Forex618 Daily Currency report

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 23 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 6.60M 6.58M 6.62M
Aug 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/18 NA NA -1607K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul -1.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Aug 24 08:30 Initial Claims 08/19 310K NA 312K
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul 1085K 1100K 1131K

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro has dropped back to support at 1.2780, postponing the next move to 1.3000 by several days, perhaps weeks. Generally, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, the trend remains upwards, but levels are not very clear and we should expect many more "spikes" and "false breaks" as the euro grapples with these very important long term resistance levels. Today we should try to hold above 1.2780 again, but we need to see more evidence of better support emerging at this level before we can be more confident in this outcome. Only a break below 1.2700 will change the short term picture, which would then probably see a full retracement to 1.2450.

Strategy today: Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2780, stops below 1.2780, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: More messy moves below 1.2900 mean that we might have to wait a little longer for a range break higher.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday August 25 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 23 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jul 6.60M 6.58M 6.62M
Aug 23 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/18 NA NA -1607K
Aug 24 08:30 Durable Orders Jul -1.0% 0.0% 2.9%
Aug 24 08:30 Initial Claims 08/19 310K NA 312K
Aug 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jul 1085K 1100K 1131K

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: More ups and downs yesterday mean that the market is trying to find direction. Today should bring some relief, as many Fridays do, and we should get a definitive move one way or the other - either down to 1.2700 (maybe with a spike low just below) or up to 1.2900. Whilst the shorter term picture is muddled, generally, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, the trend remains upwards, but levels are not very clear and we should expect many more "spikes" and "false breaks" as the euro grapples with these very important long term resistance levels. Today, allow for a bit more work between 1.2750 (perhaps 1.2700) and 1.2850, before a break above 1.2850 signals a resumption of the trend higher.

Strategy today: Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2750/1.2700, stops below 1.2680, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: Unchanged: More messy moves below 1.2900 mean that we might have to wait a little longer for a range break higher.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday August 28 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: After being in a 200 point range for most of August, it is likely that we will try to set some new direction either this week or next. With a busy economic calendar this week, including the jobs report on Friday, perhaps now is the time. Until we get something more decisive than the current range we shall have to accept the inevitable "spikes" and "false breaks" within the range. However, having said all that, we continue to feel that the euro should try to base somewhere between 1.2700 and 1.2650 for a rally back to 1.3000. Friday's small "Doji" candle might just have formed the interim base we need to start proceedings, and we shall watch for confirmation ( a break above 1.2850 and then 1.2950) Below 1.2650 and we will have to adjust the view and allow for a full retracement to 1.2450.

Strategy today: Unchanged - Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2750/1.2700, stops below 1.2680, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: Sideways since May this year. Not very exciting.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday August 29 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A small bounce from 1.2720 has enabled the euro to turn back into the range of the past 4 weeks and set its sights on the top at 1.2900 again. There is still no significant change to the technical picture - After being in a 200 point range for most of August, it is likely that we will try to set some new direction either this week or next. With a busy economic calendar this week, including the jobs report on Friday, perhaps now is the time. Until we get something more decisive than the current range we shall have to accept the inevitable "spikes" and "false breaks" within the range. However, having said all that, we continue to feel that the euro should try to base somewhere between 1.2700 and 1.2650 for a rally back to 1.3000. Friday's small "Doji" candle might just have formed the interim base we need to start proceedings, and we shall watch for confirmation ( a break above 1.2850 and then 1.2950) Below 1.2650 and we will have to adjust the view and allow for a full retracement to 1.2450.

Strategy today: Unchanged - Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2750/1.2700, stops below 1.2680, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: A bounce from 1.2720 might just be another interim low.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday August 30 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: More intraday volatility and the end result was a marginal new daily high, but not much else. Until we close above 1.2950 or below 1.2700, we shall have to allow for much more of the same - range bound and difficult trading conditions. Longer term, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, we feel that the euro is in an uptrend and will test 1.3000 sooner or later - probably in September.

