Market Structure & Weekly Movers – Daily Analysis

[Elina Ward]

25 March 2026​

XAU/USD Drops Over 18% as Hawkish Fed Signals and Inflation Pressures Drive Sharp Repricing​

XAU/USD represents the price of Gold (XAUUSD) against the U.S. dollar, a traditional safe-haven asset that is highly sensitive to interest rates, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment. As a non-yielding asset, gold is particularly impacted by changes in monetary policy expectations and real yields.
Between March 16 and March 24, XAU/USD experienced a sharp and extended decline, driven by a shift in macroeconomic expectations following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and rising inflation pressures linked to energy markets.
Gold initially traded near 5011.75, before entering a sustained downward move, eventually reaching a low of 4099.15 on March 23. The metal later recovered partially, closing near 4474.10 on March 24.
This marked a decline of approximately 91,260 ticks, equivalent to an −18.21% move from the opening level to the period low. On a net basis, gold declined 53,765 ticks (−10.73%) from open to close, reflecting a partial recovery after the sharp sell-off.

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📊 Price Action Summary​

Metric	Value
Weekly Open	5011.75
Period Low	4099.15
Weekly Close	4474.10
Total Move (Open → Low)	−91,260 ticks
Percentage Move (Open → Low)	−18.21%
Net Move (Open → Close)	−53,765 ticks
Percentage Move (Open → Close)	−10.73%
Structure	Two-phase move (sell-off + recovery)
Session	Multi-session (macro-driven repricing)

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Hawkish Fed Signals Trigger the Initial Move​

The decline was driven primarily by macroeconomic developments, particularly the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18.
While the Fed held interest rates steady, policymakers emphasized elevated inflation risks and uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising energy prices contributed to inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.
As a result, gold came under pressure, as higher interest rate expectations reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.

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Initial Stability Followed by Extended Downside​

The price action developed in two distinct phases.
The first phase showed relative stability near the 5000 level, as safe-haven demand provided temporary support amid geopolitical uncertainty.
However, following the Fed decision and the shift in macro expectations, the second phase emerged, with gold entering a sustained decline toward 4099.15, as markets repriced interest rate expectations and risk conditions.

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Market Structure Accelerated the Move​

As XAU/USD moved lower, price broke through key support levels, triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders and accelerating downside momentum.
This amplified the decline, extending the move beyond the initial reaction and contributing to the full −91,260 tick range observed.
The sharp move into March 23 reflected a liquidity-driven extension rather than a disorderly collapse.

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A Repricing Event Driven by Macro and Inflation Dynamics​

The overall move reflected a clear sequence:

• Geopolitical tensions initially supported gold demand
• Rising energy prices increased inflation expectations
• Hawkish Fed signals reinforced a higher-for-longer rate outlook
• Gold sold off as macro conditions outweighed safe-haven demand
• Partial recovery followed as markets stabilized

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Conclusion​

Between March 16 and March 24, XAU/USD declined from approximately 5011.75 to 4099.15, marking an −18.21% move, before recovering to close near 4474.10. On a net basis, this represented a −10.73% decline from the opening level, highlighting that while gold experienced a sharp macro-driven sell-off, part of the move was later retraced as market conditions stabilized.
The move was driven primarily by macroeconomic repricing following the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, with inflation pressures—partly linked to energy markets—reinforcing expectations of sustained higher interest rates. Market structure then amplified the decline as key levels were breached, while the subsequent recovery reflected a partial normalization in sentiment.

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The chart below illustrates XAU/USD price action on a 1-hour timeframe for March 16–24, 2026.

 

[Elina Ward]

26 March 2026​

Brent Crude Oil Drops Over 15% as De-Escalation Signals Trigger Sharp Risk Repricing​

Brent crude represents the global benchmark for oil prices and is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, supply disruption risks, and shifts in market sentiment. As a key energy commodity, oil reacts rapidly to changes in expectations around conflict, particularly when critical supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are involved.

