Learning to trade from youtube

Shakone said:
He also doesn't believe in the moon landings and has some very dodgy statistical claims by using heiken ashi to trick the audience
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I didn't know the moon landing was prerequisites for profitable trading. I imagine it's something to do with the luna cycle, such as august full moon is good for market and so on ?

So what is your claim on the heiken ashi statistics ? It would only be reasonable if you can present more accurate statistic before saying other people's are wrong.

I haven't looked into heiken ashi and I would be happy to take claims at face value. If I were to use it, I would naturally verify it. I presume other people would do the same.
 
Shakone said:
He also doesn't believe in the moon landings and has some very dodgy statistical claims by using heiken ashi to trick the audience
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:LOL: nice one Shak'!
I guess he mentioned the moon landings early on in the vid' - which I skipped through - so I missed that.

And yes, I agree with you on the Heiken-Ashi (HA) front. You can't make statistical claims about HA and attribute the kind of significance to them that he does. (For anyone wondering why not, HA bars can print green indicating the market rose on a day when in fact it dropped in price.) That said, I'll be devil's advocate and speculate what he would say in response to that criticism. Namely, that it doesn't matter if the stats are accurate and meaningful as HA is designed to smooth out the noise and that it does a reasonable job of establishing a basic direction on a higher timeframe.

Although it's flawed, I guess the question is - is it any more flawed (or does it work less well) than any other method for achieving what he claims it achieves - i.e. an initial bias towards being long or short?
Tim.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
I didn't know the moon landing was prerequisites for profitable trading. I imagine it's something to the luna cycle, such as august full moon is good for market and so on ?

So what is your claim on the heiken ashi statistics ? It would only be reasonable if you can present more accurate statistic before saying other people's are wrong.

I haven't looked into heiken ashi so I would be happy to take claims at face value. If I were to use it, I would naturally verify it. I presume other people will do the same.
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I didn't say belief in moon landings was a pre-requisite. I just remarked on some other things of note in the video.

He claims that Heiken Ashi predicts the next day's movement with 75-80% accuracy.

However, the way he counts Heiken Ashi being right, is not on whether the market moved that way, it's based on the colour of the Heiken Ashi bar.

As an example, get a daily chart of EURUSD. Lets take 6th September. On his Heiken Ashi bar, it will appear as a down red day (it does if I do it anyway), and he would use that as a 'right' prediction, because he predicted that day would be down. But if you look at a non Heiken Ashi chart (say a bar chart), you'll see that price opened near the low of the day and closed near the high of the day, so not really a down day at all.

Now is it that my Heiken Ashi is not displaying correctly, or is it that his claim is bogus?
 
Purple Brain said:
Is that a Japanese beer?
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:LOL: PB!

As I've said above, IMO there are question marks over his use of HA. However, I concur with everything he says about Renko - which has been my 'go to' chart of choice for many years now.
Tim.
 
Shakone said:
I didn't say belief in moon landings was a pre-requisite. I just remarked on some other things of note in the video.

He claims that Heiken Ashi predicts the next day's movement with 75-80% accuracy.

However, the way he counts Heiken Ashi being right, is not on whether the market moved that way, it's based on the colour of the Heiken Ashi bar.

As an example, get a daily chart of EURUSD. Lets take 6th September. On his Heiken Ashi bar, it will appear as a down red day (it does if I do it anyway), and he would use that as a 'right' prediction, because he predicted that day would be down. But if you look at a non Heiken Ashi chart (say a bar chart), you'll see that price opened near the low of the day and closed near the high of the day, so not really a down day at all.

Now is it that my Heiken Ashi is not displaying correctly, or is it that his claim is bogus?
Click to expand...

Trends continue. I don't see it flawed to claim higher probability for that to occur whether using heiken ashi or something else. Until you come up with your statistics for it, I will be happy accept his claim based simply on the deduction that trends continue.

My impression of his comment on the moon landing was that I didn't know what he was trying to say. Maybe it was a joke of some kind. But it shouldn't invalidate the other things he said unless you come up with a counter claim on the stats.

I think people on t2w have loosed too much and too often to believe making money is possible. So you dismiss everything. I know for a fact it is possible. The reason I present the video was because he hit some key points that would make profit possible. As for what those points are, I won't say. I am not sharing except in a roundabout sort of way. If you want it, you have to put in the effort.
 
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BeginnerJoe said:
Trends continue. I don't see it flawed to claim higher probability for that to occur whether using heiken ashi or something else. Until you come up with your statistics for it, I will be happy accept his claim based simply on the deduction that trends continue.

My impression of his comment on the moon landing was that I didn't know what he was trying to say. Maybe it was joke of some kind. But it shouldn't invalidate other things he said unless you come up with a counter claim on the stats.
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I didn't suggest it's flawed to say you have a higher probability if going with the trend. It is flawed to say that Heiken Ashi predicts with 75-80% probability the direction of the move for the next day, when as I've discussed above - it doesn't. The % is wrong because the method he uses to get the % figure is not the same as his claim. Do you understand this or not?

