May '04 Forex

[The Wanderer]

Results for Euro/USD
***********************

1 am - 8 am System
**********************

5 Trades.

4 Winners.

1 Loser

*******************************************************************************************
Total for winning trades: +203.Average +50.75

Losing trade: -60

Nett Profit : +143

All trades had opening gap below 60.

The highest opening gap was on the losing trade (57).

For the winning trades it was 39 34 46 +38 respectively.

***********************************************************************************

8am -10 am system
***********************

5 Trades.

3 Winners.

2 Losers.

*****************************************************************************************
Winners : +87.Average +29

Losers : -80.Average -40

Nett Profit +7

***************************************************************************************************

1 trade with opening gap above 60 (96).

This produced profit of +15.

If filtered out would leave overall loss of -8.
************************************************************************************************
More results to follow

 

[Dentalfloss]

i think for cable and euro/usd.the dollar is flying.ithink to trade with the flow/scalping techniques only.there is momentum on gb/jpy.should go to 203.50.good luck all in the coming week

 

[The Wanderer]

USD/CHF
***********
1 am -8 am system
**********************
5 Trades.

3 Winners.

2 Losers.

**************************************************************************************************************

Total for winning trades: +245 (Average 81.66)


Total for losing trades: -73 (Average 36.5 )

Nett profit: : +172



***************************************************************************************************
1 trade where opening gap above 60 .
This produced loss of -13

If filtered out overall position would have been profit of +185.



***************************************************************************************************

8am -10 am system
***********************
5 Trades.

2 Winners.

3 Losers.
************************************************************************************************
Winners: +114 (Average +57)

Losers: -102 (Average -34)

Nett profit: +12.

************************************************************************************************

1 trade with opening gap above 60.

This produced profit of +43

If filtered out would have produced nett loss of -31

 

[JonnyT]

Wanderer,

Your Stop Loss is way too big. Smaller = better ;o)

JonnyT

 

[The Wanderer]

Jonny

Been doing stop at -40 on 8am to 10 am system.know you said 35 but thought extra 5 might help if things whip about as currencies are inclined to do.

Understood that -60 was what was recommended by Rog in his revised 1am-8 am version of the system which he had backtested.If I am wrong I stand corrected.

Could you please confirm current "expert opinion".


Thanks

 

[The Wanderer]

USD/JPY
***********

1 am - 8 am system
**********************
5 Trades.

3 Winners.

2 Losers.
***************************************************************************************************

Winners: +273 (Average 91)

Losers: -120 (Average 60)

Nett Profit : +153

**************************************************************************************************

2 Trades where opening gap above 60.

These produced total profit of +216.

If filtered out nett loss would have been -63.

************************************************************************************************

8 am - 10 am system
***********************
5 Trades

4 Winners

1 Loser

*****************************************************************************************************
Winners: +114 (Average 28.5)

Loser : -40

Nett: +74

**********************************************************************************************************
No trades with opening gap above 60

*********************************************************************************************************

Just about to go out to do the "proper job "-not a trader yet - but will answer any queries tomorrow.

 

[Welshmal]

Very interesting postings; it's very much a case of taking the system and adapting to your own objectives.

May I repaeat my posting from several messages ago and I feel the reply would be of interest to not only just me but other here. - Good US economic news announced at 12.30, and good for the dollar. However, prior to the announcement (almost on top of it) the price shot against the dollar in a dramatic spike only to establish better ground minutes later.

The strength in the dollar makes sense but why the turn against it, and at such a dramatic speed. It is a market dealers tool to clear limit orders or was this a one off? I'm sure many of us would like to know the circumstances of this and as important what strategy could we adopt in the future.

 

[Welshmal]

morning!
GBP/USD 7-8 Break out 17823/17750
Euro/usd 1-8 b/o 11873/11828 Short at 11827

 

[The Wanderer]

These are my calculations for 1 am -8 am system.

Euro - Long 1.1893. Short 1827.

