It's All About The Pips...

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raulin said:
Watching u/j closely , not only for jpy pairs direction but looking for equities direction. U/J stalled even before 97.20, before 96.15 even and stalled at wr1 pivot at 95.68. If you view JPY as number one risk aversion currency as I do , you should be selling JPY against everything, in risk appetite mode . You are not , not against USD/JPY and not against CAD/JPY
Click to expand...

In the past the carry trade or borrowing JPY against low rates and buying other currencies against higher interest rates was a great way to make a good income specialy because of the extra percentage made because the bought currency went up after big demand. Ad to that investments in the stockmarkets and you could have end up with a 30% or more investment over the year.

But things are changing fast and deflation has hit all over the world. Differences in interest rates between countries are getting smaller and could change what was common.

Below is a graph of real interest rates at present. Just something to think about.
 

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carry trade

ekanters said:
In the past the carry trade or borrowing JPY against low rates and buying other currencies against higher interest rates was a great way to make a good income specialy because of the extra percentage made because the bought currency went up after big demand. Ad to that investments in the stockmarkets and you could have end up with a 30% or more investment over the year.

But things are changing fast and deflation has hit all over the world. Differences in interest rates between countries are getting smaller and could change what was common.

Below is a graph of real interest rates at present. Just something to think about.
Click to expand...

If you trade currencies you can see the biggest appreciating pair has been AUD and NZD since March. Coincident with equities rally AUD has appreciated against USD from 62 to 83 and looking to reach 85. Now, you can say this is because of commodities rally but correct me if i wrong but NZD does not export copper so why buy NZD ?..Well it could be because it has an interest rate of 3% that is still a significant differential vs JPY etc. You could also say this is because these govt have not been indulging in quantitative easing but the last NZD bank statement was bearish as hell and they did not rule out quantitative easing yet it is still bullish ..so again I am watching U/J and we still do have a carry trade (not as big )and a commodities rally
 
raulin said:
If you trade currencies you can see the biggest appreciating pair has been AUD and NZD since March. Coincident with equities rally AUD has appreciated against USD from 62 to 83 and looking to reach 85. Now, you can say this is because of commodities rally but correct me if i wrong but NZD does not export copper so why buy NZD ?..Well it could be because it has an interest rate of 3% that is still a significant differential vs JPY etc. You could also say this is because these govt have not been indulging in quantitative easing but the last NZD bank statement was bearish as hell and they did not rule out quantitative easing yet it is still bullish ..so again I am watching U/J and we still do have a carry trade (not as big )and a commodities rally
Click to expand...

I was refering to your JPY statement.

Erik
 
nice chart

good chart henk makes alot of sence do you trade these patterns.going to do abit of back testing.more tools for the tool box(y)
 
good stuff

thanks guys,great link ,what my charts were telling me about yens has been given a boost.also the way im looking at cable this month,blew me away low volumes mid month,never looked at it like that,thanks.(y)getting back to topic 500 club,made loads of pips but been in loads of trades,more than most,i trade longer with my main method,but most of my entries have been 15m which i would never look at,just noise i would say,but with this strat,new ball game,im looking at 1h set up its got everything on it,and i have proved to myself it works,very well,the way i take profits and entries might differ, well i know it does.im new to this strat,but not new to the markets so might give me a bit of a edge,not being cocky just trying to say if anyone new is not having such a good time,thats the reason.what i wont do is enter at the wrong price,if its 50 entry dont take 58,wait it will come back and enter at a better price if it goes back to 47 and your indies are intact enter,if it goes wrong you lose less,if it goes right you gain more,mm no sweat.stoped thinking too,if that makes sence.and what a laugh.dan james, zak good stuff.and the rest of team:clap::clap:
 
Hey all,

I did a small analysis yesterday on usd/jpy, please note that the probability of august being a bad month for the jpy is greater when the trend of usd/jpy is down. In an uptrend you would see less buying pressure or sometimes even a red monthly candle, but this is less likely than in a downtrend. Luckily the charts tell us there's jpy strength coming in, so no worries :).

Have to thank Rav700 for giving me the pdf, he learned me about seasonality.