Between March 23 and March 26, 2026, Brent crude experienced a sharp and volatile decline, driven by a sudden shift in geopolitical expectations following headlines suggesting potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

Brent initially traded near 112.07, before rallying to a weekly high of 114.41. However, the market quickly reversed, entering an aggressive sell-off that pushed price down to a weekly low of 96.53 on March 23. The market later stabilized and recovered, with price rebounding toward 104.85, trading near 104.32 as of March 26 (09:00 GMT).

This marked a decline of approximately 1,788 ticks, equivalent to a −15.63% move from the high to the low. On a net basis, Brent declined 775 ticks (−6.91%) from the March 23 open to current levels on March 26, reflecting a partial recovery following the sharp liquidation phase.

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📊 Price Action Summary​

Metric	Value
Period Open (23 Mar)	112.07
Weekly High	114.41
Weekly Low	96.53
Current Price (26 Mar 09:00)	104.32
Total Move (High → Low)	−1,788 ticks
Percentage Move (High → Low)	−15.63%
Net Move (Open → Current)	−775 ticks
Percentage (Open → Current)	−6.91%
Rebound (Low → Current High)	+832 ticks
Percentage (Low → High)	+8.62%
Structure	Two-phase move (liquidation + recovery)
Session	Multi-session (headline-driven repricing)

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De-Escalation Headlines Trigger the Initial Move​

The decline was driven primarily by geopolitical developments, particularly headlines on March 23 indicating that U.S.–Iran talks were described as “very good and productive,” although Iran later denied that discussions had taken place.

This triggered an immediate shift in market expectations, as traders interpreted the headlines as a potential easing of conflict and a reduced probability of supply disruption.

As a result, Brent came under intense pressure, with geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwound and price collapsing from the 114.41 high toward the 96.53 low, marking a panic-driven liquidation phase.

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Initial Stability Followed by Structured Recovery​

The price action developed in two distinct phases.

The first phase was characterized by a sharp and aggressive sell-off toward 96.53, driven by panic selling and forced liquidations.

Following this, the second phase emerged, where price began to stabilize. On March 24, Brent formed a base with a daily low of 98.18, signaling that selling pressure had started to ease after the initial shock.

This stabilization phase reflected exhaustion in downside momentum and the early formation of support.

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Market Structure and Range Formation​

On March 25, Brent continued to trade within a defined range, reaching a daily high of 102.44 and a daily low of 97.12.
This phase reflected:

• Lack of strong directional conviction
• Ongoing uncertainty around geopolitical developments
• Market reassessing fair value after the extreme move

As price moved through intraday levels, short-term volatility remained elevated, reinforcing a choppy consolidation structure.

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Recovery as Risk Premium Gradually Rebuilds​

By March 26, Brent began to recover more decisively.
Price pushed higher toward a current high of 104.85, with the session opening at 104.32 (09:00 GMT).
The recovery was driven by:

• Re-emerging uncertainty around diplomatic progress
• Market recognition that de-escalation was not confirmed
• Gradual rebuilding of geopolitical risk premium

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A Repricing Event Driven by Geopolitics and Positioning​

The overall move reflected a clear sequence:

• Elevated geopolitical risk initially supported higher oil prices
• De-escalation headlines triggered a rapid unwind of risk premium
• Panic selling and liquidation accelerated the downside move
• Market stabilized after selling pressure was exhausted
• Partial recovery followed as uncertainty persisted

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Market Note (Weekend Risk Focus)​

As the weekend approaches, geopolitical risk remains elevated and skewed toward further escalation. The U.S. is preparing to deploy airborne troops into the region, signaling a potential shift toward direct military involvement, while Iran continues to deny that any peace talks with Washington are taking place despite ongoing diplomatic claims . At the same time, Gulf states have hardened their stance, stating they are ready to act in self-defense following repeated attacks on energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of broader regional participation . Meanwhile, Iran and Israel are intensifying strikes on each other’s territory, reinforcing the likelihood of continued volatility .

