Long term dow prospects....

stevet

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ok, you said "What you can't do is scalp in any way because of their bias. This is where they "advance" their spread by 10 or so points in an up move"

SBs always quote the same amount of spread, at least they did when i analysed them, since its an automatic computation - so what do you mean when u say the spread widens - i suspect i know what you mean - and its more to do with what spread betting clients call "flipping" - but is that what you mean or do you mean you get a physical quote which is wider?

and by the way, when i checked the spread betting companies out, this "flipping" effect was one of the key ways, or the only way, to make money out of spreadbetting as opposed to futures

the spread certainly used to widen in the non-cash hours, but not in the cash hours
 
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ChartMan

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No, the spreads during trading are cast in stone. Say 9200-9206 for the dow. In an steady move, the spread straddles the real time price, with perhaps a small bias in the direction of the trend. So, if we are in an uptrend and the chart price is 9123, their quote may be 9122-9128 etc. As you get to a peak and a reversal ,say, at a chart price of 9145, their price suddenly becomes 9130-9136. A negative bias of -9 - not uncommon. I have seen it as large as 15.. So to scalp you need 2x the spread=12 + 2 times the bias worst case = 42 odd points. NO chance, except by pure guesswork and luck, but you are still stuck with 12 spread EVEN if you guess/anticipate both peaks to perfection. Cleaned up today with over 300 points. Not bad for a part time trader...
 

stevet

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well done on the 300 points - but would you have ended up with that if you had been trading at $1,000 a point???

ok, in your example, suppose you had taken a short position at 9144-9150 ( I am assuming that your "chart price of 9145, was the cash price) , you would have immediatly been in the money when the price moved to 9130-9136, an immediate profit of 8 points, but more importantly, you would have immediatly taken out the spread and been on a free ride - and the dow is just about the only index you can do this on and if this happened as quickly as you say it does, it sounds like a fine scalping technique and one i used to enjoy doing - the main problem with the SBs is the time they take to confirm a postion, and the unreliability of their trading system if you are a high volume trader, and the lack of P&L facilities to keep track of the trades so you know where you are if you are making a lot of trades and are also in different markets

anyway, your response to my remarks will help me to respond in more depth to your points
 

Dino

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I guess you guys are talking about sbs on the indexes. Yes the spreads are pretty fixed and trying to beat the bias is pure guesswork (imho). However the spreads on stocks are quite fluid, this can work to your advantage but generally to your dissadvantage.

I would, however, say that trying to bag that bias on a longer term sb, say BAY Sept, is a worth-while challenge and the larger spreads on these stocks vs indexes is not so significant if, as chartman says, you take a longer term view and have a strategy.

If I have a stong view on a stock and see a bias in the opposite direction to my view I consider that extra money on the table to be had. It ups the risk however I have had some success at this.

I do view trading with the sb companies as a kind of challenge, on the other hand I have strict rules regarding stops etc. so don't intend giving them anything they don't deserve.

Dino.
 

stevet

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Dino

Trading stocks (imho) is a guaranteed way to loose money, unless it is part of an arbitrage strategy, and if you add in trading with a SB company, you might as well just open your wallet and tip it down the drain, and at least you'll save time

SB companies dont mind you making money, they make their bucks on the spread, its just that the mechanisms that they use to protect themselves from losing, unfortuneatly will make it real difficult for you to win

What is a "bias" - as in "beat the bias"?

Chartman said the longer term was hours, not minutes - does that fit with your "longer term view"?
 

ChartMan

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no way $1000. :) The SB co. has a max of £25 per point on the dow...Tonight's action from 20:13 to 20:27 ..... I caught all of that and more and sized up twice,once on the third low of the bull flag, and again on the flag break. I would have put the shirt off my back on that.....150 + points in 14 minutes and not a panick in sight...almost :) Scalping the dow is a waste of time, effort and energy...can be seriously damaging to your wealth and only end in tears. No, Iv'e been there done that and lost my shirt, thank you very much.
 

stevet

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ChartMan

I am not recomending anyone to trade either the DOW or use SB companies - trading the DOW is one of the hardest ways to make money, or rather the other indexes are way easier and trading with SBs is just a way to make SBs rich

I was asking if my example fitted with the example you had given

I only traded with SBs to see if there were any flaws in their systems - which there are - but the technical unreliability and the system delays diminish any real advantage from the flaws - trading with SBs is seriously damaging to all their customers wealth and ends in a lot of tears - there is no way to trade profitiably with them - but some might be good at losing less!

