JillyB's Blog

Inside or Outside?

The Dow at the moment is at 11,406, which is right on the high of yesterday. So the question is will it open inside or outside the range?

Either way the trades are very similar and both give an initial small rise between 10-25 points and after this a SELL trade back down to the previous close at 11,381.

If it opens outside the range, there is a chance that this upward movement could continue all day. If it goes up more than 40 points above the open, then there is usually no reversal - but again this will depend on where the open is.

I will update this when I know the open and which trade it is.

EDIT: 14.38
There was a late upsurge which took the open to 11,420. This is a different trade altogether - as it is now well above the high. This is Trade 46.

The last time this happened was 6th December 2005 - which means that I haven't real time tested this trade, so it will be a watch and observe day for me.

If anyone is interested it says that there will be a drop to the high at 11,406 and that this may go below (but doesn't state by how much). There will then be a reversal for a BUY trade to continue the uptrend until the lunchtime consolidation.

I'm not sure how accurate this is and I will be looking to add more detailed information to it from what I observe today.
 
Another 1 Hour Inside Candle Trade

Did anyone catch the Bollinger turn trade at 3pm. I didn't realise there was more news today and was too late in checking it, but my other half got it. He said it went 2 pips beyond, triggering the trade, then dropped back a few points - he entered - and then it shot out of the traps hitting the 20 pip target in no time.

Now I'm cross with him, for not telling me there was news coming up. He also did better on the Non-Farm Payrolls than I did, sticking in it longer to get more pips. As always I got out too soon! Story of my life - However (in my defence) it is the first time I've traded this, so it was very nervy for me. Now I've seen how it reacts I think I will be more confident to stick with it next time. I've seen that it drops steadily for nearly half an hour which has surprised me as I thought it would be a very sudden movement and then go fairly quiet. This means that I don't have to be so quick at taking profits next time and I can let it run a bit more.
 
Trade1

At the moment the Dow is at 11,455 which is below the close of Friday at 11462 (all CMC values). If it opens around this level we will have Trade 1.

This gives me the following:-
BUY up to the high at 11,476 - may possibly go slightly higher than this, so look for an entry point above this for the next trade.
SELL down to the open.

I'll update this after the open.

EDIT: 14.32
Open was at 11,455 so the above stands
I'm in at 11,453/57 for a BUY trade
Stop is at 11,425 - back to the 30 point stop!
I'll update this later.

EDIT:15.15
Out at 11,461/65 for +4
My partner waited until it had dropped. He's into Fib scales (at the moment, tomorrow it could be something different again) and he said it would go down to 11,434 - which it did. He got in at 11,43/39, and out at 11,461/65 which made him a load more profit that me. Still I'm +4 on the day and he's down on the day after a loss on the cable this morning. Guess who's happiest!

The turn on the Dow at just above 11,462 wasn't totally unexpected. This has happened before with this trade and I have a cautionary warning in the text of it to tell me to get out. Last time a doji appeared on the 5 min chart and a +6 profit turned into -46 in no time at all. This was months ago - Thursday 6th April to be precise - and before I got my stop-loss sussed on this as well - hence the major loss. That's also why keeping a good diary/trading journal is essential. It enables you to scan back through the trades to see when, or if, this has happened before.

I have a trading journal (an A5 spiral bound lined notebook) at my side at all times. I have one for the Dow and a separate one for the Cable. In them I write everything, my entry and exit points, what I did wrong (in red), what I did right and things that I need to research/look at. Also just any notes, thoughts etc I have on the trade/index/cable that day. In addition to this, I also have an A4 hardbacked book in which I keep a log of all the Dow trades. The days (in the margin), what trade number they were and how they did. These are then cross-referenced on to a page which has all the trade numbers on and I tally the frequency of each trade on this. This is how I can tell how many times a trade has occurred before and when the last time was.

For me it's essential, I like positive evidence of the system or what I'm trading. I like facts and figures I can refer back to and, in my book, the more notes the better. It's amazing how much I look back at the notebook for information on past trades and also my attitude/feelings come across in the notes - and you can see if (or not) they affected the trade.

EDIT: 16.18

Pat494, dccarrigan, blade - I've added replies to your comments in the comments section
 
Lets hope it doesn't trigger your 30 point stop. It's amazing how often it does, if it gets anywhere near to it. Some blame the SB companies for pushing their values a bit beyond the actual values ! You have an 80% strike rate. At what rate would you risk not having a stop ? Often they stop one out and then climb back into what would have been profit !
 