Overall, markets are heading into the weekend with heightened uncertainty, rising military involvement, and no confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaving oil and broader risk assets vulnerable to gap risk and headline-driven price action at the next open.

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Conclusion​

Between March 23 and March 26, Brent crude declined from a high of 114.41 to a low of 96.53, marking a −15.63% move, before recovering to trade near 104.32 as of March 26. On a net basis, this represents a −6.91% decline from the March 23 opening level, highlighting that while the market experienced a sharp geopolitical-driven sell-off, part of the move was later retraced.

From the weekly low of 96.53 to the current high of 104.85, Brent rebounded approximately +832 ticks, equivalent to a +8.62% recovery, reflecting a partial rebuilding of geopolitical risk premium as uncertainty around diplomatic outcomes persisted.

The move was driven primarily by rapid shifts in geopolitical expectations, with de-escalation signals triggering a sharp unwinding of risk premium. Market structure then amplified the decline as key levels were breached, while the subsequent recovery reflected a partial stabilization in sentiment and positioning.

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The chart Below illustrates Brent crude oil price action on a 1-hour timeframe for March 23–26, 2026.

 

[Elina Ward]

27th March 2026​

📊 High-Impact Economic Calendar – 30 March – 3 April 2026​

All times in GMT
All events are 🔴 HIGH IMPACT for traders & investors

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🔎 Week Overview​

This week’s calendar is heavily driven by inflation data, PMI releases, labor market indicators, and central bank signals, culminating in the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. With multiple major economies reporting key data, markets are likely to experience heightened volatility across currencies, gold, indices, and broader global assets, particularly during U.S. session releases.

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📅 Monday, 30 March 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
12:00	🇩🇪 Germany	Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Mar)	2.6%	1.9%	🔴 High
12:00	🇩🇪 Germany	Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Mar)	1.0%	0.2%	🔴 High
14:30	🇺🇸 United States	Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)	0.7	0.2	🔴 High
23:30	🇯🇵 Japan	Unemployment Rate (Feb)	2.7%	2.7%	🔴 High
23:50	🇯🇵 Japan	Industrial Production MoM Prel (Feb)	-2.0%	4.3%	🔴 High
23:50	🇯🇵 Japan	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	-0.9%	4.1%	🔴 High

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📅 Tuesday, 31 March 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	🇦🇺 Australia	RBA Meeting Minutes	—	—	🔴 High
01:30	🇨🇳 China	NBS Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	49.8	49.0	🔴 High
06:00	🇩🇪 Germany	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	0.5%	-0.9%	🔴 High
06:45	🇫🇷 France	Inflation Rate MoM Prel (Mar)	1.0%	0.6%	🔴 High
06:45	🇫🇷 France	PPI MoM (Feb)	0.0%	0.5%	🔴 High
06:45	🇫🇷 France	Inflation Rate YoY Prel (Mar)	1.7%	0.9%	🔴 High
06:45	🇫🇷 France	PPI YoY (Feb)	-2.1%	-2.3%	🔴 High
07:55	🇩🇪 Germany	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	6.3%	6.3%	🔴 High
09:00	🇪🇺 Eurozone	Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Mar)	2.2%	1.9%	🔴 High
09:00	🇪🇺 Eurozone	Inflation Rate MoM Flash (Mar)	0.9%	0.6%	🔴 High
09:00	🇪🇺 Eurozone	CPI Flash (Mar)	101.6	100.71	🔴 High
09:00	🇪🇺 Eurozone	Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (Mar)	2.3%	2.4%	🔴 High
12:30	🇨🇦 Canada	GDP MoM (Jan)	0.0%	0.2%	🔴 High
13:45	🇺🇸 United States	Chicago PMI (Mar)	54.0	57.7	🔴 High
14:00	🇺🇸 United States	CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)	86.0	91.2	🔴 High
21:45	🇳🇿 New Zealand	Building Permits MoM (Feb)	0.5%	1.9%	🔴 High
23:50	🇯🇵 Japan	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q1)	35	34	🔴 High
23:50	🇯🇵 Japan	Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q1)	14	15	🔴 High

