Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday June 19 2006


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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 20 08:30 Building Permits May 1960K 1961K 1973K
Jun 20 08:30 Housing Starts May 1900K 1860K 1849K
Jun 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/16 NA NA -980K
Jun 22 08:30 Initial Claims 06/17 315K NA 295K
Jun 22 10:00 Leading Indicators May -0.6% -0.4% -0.1%
Jun 23 08:30 Durable Orders May -0.5% 0.8% -4.4%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2480
GBP/USD LONG 1.8300
USD Index SHORT 86.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: We have spent the best part of two weeks trying to base above 1.2500, and it seems that we need some more time yet. Today, prices should hold above 1.2550 (78.6% of the move higher from 1.2525 to 1.2675) and move from there back to test the 1.2675 level. Above here should see a quick move to 1.2700 and then 1.2800. In general, we should try to hold above 1.2525 (last week's small spike low), but as we have not yet resumed bullish momentum, and until 1.2675 is cleared, we have to allow for more dips towards and even below that level. As we write this, hourly conditions are becoming oversold and an hourly reversal pattern is trying to form on the charts, so perhaps we have already seen the low of the day/week.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability FAIR


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: No Change: Buy dips to 1.2580, stops below 1.2520. First target 1.2680 then 1.2800.

Chart: If we can hold 1.2550/1.2520, we could see a very sharp rally this week.

 

[neil]

Spam ?

 

[barjon]

mmm, i've removed advertising link

 

[forex618]

My apologies. I had also removed the link. Won't happen again

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday June 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.



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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 20 08:30 Building Permits May 1960K 1961K 1973K
Jun 20 08:30 Housing Starts May 1900K 1860K 1849K
Jun 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/16 NA NA -980K
Jun 22 08:30 Initial Claims 06/17 315K NA 295K
Jun 22 10:00 Leading Indicators May -0.6% -0.4% -0.1%
Jun 23 08:30 Durable Orders May -0.5% 0.8% -4.4%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2480
GBP/USD LONG 1.8300
USD Index SHORT 86.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: No change to the technicals, despite a small drop yesterday, remaining well within the reversal range of last week. We have spent the best part of two weeks trying to base above 1.2500, and it seems that we need some more time yet. Today, prices should hold above 1.2550 (78.6% of the move higher from 1.2525 to 1.2675) and move from there back to test the 1.2675 level. Above here should see a quick move to 1.2700 and then 1.2800. In general, we should try to hold above 1.2525 (last week's small spike low), but as we have not yet resumed bullish momentum, and until 1.2675 is cleared, we have to allow for more dips towards and even below that level. As we write this, hourly conditions are becoming oversold and an hourly reversal pattern is trying to form on the charts, so perhaps we have already seen the low of the day/week.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability FAIR


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: No Change: Buy dips to 1.2580, stops below 1.2520. First target 1.2680 then 1.2800.

Chart: Still trying to base, and perhaps just starting in the last hour or so.

 

[rossored]

I've removed your URL again - from both posts. Presumably you put it back after Jon removed it yesterday, judging from the editing time on the post? Not clever.

This is your last warning - we don't tolerate this kind of thing, so further posting of your URL will result in you finding it somewhat difficult to access the site.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday June 22 2006

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 20 08:30 Building Permits May 1960K 1961K 1973K
Jun 20 08:30 Housing Starts May 1900K 1860K 1849K
Jun 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/16 NA NA -980K
Jun 22 08:30 Initial Claims 06/17 315K NA 295K
Jun 22 10:00 Leading Indicators May -0.6% -0.4% -0.1%
Jun 23 08:30 Durable Orders May -0.5% 0.8% -4.4%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2480
GBP/USD LONG 1.8300
USD Index SHORT 86.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A small rally yesterday has pushed the Euro back up to the range high at 1.2675. We must break above here to set off the next round of buying, and with a bit of luck we will do so early today. If not, it won't be the end of the World, and we shall then allow for another day or two spent between 1.2500 and 1.2700. A weekly close above 1.2630 would complete another "doji" reversal candle on weekly charts and set us up for a rally before month end.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2600, stops below 1.2520. Add on a close above 1.2680 for 1.2800.