Pat494 said:
Lets hope it doesn't trigger your 30 point stop. It's amazing how often it does, if it gets anywhere near to it. Some blame the SB companies for pushing their values a bit beyond the actual values ! You have an 80% strike rate. At what rate would you risk not having a stop ? Often they stop one out and then climb back into what would have been profit !
Click to expand...

Hi Pat,

I never actually set the stop loss with the SB company - I put the line on the chart for where it is, and I will trigger it manually if it's hit. The reason is, as you say, I don't want the SB company pushing the price up or down just to hit my stop. So what if it means I have to spend a couple of hours watching the screen - that's hardly a hardship. Laptops do travel out into the garden!

I don't think I would ever trade without a stop loss on the system. I think I might widen it a bit - say to 40 points (as I've been looking at) - if I had 85% or 90% success rate with the system. But 30 points seems to allow it to do what it has to on most days.

Again this is the bonus of keeping a journal/trading diary, it means you have lots of facts and figures to refer back to. Which I find essential.
 
I Must, I Must...... Trust the Trade

Ok, yes I know..Those same old words. Trust the Trade. Either it hits the stop or it hits your target - and what has it just done? It's hit my target!

I was considering getting in again at 11,443 for another up trade. But then my other half said 'Oh no, don't do that, this things going down to 11,390.' That's the last time I listen to him! (At least when it comes to trading matters). Everyone knows that confidence isn't my strong point and a comment like that doesn't do it any good.

So I'm now sitting here in a bad mood, because I listened to someone else instead of myself and I've let a good 30 points go to waste. I wouldn't care if this was the only time, but the number of times I get out too early has to be seen to be believed. Never the less I am making money at this trading lark - just not as much as I could be.

Now we have one part of the trade fulfilled. I'll just have to wait and see if the second part happens.

EDIT:17.46
I got in for the SELL part of the trade at 11,482/86 and chickened out during the consolidation at 11,371/75 for 7 points. Now its dropped right down and I could have been in there for another 10 points - same old story.

Again I was looking for another entry point. It gave me 11,478, but I wanted 11,480 for another sell trade, so this time I missed out. It's on it's way back to the open now so it looks like another winning day for the system.

Assuming the open at 11,455 and the high at 11,476. Straight trades between these would give 17 points on the BUY trade and 17 points on the SELL trade. This isn't allowing for any better entry or exit points. Therefore the total for the day is 34 points.

This gives us a total of 72 trades now; 58 winning and 14 losing.
Winning trades (58) = 1828 points
Losing trades (14) = 353 points
Nett points = 1475

58 winning trades out of a total of 72 trades gives a win ration of 80.55%
 
The biggest mistake you can make is to worry about how much more you could have made if you'd stayed in a winning trade! You made a profit right? Your winning percentage is phenominal! I sometimes stay to long and blow a lot of profit on a super trade. You should be extremely proud of your record, which I have a feeling you must be anyway!

Oh, and by the way, just because you don't listen to others about your trades, doesn't mean you shouldn't listen closely on other suggestions!
 
I know how you feel. I used to trade with 2 others chatting via msn. If one "bottled" the trade, we would all tend to ignore the signal. Even when confident its easy to take notice of others.
 
Taken a Few Days Off - But I'm Back Now

Hi Everyone,

Well I'm back now. I took a few days off at the end of last week to get away after losing our dog Harvey. We went to Paul's sisters in France for a few relaxing days and I think the break did us both good. We travelled down to Carnac and did a tour of the alignments and megaliths there, before popping down to Quiberon for a spot of sunbathing. The weather was fantastic - yesterday we were at Mont St Michel, and the temperature was over 30 degrees. Today we are home and it's 20 degress, thundering and raining heavily - what a contrast.

So anyway the trading days that were missed went as follows.

Wednesday 6th September - Trade 67 - New Trade
Thursday 7th September - Trade 50 - 25 points on Sell trade - 25 points on BUY trade = TOTAL 50 points
Friday 8th September - Trade 10 - 32 points on BUY trade

Today - Trade 24 - SELL to low at 11343 (9 points) BUY to open (9 points TOTAL = 18 points.

In total that gives 5 winning trades out of 5 with 100 points made. So the total for the system now looks like this.

