Making Money Trading

[trader_dante]

TD, ok yeah i see it. Good call. Mine looks a little different. See attached. Mine does not have the bearish outside bar? Am i right? The body of today's bar does encompass the previous days bar. Or are you looking at the entire bar?

Your chart doesn't show the same setup Glen. A bearish engulfing bar is where the body engulfs the previous body as in the chart I posted last night.

So as a prefered trade you would look to the Corn for a trade? In terms of the 2 i still like the Sotbean as the market moves into the pin strongly whereas on my corn chart it kind of meanders into it. Make sense? Just a thought.

I personally prefer Corn but I take your point on the strong move into it.

Q. The fact that my potential entry on the Soybean is so close to the support. Could one not place a sell just below this support? Say for example instead of the entry at 1313 (off the pin) put it in 1 or 2 points below the support at 1310 or 1309? You'd be giving up an extra 4 points which is very minimal. Have you ever done this?

Selling into support is always dangerous (see my recent Sugar trade which lost for this very reason - a pin bar with the entry AT support)

Why don't you try monitoring it on a lower TF and see if the support is broken and the market then retests it from below? You could then get a lower risk entry.

Alternatively how about selling half the intended amount on the break and adding the second half if the daily bar closes beneath the support?

There are lots of alternatives.

 

[Glenborrell]

Selling into support is always dangerous (see my recent Sugar trade which lost for this very reason - a pin bar with the entry AT support)

Why don't you try monitoring it on a lower TF and see if the support is broken and the market then retests it from below? You could then get a lower risk entry.

Alternatively how about selling half the intended amount on the break and adding the second half if the daily bar closes beneath the support?

There are lots of alternatives.

TD,

Thanks for the comments above, you've given me something to think about. My market does not open till 15.35 so plenty of time to weigh up options.

Cheers,

Glen

 

[trader_dante]

TD,

Thanks for the comments above, you've given me something to think about. My market does not open till 15.35 so plenty of time to weigh up options.

I'm watching it now.

Soybeans is 10 1/2 points lower in electronic trading.

Corn is 2 1/2 points lower.

You can visit this link: CBOT - Soybeans Quotes Open Auction and click on "Market Commentary" down on the right hand side for pre-open, Mid-session and Market Recap reports for the Soybean complex.

Even if you are not a fundamental trader I still find it interesting to know what the market participants are focusing on and what is driving the market.

 

[Cavalry Trader]

regarding the BP pin i put up last night,i pulled the order when i had a look at the weekly charts and lo and behold,what would i have been selling into.gonna watch footie now catch you all later

I agree, however good the daily pin bar, the weekly chart paints a completely different picture. The BOE decision may also have an effect into which way the price moves.

T_D what is your take on the daily Vs weekly?

Unfortunately chart studying seems infinitely more interesting than following the National Team last night

 

[trader_dante]

T_D what is your take on the daily Vs weekly?

Generally the higher the TF, the more importance to attach to it. However, a daily pin bar that indicates a short position COULD still lead to a good R:R trade even if the weekly is bullish.

That is because the market could move lower for the first two days of the week and then sharply up for the remaining three days

 

[zphinx]

Hello T_D,

Just joined a few days ago and have been reading your fasinating thread from the first hour. Currently up to pge 29 and dont want to distract the readers..

could you please explain what you would have done about the double bottom occuring between 15-18 Aug in your chart on thread #284 ? If you have already answered this, I apologise for interupting your thoughts on here.
By definition, those bars are not a pin, correct??
If they are not, but they indicate a major reversal, what do you do about this signal??

Thanks for the wonderful insights

Leonie

 

[trader_dante]

By definition, those bars are not a pin, correct??
If they are not, but they indicate a major reversal, what do you do about this signal??

Hi Leonie,

The bars are not pin bars.

If I am in doubt I tend to stay out of the market. I only like to enter when I feel there is a very high probability that the market will move in my favour.

 

[chilltrader]

Is there a way to see the similar (i.e "open interest" on short/long) for the DOW?

Thank You

I'm watching it now.

Soybeans is 10 1/2 points lower in electronic trading.

Corn is 2 1/2 points lower.

You can visit this link: CBOT - Soybeans Quotes Open Auction and click on "Market Commentary" down on the right hand side for pre-open, Mid-session and Market Recap reports for the Soybean complex.

Even if you are not a fundamental trader I still find it interesting to know what the market participants are focusing on and what is driving the market.

 

[trader_dante]

Is there a way to see the similar (i.e "open interest" on short/long) for the DOW?

