not sure this is on a long term down trend, but it might still be my best bet so far. ATH is around 76 which it hit in November (post pandemic). Has been on a downtrend since then, past 6 weeks of which were like clockwork. Has had three downgrades from April onwards (after which it hit ATH - go figure). Pre pandemic it was at 72, then hit 48. I think it's not perfect, but this might be my favourite one so far.

NKLA Nikola
US EV company. Doesn't need much of an introduction. The whole company seems to be a con job (though there have been efforts to rectify that). Also, EV stocks are a gamble with all the hype these days and a Biden victory. Additionally, recent history has shown us that con jobs can have a lot of success. NKLA actually has a buy rating (8 analysts, 3 buy, 5 hold) with an average target of 29 (currently at 23). Hmmm...

MO Altria Group
American tobacco large cap. Price peaked in 2017 at $75. Currently at $43. Last 5 years have been a struggle for these guys. I just don't know how much further down they could go. Right now, the downtrend might be changing to a consolidatfion phase. They also have an 8% dividend, which I'll have to watch out for. It'll force me to cover before the ex dates.

I can't say I've found anything I really like... I guess I'll keep looking.

I'll welcome any thoughts in the meantime! Thanks again.
 
 
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