77 Trades in total with 63 winning trades and 14 losing trades
Winning trades (63) = 1928 points
Losing trades (14) = 353 points
Nett points = 1575

63 Winning trades out of a total of 77 trades gives a win ratio of 81.8%

Hopefully I should be back tomorrow with my usual posts just before the open.
 
Someone make it move before the open!

The Dow is currently smack on the close of last night at 11,390! Which isn't any good for my trading plan as it gives a NO TRADE.

The likelihood of it staying there until the open though is remote, so lets assume it will open just above this at say 11,394 - now we have a trade and this is Trade 6.

This would give me a BUY up to the high of yesterday at 11,416 and possibly on to 11,420-430 (use a trailing stop for this last section).
Then look for a SELL trade to be entered above the high with the target back down at the open.

I've just checked back on the Dow and it's now at 11,400 - which would give me the dreaded Trade 58 - which is no good either as it's my impossible trade!

It seems I will have to wait until 2.30pm today to be sure of what's happening.

EDIT:14.43
Open = 11,405 which gives Trade 58 and therefore a standaside day.
 
Trade 1 Today

At the moment the Dow is at 11,473, which looks as if it will be Trade 1.

This gives me BUY up to the close at 11,492 and possibly on to the high at 11,510 (use a trailing stop for this).

SELL (hopefully above the high - if not between close and high) to go back down to the open

EDIT: 15.41
Todays open was at 11,469
Not a particularly good entry today for me at 11,471/75 and out at 11,492 for 17 points.

Sell entry at 11,497/501 - but chickened out at 11,485/89 for 8 points

Still that's 25 points for the day and just over an hours work!

I'll update for the system targets a bit later.
 
You win some - You lose some

And I was doing so well today. I was up 25 points on the day only to hand it all back and then some! I'm now down 7 on the day and I'm not best pleased.

As far as my trading plan is concerned - we have one winning and one losing trade.

The first trade - BUY up to the close at 11,492 and on to the high at 11,510 was correct and would have netted (assuming these entry and exit points) 37 points.

The second (reverse trade) - SELL back down to the open at 11,469 just didn't happen and a stop loss of 32 points is being assumed here.

This still gives a positive nett outcome for the day of 5 points.

This now gives me the following
79 Trades in Total - 64 winning and 15 losing trades
Winning trades (64) = 1965 points
Losing trades (15) = 385 points
Nett points = 1580

64 Winning trades out of a total of 79 trades = 81% win rate
 
More of the Same

At the moment the Dow is at 11,508 and we have the same trade as yesterday - Trade 1

BUY up to the close at 11,536 and possibly on to 11,548 (use a trailing stop to lock in profits on this last part). It should at least get up to 11,531 - as a minimum.

SELL above 11,536 back down to the open.
 
What a Long Day!

It has just hit the close at 11,536 after a slightly hair-raising start to the day. Again this was one of those days where you had to set your 30 point stop loss and your target exit and let it do what it had to do. The stop was never hit (though with a bit of patience a better entry point could have been achieved) and it was slow to move up to the exit, but it got there in the end.

The trade says that if it is does not go higher than the previous close by 7pm, then there will be no reversal - as the target of this reversal would be the close.

So today we have one winning trade for 21 points

The statistics are now as follows

80 Trades in Total with 65 winning trades and 15 losing.
Winning trades (65) = 1986 points
Losing trades (15) = 385 points
Nett points = 1601

65 Winning trades out of 80 in total gives a win ratio of 81.25%
 
Unsure Trade

The Dow rushed up on the CPI news and is currently at 11,595 - 50 points above yesterdays high and 75 points above yesterdays close.

This gives me Trade 59 - which does say that it will go up to around 11,627 - incidently this is the 161.8% Fib extension of the recent rises. However I'm cautious about this. My trading plan has never had such a large close to open difference and I don't know how this will affect it.

Usually a change in the Dows action happens around 35 to 40 points above the close, and it acts differently depending on how far away from the close it is. But this is double my usual number, so I'm just not sure.

Sorry folks
 
Trade 7

Today the Dow is at 11,542 at the moment, so if it opens at this we will have Trade 7

This gives me the following

BUY up to 11,551 and lock in profit, then hold until around 5-6pm.

If it reaches above the previous high at 11,608 by this time, look for a SELL trade back down to the high at 11,608.
 
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