LTCM , Quants and averaging

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hefoba

Member
94 74
I agree that averaging down is an element of potential danger and I dont' average down, but I try to be a bit open minded, so I am not certain that every trader that averages down is a gambler doomed to blow.

I do not see how I trade can make that all I say is wrong.
I'm here to share views but I'm probably wrong todo so.

When one is young, one can become distracted and overconfident.
Gerard Pique
 

Pure Pip Producer

Well-known member
490 254
I do not see how I trade can make that all I say is wrong.
I'm here to share views
My dear hefoba, your view is not your view.
It is the view of millions and millions of traders.
Probably 99%. All those who think they finally can average down safety...
Until the wrong serie comes, then they can not manage the DD.
We know that, we were like that, we don't even want to speak about that anymore 🙏
Discuss about that is really losing time...
 
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Pure Pip Producer

Well-known member
490 254
We must become a "law of series" expert to manage a DD.
And what is the most funny and paradoxical, it's that the "law of series" experts are gamblers.
But not Gamblers as we think. They are called : Advantage Players.
Advantage Players are the only 0.1% of the Gamblers.
Those who win.
Always the same rate... like in trading, it's the same.
So, first, i would say that we must learn all about this branch of the theory of the games.
Yes! To manage a DD, learn all what is possible to learn about : "the law of the series".

EDIT : Especially about the speed of the occurrences.
You will all thank me later.
Have a nice evening 👍
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
553 814
From what I understand LTCM turned into a big martingale.
They were PhDs bu my idea of Quant trader is different.
My idea of Quant trading is Jim Simons and his Medallion.
 

hefoba

Member
94 74
@Pure Pip Producer I never talked about " average down" so please show we where I wrote about that here on T2Win.

I can understand that 3 months track record gives you power but for me, under 12 months track record I do not look at the system. Even if the god of trading is trading it.

Lets see in July 2021 how your track record is.
 

Pure Pip Producer

Well-known member
490 254
@Pure Pip Producer I never talked about " average down" so please show we where I wrote about that here on T2Win.

You don't need to talk about it. I can see it by looking at your Darwinex Trading Journal :

eod.jpg


That's a really beautifful average down.. that we all know how it will finish.

Your investors are not investors. They are simply unconscious and/or greedy people.

Once again, i'm sorry to be honest. I know that people like me a lot, until i'm honest with them...

But it's for your sake, i swear... 🙏




I can understand that 3 months track record gives you power but for me, under 12 months track record I do not look at the system. Even if the god of trading is trading it.

Lets see in July 2021 how your track record is.

I've around 2 years and 3 months of Native Darwinex Track-Record. Just check! I've no secret :

Darwin clos.jpg


(XRT +7.23%) + (CTA +6.95%) + (KIT +3.56%) + (EON -3.64%) = +14.1%

Drawdown max : -10.89%
 
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CavaliereVerde

Established member
553 814
We will compare EOD and PDC on August 2021

😸
 

hefoba

Member
94 74
Ok I understand. How I trade will do that everything I write will be bad.
Good approach to life and also lots of books written about that.
 

Pure Pip Producer

Well-known member
490 254
Not really, you can speak... but to ask to those who have a better Ra, Rs or La to help you.
Not to speak like you know things in trading.
Because if you knew things, you wouldn't have that Rs or La... and you would find something more original to do than the same of the 99.9% of the traders.


By the way, i've read 200 books about trading.
Almost all bullshits.
Probably only 10 was needed to increase the trading knowledge.
Now, I don't read anything because of that.
I'm more at the point to write my own book than to read others...
 

KlondikeFX

Junior member
17 54
OK, if we want to look at this from a more nuanced point of view, IMO there is a difference between grid trading and averaging into a position.

If you have a mean-reverting strategy that enters short on overbought levels and vice versa. It can be efficient to average into your position under certain circumstances as sometimes the exaggeration continues even further than you (or your algorithm) predicted.

Correctly averaging into a position is rather difficult because it's a thin line between a smart average down and stupid grid trading or "getting married" to your position.
 
 
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