journal of trader formally known as wasp

[CYOF]

Hi CYOF,

I don't use Grey1's strategy, I have no idea what it is apart from something related to VWAP and MACCI? I use a simple MA crossover strat and support / resistance for exits. Well, maybe a tad more than just that but simple nonetheless.

Apologies wasp,

My mistake - I had also been reading the YM journal and got my posts mixed up in relation to Grey 1's automatic system.

Will have a look at your posts in more detail as I am presently considering testing the CI System (used for FX market) with the YM.

Regards,

 

[firewalker99]

Adapt and succeed....

Nothing stays the same though... Over the last 2 weeks the complete opposite has been happening, I have been doing as my plan and the market has not been spiking through S/R but not printing new candles above and out of the last 20, at least 2/3d's have not broken the S/R and pulled back to the previous S/R.. this is all fine and good but alot of those trades have seen 40, 50 pips to revert to 20 or less! Basically, the complete opposite if 3 months ago and what I stopped myself from doing then, I need to be doing now in order to get the most out of each trade!

A lesson learnt, nothing stays the same forever and no matter how much effort and how much you streamline and how much you apply discipline, nothing lasts forever.... Back to the drawing board to have a good butchers at my exits.....

I haven't been trading long enough to give you any advice on this one, but I am looking forward to the steps you plan to take on handling this one. I'm sure it will be educational for all of us, as has been your journal. But I would suggest that 2 weeks is a very small time period, if you want to re-evaluate your strategy which you've backtested over years (if I remember correctly). As far as you're still having profitable trades, you're still in the front seat. But it's wise to be alert and perhaps the system needs no more than a little adjustments. Just be careful not to try and fit your adjustments to what you've seen the last couple of weeks. Best of luck!

 

[wasp]

exit analysis

DAY 1.

As stated last week, the entries are no the question, its the exits. When I started the journal it was days like these I had the problems with. Maybe I was being hasty from just 2 weeks of chop but better to play it safe and nip problems in the bud asap.

Today as it goes, works out perfectly! So many times last week I was watching 50 retrace to 10 pips yet today it did just what I desire so its 1 to 0 for the trailing stops! :cheesy: Another 2 weeks of close attention before relaxing again though....

The last s/r and exit level is the 000 level... obviously an important one although not 'actual' s/r.

Discipline through adversity wins, today at least!

 

[wasp]

Vanished, like an old oak table...

A hiccup in the longterm view of the markets and PANIC took over! As it goes, since this first post of my impending possible strat change, things have been going swimmingly and I actually fell to that old cliche of worrying and not sticking with discipline through the thin profitable periods.

consequently, absolutely nothing has changed in the strat. The market was just having a tight range period and not best for me but, it did not exceed my worst case scenario so its business as per usual...

One thing that kicked me into gear was a great post by DC2000 which made me think twice and not ruin a good thing....

The Grail of Trading does it exist

YES

The grail of trading is a method of trading the markets that has a high win/loss ratio, is profitable in nearly all market conditions and can be traded by someone who has very little market knowledge

It has nothing to do with psychology and finding oneself

Trading is a business its not personal

diligiance is always advisable and keeping tight reigns worthwhile but, as the saying goes....

"If it ain't broke, don't try and fix it"



Good trading all... :cheesy:

 

[wasp]

Discipline, faith and confidence

Knowing we were in for a quiet week with very little news plus with the thanksgiving holiday, I was dubious to the performance this week and so kept a strict eye on the proceedings....

As the weeks chart shows, discipline to the same strat all the time pays off (until your worst case scenario appears). Markets change and behaviour changes in all markets and consequently, how could a strat be designed to work week in and week out without a hitch? The preverbial 'holy grail'? It can't and it can. It depends on your state of mind really. The more you read the more you can be confused by the 2 contradicting possibilities but it can work out.

As DC said (highlighted in prior post), the holy grail is something that works in all conditions and produces more than it loses with the minimum drawdowns. It is also very simple that even someone with the least market knowledge can produce. I know there are plenty here who would disagree it is and can be that easy, but then you have to take a step back...

I have recently done just so and my whole frame of mind when trading (and in life) changed. Taking trading as it is the relevant one.... So many contradicting thoughts and posts in boards over the net can leave you stuck (well it did me anyway). for example, 'indicators are lagging'. Of course they are as they are an equation based on price events that have happened, BUT, what is 10 pips late if your consistent win rate % is much higher with them? I used to hate being late in trades and missing big moves and taking losses.

After taking a look from a distance I realised that working off a monthly average profit, I had my 'holy grail' allready. I was late in trades, I did miss out and I do take losses, so what! we constantly read about 'there is no holy grail' yet don't use indicators as they are lagging but don't try to pick tops and bottoms. I can look through the weekly currency threads and see 90% of my trades are in before price based trades (ie breakouts) so indicators aren't so bad, and every time I try to get in pre signal, I'm invaruably wrong!

Anyhow, my point being, and the one thing that has turned me from just consistent to consistent and confident is seeing things in a different light and accepting everything that has been thrown at me during the week and KNOWING that, at 5pm on Friday, after losses (business expenses), missing out on pips becuase my signals lag (!!) and missing some good moves I can still make consistent money. Additionally, the fear of the strat backfiring has gne completely, swings and roundabouts... sometimes I make 100 pips, sometimes 300 in a week but never less...

Waffling over, I have learnt alot over the last 4 months and now it just flows like seeing the matrix through the numbers, I don't even think and I know it always works WHATEVER happens. Why? Because the holy grail does exist if you have confidence, discipline and faith. Whether with indicators and support and resistance or any method. Cover every variable and streamline every angle (tightest stops, best averages etc) and happy days. Proof, faith and discipline.

