May 06 Cocoa

[Pippppin]

Monitoring the day-to-day weather in the Ivory Coast, and truck movements, is highly unlikely to yield any insight into the this market, and again demonstrates that with fundamentals it is often extremely difficult to separate the wood from the trees.

As with all commodities, long term fluctuations in supply and demand are the key....not the frequent misinformation followed by most traders

 

[DaveT]

Cocoa Seasonal Chart


15-year seasonal chart shows a large down move in late-Jan to early Feb.

Then a sharp rally from mid to Late-Feb.

 

[mothman]

Cocoa Seasonal Chart


15-year seasonal chart shows a large down move in late-Jan to early Feb.

Then a sharp rally from mid to Late-Feb.

Dave T - thats a good chart, pardon my ignorance but is that from the subscriber section of MCRI? Always enjoy your insightful post by the way.

 

[DaveT]

Hi mothman -

The chart is originally from MCRI.

However I access these seasonal charts for free at:

http://www.futuresbuzz.com/seasonal_charts.html

 

[TWI]

Anybody still in this Dog? I am still hanging in the May NY but less than 30 lots so prepared to sit on it and see if we can muster any support next week.

 

[bgold]

Anybody still in this Dog? I am still hanging in the May NY but less than 30 lots so prepared to sit on it and see if we can muster any support next week.

Hi Twalker, see that you still regularly post on these boards. I have been quite absent from the boards. As for Cocoa, I am again flat, stopped out of short yesterday at 1462, using a 2-day trail, after it reached initial w3 target <1430. Entry was 1515. Not sure what's next, still see it lower, perhaps below 1350, but not a lot of conviction (obviously otherwise wouldn't have had a tight trailing stop).

 

[zuke]

The political situation the Cote D'Ivoire has improved dramatically and I beleive this will have an adverse effect on prices.