Most of their customers dont even have a clue how the prices the SBs give are derived - and ultimatley you are trading with 3 dimensional chess - between the cash, the futures price and the SB price, and ironically the fact that the SB price is ahead of charting prices by quite a fair way, so if you enter a trade based on a charting price - you are already on a loser
 
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ChartMan

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Hehe they can get as rich as they like just so long as I make my wedge. :) We all have to eat....If I make 150 points and they make 12, I'm happy. As for trading other indexes, I disagree.The spread is similar for the NAS, but at 1400 odd points, one is 6 or 7 times worse off .I hated trading the NAS , it was so unpredictable. If, as you say , the DOW is the hardest index to trade, then ther are several Traders Emeritus on this BB......and I'm not one of them :(
 

stevet

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i only trade the dow when i get a spread of a couple of points, and the Nas is always half a point - and a "trader emeritus" of which i am sure there must be some on here - should be trading large size - but would have to be a schmuck to trade large size with SBs.

i never get it when someone says they are in profit and consistently, but they bet small size and just like trading as a hobby - what a load of ********!

a small naz contract is $20 a point and a small dow is $5 a point and nazs are normally traded in 10s, and dows are trading depending on market liquidity, and s&ps are traded in 25s at $50 a point
 

Do

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Hi and thanks for interesting reading. I'm one of the schmucks who only trades using spreadbetting. Some of you imply that the SB's are a waste of time and money. What do you suggest instead? I always bet on the dow.
 

neil

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Spreads on Dow $5 Dow Contract

Steve

So what is the typical spread for trading a Dow $5 contract?

Any ideas on a suitable broker with low commissions?

Neil
 

stevet

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Do

Are you using a SB and making money?

I am told by the SB companies that no one makes money with them on an ongoing basis - some do make money on trades, but their losses are always more than their wins over time - and some have an awful lot of losses, but just keep going

The only way to make money, once you have the required skill, is to use futures contracts

neil

The $5 contract for the Dow is new, and has very little reliable liquidity - Professional traders would not trade it, since it is much easier just to trade the S&P or the Nasdaq, due to their high and increasing liquidity, which provides immediate fills, no slippage and narrow spreads.

On the S&P and Nasdaq, you will get a fill at market at the price you expected, in a second, and you can close a second later

I am not really into recomending brokers, but you need to find the cheapest you can get - professionals pay very little compared to the average small volume trader- and UK brokers want to charge around $15 a r/t for a new account - but you should not ever pay more than $10 per r/t and professionals are paying a third of that, and even less for uk and european contracts

There are other important issues with intraday margin which you need to also check as it affects your profit %









The only way to make money, once you have the required skill, is to use futures contracts
 
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At the bottom of your post above, you say that the only way to make money, once you have the required skill, is to use futures contracts.

I agree entirely with you.

But ... for those who feel they are blessed with sufficient skill to trade futures that is OK. However, for those who do not yet have those skills, then there is absolutely nothing to beat spread betting.

Yes, you get stung for the bias, but that is all part of the game. You learn to trade a) the Dow and b) the SB company and its bias. With practice you can get in front of the bias quite often, and out again before the bias goes against you. If you can learn your trading skills by beating the SB companies each day, then you can trade with the best in the world in the futures markets.

It's obvious from your comments that you have not used spread betting, but I am quite surprised (and disappointed) that you appear to mock those of us who choose to use SB for our learning and/or money-making.

It sounds to me as if you have had a bad experience with SB, and lost money. That is a pity, but I'm sure we have all been there. I certainly have been in the past, and it taught me some very good lessons using a very small amount of money to start off with.

Where else can you get the adrenalin rush, and pit your wits against the market and the SB company? Definitely not with paper trading!

