Making Money Trading

[VinceStanzione]

Hi Mark,

Welcome to the thread!

I'll have a look at the chart after work this evening & will give you my thoughts then.

Bear in mind though, it will only be my $0.02.

It's the market price when the trade is closed/stopped out that determines if a trade is successful or not:clap:

 

[LOVEJOY80]

Hi Mark,

Welcome to the thread!

I'll have a look at the chart after work this evening & will give you my thoughts then.

Bear in mind though, it will only be my $0.02.

It's the market price when the trade is closed/stopped out that determines if a trade is successful or not:clap:

Thanks Vince. How do you post charts here? I'll post up my charts with S?R etc drawn to show why I made the trade.

 

[VinceStanzione]

OK, finally out of work for today...I've reviewed your earlier post Mark & here's what I've come up with:-

"Anyway, I did my first trade today (rightly or wrongly!). Noticed a pin bar on the daily GBPJPY last night and an hourly one formed this morning. haven't played the daily pin... "


VS Comment #1: I opened the Daily GBPJPY chart in such a fashion that I can see exaclty one year's worth of data. The first thing that I notice is that this pair has posted recent lows around the 23rd Jan 2008 of approx 204.50. In particular, I believe this pair has been range-trading since 11 Januaty 2008, between the recent low & 213.50.

Certainly, we wish to see our pin bars occurring at (extreme) swing highs/lows. The fact that the pin occurs during a potential post 11 January 2008 period of consolidation worries me.

VS Comment #2: Now let's analyse the pin bar itself.

I've had a look at the latest daily bar - ie at 2008.02.10 00:00 - and this looks more like a doji to me.
The 2008.02.11 00:00 bar is still forming, but looks like a potential pin bar (albeit, not at a swing high or low). Please post the OHLC stats of the daily pin bar in question, if I have analysed the wrong bar.

I'll now use my pinbar worksheet to see if this pin satisfies the technical criteria.

Does it have a long nose in proportion to its body? As stated above, the bar I believe you're referring to is a doji => invalidates all the rest of the questions instantly.

..but played the hourly. Entered at 20850 with stop at 20677.


VS Comment #3:

OK, lets move the 1hr chart & see if any pin-bars exist.

There is a potential bar (based on the rules of the pinbar spreadsheet) on the 1Hr charts at 11am, but it's nose certainly doesn't stick out far enough the low of the previous bar. I wouldn't play it as a result. Is this the bar you used to enter with?

At this stage, I'd have serious doubts that this is a high prob trade, based on t_d's method. I've drawn a line under at 11 am bar to see if it's a major S/R resistance pivot point - and if you think of t_d's training graph from a few pages ago, I don't believe it is.

In addition (!!), your risk to reward ratio of less than 1:1 is too low.

Conclusion - I'd have passed on this trade.

OTHER TRADERS, PLEASE GIVE YOUR FEEDBACK ON THIS!!!

Here's the key thing for you - I think you said you made 30 pips on your trade. The thing is, despite my comments above, you actually made profit!!

But here's what you have to consider:- we're looking for a high prob. edge that will consistently earn profits over time. Applying your set-up rationale to 30 or so entries - I believe - would leave you account in the red.

As I said earlier, just my $0.02!!

Thanks for reading,
VS

 

[Ljr]

Hi,

I'm new to this forum and have just finished digesting this thread and the 3 Ducks thread - so much useful information on this forum and all for free, beats those rubbish seminars that cost £3k+ any day!

Anyway, I did my first trade today (rightly or wrongly!). Noticed a pin bar on the daily GBPJPY last night and an hourly one formed this morning. haven't played the daily pin but played the hourly. Entered at 20850 with stop at 20677.

Main target was 20940 (resistance on 4H) with resistance on the lower TF (5min) at 20830 and 20873 as intermediate targets. Unfortunately the first resistance proved too strong (38.2 fib level) and trade eventually exited at stop loss (which I'd moved to 20780 as this resistance developed during the day on 5min chart) for a 30 point profit. So not great from a RR point of view (30/73 = 0.41) and should have exited at the 38.2% fib level.

Has anyone else played this trade, was this a bad trade? Anyone playing the daily pin?