In the beginning he states that there is so much misinformation out there and that he's going to correct some of the biggest lies and he'll tell the truth. Then he misleads with heiken ashi.

I haven't invalidated his claim based on his moon theories, I invalidated his % claim because it is incorrect. And he must know that it is incorrect. That begs the question of why he would knowingly state something that appears correct based on the chart, but isn't.
 
BeginnerJoe said:
I think people on t2w have loosed too much and too often to believe making money is possible.
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BJ,
I can't tell you how wonderful it would be if you dropped your deliberate and continued misspelling. It really does grate and detracts from any serious point you might be making. If there's a valid reason for it (and annoying the likes of me is not a valid reason!), then let's hear it. If it's just lulz then, as I've explained to you already, it really is time you moved on from that.
;)
Tim.
 
timsk said:
BJ,
I can't tell you how wonderful it would be if you dropped your deliberate and continued misspelling. It really does grate and detracts from any serious point you might be making. If there's a valid reason for it (and annoying the likes of me is not a valid reason!), then let's hear it. If it's just lulz then, as I've explained to you already, it really is time you moved on from that.
;)
Tim.
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it greats on my as well.
 
Shakone said:
I didn't suggest it's flawed to say you have a higher probability if going with the trend. It is flawed to say that Heiken Ashi predicts with 75-80% probability the direction of the move for the next day, when as I've discussed above - it doesn't. The % is wrong because the method he uses to get the % figure is not the same as his claim. Do you understand this or not?

In the beginning he states that there is so much misinformation out there and that he's going to correct some of the biggest lies and he'll tell the truth. Then he misleads with heiken ashi.

I haven't invalidated his claim based on his moon theories, I invalidated his % claim because it is incorrect. And he must know that it is incorrect. That begs the question of why he would knowingly state something that appears correct based on the chart, but isn't.
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If you don't have any counter statistics then you don't have a case. I would be interested to see the statistics from a second source. But I consider his claim to be reasonable even if exaggerated. I don't even have a reason to suspect there is exaggeration involved. Trends continue 70-80% of the time sounds quite reasonable.

Anyway, even if his claims are perfect, it'd still take someone considerable effort to use it. Basically very few will be able to deal with the failure mode in any system if not armed with considerable experience. This is what will get people killed, and not whether heiken ashi is right 80% of the time.
 
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timsk said:
:LOL: PB!

As I've said above, IMO there are question marks over his use of HA. However, I concur with everything he says about Renko - which has been my 'go to' chart of choice for many years now.
Tim.
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Isn't that a Japanese female prison?
 
timsk said:
BJ,
I can't tell you how wonderful it would be if you dropped your deliberate and continued misspelling. It really does grate and detracts from any serious point you might be making. If there's a valid reason for it (and annoying the likes of me is not a valid reason!), then let's hear it. If it's just lulz then, as I've explained to you already, it really is time you moved on from that.
;)
Tim.
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You assume I need to be serious, or that I need to be serious to be convincing. You loose !
 
BeginnerJoe said:
If you don't have any counter statistics then you don't have a case. I would be interested to see the statistics. But I consider his claim to be reasonable even if exaggerated.

Anyway, even if his claims are perfect, it'd still take someone considerable effort to use it. Basically very few will be able to deal with the failure mode in any system if not armed with considerable experience. This is what will get people killed.
Click to expand...

Counter statistics: HA predicts direction correctly with 51.2178539% accuracy.

Do I have a case now?
 
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BeginnerJoe said:
If you don't have any counter statistics then you don't have a case.
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BeginnerJoe said:
Trends continue 70-80% of the time sounds quite reasonable.
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..you require stats from the other 'alleged' (in your opinion) side of the argument, but not from your side cos it 'sounds' ok. ha.

that in itself is trolling. i am at an end to understand why so many ppl reply to BJs posts, it 'sounds' like boredom to me but i have no stats to back that up.
 
Shakone said:
Do I have a case now?
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Not yet. Now can we see the chart you derived this stat from ? We can all have a go counting those bars just in case you miscounted.

rsh01: well observed, when bored, people can quite easily miscount.
 
You must have looked at lots of trading videos by now BJ.
Which in your opinion was the best one ?
 
timsk said:
BJ,
I can't tell you how wonderful it would be if you dropped your deliberate and continued misspelling. It really does grate and detracts from any serious point you might be making. If there's a valid reason for it (and annoying the likes of me is not a valid reason!), then let's hear it. If it's just lulz then, as I've explained to you already, it really is time you moved on from that.
;)
Tim.
Click to expand...

Wot wid de Mafiosi of Noo Joysey moidering de pore ole Englo lingo too - it is high time some hero stood up for the beloved language of Shakespeare etc.
 
 
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