In a nutshell, I think (for me anyhow), after I stopped looking for the holy grail to make Warren buffett jealous, accepted that I don't need to be in for every pip and even with the indicators, I can lag and still make money, and accept the losses and stick 2000% with the discipline of the strat devised, I realised I might never make a million a year, but, I can make plenty more than I will in any job and have the freedom desired. I have nothing more to prove and I can earn a (very healthy) living against the grain of all I've ever read and with the least strain, and that, was the whole point....! From here on in and forver more (or until we become one single world currency!) all I need do is press a button when X,Y or Z happens. Even with this past week (one of the worst in the last 10) I am still muchus happy!

Sometimes I think we need to step back and think about our goals and sometimes accept, a decent wage doing something you enjoy on your own basis, is all thats needed and once consistency is achieved, we should just step back, do it, enjoy it, accept it, and live!

Its taken about 3 years but its worth it now!

Good trading all


PS. Sorry, all a bit deep for a Friday morning I know!!!!

PPS. Apologies, I just realised I can't add and the cross reference added to 2 different figures so changed it in 2nd chart.

 

[Jyde]

Not too deep at all, but very down-to-earth reading. It is always good to get things in (a different) perspective.

Maybe the Holy Grail does not exist (and with lags and misses, it cannot really be considered holy), but finding a, let's call it Slightly Sacred Grail should be good enough for most.
I know it is for me, as I have had - and on many accounts, still have - the same issues as you, as I am sure many, many do.

You might be helping yourself, but it is a nice 'stick and carrot' for others too, I am sure.
Thank you again for taking the time.

All the best...
CJ

 

[dbphoenix]

This is the sort of epiphany that the "healthiest" traders eventually have, one which enables them to achieve a stress-free, long-term, and lucrative career. Unfortunately, one can only reach it by making the journey himself. Being told all these things is little more than another intellectual exercise.

Congratulations.

Db

 

[wasp]

Thats all folks!

Thanks all, GP and on the journal.

Like dbpheonix says, it is a journey best, and only travelled by yourself, as all the reading in the world cannot provide the finer mesh that makes and matches each individuals persona and trading requirements, neccesaties and account for each traders demons and issues.

The feeling at the end of this part of the journey is so much more than relief and accomplishment. It teaches you much more than a way to make money and it is a satisfying feeling in so many ways.

My mindset each morning is very far from the original way of thinking when I first re-entered the foray of trading and its certainly far from the emotion based daily rollercoaster, now its a business, plain and simple, with simplicity and confidence and I 'just do'. Its quite hard to put in to words but its great.

 

[wasp]

For Ian

Here you are Ian, hope it helps.

Any questions fee free to ask.



EDIT: Also you'll note that Thursday evening I was sitting on only 6 pips for the week so far, but the discipline to stick with it till Friday close paid off (esp. with NFP!).

 

[ianp]

Here you are Ian, hope it helps.

Any questions fee free to ask.



EDIT: Also you'll note that Thursday evening I was sitting on only 6 pips for the week so far, but the discipline to stick with it till Friday close paid off (esp. with NFP!).

Hi wasp,

Thanks for taking the time and trouble to post last weeks chart .

It is very helpful.

Cheers
Ian

 

[jm99]

whats this "fake sar" wasp, have you changed your entry rules??

 

[wasp]

whats this "fake sar" wasp, have you changed your entry rules??

Hi jm99,

Its an extra addition for when a signal for an entry appears, and then price reverses in the existing direction, and the signal then vanishes ('fake' signal). When this happens (about 5 times in 2 months) I wait for a new candle in the existing direction and rejoin the old move.

Its an inconvenience but rare, which is why it wasn't showing on the rules.

In fact, due to a couple of PM's highlighting the fact, the rules which are showing on the journal may not be up to date and perfectly in order. If anyone is that interested in the finer rules, PM me.

Changed my mind..... see here re: last paragraph!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/showthread.php?p=310614#post310614

 

[wasp]

For Karmit

Just a couple of random weekly intraday charts from the last few months...

 

[jacinto]

wasp,

NRTR_ATR Stop from metaquotes website

download 4 times with different names

settings on the 4

10, 2
20,1
20,2
28,4


5 charts, 2 on 4 hrs, and 2 on daily, and 1 with 30 min chart on the last couple of days. just an example.

j

 

[jacinto]

5 other minor pairs.

different broker, different time for server, probably different price feed, so indicator may look a bit different

j

 

[wasp]

FAO: egro1egro

With new Osc.

 

[egro1egro]

So, how do you use the oscilator now? What entries can it filter out?
Also, I don't quite understand when you enter. If a candle crosses both MAs from below - do you enter on its close? or when the candle's high is violated by the next candle?

Thanks

 

[wasp]

So, how do you use the oscilator now? What entries can it filter out?
Also, I don't quite understand when you enter. If a candle crosses both MAs from below - do you enter on its close? or when the candle's high is violated by the next candle?

Thanks

Heres a chart with the regular vs the new. Like the MA change to hulls, it smooths it out without increasing the lag.

As for entries, I use the first new candle over the HMA.

 

[egro1egro]

Do you mean: when a new candle appears completely on the opposite side of MA you enter at the candle close?

As for Hull osc, it looks to me like it jumps from -100 to +100 on every "pup". It could probably be made look different depending on how exactly you are goint to filter out the entries. Stochastic in its standard form uses highs and lows of candles to find limits and then shows how close the current loses is to max high/min low.
This oscillator instead takes max high/min low from the hull MA and the close price is taken from MA as well. That is why you see obtuse ends on both sides. Can also play with parameters though...

 

[wasp]

Playing with the parameters at the moment, seeing what it does and then watch it for a while, see if it makes any difference overall.

Re: entries, no when that candle opens... see chart att.