natureboy
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Some folks won't need to be told, for everyone else - the reason we use a time window around the news event is because information is not evenly distributed. Some market players get it sooner than the rest of us. When they take a position, it shows up in price action, so we watch price prior to the release, generally -3hrs of the release.
Robert Schiller calls this effect an information cascade, Hank Pruden compares trends to the fashion cycle. Both valid thinking paradigms regarding news event related intraday or swing trends and longer term trends as well.
Robert Schiller calls this effect an information cascade, Hank Pruden compares trends to the fashion cycle. Both valid thinking paradigms regarding news event related intraday or swing trends and longer term trends as well.
natureboy
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i really need to start taking profits at levels i expect reversals from. I tested out my trading rules using the trailing exit, and it works great often enough.. yet, wasn't it shown that if you traded the main swings instead of buy and hold you'd make 1.62 times as much? Something crazy like that.
smell my fear.. or don't. i won't blame you.
smell my fear.. or don't. i won't blame you.
natureboy
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oh, the fake out 
I'm getting confused with the time target bit though. We could see a fast drop into 4am. and then either sideways or up. aw forget trying to figure out/ out-think price. Know a tried and true method that makes money out of 1,000 trades and sizing your trades correctly and consistently is what this game is about. Consistency of purpose - making money - requires certain dedication. and honesty. with yourself, really. I have no idea what this market is going to do next, and i don't have to to make money this month.
--
look how that pin bar, or big lower shadow on the 5m warned of this retracement. totally. and typical.
I'm getting confused with the time target bit though. We could see a fast drop into 4am. and then either sideways or up. aw forget trying to figure out/ out-think price. Know a tried and true method that makes money out of 1,000 trades and sizing your trades correctly and consistently is what this game is about. Consistency of purpose - making money - requires certain dedication. and honesty. with yourself, really. I have no idea what this market is going to do next, and i don't have to to make money this month.--
look how that pin bar, or big lower shadow on the 5m warned of this retracement. totally. and typical.
natureboy
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i've got an alternative trailing exit on a 2m - 1.2917 for that one. this price action just ain't hip. its not trendy, you know what i'm sayin?
if price gets to 1.2914, i'm out. Then...maaaaaybe looking for a long.. we'll see how things react after 4am EST.
if price gets to 1.2914, i'm out. Then...maaaaaybe looking for a long.. we'll see how things react after 4am EST.
natureboy
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there are bearish W5 and W4 patterns now, in a typical retracement Price+Time window here.. The currency strength meter i watch has EURUSD as more of a long trade right now.. so im dubious. I like it best when all factors line up. In an up trend, M patterns can have 80% or higher accuracy. in a down trend W patterns can also have very high accuracy. However, use W patterns in an uptrend and you have very low accuracy - you're fighting the trend. So, using other directional criteria is critical IMO for success trading these patterns.
nevertheless, here are some W patterns right now.
nevertheless, here are some W patterns right now.
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