Open a credit account (not a margin account) with £150, and you can trade away to your heart's content at 1p a point with Fins - this is superb for testing a new strategy, or just getting the feel of how the markets move in your favour and against you. And if you can't win regularly, then you will find out quite quickly and inexpensively that trading is perhaps not your cup of tea.
 

stevet

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Skimbleshanks

What most people who trade with SBs dont get - is that they are trading futures - but with a much much wider spread and potentially terrible fills which can cause real slippage

The price you trade at with SBs is the futures price but with a wider spread - and i can see from all the posts on here that no one gets that

You need a million times more skill to even stand a chance to make money out of SBs compared to futures.

The only real advantage with the SBs is as you state that you can trade for peanuts per point - and that is fine if you want to play around and tell your freinds you are trading and making money - but dont tell that to anyone who works in an SB because they dont have any clients making money - except from certain specific situations where someone is able to front run - and i dont want to go into what that is about - just take it from me that you are not going to be doing that

There is no "bias" - just a wide spread and crap fills

As i said before - i spent sometime looking for an edge with SB companies - and this was based on the fact that there is no commision - so you can scratch a trade for free, if you time it right - but ultimately their method of providing fills and their trading platform reliabilty makes it just too much hard work

Please bear in mind that i might trade a minimum of 50 round turns per day per contract, and i trade the ftse, dax, eurostoxx 50, s&p, and nas and sector indexes and arbitrage between each and stocks and average up on outright winning trades, so that on just one trade, i might end up with 50 orders

I definetly agree with your comment about paper trading, but i again repeat, if you are not trading large size, you wont feel the pressure you need to learn to trade

Just so you know - the average low level - low risk - futures trader - with mortgage kids etc - who just wants to earn his keep and not aim for the stars - makes around £2/3,000 a day

The beauty of trading is that if you can do it - and i dont mean bullshit - if you can really trade consistently well, there is no limit to what you can make - since you can do as many contracts as you want - subject to liquidity - that means you can make £100,000+ a day if you really wanted to and had the balls to go for it

You cannot test a strategy at a penny a point - since your reactions to the market movements at a penny a point, will be different to £100 a point or £1000 a point or whateve - a big big big difference

And what most amateurs dont get - is that there is nothing wrong with losing - losing is key to making money in the markets -because once you get on top of closing losing positions - you will be on the first step of the ladder to making money

So you are indicating that you make at least 6% a day or more -which with just a £10,000 starting account would give u on an annualised first year compounded basis - £1,086,093,432 ( i think this is the right calcualtion - but its late - i have had too much wine as well - but i am sure you get my point)

I am not anti SBs, nor anti traders learning - its just that i came on here to see if there was any professional traders who i could share some ideas with or else anyone who it might have been worth backing - and showing some real secrets to - but it seems everyone on here is already making money and dont want or need any help
 
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Riz

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Hi Stevet,

Been reading your comments with interest, certainly most useful...just one question with regard to this "I am told by the SB companies that no one makes money with them on an ongoing basis - some do make money on trades, but their losses are always more than their wins over time - and some have an awful lot of losses, but just keep going"...

I wonder if they would ever target someone who makes mony with them on an ongoing basis and take measures against them...what do you think? just suppose someone does make money with them on an ongoing basis...

Riz
 

stevet

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Riz

I have no idea for sure wether they would target someone or not, but i definetly doubt it for a number of reasons

They make their money from the spread, and that means that at anyone time, they probably have an equal number of people going short as they have long across all markets - so they automtically make the spread on each persons trade, without any risk to themselves

If their book goes out of balance, they offset into the market with futures contracts - their ideal business model just makes the money out of the spread - and that is a lot of money - so they have no reason to rip people off - most who trade with SBs just dont realise how wide the spread is that they are charged

Most of the staff who work at SBs dont have a clue about trading since the SBs are all computer driven and anyone you speak to is really just following a set path they have been taught in order to liase with their clients

Interesting enough, if anything, most people who work for SBs have been put off trading for life from what they have seen of people losing - if it was easy to make money with them - SBs would find it difficult to retain staff - since all the staff would leave and make their money from trading

The only way they could rip anyone off is to offer a price that chops off some points off a winning position - but they have a set spread - so if they really chopped some points off - you could just take the other side of the trade - so its just not worth their while to mess around - you really have to view them as glorified brokers - and frankly, they know they will end up with your money sooner or later!
 

