Market Structure & Weekly Movers – Daily Analysis

[Elina Ward]

25 March 2026​

XAU/USD Drops Over 18% as Hawkish Fed Signals and Inflation Pressures Drive Sharp Repricing​

XAU/USD represents the price of Gold (XAUUSD) against the U.S. dollar, a traditional safe-haven asset that is highly sensitive to interest rates, inflation expectations, and broader risk sentiment. As a non-yielding asset, gold is particularly impacted by changes in monetary policy expectations and real yields.
Between March 16 and March 24, XAU/USD experienced a sharp and extended decline, driven by a shift in macroeconomic expectations following the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and rising inflation pressures linked to energy markets.
Gold initially traded near 5011.75, before entering a sustained downward move, eventually reaching a low of 4099.15 on March 23. The metal later recovered partially, closing near 4474.10 on March 24.
This marked a decline of approximately 91,260 ticks, equivalent to an −18.21% move from the opening level to the period low. On a net basis, gold declined 53,765 ticks (−10.73%) from open to close, reflecting a partial recovery after the sharp sell-off.

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📊 Price Action Summary​

Metric	Value
Weekly Open	5011.75
Period Low	4099.15
Weekly Close	4474.10
Total Move (Open → Low)	−91,260 ticks
Percentage Move (Open → Low)	−18.21%
Net Move (Open → Close)	−53,765 ticks
Percentage Move (Open → Close)	−10.73%
Structure	Two-phase move (sell-off + recovery)
Session	Multi-session (macro-driven repricing)

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Hawkish Fed Signals Trigger the Initial Move​

The decline was driven primarily by macroeconomic developments, particularly the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on March 18.
While the Fed held interest rates steady, policymakers emphasized elevated inflation risks and uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Rising energy prices contributed to inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer.
As a result, gold came under pressure, as higher interest rate expectations reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets.

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Initial Stability Followed by Extended Downside​

The price action developed in two distinct phases.
The first phase showed relative stability near the 5000 level, as safe-haven demand provided temporary support amid geopolitical uncertainty.
However, following the Fed decision and the shift in macro expectations, the second phase emerged, with gold entering a sustained decline toward 4099.15, as markets repriced interest rate expectations and risk conditions.

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Market Structure Accelerated the Move​

As XAU/USD moved lower, price broke through key support levels, triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders and accelerating downside momentum.
This amplified the decline, extending the move beyond the initial reaction and contributing to the full −91,260 tick range observed.
The sharp move into March 23 reflected a liquidity-driven extension rather than a disorderly collapse.

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A Repricing Event Driven by Macro and Inflation Dynamics​

The overall move reflected a clear sequence:

• Geopolitical tensions initially supported gold demand
• Rising energy prices increased inflation expectations
• Hawkish Fed signals reinforced a higher-for-longer rate outlook
• Gold sold off as macro conditions outweighed safe-haven demand
• Partial recovery followed as markets stabilized

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Conclusion​

Between March 16 and March 24, XAU/USD declined from approximately 5011.75 to 4099.15, marking an −18.21% move, before recovering to close near 4474.10. On a net basis, this represented a −10.73% decline from the opening level, highlighting that while gold experienced a sharp macro-driven sell-off, part of the move was later retraced as market conditions stabilized.
The move was driven primarily by macroeconomic repricing following the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance, with inflation pressures—partly linked to energy markets—reinforcing expectations of sustained higher interest rates. Market structure then amplified the decline as key levels were breached, while the subsequent recovery reflected a partial normalization in sentiment.

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The chart below illustrates XAU/USD price action on a 1-hour timeframe for March 16–24, 2026.

 

[Elina Ward]

26 March 2026​

Brent Crude Oil Drops Over 15% as De-Escalation Signals Trigger Sharp Risk Repricing​

Brent crude represents the global benchmark for oil prices and is highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, supply disruption risks, and shifts in market sentiment. As a key energy commodity, oil reacts rapidly to changes in expectations around conflict, particularly when critical supply routes such as the Strait of Hormuz are involved.

Between March 23 and March 26, 2026, Brent crude experienced a sharp and volatile decline, driven by a sudden shift in geopolitical expectations following headlines suggesting potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

Brent initially traded near 112.07, before rallying to a weekly high of 114.41. However, the market quickly reversed, entering an aggressive sell-off that pushed price down to a weekly low of 96.53 on March 23. The market later stabilized and recovered, with price rebounding toward 104.85, trading near 104.32 as of March 26 (09:00 GMT).