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📅 Wednesday, 1 April 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	🇦🇺 Australia	Building Permits MoM Prel (Feb)	4.5%	-7.2%	🔴 High
01:45	🇨🇳 China	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	51.7	52.1	🔴 High
06:30	🇨🇭 Switzerland	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	0.1%	1.1%	🔴 High
09:00	🇪🇺 Eurozone	Unemployment Rate (Feb)	6.1%	6.1%	🔴 High
12:15	🇺🇸 United States	ADP Employment Change (Mar)	80K	63K	🔴 High
12:30	🇺🇸 United States	Retail Sales MoM (Feb)	-0.1%	-0.2%	🔴 High
14:00	🇺🇸 United States	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)	52.0	52.4	🔴 High

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📅 Thursday, 2 April 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
00:30	🇦🇺 Australia	Balance of Trade (Feb)	A$1.5B	A$2.63B	🔴 High
06:30	🇨🇭 Switzerland	Inflation Rate YoY (Mar)	0.1%	0.1%	🔴 High
12:30	🇺🇸 United States	Balance of Trade (Feb)	-$45B	-$54.5B	🔴 High
12:30	🇺🇸 United States	Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28)	213K	210K	🔴 High
12:30	🇨🇦 Canada	Balance of Trade (Feb)	-C$4.8B	C$3.65B	🔴 High

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📅 Friday, 3 April 2026​

Time	Country	Event	Forecast	Previous	Impact
06:45	🇫🇷 France	Industrial Production MoM (Feb)	0.3%	0.5%	🔴 High
12:30	🇺🇸 United States	Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar)	50K	-92K	🔴 High
12:30	🇺🇸 United States	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	4.5%	4.4%	🔴 High
14:00	🇺🇸 United States	ISM Services PMI (Mar)	54.0	56.1	🔴 High

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🔔 Week Conclusion​

This week brings a broad mix of inflation, growth, and labor market data across major economies, creating multiple volatility windows rather than a single focal point. With key releases spread across Asia, Europe, and the U.S., traders should be mindful of session-to-session momentum shifts and cross-market reactions.

Periods where high-impact events cluster — particularly during the European and U.S. sessions — may lead to accelerated price action across currencies, gold, indices, and global markets. As always, the strongest moves are likely to occur when actual data diverges from expectations, making timing, positioning, and risk management essential.

U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Release - 6th March 2026​

The following provides an overview of the Non-Farm Employment Change release, accompanied by a chart showing its impact on the XAU/USD pair. The price action reflects the market’s reaction on 6 March 2026, based on a 5-minute candlestick timeframe.
The next Non-Farm Payrolls release is scheduled for 3 April 2026 at 13:30 GMT.

The United States labor market weakened sharply in February, with the economy losing 92,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, defying expectations for modest job growth and stability. The decline followed a stronger-than-expected January, which saw 126,000 jobs added, but revisions showed broader softness, including a downward adjustment to December figures that turned prior gains into losses. Job cuts were widespread, notably in healthcare, which swung from strong gains to significant losses due in part to strike activity, alongside declines in information, transportation, and federal government employment. Overall job growth in 2025 has been subdued, marking the weakest performance since the pandemic, with hiring largely concentrated in the first half of the year and net losses recorded in the latter months. While the report does not yet reflect the economic impact of escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, it highlights growing pressure on the labour market and is expected to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.

Potential Profit Study:​

An entry on XAU/USD at 5074.12 with 1 standard lot would require approximately $1014.82 in margin at 1:500 leverage, while at 1:2000 leverage, the margin requirement would decrease to around $253.71.

The move from 5074.12 to the daily low of 1.17904 totalled 10,038 ticks, translating to a potential profit of approximately $10,038 on a standard lot position.