M = Market Direction

[erierambler]

Placeholder for "M" from HTMMIS.

 

[dbphoenix]

It'll be the fifth, from 1.00 to 2.25.

Edit: Sorry, the sixth, from 1.00 presumably to 2.50. The above was as of December.

 

[SOCRATES]

db, can you explain to me why it is that in the US when there is a hike in interest rates, the property prices go UP instead of down, like everywhere else, as the effect of a restriction of credit is felt ? I am puzzled.

 

[erierambler]

It'll be the sixth, from 1.00 presumably to 2.50. .

Thanks db, O'Neil writes of keeping one's eye on this rate. Is there a benchmark one would regard as becoming detrimental to a bull market?

erie

 

[dbphoenix]

Whichever one causes the reversal, as in the one previous to the lower high in '00.

I'm hoping this thread doesn't turn into market calls. There are plenty of threads that address that. As O'N said long ago (and Wyckoff said long before that), you don't need to know what's going to happen. All you need to know is what has happened and what is happening. So I'm staying focused on what is (the point of my index thread in the PV Forum).

 

[erierambler]

Whichever one causes the reversal, as in the one previous to the lower high in '00.

I'm hoping this thread doesn't turn into market calls. There are plenty of threads that address that. As O'N said long ago (and Wyckoff said long before that), you don't need to know what's going to happen. All you need to know is what has happened and what is happening. So I'm staying focused on what is (the point of my index thread in the PV Forum).

This is about market direction here and I thought the fed rate was part of that discussion topic. I could have brought it up in your forum as well,( it never occurred to me) but since Andy started this here it prompted me to start reading HTTMIS again and ran across the Fed rate and it also coincided with a release today. Another thing to note in my trading plan.


erie

 

[ajaskey]

This is about market direction here and I thought the fed rate was part of that discussion topic. I could have brought it up in your forum as well,( it never occurred to me) but since Andy started this here it prompted me to start reading HTTMIS again and ran across the Fed rate and it also coincided with a release today. Another thing to note in my trading plan.
erie

erie,

Fair enough. I will start a thread called Secondary Indicators which will cover those things in HTMMIS not directly part of C-A-N-S-L-I-M. I will also post a list of topics that should be discussed in each thread (hopefully I will have all the placeholders filled in by next Monday).

My thoughts are that posters should attempt to post to the correct thread, BUT please don't avoid posting if you are not sure which thread something goes in. I will move posts from thread to thread (and replies made before I move the post). I think it is more important to post than to worry about the thread. The benefit of being here at T2W is that the moderator (me) can move posts around to keep the threads clean.

Post first and worry about aiming later... :cheesy:

Andy

 

[dbphoenix]

Erie, market calls aren't part of my thread, either, which is why I said it's focused on what is, not what will be.

However, the content of this particular thread is entirely up to Andy, which is as it should be. But I'd caution participants to take O'N's/Wyckoff's sentiments to heart.

Incidentally, Andy, feel free to delete this and my previous post, if you like.

 

[SOCRATES]

My question is, and remains, if the Fed tightens (raises interest rates) which means there is a restriction of credit, surely to curb money supply (the availability of purchasing power) why is is that property prices go up instead of down, as I am assured by realtors (estate agents) in the United States this is the case?

If db is either unwilling or unable to answer this question as a result of the above posts, is there anybody willing to offer an explanation of this apparent mystery? Any sensible offers welcome.

 

[sulong]

My question is, and remains, if the Fed tightens (raises interest rates) which means there is a restriction of credit, surely to curb money supply (the availability of purchasing power) why is is that property prices go up instead of down, as I am assured by realtors (estate agents) in the United States this is the case?

If db is either unwilling or unable to answer this question as a result of the above posts, is there anybody willing to offer an explanation of this apparent mystery? Any sensible offers welcome.

It's got to do with demand and supply. Cut the supply and demand rises ( fear of missing out).

 

[SOCRATES]

Yes, this is exactly what a realtor said to me, face to face in conversation. Therefore it seems that the cost of money (the borrowing rate) does not enter the equation. Is this correct ?

 

[sulong]

Therefore it seems that the cost of money (the borrowing rate) does not enter the equation. Is this correct ?

No not really.
These small rate hikes have the effect of poking the consumer in the butt to encourage them to spend before it's too late.
At some point, these pokes will not work any longer, at that time all that wanted to spend, has already spent.
Then a different type of encouragement will need to be offered to create a demand.

 

[dbphoenix]

Two other threads are addressing the "M", but this seems the most appropriate place to point out that, even though M reportedly -- at least traditionally -- has a substantial effect on the performance of one's choices, one need not necessarily stay out of the market if it is merely directionless, or even if it's moving in the opposite direction of one's choices if those choices are part of a sector that's in a countertrend.

For example, I made quite a few selections recently using CANSLIM EZ. Nearly all of them are just sitting there, just like the market. One of them, however, QSII, has done extremely well.

So the moral of the story, I suppose, is that you never know, and accepting dogma without question is not always the most advantageous choice. As long as one is prepared to exit if the stock doesn't do what it's supposed to do, one can achieve superior returns even when the market is just sitting there buffing its nails.

 

[ajaskey]

Distribution at the bottom of the range

Interesting... so far the distribution days have been near the top of the range. Today the Naz had a higher volume down day at the bottom of the range. I have not seen the volume for the SPX yet.

Andy

 

[erierambler]

$spx

The SPX has had some gaps in the last few months ( circled ). Price tested the 1203 gap twice and then gapped up at 1210. Price did not facilitate much trade above 1216. Then both gaps have been filled and the area around 1203 has been worked. Keeping an eye to see if there is follow through down today. Chart attached.

erie

 

[erierambler]

$spx

One more gap filled and one made.

erie

 

[erierambler]

$spx

Gap between 1163-64 filled.

erie

 

[dbphoenix]

Not sure what the significance of these gaps is to you. They happen all the time and don't mean much, particularly since they're intra-range. What matters more are support and resistance. Fireworks are more likely as we near support. Until then, unless one has a strategy for trading intra-range, he'd do well to stand aside.

 

[imahippi]

Two other threads are addressing the "M", but this seems the most appropriate place to point out that, even though M reportedly -- at least traditionally -- has a substantial effect on the performance of one's choices, one need not necessarily stay out of the market if it is merely directionless, or even if it's moving in the opposite direction of one's choices if those choices are part of a sector that's in a countertrend.

For example, I made quite a few selections recently using CANSLIM EZ. Nearly all of them are just sitting there, just like the market. One of them, however, QSII, has done extremely well.

So the moral of the story, I suppose, is that you never know, and accepting dogma without question is not always the most advantageous choice. As long as one is prepared to exit if the stock doesn't do what it's supposed to do, one can achieve superior returns even when the market is just sitting there buffing its nails.

Hi dbphoenix
I sure appreciate your posts. Can you explain how I can set up Canlim EZ? I have been using the msn screener that harry domash suggested. I'm up but the stocks i've ended up with have been flat and down for the last few months.

I'm pretty new at this and sure would appreciate any reply you might have time for.
thanks
Jay

 

[dbphoenix]

I moved this to the CANSLIM EZ thread.