Martin Kay Technical Analysis

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 30 March, 2015

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 2 white candles versus 8 black candles with a net of 6 black candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.
Three black candles has formed during the last three bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 7 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has decreased 0.77%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 121.404 to a low of 118.327.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
The Stochastic Oscillator is currently below 20. This is an indication of the security being in an "oversold" condition. No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 50 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 78 period(s) ago.

The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BEARISH signal.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 7 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Sell 7 period(s) ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 daily moving average
BELOW its 50 daily moving average
BELOW its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Mildly Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed above the lower Bollinger Band by 10.0%. Bollinger Bands are 25.47% narrower than normal. The current width of the Bollinger Bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 31 March, 2015

*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: SELL Euro Dollar / US Dollar
Sell Target: 1.0798
Sell Stop: 1.0923
Enter New SELL on OPEN and exit SELL positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(NOTE: Adjust Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting. This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 23 white candles versus 27 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
MACD is BULLISH as the MACD is above the signal line.
The MACD crossed above the signal line 6 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has increased 0.19%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.105 to a low of 1.066.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 192 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Buy 8 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of Euro Dollar / US Dollar are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 1 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 8 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
BELOW its 50 daily moving average
BELOW its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Very Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 47.7%. Bollinger Bands are 58.02% wider than normal.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 06 April, 2015

A white body has formed as prices closed higher than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 31 white candles versus 19 black candles with a net of 12 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 10 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 1.60%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 125 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 2 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 80 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 4 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 42.0%. Bollinger Bands are 46.89% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 0 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 07 April, 2015

*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: SELL Euro Dollar / US Dollar
Sell Target: 1.0884
Sell Stop: 1.1086
Enter New SELL on OPEN and exit SELL positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(NOTE: Adjust Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting. This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 4 white candles versus 6 black candles with a net of 2 black candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 23 white candles versus 27 black candles with a net of 4 black candles.
MACD is BULLISH as the MACD is above the signal line.
The MACD crossed above the signal line 11 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has increased 1.18%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.105 to a low of 1.066.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 197 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Buy 13 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of Euro Dollar / US Dollar are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a BUY 1 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 13 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
BELOW its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 22.9%. Bollinger Bands are 24.24% wider than normal. The current width of the Bollinger Bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 13 April, 2015

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 13 April, 2015
VIT Weekly Analysis

Review of US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
as of 10/04/15

Volatility Analysis
On 10/04/15, US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed up 0.5620 at 120.1990

Period Statistical Change
10-period 13.7549 -0.14
21-period 19.7329 -0.67
39-period 22.2942 -0.29
90-period 20.6807 -0.13

Bollinger Bands are 50.45% narrower than normal. US Dollar / Japanese Yen is currently experiencing very low volatility as compared to its normal range. The probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move is likely in the near future.

Momentum Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is 35.7465. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The current value of the RSI is 63.95.This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The current value of the CCI is 60. This is not a topping or bottoming area.The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

MACD Momentum Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence INDICATOR (MACD) crosses its 9 period signal line which triggers a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Trend Analysis

Aroon
There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 4 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator
There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 83 period(s) ago.

MACD Trend Signal
There were no MACD Trend signals generated today. The last MACD Trend signal was a Buy 71 period(s) ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 5 period(s) ago.

Summary
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is: Very Bullish
The close is currently above its 200 period moving average.
The close is currently above its 90 period moving average.
The close is currently above its 30 period moving average.


Analysis of activity through 10/04/15
close: 120.1990
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, we would look to partial profits on any retracement to 118.2310. Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 116.8730. Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 117.3137 area.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 14 April, 2015

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 2 white candles versus 8 black candles with a net of 6 black candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 20 white candles versus 30 black candles with a net of 10 black candles.
Three black candles has formed during the last three bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 1 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has decreased 0.28%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.068 to a low of 1.052.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
The Stochastic Oscillator is currently below 20. This is an indication of the security being in an "oversold" condition. No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 202 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Buy 18 period(s) ago.

The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BEARISH signal.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 4 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Sell 2 period(s) ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
BELOW its 50 daily moving average
BELOW its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Very Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed above the lower Bollinger Band by 2.9%. Bollinger Bands are 2.21% wider than normal. The current width of the Bollinger Bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.
Euro Dollar / US Dollar broke below the downside support level of 1.06, 1 day ago. This is a bearish sign. This previous support level of 1.06 may now provide upside resistance.Prices having only declined 0.28% since the breakout, the validity of the breakout is questionable.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 20 April, 2015

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 31 white candles versus 19 black candles with a net of 12 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 12 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 0.97%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 127 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 4 period(s) ago.