Do

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Stevet

I am a novice using an SB and a live chart of the Dow. Simple for a simpleton.

I take your point of the 'excess spread' and as Chartman said the fact that the SB shift their position quicker than I can see.

So what I want to know is how in GB can I go about trading and/or viewing the Dow futures?
Thanks
 

options

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"Glorified brokers"?
Glorified bookies plain and simple.
A trade on the ftse future a few months back gave me over £400.
The same 'bet' with cmc would have returned half that.
People are lured to spread betting by the 'no' commission cost and the no tax bit.

If they stopped and realised that the commision and the tax from a trade like that is nowhere near £200 , then perhaps more people would trade futures direct.
Not knowing about trading direct is one reason people don't trade this way. The other is the £10 per tick. Too much for some,
but 'learning' the market is paramount. And before anyone mentions the mini ftse futures @£2 per point, the liquidity is just not there. I don't know of anyone who trades them. and the chart is not the same. Interestingly enough I don't know if the same applies to the mini dow/S&P etc ie, can the main chart of the dow etc be used to trade the mini?
Stupid question maybe, but the mini's are a market I know little about... at the moment

It's half nine and I've 'done' my days work a short from 4655 a little earlier to close at 4622. 33 points = £330. How much tax am I going to pay on that? and with commision of £3.40 you can't really go wrong. I'm happy with that. The rest of the day will be spent either trading set up's if they arise or working stratagies through the sb' to see if they work. Or I'll be going back to bed.

I hate spreadbetting because of the way they bias the spread. What you see is not what you get and they do adjust the price to suit. Your screen is showing one price, you click to close and they nick a couple more points from you while the main screen is showing the same price.
Having said that, I do use them a lot and repeatedly take 'small' bits from them without so far managing to give all of the account back to them. There are a lot of dow traders on here who do consistly well by trading the dow and only the dow, and I know some use a bit more than the penny a point discussed earlier. Horses for courses really I suppose.
Whatever you trade. Trade it well.

I'm going to add something here about a different method of trading because I know Stevet has an interest in this. and there are parts about the dow, but I appologise if it screws up the thread.

And Stevet? you wish to discuss trading stratagies? Fine, I try to keep things really simple, probably not a lot I could teach you, but I'm sure there are a few things you could teach me. I am always willing to learn methods and techniques that work.
Hell, I might even pick up that book on fibs again!

Being sponsered?
I would be more frightened of losing your money than I am of losing my own! I only trade one contract at a time at present, 5 or 7 and it would start to get very interesting. I wonder if I would be able to maintain my average strike rate of 7 out of 10? This I acheive by not having to trade and I actually look all the time for reasons not to trade
I am still learning this game after about 5 years and only really trading the futures seriously for about a year. It's all an ongoing process.
I only look to trade 2/3 times per day on one side of my trading personality, the other side is in and out all day long. Tiring and the commision racks up.

I don't think the charts on this article are going to load up. So if anyone wants to see them, please e mail me.


Profile:
Larry Pesavento
by Howard Arrington
In May my brother John and I visited Larry Pesavento in Tucson, Az. We were able to talk with Larry about his research in the areas of astro-cycles and about his books. Perhaps we learned the most just by watching a master trader make several successful trades during our two-day visit.

Larry Pesavento is the author of 7 books, a frequent contributor to the Market Mavens web site ( www.marketmavens.com ), and has privately trained more than 300 students. Larry has been a broker for Drexal-Burnham-Lambert, is a former member of the C.M.E., and is currently a private trader for a large hedge fund.

Larry said the ‘Holy Grail’ does not exist, but the closest thing to it can be found in astronomical phenomena. The key planets to pay attention to are Mercury, Venus, Mars, and Jupiter. He pays attention to aspectations of the planets and eclipses using an ephemeris.

The fascinating part of our visit was watching Larry day trade Nasdaq stocks, euro-currency, bonds, soybeans, and the S&P. His approach was very effective and really quite simple. He used 2 tools exclusively. Larry said he has no interest in any of the standard studies such as moving averages, oscillators, Stochastic, or relative strength and does not use any studies. I believe the reason for not using studies is that they lag behind the market action.

