Journal Take 2 - Chart Patterns

[natureboy]

Fast < Slow.. like i said, i'm not taking this one unless it can convince me its likely to go lower by getting under 1.2900 by 10 pips

 

[natureboy]

all right 2m trend confirmed down

 

[natureboy]

these patterns happen all the time. Maybe for some, they wouldn't want to skip trades. I feel a little more cautious than i used to. it can be so easy to lose money, and i'd rather lose opportunity. there's always another trade....

that said i'm about to start shorting again.

 

[natureboy]

..maybe. 1.2890..

 

[natureboy]

So, that 4am time target 335-400 window, coincided with the high pivot... so far.. Time is tough with market analysis. i have yet to find a time based method that works as well as a price based method. Though my friend is working on one. Price makes sense, time is just sort of there, or even ignored, for most traders.

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Stop Loss at 1.2915 for any shorts.. volatility to the upside!

 

[natureboy]

All EURUSD. Haven't spread out to other issues yet..

 

[natureboy]

Gbpchf short setup

 

[natureboy]

countertrend on the 5m, that GBPCHF. At a Daily upper Trendline resistance. Could be just before a Flag breakout on daily, or could drop again. I'm selling short based on momentum with trailing exit.

I really need to implement a 25% open profit lost stop out rule. i tend to have lower efficiency, working on that.

 

[natureboy]

1.5222 Stop Loss, Bear Trend determination level. Below that i'm shorting. I'm using a tighter trailing exit this time, on 2m, which can work also. Volatility recently has been good, but not as good as it used to be. I need to use slightly more aggressive trailing exits.

I do have a max target also for GBPCHF of 1.5190, so this isn't a big pip trade.

 

[natureboy]

I scale in using small % of account, overall position somewhat larger % of acct at risk, aim to keep under 2% risked per trade setup, ideally closer to 1%. Getting in earlier once pattern first plots and confirms on a smaller timeframe/tick chart is better than finding the setup late like i did here.
530 BoE Fisher speaks. Its like deja vu all over again (YB).. I'll need to exit prior to that.

 

[natureboy]

I'm out of GBPCHF at 1.5206. Small profit. It could keep tanking, there timing and Fisher talking, so i'm flat now..

Looking to CAD pairs at next, possibly back to EURUSD also...maybe others..

 

[natureboy]

On EURUSD, time model has 600 and 800 as significant. We'll see if it can breakout of this intraday rectangle.. More Draghi Merkel at 730 also

 

[natureboy]

Here's that little GBPCHF trade

 

[natureboy]

For anyone who appreciates chillin out

Koan - Matariki - YouTube

 

[natureboy]

EURUSD? turning.. In the time window. maybe, shorting below 1.2890

 

[natureboy]

Here are three W patterns giving opportunities to go short near point D of the pattern in this small 515 - 600 swing down inside this consolidation.. very small pip value, may not be worth it with the spread

 

[natureboy]

With the CAD release at 830 EST, i'm also looking at USDCAD. There is a W5 at this 0.9800 level which has been repeatedly tested recently. Could get a move down from here.

 

[natureboy]

Here is a 13 Tick chart of the USDCAD, entry to stop loss for a short could be <10 pips, giving possibly 50 pips downside, giving 5:1 reward to risk or better.



of course, the trade may not work out! Use your own judgement. For my money, its worth selling if price starts breaking down. USD is becoming more overbought basis the strength meter i use, and CAD is showing support. USDCAD is not yet a short trade setup based on the meter.. which lags, of course.

 

[natureboy]

GBPCHF did drop - missing opportunity is a smaller price to pay than losing money.

 

[natureboy]

There are so many ways these patterns can be used. I'm eager to see some quants bring the statistics - time series study goes beyond just prices.

USDCAD looks 'toppy'.. Of course it does to me! And that's the benefit of Objective Patterns - fully drawn by price, plotted by rules via computer - the W5 is there, i don't have to wonder. The trade still may fail, sure, but out of 1,000s of trades i know how to make money with them. And anyone reading this can learn the same thing (in their own way).