The RSI has just reached its lowest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BEARISH signal.The RSI has set a new 14-period low while the price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen has not. This is a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 82 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 6 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed above the lower Bollinger Band by 38.8%. Bollinger Bands are 48.64% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 2 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Tuesday, 21 April, 2015

VIT Daily Analysis

Review of Euro Dollar / US Dollar (EURUSD)
as of 20/04/15

Volatility Analysis
On 20/04/15, Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed down -0.0054 at 1.0751

Period Statistical Change
10-period 12.4207 0.15
21-period 13.1086 -0.75
39-period 16.7843 0.03
90-period 14.9434 0.02

Bollinger Bands are 29.07% narrower than normal.

Momentum Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is 78.3439. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The current value of the RSI is 46.82.This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The current value of the CCI is -1. This is not a topping or bottoming area.The last signal was a buy 3 period(s) ago.

MACD Momentum Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence INDICATOR (MACD) crosses its 9 period signal line which triggers a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Trend Analysis

Aroon
There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 7 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator
There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 9 period(s) ago.

MACD Trend Signal
There were no MACD Trend signals generated today. The last MACD Trend signal was a Sell 6 period(s) Ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 7 period(s) ago.

Summary
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is: Very Bearish
The close is currently below its 200 period moving average.
The close is currently below its 90 period moving average.
The close is currently below its 30 period moving average.


Analysis of activity through 03/02/15
close: 1.1455

The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 1.1648. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 1.1677. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 1.1497 area.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 27 April, 2015

A white body has formed as prices closed higher than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 7 white candles versus 3 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 32 white candles versus 18 black candles with a net of 14 white candles.
A long upper shadow has formed. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).A spinning top has formed which is a candle with a small real body. Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action as defined by the difference between the open and the close. During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 13 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 1.02%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 128 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 5 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 83 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 7 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed above the lower Bollinger Band by 42.1%. Bollinger Bands are 53.41% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 3 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 28 April, 2015

VIT Daily Analysis

Review of Euro Dollar / US Dollar (EURUSD)
as of 27/04/15

Volatility Analysis
On 27/04/15, Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed up 0.0005 at 1.0876

Period Statistical Change
10-period 8.0204 -0.56
21-period 12.1534 -0.00
39-period 16.5975 -0.00
90-period 14.8292 0.00

Bollinger Bands are 36.81% narrower than normal.

Momentum Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.8385. This is an overbought reading. Monitor for reversal signal when the Oscillator crosses below 80. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The current value of the RSI is 54.29.This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 28 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The current value of the CCI is 134.This is an overbought reading. Monitor for reversal signal when the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

MACD Momentum Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence INDICATOR (MACD) crosses its 9 period signal line which triggers a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Trend Analysis

Aroon
There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 12 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator
There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 14 period(s) ago.

MACD Trend Signal
There were no MACD Trend signals generated today. The last MACD Trend signal was a Sell 11 period(s) Ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 2 period(s) ago.

Summary
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is: Bearish
The close is currently below its 200 period moving average.
The close is currently below its 90 period moving average.
The close is currently above its 30 period moving average.


Analysis of activity through 27/04/15
close: 1.0876

Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 1.0796 area. If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 1.0926. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 1.0926.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 04 May, 2015

A white body has formed as prices closed higher than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 7 white candles versus 3 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 33 white candles versus 17 black candles with a net of 16 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 14 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 1.42%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 129 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 6 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 84 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 8 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 47.0%. Bollinger Bands are 53.71% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 4 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 05 May, 2015

*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: SELL Euro Dollar / US Dollar
Sell Target: 1.1106
Sell Stop: 1.1267
Enter New SELL on OPEN and exit SELL positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(NOTE: Adjust Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting. This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 7 white candles versus 3 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 25 white candles versus 25 black candles.
MACD is BULLISH as the MACD is above the signal line.
The MACD crossed above the signal line 12 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has increased 3.68%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.129 to a low of 1.063.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
The Stochastic Oscillator is currently above 80. This is an indication of the security being in an "overbought" condition. No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 217 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Buy 33 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of Euro Dollar / US Dollar are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator is in an overbought condition.

The Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) currently is not indicating a specific price direction. Because this is a trend following system, it should not use to initiate any trades right now. The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 19 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 7 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
ABOVE its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Mildly Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 9.1%. Bollinger Bands are 52.30% wider than normal.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 11 May, 2015

VIT Weekly Analysis

Review of US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USDJPY)
as of 08/05/15

Volatility Analysis
On 08/05/15, US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed up 0.3600 at 119.7860

Period Statistical Change
10-period 13.2821 -0.21
21-period 14.0060 -2.84
39-period 22.5550 -0.19
90-period 19.1346 -0.13

Bollinger Bands are 54.31% narrower than normal. US Dollar / Japanese Yen is currently experiencing very low volatility as compared to its normal range. The probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move is likely in the near future.

Momentum Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.5505. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The current value of the RSI is 60.87.This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The current value of the CCI is 23. This is not a topping or bottoming area.The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

MACD Momentum Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence INDICATOR (MACD) crosses its 9 period signal line which triggers a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Trend Analysis

Aroon
There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 8 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator
There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 87 period(s) ago.

MACD Trend Signal
There were no MACD Trend signals generated today. The last MACD Trend signal was a Buy 75 period(s) ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last signal was a Buy 9 period(s) ago.

Summary
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is: Very Bullish
The close is currently above its 200 period moving average.
The close is currently above its 90 period moving average.
The close is currently above its 30 period moving average.


Analysis of activity through 14/02/14
close: 101.7720
The current trend is up and all orders on the long side may be considered. If already holding long positions, we would look to partial profits on any retracement to 100.7540. Traders with remaining long positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 100.7540.
Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 102.4889 area.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 12 May, 2015

*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: BUY Euro Dollar / US Dollar
Buy Target: 1.1184
Buy Stop: 1.1081
Enter New BUY on OPEN and exit BUY positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(NOTE: Adjust Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting. This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 24 white candles versus 26 black candles with a net of 2 black candles.
Three black candles has formed during the last three bars. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.MACD is BULLISH as the MACD is above the signal line.
The MACD crossed above the signal line 17 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has increased 3.61%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.139 to a low of 1.063.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
A Stochastic SELL signal was generated today.
The Stochastic indicator is currently generating a SELL signal against the direction of the major trend.A Stochastic Bearish divergence signal was generated today.The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 2 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of Euro Dollar / US Dollar are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) currently is not indicating a specific price direction. Because this is a trend following system, it should not use to initiate any trades right now. The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 24 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 12 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
ABOVE its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Mildly Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 30.8%. Bollinger Bands are 71.49% wider than normal.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 18 May, 2015

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 5 white candles versus 5 black candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 32 white candles versus 18 black candles with a net of 14 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 16 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 1.32%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 131 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 8 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 86 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 10 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 49.0%. Bollinger Bands are 54.72% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 6 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[fxstrategist]

Very interesting and detalied analysis. Keep the good work.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 19 May, 2015

*** Intra-Daily Trading Strategy: SELL Euro Dollar / US Dollar
Sell Target: 1.1269
Sell Stop: 1.1502
Enter New SELL on OPEN and exit SELL positions at Target price or at Stop price.
(NOTE: Adjust Stop Loss Price according to your trading risk.)
Do not reverse after exiting. This is a recommendation for INTRA-DAY TRADING only!!!!!

A black body has formed as prices closed lower than open.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 27 white candles versus 23 black candles with a net of 4 white candles.
MACD is BULLISH as the MACD is above the signal line.
The MACD crossed above the signal line 22 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, Euro Dollar / US Dollar's price has increased 5.32%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 1.147 to a low of 1.063.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
The Stochastic Oscillator is currently above 80. This is an indication of the security being in an "overbought" condition. No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 5 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 7 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The RSI and price of Euro Dollar / US Dollar are not diverging.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 29 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 17 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
BELOW its 200 daily moving average
ABOVE its 50 daily moving average
ABOVE its 20 daily moving average
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is Mildly Bearish
Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed below the upper Bollinger Band by 26.8%. Bollinger Bands are 61.62% wider than normal.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 25 May, 2015

A big bullish white candle has formed. Prices closed considerably higher than open. If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off a support area, a moving average, trend line, or retracement level, the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Likewise, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 5 white candles versus 5 black candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 32 white candles versus 18 black candles with a net of 14 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 17 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 3.22%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 122.015 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 132 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is not currently in a topping (above 70) or bottoming (below 30) range. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 9 period(s) ago.