Strategy today: Unchanged - Buy dips on signs of basing above 1.2750/1.2700, stops below 1.2680, target 1.2900 and then 1.3000.

Chart: Sharp intraday moves keep the euro traders guessing.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday August 31 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A 38 pip range yesterday has not added to the picture at all, but at least today is the last day of the summer holidays, the month and the 3rd quarter, so perhaps we shall leave the doldrums behind next week. Until until then, and until we close above 1.2950 or below 1.2700, we shall have to allow for much more of the same - range bound and difficult trading conditions. Longer term, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, we feel that the euro is in an uptrend and will test 1.3000 sooner or later - probably in September.

Strategy today: The strategy today and tomorrow is most certainly a "wait and see" approach. It is almost impossible to speculate on the next move and there is little point in trying to pick direction or levels right now. However, any dips to 1.2720/00 are worth trying small longs from, stops below 1.2640.

Chart: Perhaps a final dip to the red trend line will ignite some action...




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GBP/USD

Medium Term Trend: Edging higher and closing above 1.9000 yesterday. this means that the pound "should" try to hold onto its gains and push higher towards first stop at 1.9100 and then on towards 1.9300. A lot actually depends on how the dollar ends this month against the majors, and with a huge amount of data today and tomorrow, including the jobs report, things could get a little bit messy. Despite all that, with a bit of luck, the pound will hold onto its gains and stay roughly above 1.9000, perhaps dipping to 1.8900 at worst. The 1.8800 area has now formed a rather convincing support base and any more determined dips should hold above there in the medium term.

Strategy today: Try small longs on dips to 1.9000/1.8950, stops below 1.8900, target 1.9100 and then 1.9300.

Chart: A daily close above 1.9000 will have forced some re-thinking.




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USD/JPY

Medium Term Trend: Pushing back to 117.40 and confirming our suspicions that we may not have topped just yet. We shall have to watch what happens here on the second attempt. A break higher may see the dollar heading higher to test 118.00, but also watch for a sharp hourly reversal from 117.40, which would give a signal to sell. Overall, allow for a bit more activity between 116.80 and 118.00 this week before possibly a sharp fall late in the week. A daily close below 116.50 is the minimum needed to confirm that a new top is in place.

Strategy today: Stand aside if possible and wait for clear signs of topping before selling, stops well above 118.00.

Chart: More action at the 117.40 mark. Watch for signs of hourly reversal between here and 118.00.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday September 01 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Aug 29 10:00 Consumer Confidence Aug 105.0 103.7 106.5
Aug 29 14:00 FOMC Minutes Aug 8
Aug 30 08:30 Chain Deflator-Prel. Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Aug 30 08:30 GDP-Prel. Q2 3.0% 3.0% 2.5%
Aug 30 10:30 Crude Inventories 08/25 NA NA -643K
Aug 31 08:30 Initial Claims 08/26 315K NA 313K
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Income Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.6%
Aug 31 08:30 Personal Spending Jul 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Aug 31 10:00 Chicago PMI Aug 56.5 57.0 57.9
Aug 31 10:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.6% 0.5% 1.2%
Aug 31 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jul 33 33 33
Sep 01 00:00 Auto Sales Aug 5.4M 5.4M 5.6M
Sep 01 00:00 Truck Sales Aug 7.4M 7.3M 7.6M
Sep 01 08:30 Average Workweek Aug 33.9 33.9 33.9
Sep 01 08:30 Hourly Earnings Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Sep 01 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Aug 120K 125K 113K
Sep 01 08:30 Unemployment Rate Aug 4.7% 4.7% 4.8%
Sep 01 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug 78.7 79.5 78.7
Sep 01 10:00 Construction Spending Jul 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Sep 01 10:00 ISM Index Aug 55.0 55.0 54.7

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Up and down like a yo-yo but essentially just moving across the page. This range is mature and is likely to break in the next week or two, but until we close above 1.2950 or below 1.2700, we shall have to allow for much more of the same - range bound and difficult trading conditions. Longer term, whilst above 1.2700, and certainly 1.2450, we feel that the euro is in an uptrend and will test 1.3000 sooner or later - probably in September. In the short term, with a bit of luck 1.2780 (61.8% retracement of the recent rally) will hold, sending the euro back towards the top of the summer range at 1.2900-1.2950.