Greets,

Henk

P.s August 11th, fx500 meeting, what time and place? :p
 
For me standard and poors looking heavy may pull back to 966 giving usd/jpy weakness drop below 94 crucial ..safer to wait and not prejudge. Need to break 97 on the upside for usd/jpy strength
 
Good morning

Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 in the UK and ISM Manufacturing in the States at 3.00pm are key today.

I saw on my thread and emails that some of you took CABLE long from Fridays support level on the 4hr 20ma. Well done and well observed!

USD Index was key on Friday and when it broke the WP at 78.88 everything kicked off.

Today we resume with USD in its continuous downtrend. USDX is below the DP and WP so hard to see where the retracements will come until these levels are broken on the upside. Looking at the USDX chart nothing suggests for me to go long of the USD this morning.

CABLE
• 4hr chart is overbought so we need retracements..
• Technically (even though USDX does not confirm this as yet) we need a pullback to the old breakout level at 1.6586 region
• As mentioned on Friday its not worth trying to short the strongest currency out there so again for those who are patient wait for the pullback before buying off support.

EURUSD
• With weak USD across the board we are best to remain on the upside for EURUSD.
• Yes EURGBP is weak with GBP the being the power house but USD is certainly the weakest of the lot for now.
• Technically would like to see a pullback towards the 4hr 20ma at 1.4180 region.

USDJPY
• A strong support line from the 13 July.
• Technically still like UJ lower in its downward channel.
• MP is 1st support at 94.48 and then key support at 94.00 for confirmation that UJ will make its move down towards MS1 at 92.00 region.

Verdict
• Need retracements this morning.
• Look for pullbacks to the support levels in EURUSD and GBPUSD before further strength against the USD.
• UJ looks good through these support levels.
 
speeding train

the charts never lie,you dont stand infront of a speeding train.thanks guys for showing the way.dan dont change a thing.you cannot beat the market,you trade what the market gives you.im humble:-0
 
bangkokgee said:
the charts never lie,you dont stand infront of a speeding train.thanks guys for showing the way.dan dont change a thing.you cannot beat the market,you trade what the market gives you.im humble:-0
Click to expand...

Jumped off the speeding cable car taking 87 pips. More of the same tomorrow, thank you.:)
 
NZD USD grr entered a sell on the H4, nice pin formed on the 61.8 fibo level aswell as major resistance, we'll see how it goes :(
 
Good morning all

CABLE at 1.7000 and Wall St eyeing up 9,500!!!

As we keep saying on a daily basis stay with the trend and do not fight this market no matter what you might think. The USD is weak and will remain that way until the charts suggest otherwise.

The USDX is again setup below the DP and below the 60min 20ma suggesting further weakness to come. However any break back above 77.81 would suggest a pullback for the USD. Keep an eye on this as a break above the DP would suggest the currencies would have a pullback below their respective DPs.

CABLE
• The trend is clearly up but trading below a big psychological level such as 1.7000 will make buyers nervous.
• There is no silver cross looming with the trend here so potential for a low risk trade is limited.
• The only silver cross potential ahead is a break below the DP to retest the 4hr 20ma.
• The trend is strongly up in CABLE so as long as it holds the DP, we will only be looking for longs.
• Any break of the DP at 1.6870 should see a pullback to the 4hr 20ma region.

EURUSD
• A strong uptrend with weak USD across the board.
• The 60min 20ma and DP are holding at present so only long plays for now until the DP is broken.
• Key resistance is the 15min 50ma so similar to yesterday we should be patient until we see a break back above this 50MA for a move higher.
• Any break below the DP at 1.4353 (and USDX above DP) should see a pullback to the 4hr 20ma at DS1.

USDCHF
• The USD could still go both ways this am
• If the USD remains weak and USDCHF remains below the DP watch the break of the 15min 50ma to the downside
• However as it stands the currency has a wide gap from the DP to DR1 on the upside but please remember this is against the trend so limit your risk.

Verdict
• No potential silver crosses with the trend are in view
• Thoughts of pullbacks cross my mind but not until the DPs are broken.
• Only attack the currencies with the trend if 1) the USDX weakens and 2) the respective 15min 50ma´s are broken with the trend.
 
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