This marked a decline of approximately 1,788 ticks, equivalent to a −15.63% move from the high to the low. On a net basis, Brent declined 775 ticks (−6.91%) from the March 23 open to current levels on March 26, reflecting a partial recovery following the sharp liquidation phase.

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📊 Price Action Summary​

Metric	Value
Period Open (23 Mar)	112.07
Weekly High	114.41
Weekly Low	96.53
Current Price (26 Mar 09:00)	104.32
Total Move (High → Low)	−1,788 ticks
Percentage Move (High → Low)	−15.63%
Net Move (Open → Current)	−775 ticks
Percentage (Open → Current)	−6.91%
Rebound (Low → Current High)	+832 ticks
Percentage (Low → High)	+8.62%
Structure	Two-phase move (liquidation + recovery)
Session	Multi-session (headline-driven repricing)

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De-Escalation Headlines Trigger the Initial Move​

The decline was driven primarily by geopolitical developments, particularly headlines on March 23 indicating that U.S.–Iran talks were described as “very good and productive,” although Iran later denied that discussions had taken place.

This triggered an immediate shift in market expectations, as traders interpreted the headlines as a potential easing of conflict and a reduced probability of supply disruption.

As a result, Brent came under intense pressure, with geopolitical risk premium rapidly unwound and price collapsing from the 114.41 high toward the 96.53 low, marking a panic-driven liquidation phase.

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Initial Stability Followed by Structured Recovery​

The price action developed in two distinct phases.

The first phase was characterized by a sharp and aggressive sell-off toward 96.53, driven by panic selling and forced liquidations.

Following this, the second phase emerged, where price began to stabilize. On March 24, Brent formed a base with a daily low of 98.18, signaling that selling pressure had started to ease after the initial shock.

This stabilization phase reflected exhaustion in downside momentum and the early formation of support.

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Market Structure and Range Formation​

On March 25, Brent continued to trade within a defined range, reaching a daily high of 102.44 and a daily low of 97.12.
This phase reflected:

• Lack of strong directional conviction
• Ongoing uncertainty around geopolitical developments
• Market reassessing fair value after the extreme move

As price moved through intraday levels, short-term volatility remained elevated, reinforcing a choppy consolidation structure.

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Recovery as Risk Premium Gradually Rebuilds​

By March 26, Brent began to recover more decisively.
Price pushed higher toward a current high of 104.85, with the session opening at 104.32 (09:00 GMT).
The recovery was driven by:

• Re-emerging uncertainty around diplomatic progress
• Market recognition that de-escalation was not confirmed
• Gradual rebuilding of geopolitical risk premium

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A Repricing Event Driven by Geopolitics and Positioning​

The overall move reflected a clear sequence:

• Elevated geopolitical risk initially supported higher oil prices
• De-escalation headlines triggered a rapid unwind of risk premium
• Panic selling and liquidation accelerated the downside move
• Market stabilized after selling pressure was exhausted
• Partial recovery followed as uncertainty persisted

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Market Note (Weekend Risk Focus)​

As the weekend approaches, geopolitical risk remains elevated and skewed toward further escalation. The U.S. is preparing to deploy airborne troops into the region, signaling a potential shift toward direct military involvement, while Iran continues to deny that any peace talks with Washington are taking place despite ongoing diplomatic claims . At the same time, Gulf states have hardened their stance, stating they are ready to act in self-defense following repeated attacks on energy infrastructure, increasing the risk of broader regional participation . Meanwhile, Iran and Israel are intensifying strikes on each other’s territory, reinforcing the likelihood of continued volatility .

Overall, markets are heading into the weekend with heightened uncertainty, rising military involvement, and no confirmed diplomatic breakthrough, leaving oil and broader risk assets vulnerable to gap risk and headline-driven price action at the next open.

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Conclusion​

Between March 23 and March 26, Brent crude declined from a high of 114.41 to a low of 96.53, marking a −15.63% move, before recovering to trade near 104.32 as of March 26. On a net basis, this represents a −6.91% decline from the March 23 opening level, highlighting that while the market experienced a sharp geopolitical-driven sell-off, part of the move was later retraced.

From the weekly low of 96.53 to the current high of 104.85, Brent rebounded approximately +832 ticks, equivalent to a +8.62% recovery, reflecting a partial rebuilding of geopolitical risk premium as uncertainty around diplomatic outcomes persisted.

The move was driven primarily by rapid shifts in geopolitical expectations, with de-escalation signals triggering a sharp unwinding of risk premium. Market structure then amplified the decline as key levels were breached, while the subsequent recovery reflected a partial stabilization in sentiment and positioning.

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The chart Below illustrates Brent crude oil price action on a 1-hour timeframe for March 23–26, 2026.