Thank You

You can view the past weeks COT reports here: Commitments of Traders

Tom

 

[jonj]

hi yawl,sounds like a good thread to me!!why not use currencys??
look forward to following what follows

 

[1Pipped]

Plan: Short position.

Objective 1: Get stop to B/E as quickly as possible while leaving reasonable amount of battleground below.

Status: Done. Risked pip soldiers in safe territory.

Objective 2: See if more shorts show up and try and take out potentially strong support 104.60 / 105.00

Status: Undetermined.

Objective 3: If support goes, move stop tightly to capture potentially excessive enemy lost ground, possibly down to 102.00 area. If support doesnt go, pull all deployed troops out at stop or better.

 

[VinceStanzione]

1pipped,

Looks good - certainly, I'd have drawn S/R where you have (which might well be the kiss of death for ya

It's interestling that you've moved to the 4H charts; most of the discussion here surrounds Daily & 1HR timeframes - good to see someone apply T_D's concepts to a different market.

I like the battle-esque terminology as well!!

Best of luck - please keep us posted on your progress.

VS

 

[trader_dante]

Plan: Short position.

Objective 1: Get stop to B/E as quickly as possible while leaving reasonable amount of battleground below.

Status: Done. Risked pip soldiers in safe territory.

Objective 2: See if more shorts show up and try and take out potentially strong support 104.60 / 105.00

Status: Undetermined.

Objective 3: If support goes, move stop tightly to capture potentially excessive enemy lost ground, possibly down to 102.00 area. If support doesnt go, pull all deployed troops out at stop or better.

1pipped,

Excellent post.

Really good way of thinking. Trading IS like a battle. It's you against every other market participant. Your capital is your troops and YOU are the commander.

Some people might roll their eyes at this analogy but I think it helps to think like that.

The newbies will always storm over the top firing a machine gun and they will get taken out by the snipers like you.

Tom

 

[VinceStanzione]

1pipped,

Excellent post.

Really good way of thinking. Trading IS like a battle. It's you against every other market participant. Your capital is your troops and YOU are the commander.

Some people might roll their eyes at this analogy but I think it helps to think like that.

The newbies will always storm over the top firing a machine gun and they will get taken out by the snipers like you.

Tom

Given that 1pipped has moved to a lower timeframe, quick one for you T_D:-

Are you having much success in replicating your strategy on the other TFs (ie opposed to daily, 1HR, etc).

BTW, that chart you posted from training in work on S/R is excellent.

Thanks,
VS

 

[1Pipped]

Thanks VS & TD glad you liked the analogy.

I dont normally 'watch' markets but Ive got no work to do today and it is tempting! But 15 hundred hours reconnaissance has been completed and Ive determined there was 'nothing to do', so Im not going to 'watch'

 

[VinceStanzione]

No hassle 1pipped - in work myself for my sins.

Did catch the surprise news on the mere 25bp cut in the BoE rate at lunchtime when I was "havin' the
dinner".

Might be something to bear in mind on Cable/EURGBP charts this afternoon.

 

[trader_dante]

Given that 1pipped has moved to a lower timeframe, quick one for you T_D:-

Are you having much success in replicating your strategy on the other TFs (ie opposed to daily, 1HR, etc)

I'll update you when I've got enough "sim time" under my belt to report on the validity

 

[VinceStanzione]

Cheers T_D,

The law of large numbers states that the experience of a sample of 30 random trials is sufficently
accurate to reflect the reality of the random event a statistician is analysing....:smart:

(I think I need to get out more....!)

Anywho, I've always found this target of 30 useful when analysing the results of any trading techiques during testing.

Just something to bear in mind.

Cheers Lad,
VS

 

[Glenborrell]

Corn v Soybean

TD,

Did you take the Corn trade today? I have not taken the Soybean trade. Thought about what you said and thought i might observe from the sidelines (plus had the big boss sitting over my shoulder most of today which makes it a bit difficult to watch the markets). Looks like it might have been a good move though becuase the price never really broke the support at 1311.

On tonights Corn chart i am seeing a pin setup. The nose is not as long as would like. Bar is 3 and nose is 8.3. So just under 3 times the length. The close is not within the previous bar though. See chart. Close to support, 61 fib, and 21ema. You see the same thing? Yours thoughts.

Glen

 

[1Pipped]

Definately OUT.

Casualties: About 3 soldiers or so, I forgot about the rollover interest.

Debriefing: A good mission, if slightly annoying. I was aware the support could be strong around 105.ish thats why stop was moved quickly. If the support had been taken out, that big candle that took me out could have been the opposite way round which would have been more than acceptable !