Thanks for any advice
Mark

Hi All

I have just finished reading this thread from the beginning. Loads of very usefull info here and thanks to TD for the considerable effort and all others that have posted. Need to start putting these learnings to practice now but am going to take it slowly to start with.

Lovejoy80 in addition to what Vince S has said all I can add is i remember TD saying somewhere along the line that you should not move your stop until you are sure there isnt another pull back (or something like that). If you had delayed moving your stop you could have potentially made another 100 pips. Hope i got that right.

I was a bit confused at first reading your post as you say you entered at 20850. I am assuming you meant 20750 if you had got in just after the Pin Bar formed at 08h00

Regards

Leon

 

[Ljr]

Originally Posted by lurkerlurker
Yes, I think we should. Pin bars come up here, but the purpose of this thread is for TD to teach us all about trading, and posting too many live pin bar calls pollutes that. It is important for TD to post the setups he takes, but what we do is less relevant to the thread.

I've started a thread where we can post live pin bar calls. I'll be adding my website to that soon too!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/28103-forex-pin-bars.html#post381408

great stuff Lurker. I hope you don't mind the odd index pin being posted for consideration. not to mention pork bellies' pins ( I don't trade them I just like telling people when they ask what I do- - "oh yeah there's money in pork bellies") .. really there is no reason to limit the thread to any instrument group.

What happened to this thread? Anybody keen to start it up again?

 

[DannyBly]

I've traded stocks and futures - right now my focus is on forex : )

 

[VinceStanzione]

Originally Posted by lurkerlurker
Yes, I think we should. Pin bars come up here, but the purpose of this thread is for TD to teach us all about trading, and posting too many live pin bar calls pollutes that. It is important for TD to post the setups he takes, but what we do is less relevant to the thread.

I've started a thread where we can post live pin bar calls. I'll be adding my website to that soon too!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/forex-strategies-systems/28103-forex-pin-bars.html#post381408

What happened to this thread? Anybody keen to start it up again?

I'm willing to help out on any thread geared towards highlighting pin bars.

 

[LOVEJOY80]

Hi All

I have just finished reading this thread from the beginning. Loads of very usefull info here and thanks to TD for the considerable effort and all others that have posted. Need to start putting these learnings to practice now but am going to take it slowly to start with.

Lovejoy80 in addition to what Vince S has said all I can add is i remember TD saying somewhere along the line that you should not move your stop until you are sure there isnt another pull back (or something like that). If you had delayed moving your stop you could have potentially made another 100 pips. Hope i got that right.

I was a bit confused at first reading your post as you say you entered at 20850. I am assuming you meant 20750 if you had got in just after the Pin Bar formed at 08h00

Regards

Leon

Thanks for the advice - I've included charts to make it easier to visualize. Yes my entry was 20750 and not 20850. If I hadn't move my stop loss look what would have happened with todays big upswing - 300+ point anyone playing the daily pin?

Apologies for the quality of the attachments - its the best I could figure out¬

I agree lets post potential pins to discuss on the other thread.

Mark

 

[1Pipped]

I hope someone got this, I missed it as I dont usually fish in the GBPCHF hole. Looked good though.

 

[VinceStanzione]

I'd say the capital involved (ie from pinbar H to L) may have put people off...

Despite this, at the very least a trader would have a R:R ratio of 1:1.

1pipped, I believe attention is beginning to turn to the Forex "Pin" Bar thread; we don't wish to distract T_D from posting his gems & tie-up traders new to his concepts.

The more people we have actively looking for pin-bars (& posting their findings to the one thread/forum), the better!!

 

[1Pipped]

It is a big bar VS. Would be alright with a small deal though.

Speaking of GBPCHF, if you happened to be in that right now TD would you be looking for inside bars to play below the top of the channel that has formed ?

On the attached chart I have drawn the s/r line at a round number, I would have had it a little bit lower but I moved it up so it was on the round number. Would you wait for a way to get on the break of the round number or would you look for a break below... say near the high last week (where rate is now) ?

I wouldnt want to look for a break where it is now because of the round number that is still in 'the zone' right above, but I wouldnt want to look for a break above in case its still in the zone... I think my worries are I dont really know where the zone is !