Strategy today: Try small longs at 1.2800, stops below 1.2770. Watch again for basing at 1.2700, stops below 1.2650.

Chart: Perhaps a chance to form a short term base at 1.2800.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday September 04 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q2 1.6% 1.6% 1.1%
Sep 06 10:00 ISM Services Aug NA 55.0 54.8
Sep 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/01 NA NA 2481K
Sep 06 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Sep 07 08:30 Initial Claims 09/02 315K NA 316K
Sep 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Sep 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Jul $7.5B $7.0B $10.3B

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: At last we are in the new month and the euro has already shown some signs of life. Remember that we have been stuck in a range between 1.2700 and 1.2900 (most of the time) since late July, so we can't get too excited about anything unless/until we break outside this zone. This is likely to happen this month, but there may yet be some work to do before that happens. We continue to prefer the stronger euro scenario, and feel that it is only a matter of time before the 1.2950 level is removed by a breakout rally. Dips continue to be buying opportunities, with the support now at 1.2750. Only below 1.2700 would the rally be postponed, and we would then have to allow for another dip to 1.2650, and perhaps even 1.2450.

Strategy today: Try small longs at 1.2800, stops below 1.2750. Watch again for basing at 1.2700, stops well below 1.2650.

Chart: Looking a little more perky, but still range-bound.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net daily currency report

USD/JPY

Medium Term Trend: Plunging to 115.80 and closing well below 116.50 suggests that the dollar has topped at 117.40. We have now retraced 50% of the rally from 114.00, so we expect that there will be some consolidation and correction from 115.80 (allowing for a dip to 115.30 first if momentum carries it lower) Rallies should now be capped at 116.50/60 and this would be a good place to sell for another test of the low 115's

Strategy today: Buy dips to 115.80/30, stops below 115.20. Sell rallies to 116.40/60, stops above 116.80.

Chart: Allow for a rally to 116.50.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday September 06 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.


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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q2 1.6% 1.6% 1.1%
Sep 06 10:00 ISM Services Aug NA 55.0 54.8
Sep 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/01 NA NA 2481K
Sep 06 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Sep 07 08:30 Initial Claims 09/02 315K NA 316K
Sep 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Sep 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Jul $7.5B $7.0B $10.3B

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A bit lower again, but meaningless. Remember that we have been stuck in a range between 1.2700 and 1.2900 (most of the time) since late July, so we can't get too excited about anything unless/until we break outside this zone. This is likely to happen this month, but there may yet be some work to do before that happens. We continue to prefer the stronger euro scenario, and feel that it is only a matter of time before the 1.2950 level is removed by a breakout rally. Dips continue to be buying opportunities, with the support now at 1.2750. Only below 1.2700 would the rally be postponed, and we would then have to allow for another dip to 1.2650, and perhaps even 1.2450.

Strategy today: Unchanged: Try small longs at 1.2800, stops below 1.2750. Watch again for basing at 1.2700, stops well below 1.2650.

Chart: Enough already! Time for a move - any move!

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday September 07 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 06 08:30 Productivity-Rev. Q2 1.6% 1.6% 1.1%
Sep 06 10:00 ISM Services Aug NA 55.0 54.8
Sep 06 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/01 NA NA 2481K
Sep 06 14:00 Fed's Beige Book
Sep 07 08:30 Initial Claims 09/02 315K NA 316K
Sep 07 10:00 Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
Sep 08 15:00 Consumer Credit Jul $7.5B $7.0B $10.3B

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Another small "spike low" to 1.2770 shows that there is good support above 1.2750. However, we have been stuck in a range between 1.2700 and 1.2900 (most of the time) since late July, so we can't get too excited about anything unless/until we break outside this zone. This is likely to happen this month, but there may yet be some work to do before that happens. We continue to prefer the stronger euro scenario, and feel that it is only a matter of time before the 1.2950 level is removed by a breakout rally. Dips continue to be buying opportunities, with the support now at 1.2750. Only below 1.2700 would the rally be postponed, and we would then have to allow for another dip to 1.2650, and perhaps even 1.2450.