The tool he uses for picking price objectives is the Fibonacci Levels tool. His afternoon homework to prepare for the next trading day is to mark hourly and daily bar charts with Fibonacci price levels, looking for key prices, and favorite patterns such as Gartley and butterfly patterns. Multiple Fibonacci tools might be applied to a chart, and the keys prices are those where there is congestion of multiple levels at the same price. The Fibonacci Levels used are 0.618, 0.786, 1.00, 1.272, and 1.618. These 5 numbers are the 5 sacred numbers used by Larry.

The really fascinating 2nd tool used by Larry is a proprietary analysis tool that tells him WHEN to place a trade. This tools focuses on TIME. Larry said that Time is the most important aspect of a chart. Too many traders focus on Price, instead of Time, and that is why they are not as successful as they might be. Larry had great confidence in his Time forecasts. It clearly told him when to go long and when to go short. Thus, he was not glued to the computer screen. In fact, he was very relaxed when he traded and not obsessed with watching the computer charts. We observed that Larry would know that the trade would be on until the Time for the next turn, and until that time arrived, he basically had nothing to do but wait. And indeed he would wait.

Thus, Larry is armed with 2 effective tools: one for Price and one for Time. When the market is trading at the juncture of these two tools, he would place a trade, which is a counter trade with the expectation that the market will reverse direction. Larry trades at a price that is one of the Fibonacci Levels of a prior major move. He always placed a reasonable stop at the time he made the trade. Then he would basically count on the probabilities to be in his favor, that the market would reverse direction and his trade would work out. If the trade did not work out, his loss would be small and manageable because of the stop loss. The trading he did the first day of our visit had 5 winners and 2 losers, for a gain for the day of over ten thousand dollars. Larry said a typical good day for his day trading would be up $20,000, and a really bad day would be to lose $50,000. Of course his expectation is to have good days 3 times a week.

This is the method I observed that Larry used for his day trading. He would watch for correlation in his Time forecast with market turns. Call it harmony. If the chart was showing good correlation, meaning actual turns are happening within 15 minutes of the forecast time for the turn and had the right direction going into the turn, then Larry would have confidence in the Time forecast and trade the chart. If the correlation was ‘off’, the chart would be ignored. So, the market has to be in sync or harmony with his Time forecasts on his 2-minute bar charts.

Then, when the market was at the TIME for a trend change, Larry would use the Fibonacci Levels tool with the 5 sacred numbers to see which level should be used for the price for his trade. We observed for one S&P trade he made, the market was descending, but slightly above the 1.27 level. It was time for the market to change, so he called his broker (he abhors electronic trading), placed an order to buy S&P at the 1.27 level price, and placed a stop a few points lower. A few minutes later the S&P traded beyond his entry price by a few ticks, reversed, and then traded upward right on schedule exactly as expected. I was very impressed to watch the master at work to correctly call both the time of the turn, and the price for the turn. Then he basically turned his back to his computers and visited with us, quite relaxed about his trade. The Time for the next turn was 35 minutes away, and thus this trade did not need further concern until 35 minutes had passed. Possibly he would raise his stop to break even. He demonstrated the greatest of confidence in his trade, and in his tools for picking the Time and the Price of the trade.



Larry uses the Ensign 6 program, an older DOS based program written by Ensign Software and very popular 10 years ago. He has the BMI satellite feed. He also has the QCharts program, but that seemed to be secondary or used as a back up data feed. His Ensign screens showed one or two charts. On the screen he would overlay a list of symbols showing the current price and net. He did not use any studies and did not look for divergence. While day trading he only looked at 2-minute bar charts. His charts had his proprietary Time tool, and the Fibonacci Levels tool (typically just 1) that would be drawn when a price needed to be selected for the trade about to be made. If the market was at the 0.618 level, that is the price that would be used. He did not have any preconceived notion as to how much profit a trade needed to have when it was removed. He traded based on knowing the Time for the next turn, and took what ever Fibonacci Level price the market was nearest WHEN it was the time for a trend change. Sorry I keep harping on the issue of Time, but it definitely was the KEY to the method Larry uses for day-trading.

