Nice one.........
Kensington now 912p making 11% bounce in 3.5 wks. That makes 170% per annum!
Seriously....... the call gets more difficult now as it approaches 920's but break of 900 if maintained..... could now see 950+ ( I've got a stop to protect profits so I don't care any more).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KGN.L&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=b&c=
Hook Shot
Kensington now 912p making 11% bounce in 3.5 wks. That makes 170% per annum!
Seriously....... the call gets more difficult now as it approaches 920's but break of 900 if maintained..... could now see 950+ ( I've got a stop to protect profits so I don't care any more).
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=KGN.L&t=6m&l=off&z=m&q=b&c=
Hook Shot
laythh said:
Laythh - as soon as I saw this post my heart sank......
1) I was lucky to call the upmove and made my money and was stopped out.
2) I kind of lost interest commenting on it since I didn't really know if anyone was that bothered.
3) Kensington was mentioned at 816 and surpassed 950 which I stated as possible ...before almost reaching 1000p.
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Clearly they have problems near term - competition etc and have even lowered estimates for 2007. But that's public knowledge....... my style is - as you may know - to buy out of favour stocks with the potential to recover.......
I think this will recover ....... after all at some price they will be of interest to someone - sorry to be vague but that's the way I play it. Consequently, whilst I may be able to identify potential support on the way down .....my main interest is how solid is the business..... and is this cyclical problem or something more far reaching. On the face of it looks like the former but you can never tell.
Kensington ........ seems to be heavily involved in derivatives..... not unusual for a finance company but for smaller companies it does make me wonder a bit. I cited the interest shown by Goldmans........ well they are still onboard with only fractional selling... and Axa has been increasing their stake. Barclays remain major holders.
Decision time -
For new money I'd wait for the slide to exhaust itself. For holders it depends on your risk tolerance and purchase price etc.....
As the slide takes hold I would imagine some bid rumours will be circulated - but beyond that my stance - since I no longer have a position - would be to wait out the downmove and look for nibbling by institutions who may know something... You rightly point out results in the next few months and this should give us a better read.
Hook Shot
Hope this helps.......
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Kensington has now bounced apprx 10% off the lows of 726p in Nov and with results due later this month it becomes interesting once more. It hit highs at 1200p
As I mentioned in an earlier reply .... there was the possibility of bid rumours if the slide continued and this is happening..... Manufactured ? Who knows ? But Goldman continue to build their stake which I like to see.
The word is Private Equity and investment banks like Lehmans are keen to get into sub prime mortgage market since margins are pretty attractive .......... and with all these players coming into the market not to mention conventional banks it makes it very hard for a relatively small player.
Permira were said to be keen last year ..... but PE have so much money there might be a bit of a feeding frenzy as Kgn is a well established player........ Kgn is 33% below its highs now and may be seen as long term value or a strategic buy.
Chart wise - not my strong point...... : price now is pushing at the old support near £8 ...and could easily be rejected to test the lows of low 700's. Bottom line .... we need to regain 800 min but fundamentals dictate someone might come calling on Kensington sooner rather than later!
!
Yep - I think it's "in play" to quote a line from the film Wall Street.........
As I mentioned in an earlier reply .... there was the possibility of bid rumours if the slide continued and this is happening..... Manufactured ? Who knows ? But Goldman continue to build their stake which I like to see.
The word is Private Equity and investment banks like Lehmans are keen to get into sub prime mortgage market since margins are pretty attractive .......... and with all these players coming into the market not to mention conventional banks it makes it very hard for a relatively small player.
Permira were said to be keen last year ..... but PE have so much money there might be a bit of a feeding frenzy as Kgn is a well established player........ Kgn is 33% below its highs now and may be seen as long term value or a strategic buy.
Chart wise - not my strong point...... : price now is pushing at the old support near £8 ...and could easily be rejected to test the lows of low 700's. Bottom line .... we need to regain 800 min but fundamentals dictate someone might come calling on Kensington sooner rather than later!
!
Yep - I think it's "in play" to quote a line from the film Wall Street.........
fibonelli said:
I take on board what you say but the ownership of Kensington is such that it might be possible for deals to be done off exchange since the bulk of the holders are institutional. This would obscure the stake building and as for reporting change ownership or increases in shareholdings there seem to be ways of postponing the declaration....
But yes... regardless you would expect volume to rise if people know something is imminent!
Lets see what Rothschilds come up with as they are said to be reviewing strategic options for Kensington......Maybe we get something more concrete with the Finals late Jan ?
Hook Shot said:
Since last time we had sharp rally towards 950 before slumping to 550 as more bad news oozed out......... including the fact that a potential buyer has gone elsewhere....
However, it's nicely positioned price wise just where I like 'em... now 600 vs lows of 550.
OLD HIGHS were around 1200!
Is all the bad news priced in ? Who knows but I believe it will make a comeback (fwiw) and will stalk it patiently - as usual!
Every once in a while one of these flea-ridden dogs dies of something but quite often they recover ...... especially a simple business like mortgages - despite the competitiion.
Strategic Review
Some of you may have noted that Kgn are undertaking a strat review... and the possibility is they will be flogged off....
With price so close to basement prices ...570p there's room for improvement ..
I believe the stock is vulnerable to good news... I've started stake building and will see what transpires.
Do your own resesarch
Some of you may have noted that Kgn are undertaking a strat review... and the possibility is they will be flogged off....
With price so close to basement prices ...570p there's room for improvement ..
I believe the stock is vulnerable to good news... I've started stake building and will see what transpires.
Do your own resesarch
