Market directions and longterm analysis - by stormygold

[stormygolds]

USD/CAD midterm analysis

 

[stormygolds]

Sterling / yen Long term Forecast (it could takke years ) ..

 

[stormygolds]

Reminder :

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=228655&postcount=1

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=238856&postcount=17

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showpost.php?p=233331&postcount=10

Current Eur and Sterling levels against the USD are very intersting

Regards
Stormy

 

[stormygolds]

Hi ..

The three-month Euribor futures contract due June 2006 fell 10 basis points to 2.99 percent.

The EUR is only down only some 80 pips against USD

===> SIMPLY AMAZING

Anyway

the story is : ppl are not buying EUR : they are simply Selling dollar .
now if things get clear from the US that the fed will not pause and that the US economie is'nt likely to slow as much as market participants are expecting then we may see a real USD storm and the EUR may be hurt by an ever more consistant and widening carry trade opportunity (shifting from emerging market to G8) .

Also the USD may benefit from this ongoing emerging market story : at one point investors will fly to quality and start bying USD denominated assets regardless any reasoning about Deficit and boring stuff like that .... (the problem with the deficit is that ppl are applaying the same economic analysis to the US as if it was an ordinary country which is not true of course , the US economis is much more complicated and much much more resilient to economic imbalances and chocs than many are gambling into ..... i dont know any economy who has a deficit of more than 7% of GDP and enjoying low interest rates in the same time (less than 6%) )

if the fed goes to 5.75 and beyond than why should i be holding emerging markets debt , stocks and securities ... while the US is offring me a safe and risk free 6% return !!!!

USD is likely to rise ... its only a matter of time إن شاء الله

Hope this helps
and sorry for grammar and spelling errors .

Best regards
Stormy

 

[stormygolds]

Sterling / yen Long term Forecast (it could takke years ) ..

Back with cyclical analysis .. we are probably entring in a new cycle : Sterling Weakness against Yen

 

[stormygolds]

AUD/USD Mid-Long term preview

C wave completed ... nice mov to new highs expected

 

[stormygolds]

GBP/USD updated long term outlook