Chart: Hopefully a break above 1.2675 will spark a rally to 1.2840 over coming days.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday June 26 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 1160K 1150K 1198K
Jun 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 103.0 103.0 103.2
Jun 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 6.60M 6.62M 6.76M
Jun 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/23 NA NA 1385K
Jun 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Jun 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 5.3% 5.6% 5.3%
Jun 29 08:30 Initial Claims 06/24 310K NA 308K
Jun 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 36 35 35
Jun 29 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Income May 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%
Jun 30 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 82.4 82.5 82.4
Jun 30 10:00 Chicago PMI Jun 59.0 59.0 61.5

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro dipped to a low of 1.2470 on Friday, amidst general dollar buying last week - with some currencies like the South African Rand losing over 8.5% against the greenback during the frenzy. We feel this is some sort of clear-out before another round of dollar weakness, and as the dollar is very overbought across the board, a correction is expected at the very least. It's a pity we didn't get a "spike low" in the euro last week, which would have set us up for a nice rally this week, but perhaps we will get a form of "engulfing pattern" to signify that a medium term bottom is in place. Allow for more work above 1.2500, but below 1.2650, with a break above the latter needed to start the ball rolling for a serious recovery in the euro.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2500, stops below 1.2470. Add on a close above 1.2680 for 1.2800.

Chart: A half-hearted attempt at basing above 1.2470. Let's see how we go this week, with a break above 1.2680 needed to set a bottom in place.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday June 27 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 1160K 1150K 1198K
Jun 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 103.0 103.0 103.2
Jun 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 6.60M 6.62M 6.76M
Jun 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/23 NA NA 1385K
Jun 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Jun 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 5.3% 5.6% 5.3%
Jun 29 08:30 Initial Claims 06/24 310K NA 308K
Jun 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 36 35 35
Jun 29 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Income May 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%
Jun 30 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 82.4 82.5 82.4
Jun 30 10:00 Chicago PMI Jun 59.0 59.0 61.5

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: At last some hope for the euro as we see an "engulfing pattern" on daily charts as yesterday's candle body envelops Friday's. Prices should try to hold above 1.2530 (61.8% of yesterday's rally) with a break above 1.2680 really getting things going for a strong weekly close. Until then, allow for more work in the current range.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2550, stops below 1.2470. Add on a close above 1.2680 for 1.2800.

Chart: Trying to bottom in earnest at the 1.2500 level.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday June 28 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 1160K 1150K 1198K
Jun 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 103.0 103.0 103.2
Jun 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 6.60M 6.62M 6.76M
Jun 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/23 NA NA 1385K
Jun 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Jun 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 5.3% 5.6% 5.3%
Jun 29 08:30 Initial Claims 06/24 310K NA 308K
Jun 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 36 35 35
Jun 29 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Income May 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%
Jun 30 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 82.4 82.5 82.4
Jun 30 10:00 Chicago PMI Jun 59.0 59.0 61.5

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A tiny range yesterday with a slightly higher high, and no changes to the outlook. Prices should try to hold above 1.2530 (61.8% of Monday's rally) with a break above 1.2680 really getting things going for a strong weekly close. Until then, allow for more work in the current range.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2550, stops below 1.2470. Add on a close above 1.2680 for 1.2800.

Chart: Trying to bottom in earnest at the 1.2500 level.




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GBP/USD

Medium Term Trend: Still working in what can only be described as a "bearish flag" The only saving grace is that the pound is very oversold in the context of a long term uptrend. We should try to hold above 1.8100 again today, and if we can break out above the top of the flag, we should get a strong rally towards 1.8450/1.8550. If 1.8100 fails, further support lies at 1.8040/1.8000, and we can't rule out a visit to there which, unbelievably, would mean a thousand point drop in cable since last month. This all means that the pound is extremely oversold and unlikely to go much lower. Longer term, we still favor a rally back to 1.9000 and then higher.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.8300

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.8170, stops under 1.8100. Re-buy at 1.8050, stops under 1.8000. Target 1.8500.