Strategy today: Unchanged: Try small longs at 1.2800, stops below 1.2750. Watch again for basing at 1.2700, stops well below 1.2650.

Chart: Yesterday's small "spike low" might be enough to trigger another upside attack.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday September 11 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 12 08:30 Trade Balance Jul -$65.0B -$65.5B -$64.8B
Sep 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/08 NA NA -2212K
Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$67.0B -$64.0B -$51.3B
Sep 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA 0.2%
Sep 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA -0.1%
Sep 14 08:30 Initial Claims 09/09 315K 315K 310K
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug -0.2% -0.1% 1.4%
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
Sep 15 08:30 Core CPI Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Sep 15 08:30 CPI Aug 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Sep 20.0 14.0 10.3
Sep 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 82.4% 82.5% 82.4%
Sep 15 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 84.0 83.5 82.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The euro has dropped to the 1.2650 level, where we expected it might try to reach once 1.2700 was broken. This is a key technical and structural level and the euro is very oversold, along with a variety of other currencies. We continue to expect that the euro will try to base in September and rally to new highs, and the 1.2650 level is an ideal spot to doe so. Watch for attempts to reverse from here early in this week, with a break above 1.2700 needed to start proceedings and a rally through 1.2800 to confirm that another attempt higher is beginning.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2660, stops below 1.2630, target 1.2700 and then 1.2800

Chart: An interesting technical set-up, plus oversold conditions, should allow the euro to base at 1.2650.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday September 12 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 12 08:30 Trade Balance Jul -$65.0B -$65.5B -$64.8B
Sep 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/08 NA NA -2212K
Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$67.0B -$64.0B -$51.3B
Sep 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA 0.2%
Sep 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA -0.1%
Sep 14 08:30 Initial Claims 09/09 315K 315K 310K
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug -0.2% -0.1% 1.4%
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
Sep 15 08:30 Core CPI Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Sep 15 08:30 CPI Aug 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Sep 20.0 14.0 10.3
Sep 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 82.4% 82.5% 82.4%
Sep 15 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 84.0 83.5 82.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: A bounce from 1.2650 yesterday, but not a great deal of follow through yet. 1.2650 is a key technical and structural level and the euro is very oversold, along with a variety of other currencies. We continue to expect that the euro will try to base in September and rally to new highs, and the 1.2650 level is an ideal spot to do so. Watch for attempts to reverse from here early in this week, with a break above 1.2700 needed to start proceedings and a rally through 1.2800 to confirm that another attempt higher is beginning.

Strategy today: Unchanged: Buy at 1.2660, stops below 1.2630, target 1.2700 and then 1.2800

Chart: Trying to base at 1.2650.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Friday September 15 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 12 08:30 Trade Balance Jul -$65.0B -$65.5B -$64.8B
Sep 13 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/08 NA NA -2212K
Sep 13 14:00 Treasury Budget Aug -$67.0B -$64.0B -$51.3B
Sep 14 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Aug NA NA 0.2%
Sep 14 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Aug NA NA -0.1%
Sep 14 08:30 Initial Claims 09/09 315K 315K 310K
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales Aug -0.2% -0.1% 1.4%
Sep 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Aug 0.4% 0.3% 1.0%
Sep 14 10:00 Business Inventories Jul 0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
Sep 15 08:30 Core CPI Aug 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%
Sep 15 08:30 CPI Aug 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Sep 20.0 14.0 10.3
Sep 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Aug 82.4% 82.5% 82.4%
Sep 15 09:15 Industrial Production Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Sep 15 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Sep 84.0 83.5 82.0

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Half way through September, and we are at exactly the same price we were at at the beginning of August. Not exactly inspiring, and very little to add to the outlook. We have managed a close above 1.2700, which is the first small step upwards, but we need to power upwards today to form a weekly reversal pattern. As there is some important data out this afternoon from the US, we shall have to allow for yet more ranging between 1.2750 and 1.2650, before (hopefully) a break higher later on. Whilst we hold above 1.2650, dips are still seen as good medium term buying opportunities.