JPY -Long 113.16 Short 112.19

Cable -Long 1.7864 Short 1.7750

CHF -Long 3073 Short 3073

NB All opening gaps GREATER than 60.

?? possible big number resistence @1900 for Euro long.

?? possible big number support for CHF @ 3000.I have placed my short order @2970

 

[The Wanderer]

Hi Mal

I made high for Euro 1892 but this was on bar EXPIRING at 1am UK time i.e.20.00 US time.I understood that this should be included as part of the 1am -8 am system but if I am wrong apologies all round.

FXCM charts used.

Possible that I have "read the system " incorrectly.

Any thoughts out there ?

 

[Robb]

TheWanderer

Just a quick point, but isn't the spot on system 7-10? Apologies if your 8-10 is something different.

 

[The Wanderer]

Robb

As I understand it we use the 3 bars 7 am -8 am 8 am - 9am and 9 am - 10 am which is what I based my figures on.

You are quite right - 7 am to 10 am is a much better description.

Apologies all round.

 

[Robb]

TheW - Just me being a bit doh! I still haven't had enough coffee yet

 

[The Wanderer]

Robb.

No need to apololgise-my fault.

My excuse is that :

a) I was rushing a bit to get out to work last night although all other details should be accurate.

b) Daughters were running round the house still in hysterics after seeing Westlife on Friday night.

How sad can it get ????.

Trades triggered on 1 am -8 am system this morning :

Euro -Short.

JPY- Long.

Cable-Short.

Still waiting for trigger on Swissy

 

[waytogo]

Welshmal

there was a rumour on Fri that someone (in Germany?) was running stops just before the news announcement at 1:30. Certainly has all the appearances of that, and whoever was doing it must have been highly confident in the outcome of the news - just part of the game though.

Waytogo

 

[TheBramble]

The strength in the dollar makes sense but why the turn against it, and at such a dramatic speed. It is a market dealers tool to clear limit orders or was this a one off? I'm sure many of us would like to know the circumstances of this and as important what strategy could we adopt in the future.

Strategy to adopt for the future? - Don't second-guess what you think the market will do in response to news.

 

[Welshmal]

Thanks waytogo for that info. What would be of great use to know; was this a one off or is the huge drop in the dollar (lasting seconds) prior to establishjing better ground (based on good news) is frequently seen?

 

[Tullibody]

Anybody else having problems with d4f this AM; v. slow response to orders, nobody to talk to/reply to msgs, stuff like that?

 

[Welshmal]

Yes I am - I have put in a complaint. Failed to respond to my position requests and phones on message service.
Concerned as they have a lot of my money on deposit. will let you know if they respond to my complaint.

 

[FibCouple]

Survival is the key!

Very interesting postings; it's very much a case of taking the system and adapting to your own objectives.

May I repaeat my posting from several messages ago and I feel the reply would be of interest to not only just me but other here. - Good US economic news announced at 12.30, and good for the dollar. However, prior to the announcement (almost on top of it) the price shot against the dollar in a dramatic spike only to establish better ground minutes later.

The strength in the dollar makes sense but why the turn against it, and at such a dramatic speed. It is a market dealers tool to clear limit orders or was this a one off? I'm sure many of us would like to know the circumstances of this and as important what strategy could we adopt in the future.

Hi Welshmal

The way I see it, it doesn't really matter why market did what it did. The point of the matter is to decide what will I do if the market does something. Whether it was market makers shaking off the punters who were short before the ride down, whether it was a rumour before the exact meeting or whatever, it doesn't help me to make money. Its not important!

You can trade fundamentals & you can trade before these meetings. But you better have deep pockets & good risk management to survive. Otherwise, an excursion of nearly 300 pips in 10 minutes can do serious damage to an account. And remember, its not only about making money. Its about making money but containing the risk as well. 150 pip profit in 5 minutes is great but it can be other way round as well. Hence the risk management, to ensure that you survive in the game long enough to have learnt your lessons & start making real money.

Regards