Chart: Not looking very perky at all - we need to negate the potential bearish flag to get some more upside going.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Friday June 30 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jun 26 10:00 New Home Sales May 1160K 1150K 1198K
Jun 27 10:00 Consumer Confidence Jun 103.0 103.0 103.2
Jun 27 10:00 Existing Home Sales May 6.60M 6.62M 6.76M
Jun 28 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/23 NA NA 1385K
Jun 29 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q1 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Jun 29 08:30 GDP-Final Q1 5.3% 5.6% 5.3%
Jun 29 08:30 Initial Claims 06/24 310K NA 308K
Jun 29 10:00 Help-Wanted Index May 36 35 35
Jun 29 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Income May 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
Jun 30 08:30 Personal Spending May 0.3% 0.4% 0.6%
Jun 30 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Jun 82.4 82.5 82.4
Jun 30 10:00 Chicago PMI Jun 59.0 59.0 61.5

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A dramatic rally off the support base near 1.2500 has seen the euro gain over 200 pips and erase most of the losses of the past two weeks. Importantly, we have also broken above 1.2680, which was the range top limiting the euro's advance on two previous occasions. The scene is now clearly bullish and 1.2680 should now act as support on any dips, with rallies targeting 1.2780 and then 1.2980. Allow for some consolidation down to 1.2680 today, with more gains later in the day. A strong close today will create weekly and monthly reversal patterns, setting the euro up for another attack on 1.3000 early next month.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2480

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2680, stops below 1.2600, target 1.2780 and then 1.2980.

Chart: A strong close today will maintain the weekly "bullish engulfing candle" and set us up for another shot at 1.3000 next month.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 05 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 05 10:00 Factory Orders May 0.1% 0.1% -1.8%
Jul 06 08:30 Initial Claims 07/01 315K 315K 313K
Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 59.0 60.1
Jul 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/30 NA NA -3329K
Jul 07 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jul 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Jul 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 160K 160K 75K
Jul 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro gained over 300 pips last week and then slumped into very quiet trading during the early part of this week, especially with the US market on holiday yesterday. the inability to achieve more gains though, has seen the euro dropping back towards 1.2700 today. The overall pattern is bullish whilst we hold above 1.2470, and dips should be limited to 1.2700/1.2660, and we cannot rule out a further drop to 1.2600. However, as long as these levels hold, we should be able to break above 1.2840 later in this week or next and progress higher towards 1.3000. Remember that the NFP report is out on Friday, so we shall have to allow for the usual volatility and unpredictability that the report brings.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700/1.2660, stops under 1.2650. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Allow for some profit taking and dips to 1.2700 - 1.2600 before another rally.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday July 06 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 05 10:00 Factory Orders May 0.1% 0.1% -1.8%
Jul 06 08:30 Initial Claims 07/01 315K 315K 313K
Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 59.0 60.1
Jul 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/30 NA NA -3329K
Jul 07 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jul 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Jul 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 160K 160K 75K
Jul 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Dropping down to first support at 1.2700, the euro has unwound some of the overbought conditions created by last week's rally. Hopefully, 1.2700 will hold, but we cannot rule out another dip towards 1.2650/1.2600. All in all, whilst we are above these levels, the uptrend remains healthy and we should try to reach back up towards 1.2900 and then 1.3000 in coming days - probably next week. For today allow for a rally to 1.2780/1.2800 and then possibly a drop back to test support at 1.2700 again. If we should drop below 1.2700, only re-buy on clear signs of basing against support levels lower down.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700/1.2660, stops under 1.2650. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Dropping to first support and we must allow for a little more weakness to 1.2650/1.2600.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Friday July 07 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 05 10:00 Factory Orders May 0.1% 0.1% -1.8%
Jul 06 08:30 Initial Claims 07/01 315K 315K 313K
Jul 06 10:00 ISM Services Jun 59.0 59.0 60.1
Jul 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 06/30 NA NA -3329K
Jul 07 08:30 Average Workweek Jun 33.8 33.8 33.8
Jul 07 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jun 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Jul 07 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jun 160K 160K 75K
Jul 07 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jun 4.7% 4.6% 4.6%

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8100
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Very little change since yesterday and although the euro has rallied gently off support at 1.2700, it is non too convincing at this stage. With the all important jobs report later today, there is little point in trying to predict the fine points of the currency direction, and we shall have to stick with our broad outline until the market has seen the numbers. Hopefully, 1.2700 will hold, but we cannot rule out another dip towards 1.2650/1.2600. All in all, whilst we are above these levels, the uptrend remains healthy and we should try to reach back up towards 1.2900 and then 1.3000 in coming days - probably next week. For today allow for a rally to 1.2780/1.2800 and then possibly a drop back to test support at 1.2700 again. If we should drop below 1.2700, only re-buy on clear signs of basing against support levels lower down.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2700/1.2660, stops under 1.2650. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: A small rally yesterday, but expect a mixed picture until later today. Buy bigger dips.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday July 10 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
Jul 10 15:00 Consumer Credit May $5.5B $3.2B $10.6B
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$64.0B -$65.0B -$63.4B
Jul 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/07 NA NA -2421K
Jul 13 08:30 Initial Claims 07/08 320K NA 313K
Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $20.0B $20.0B $22.9B
Jul 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Jul 14 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 85.0 85.3 84.9
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro rallied somewhat after the NFP report on Friday, but seriously lacked conviction and follow through, leaving the technical charts in somewhat of a disarray. With a large "spike high" on hourly, daily and weekly charts, it appears that bullish momentum is fading, and that we might expect some more downside testing this week. Only a push above 1.2900 would negate the potential for further immediate-term dips and trading is likely to be dominated by an early move this week - either pushing strongly above 1.2900 or dipping down to 1.2700 and perhaps as low as 1.2600. In this event, we shall have to wait and see which camp moves first and trade accordingly. Whilst we remain above 1.2600, and certainly 1.2500, the trend for a stronger euro remains intact.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy dips to 1.2720, stops under 1.2690. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: A rally and a spike high leaves the charts in a mixed state.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Tuesday July 11 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
Jul 10 15:00 Consumer Credit May $5.5B $3.2B $10.6B
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$64.0B -$65.0B -$63.4B
Jul 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/07 NA NA -2421K
Jul 13 08:30 Initial Claims 07/08 320K NA 313K
Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $20.0B $20.0B $22.9B
Jul 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Jul 14 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 85.0 85.3 84.9
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Dropping down to first support at 1.2720 as expected. Price action here has not yet shown signs of basing, so we must allow for another drop to 1.2620, where we will once again look for signs that the euro is trying to make a short term bottom.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Perhaps try small longs at 1.2720, stops under 1.2690. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Dropping to first support at 1.2620, but not basing yet.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 12 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
Jul 10 15:00 Consumer Credit May $5.5B $3.2B $10.6B
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$64.0B -$65.0B -$63.4B
Jul 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/07 NA NA -2421K
Jul 13 08:30 Initial Claims 07/08 320K NA 313K
Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $20.0B $20.0B $22.9B
Jul 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Jul 14 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 85.0 85.3 84.9
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Choppy price action yesterday saw the euro drop to 1.2700 and then rebound sharply back to 1.2780, forming a small "spike low" on daily charts and keeping the short term bullish scenario intact. 1.2700 is becoming increasingly important as a short term support level and any dips will hopefully continue to hold above there. A breach below would probably mean a fairly dramatic drop to at least 1.2620 and perhaps even 1.2500. Allow for more choppy work early in the day, with a rally to 1.2850 later on.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Unchanged. Perhaps try small longs at 1.2720, stops under 1.2690. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: 7 Days of sideways work, but trying to hold above 1.2700.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Thursday July 13 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.
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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 10 10:00 Wholesale Inventories May 0.6% 0.5% 0.9%
Jul 10 15:00 Consumer Credit May $5.5B $3.2B $10.6B
Jul 12 08:30 Trade Balance May -$64.0B -$65.0B -$63.4B
Jul 12 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/07 NA NA -2421K
Jul 13 08:30 Initial Claims 07/08 320K NA 313K
Jul 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Jun $20.0B $20.0B $22.9B
Jul 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jun NA NA 0.6%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jun 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Jul 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jun 0.3% 0.5% 0.5%
Jul 14 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul 85.0 85.3 84.9
Jul 14 10:00 Business Inventories May

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: 1.2700 was too tempting to resist and price action yesterday took the euro below here to 1.2670. Interestingly though, there was no follow through and the decline halted in mid-flight, with the price now back above 1.2700. We shall have to see how this plays out today, but whilst now above 1.2670 (50% retracement level) we expect that the euro will try to reach back up towards 1.2850. Eventually, a break above here should propel us higher still to 1.3000.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2710, stops under 1.2670. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2620, stops under 1.2600, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Trying to hold above the 50% retracement level, but we must allow for dips to the channel bottom and 61.8% level at 1.2620.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Monday July 17 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 17 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 20.0 21.8 29.0
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 82.0% 81.9% 81.7%
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.5% 0.4% -0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 18 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Jul 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May NA NA $46.7B
Jul 19 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1930K 1920K 1946K
Jul 19 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 19 08:30 CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Jul 19 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1920K 1915K 1957K
Jul 19 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/14 NA NA -5985K
Jul 20 08:30 Initial Claims 07/15 320K NA 332K
Jul 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun 0.2% 0.1% -0.6%
Jul 20 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 12.5 13.1
Jul 20 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 29

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The Euro is just about clinging to the 62% retracement of the move upwards over the past three weeks, at 1.2620, and might hold above there again today. Whilst above here, dips are still seen as buying opportunities in a quiet Forex market which has taken the back stage to geo-political tensions. Below 1.2620 will probably see a full correction back to 1.2500, where the single currency will probably try to base once again.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2620, stops under 1.2590. Re-buy on a further drop to 1.2520, stops under 1.2490, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Trying to hold above the 61.8% retracement level.

 

[forex618]

Daily Currency report for Wednesday July 18 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Jul 17 08:30 NY Empire State Index Jul 20.0 21.8 29.0
Jul 17 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jun 82.0% 81.9% 81.7%
Jul 17 09:15 Industrial Production Jun 0.5% 0.4% -0.1%
Jul 18 08:30 Core PPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 18 08:30 PPI Jun 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Jul 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases May NA NA $46.7B
Jul 19 08:30 Building Permits Jun 1930K 1920K 1946K
Jul 19 08:30 Core CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Jul 19 08:30 CPI Jun 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Jul 19 08:30 Housing Starts Jun 1920K 1915K 1957K
Jul 19 10:30 Crude Inventories 07/14 NA NA -5985K
Jul 20 08:30 Initial Claims 07/15 320K NA 332K
Jul 20 10:00 Leading Indicators Jun 0.2% 0.1% -0.6%
Jul 20 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Jul 13.0 12.5 13.1
Jul 20 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jun 29

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V2 Model medium term directional summary

This table shows the medium term direction of each currency pair and the reversal level, where we will adjust our medium term view and consider the trend to have changed.

Currency pair Current direction Reversal level
EUR/USD LONG 1.2470
GBP/USD LONG 1.8315
USD Index SHORT 87.50

EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Very little change in a quiet day's trading yesterday. The euro has dropped to 1.2500, the low in June and the 38% retracement level of this year's rally from 1.1650. The euro will probably try to hold above here again today, always allowing for spike low to form just below 1.2500. Further out, if we can hold above roughly 1.2500 this week and the rest of this month, then chances of a rally back to the highs near 1.3000 are good. A failure at 1.2500, not our favored proposition, will possibly lead to another more dramatic dip as low as 1.2300 before a new bottom can be made.

Trend Phase: Direction UP. Probability GOOD


Trend Reversal Level: 1.2470

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2500, stops under 1.2470, target 1.2800 and then 1.2950.

Chart: Trying to cling to support at 1.2500.