Currently the RSI does not show any Failure Swings. The price of US Dollar / Japanese Yen has set a new 14-period high while the RSI has not. This is a BEARISH DIVERGENCE.
Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 87 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 11 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed above the upper Bollinger Band by 1.4%. Although prices have broken the upper Bollinger Band and an upside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario is for the current trading range that US Dollar / Japanese Yen is in to continue. Bollinger Bands are 50.28% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the Bollinger Bands suggests low volatility as compared to US Dollar / Japanese Yen's normal range. Therefore, the probability of volatility increasing with a sharp price move has increased for the near-term. The Bollinger Bands have been in this narrow range for 7 period(s). The probability of a significant price move increases the longer the Bollinger Bands remain in this narrow range.

 

[Martin Kay]

EUR/USD DAILY as of Tuesday, 26 May, 2015

VIT Daily Analysis

Review of Euro Dollar / US Dollar (EURUSD)
as of 25/05/15

Volatility Analysis
On 25/05/15, Euro Dollar / US Dollar closed down -0.0039 at 1.0969

Period Statistical Change
10-period 15.8405 -0.17
21-period 15.4455 -0.02
39-period 14.0091 -0.24
90-period 16.2513 0.00

Bollinger Bands are 23.84% narrower than normal.

Momentum Indicators

Stochastic Oscillator
The Stochastic Oscillator is 5.3941. This is an oversold reading. Monitor for reversal signal when the Oscillator crosses above 20. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The current value of the RSI is 43.29.This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The current value of the CCI is -159.This is an oversold reading. Monitor for reversal signal when the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD Momentum Indicator
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence INDICATOR (MACD) crosses its 9 period signal line which triggers a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Trend Analysis

Aroon
There were no Aroon signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 32 period(s) ago.

Directional Indicator
There were no Directional Indicator signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 34 period(s) ago.

MACD Trend Signal
There were no MACD Trend signals generated today. The last MACD Trend signal was a Sell 31 period(s) Ago.

Stop and Reverse (SAR)
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 4 period(s) ago.

Summary
The current market condition for Euro Dollar / US Dollar is: Very Bearish
The close is currently below its 200 period moving average.
The close is currently below its 90 period moving average.
The close is currently below its 30 period moving average.


Analysis of activity through 25/05/15
close: 1.0969

The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 1.1466. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 1.1466. Be prepared for a potential short term price pull back to the 1.1142 area.

 

[Martin Kay]

USD/JPY WEEKLY as of Monday, 01 June, 2015

A big bullish white candle has formed. Prices closed considerably higher than open. If the candle appears when prices are "low," it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off a support area, a moving average, trend line, or retracement level, the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Likewise, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
The previous 10 candlestick bars, there are 6 white candles versus 4 black candles with a net of 2 white candles.
The previous 50 candlestick bars, there are 33 white candles versus 17 black candles with a net of 16 white candles.
MACD is BEARISH as the MACD is below the signal line.
The MACD crossed below the signal line 18 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed the MACD moving average, US Dollar / Japanese Yen's price has increased 5.42%, and has been fluctuating from a high of 124.450 to a low of 116.873.
The MACD is currently not in an Overbought/Oversold range.
There have been no divergence signals during the last 5 periods.
No Stochastic Buy or Sell signals generated today. The last signal was a Sell 133 Period(s) Ago.
The RSI is above 70. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a Sell 10 period(s) ago.
The RSI has just reached its highest value in the last 14 period(s). This is BULLISH signal.

Currently, the Momentum Oscillator does not show an overbought or oversold condition.

The last Directional Movement Indicators (DMI) signal was a SELL 88 period(s) ago.
There were no SAR signals generated today. The last SAR signal was a Buy 12 period(s) Ago.
The close is currently
ABOVE its 200 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 50 weekly moving average
ABOVE its 20 weekly moving average
The current market condition for US Dollar / Japanese Yen is Very Bullish
US Dollar / Japanese Yen closed above the upper Bollinger Band by 26.2%. Although prices have broken the upper Bollinger Band and an upside breakout is possible, the most likely scenario is for the current trading range that US Dollar / Japanese Yen is in to continue. Bollinger Bands are 31.69% narrower than normal. The current width of the Bollinger Bands (alone) does not suggest anything conclusive about the future volatility or movement of prices.