Strategy today: Unchanged: Buy at 1.2660, stops below 1.2630, target 1.2700 and then 1.2800

Chart: Trying to probe higher, but this is more like a damp squib than a rocket

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday September 19 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 18 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$215.0B -$213.5B -$208.7B
Sep 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul NA NA $75.1
Sep 19 08:30 Building Permits Aug 1745K 1750K 1763K
Sep 19 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Sep 19 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1765K 1770K 1795K
Sep 19 08:30 PPI Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sep 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/15 NA NA -2904K
Sep 20 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Sep 21 08:30 Initial Claims 09/16 315K NA 308K
Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Sep 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 13.0 14.0 18.5

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: An interesting day yesterday, with plenty of intraday "chop" during the news announcements and a classic bullish "piercing pattern" forming on daily charts after all was said and done. As always, until we see a concerted increase in volatility, we shall have to expect more smallish and fairly random moves around the current levels. Dips should hold above 1.2620, and rallies should eventually take the euro back to 1.2750, with a break above there probably triggering a stronger move to 1.2850/1.2900. As the euro is lagging behind the pound, perhaps it will try to catch up this week.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2680/50, stops below 1.2620, target 1.2750 and then 1.2850

Chart: Classic bullish "piercing pattern" against support at 1.2630.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Wednesday September 20 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.
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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 18 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$215.0B -$213.5B -$208.7B
Sep 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul NA NA $75.1
Sep 19 08:30 Building Permits Aug 1745K 1750K 1763K
Sep 19 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Sep 19 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1765K 1770K 1795K
Sep 19 08:30 PPI Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sep 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/15 NA NA -2904K
Sep 20 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Sep 21 08:30 Initial Claims 09/16 315K NA 308K
Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Sep 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 13.0 14.0 18.5

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Plenty of intraday volatility yesterday, fuelled by geo-political concerns and economic news, but an end result of almost zero momentum. Until we see a concerted increase in daily volatility, we shall have to expect more smallish and fairly random moves around the current levels. Dips should hold above 1.2620, and rallies should eventually take the euro back to 1.2750, with a break above there probably triggering a stronger move to 1.2850/1.2900. As the euro is lagging behind the pound, perhaps it will try to catch up this week.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2680/50, stops below 1.2620, target 1.2750 and then 1.2850

Chart: Still holding above support at 1.2630.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday September 21 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 18 08:30 Current Account Q2 -$215.0B -$213.5B -$208.7B
Sep 18 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Jul NA NA $75.1
Sep 19 08:30 Building Permits Aug 1745K 1750K 1763K
Sep 19 08:30 Core PPI Aug 0.2% 0.2% -0.3%
Sep 19 08:30 Housing Starts Aug 1765K 1770K 1795K
Sep 19 08:30 PPI Aug 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sep 20 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/15 NA NA -2904K
Sep 20 14:15 FOMC policy statement
Sep 21 08:30 Initial Claims 09/16 315K NA 308K
Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug -0.2% -0.2% -0.1%
Sep 21 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Sep 13.0 14.0 18.5

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: Back up to 1.2700, but no fireworks, and this is becoming boring. That means that an increase in volatility is likely as the week draws to an end and traders become frustrated with their positions. Until then, we shall have to expect more smallish and fairly random moves around the current levels. Dips should hold above 1.2620, and rallies should eventually take the euro back to 1.2750, with a break above there probably triggering a stronger move to 1.2850/1.2900. As the euro is lagging behind the pound, perhaps it will try to catch up this week.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2700/1.2680, stops below 1.2620, target 1.2750 and then 1.2850

Chart: No change, but possibly a small "diamond" reversal pattern forming...