Perhaps wait for a break and a retest from above before getting involved ? That is actually my plan at the moment. I dont usually watch this rate but I have put it on the hit list to see if a decent pin forms over the top.

 

[trader_dante]

It is a big bar VS. Would be alright with a small deal though.

Speaking of GBPCHF, if you happened to be in that right now TD would you be looking for inside bars to play below the top of the channel that has formed ?

On the attached chart I have drawn the s/r line at a round number, I would have had it a little bit lower but I moved it up so it was on the round number. Would you wait for a way to get on the break of the round number or would you look for a break below... say near the high last week (where rate is now) ?

I wouldnt want to look for a break where it is now because of the round number that is still in 'the zone' right above, but I wouldnt want to look for a break above in case its still in the zone... I think my worries are I dont really know where the zone is !

Perhaps wait for a break and a retest from above before getting involved ? That is actually my plan at the moment. I dont usually watch this rate but I have put it on the hit list to see if a decent pin forms over the top.

1Pipped,

I have entered the ABN Amro Trading Competition (£5k prize).

I am actually in that exact position in the competition.

I have built a large position from the daily pin off the strong support and adding more as price is coming into the top of the channel.

I have my s/r pivot at 218.00 dead.

I anticipate a break and have more buy orders every 20 pips up starting at 218.10 to catch potential momentum if we get a breakout.

If I was trading this with real money (which I certainly would be if I was allowed) and I was not already in, I would wait for a breakout and then a retest of the resistance from above.

Alternatively you could wait for the inside bar coming into it. It depends on your personal preference.

 

[omni]

TD, how do you manage the stops if you buying in every 20pips? Various levels or all at the same? What is the future like at futex? What stuff have you been "sim"ing of late?

 

[1Pipped]

1Pipped,

I have entered the ABN Amro Trading Competition (£5k prize).

I am actually in that exact position in the competition.

I have built a large position from the daily pin off the strong support and adding more as price is coming into the top of the channel.

I have my s/r pivot at 218.00 dead.

I anticipate a break and have more buy orders every 20 pips up starting at 218.10 to catch potential momentum if we get a breakout.

If I was trading this with real money (which I certainly would be if I was allowed) and I was not already in, I would wait for a breakout and then a retest of the resistance from above.

Alternatively you could wait for the inside bar coming into it. It depends on your personal preference.

TD excellent Im glad my plan is the same as yours. I noted a decent looking opposite pin off the ceiling last time I looked (about half an hour ago) but I didnt put a short order in for some reason.

GOOD LUCK IN THE COMPETITION :clover::clover::clover:

 

[trader_dante]

TD excellent Im glad my plan is the same as yours. I noted a decent looking opposite pin off the ceiling last time I looked (about half an hour ago) but I didnt put a short order in for some reason.

There have been some excellent pins on the 4hr at the range extremes. They show how this strategy works as well in range bound markets as well as in trending.

GOOD LUCK IN THE COMPETITION :clover::clover::clover:

Thanks! I'm currently in 17th place.

 

[trader_dante]

TD, how do you manage the stops if you buying in every 20pips? Various levels or all at the same?

After the first breakout failed I exited most of the position. I've put the stops on the rest on the other side of the range until I get a feel for how this is going to behave. I thought perhaps it might retraced just enough to take out the longs before trying again but now I'm not so sure...

What is the future like at futex?

The future is unknown. Sorry to be vague but that is the only way I can truly answer.

What stuff have you been "sim"ing of late?

We've only got a few markets on sim (Bund, Dax, FTSE, EuroStoxx and GBP/USD) although more are often added.

Anyway, how's things with you omni? Any interesting setups you've got your eye on?

 

[VinceStanzione]

There have been some excellent pins on the 4hr at the range extremes. They show how this strategy works as well in range bound markets as well as in trending.



Thanks! I'm currently in 17th place.

17th out of 17 T_D?

...I'm joking!

Best of luck with it.

 

[trader_dante]

17th out of 17 T_D?

...I'm joking!

Best of luck with it.

lol!

 

[jonj]

17th out of 17 T_D?

...I'm joking!

Best of luck with it.

think youlle make the 80% to take the lead???
good luck

 

[trader_dante]

think youlle make the 80% to take the lead???
good luck

I'll do my best!!