Now, a Fibonacci Levels tool is readily available in most charting software packages. However, the timing tool Larry uses is proprietary and not available in any commercial software package. Believe me......it is proprietary and his closely guarded secret. Rather than leave everyone groping for a timing tool, permit me to suggest consideration of the following timing tools as possible substitutes.

1) Use the Fibonacci Ruler where the measurement is from trend low to trend low, and the extension percentages beyond the right side low are the sacred numbers of 0.618, 0.786, 1.00, 1.272, and 1.618. This idea is discussed in the January 2000 Trading Tips newsletter.

2) Use the End-of-Square in the Pyrapoint tool in Ensign Windows. This is a powerful tool that suggests price levels and measures time. Many of the market turns occur at End-of-Square. The biggest disadvantage of using Pyrapoint is you will have excess End-of-Square boundaries. More can be read about Pyrapoint in the January 2001 Trading Tips newsletter.

3) Use Gann Fans placed on significant trend lows and highs and watch the intersection of fan lines with each other and with the horizontals from the trend lows and trend highs. This timing technique was discussed in the July 2000 Trading Tips newsletter.

4) Use cycles to find repetitive patterns. Read more about cycles in these Trading Tips newsletters:

February 2000 'Cycle Calendar'
December 2000 'Cycles Tool'
February 2001 'Moon Phases'



This chart illustrates the process of using the Fibonacci Levels tool in conjunction with a timing tool (cycles in the example). The cycles tool shows a pattern of an opening low and a mid-day low. The conjunction of the timing tool with the Fibonacci levels tools would give a Buy at the 127% price of 9.45 at 12 o'clock on May 30th. This is not one of Larry's trades because Larry does not follow any stock under $20 and does not use the cycles tool for his timing. The example was hand picked with the benefit of hindsight to illustrate the principles being taught.

Now, is Larry's timing based on any of the above? The answer is no, it is not. His timing tool is mathematical and examines past data for repetitive behavior. Sorry the suggestions listed above will not be as effective as Larry's timing tool. I wish I had his tool. I would use it if I had it because I think his tool gives him a competitive advantage and puts the probability of a winning trade in his favor. It truly was a pleasure to watch a master trader at work: comfortable, confident, and very successful.

Larry has a web site, managed by one of his students. The web site address is www.tradingtutor.com. To learn more about Larry Pesavento, please visit his web site and check out the services that are available there.

Sacred Numbers

Where do the sacred numbers come from? All are related to the Fibonacci number sequence as follows.

0.618 is the Fibonacci sequence ratio. Example 55 / 89 = 0.618
0.786 is the square root of 0.618.
1.00 is 100 percent of the measured distance.
1.272 is the square root of 1.618.
1.618 is the inverse of 0.618.



Trading Tip:
Gartley Pattern
by Howard Arrington
One of the formations that Larry Pesavento looks for is the Gartley pattern, which is named after H. M. Gartley who wrote 'Profits in the Stock Market' in 1935. The following chart shows a Gartley Buy formation.



The market has had a sizeable move down to put in a bottom at point X, which is now considered a potential turning point. The Gartley pattern is one with an initial correction to point A, and then a 3 wave retest back towards the turn at point X. The 3 waves back down are labeled in the example as B-C-D. There should be symmetry in the retrace, namely A-B equals C-D. Point D should be around 0.618 of the X-A distance. The example shows point D exceeding the 0.786 retrace distance. The trading tip is to buy point D with a protective stop below point X. The risk is small because you are buying at point D and the stop is below X. The example shows the market closed well above point D, and then gapped up the following day for a beautiful trade.

Keep in mind we did not initially pick X as the bottom. We waited for buying support to move the market to point A, and then bought on the retracement approach back to X, looking for a three wave retracement pattern that fulfilled a 0.618 retracement distance. A likely play of the Gartley formation on this chart would be to buy at 9.37 with a protective stop at 9.27.

The inverse pattern at potential tops would be the Gartley Sell formation. Sell the retest approach to the top turn at the 0.618 retrace level, with a protective stop above the top turn price.
 
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