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Monday September 25 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug 6.25M 6.25M 6.33M
Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 105.0 102.5 99.6
Sep 27 08:30 Durable Orders Aug 1.5% 0.8% -2.5%
Sep 27 10:00 New Home Sales Aug 1020K 1050K 1072K
Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/22 NA NA -2848K
Sep 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Sep 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q2 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Sep 28 08:30 Initial Claims 09/23 315K NA 318K
Sep 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Aug 32 32 32
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Sep 29 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep 84.4 85.0 84.4
Sep 29 10:00 Chicago PMI Sep 56.5 57.0 57.1

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EUR/USD

Medium Term Trend: The break above 1.2750 last week was important, when the euro rallied above retracement resistance and the 50 day moving average at around 1.2750. Unfortunately, there was little follow through and the "Doji" candle on Friday suggests we may have a little more consolidation at these levels before moving on higher. Dips should be contained above 1.2750 and certainly 1.2700, allowing the euro to pick up a little more bullish momentum this week, possibly reaching 1.2950/1.3000.

Strategy today: Buy at 1.2740/1.2720, stops below 1.2700, target 1.2850

Chart: Breaking higher but struggling to maintain momentum.

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Tuesday September 26 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug 6.25M 6.25M 6.33M
Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 105.0 102.5 99.6
Sep 27 08:30 Durable Orders Aug 1.5% 0.8% -2.5%
Sep 27 10:00 New Home Sales Aug 1020K 1050K 1072K
Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/22 NA NA -2848K
Sep 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Sep 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q2 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Sep 28 08:30 Initial Claims 09/23 315K NA 318K
Sep 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Aug 32 32 32
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Sep 29 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep 84.4 85.0 84.4
Sep 29 10:00 Chicago PMI Sep 56.5 57.0 57.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2615

S/R levels: 1.2700 - 1.2750, 1.2620 - 1.2670

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to S/R levels after an entry signal.

Medium term : Euro remains essentially range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.3000 and trending action is limited. We have managed a weekly close above the medium term SMA, which means we should head back up towards the top of the range, as long as 1.2600 holds.

Today: The euro dipped down towards support later yesterday and has held up above 1.2730. If this level holds, we should be able to rally back towards 1.2820 and then 1.2900. Before that, allow for more activity between 1.2730 and 1.2800, always allowing for the chance of another leg down to 1.2680/1.2700 first.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

 

[forex618]

Forex618.net Daily Currency report for Thursday September 28 2006

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 25 10:00 Existing Home Sales Aug 6.25M 6.25M 6.33M
Sep 26 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep 105.0 102.5 99.6
Sep 27 08:30 Durable Orders Aug 1.5% 0.8% -2.5%
Sep 27 10:00 New Home Sales Aug 1020K 1050K 1072K
Sep 27 10:30 Crude Inventories 09/22 NA NA -2848K
Sep 28 08:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q2 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
Sep 28 08:30 GDP-Final Q2 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Sep 28 08:30 Initial Claims 09/23 315K NA 318K
Sep 28 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Aug 32 32 32
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug 0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Sep 29 09:50 Mich Sentiment-Rev. Sep 84.4 85.0 84.4
Sep 29 10:00 Chicago PMI Sep 56.5 57.0 57.1

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2615

S/R levels: 1.2700 - 1.2750, 1.2620 - 1.2670

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to S/R levels after an entry signal.

Medium term : Euro remains essentially range-bound between 1.2600 and 1.3000 and trending action is limited. We have managed a weekly close above the medium term SMA, which means we should head back up towards the top of the range, as long as 1.2600 holds.

Today: No change: A little lower to the 78.6% retracement level at 1.2660, but not a great deal of follow through. With a bit of luck we will hold above here today and see renewed attempts to rally back up above 1.2800. Below 1.2600 and we would have to re-think and allow for a dip as low as 1.2450, the July low.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart: