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hornblower
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what a pity all the people who used to post ,
have now disappeared into a trading room somewhere
I miss all the input from them
kind regards
hornblower
have now disappeared into a trading room somewhere
I miss all the input from them
kind regards
hornblower
ekanters
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Not in a room but sleeping on my desk. In the room at least there will be some funny remarks by the pimp.
Erik
It's good to get lots of input and opinions on pairs but it can confuse your trading somewhat always best to learn how to trade by yourself and be consistent.
Been short CHFJPY 80 taken on that. Quite an obvious trade along with a EURJPY trade for 100.
At the moment I'm waiting too.BUY GBP/USD @ 1.6890 stop@ 1.6850 by
9 am
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SPFUTs Creeping back to 1000 very nervous around this level, although the early risk aversion with JPY buying has now seen a 100% retracement. Stocks in general have struggled today with the FTSE remaining flat on the day. Im expecting retracements back to this mornings levels on both the Dow and the SPFUT.
danarm
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The madness continues I don't think I can remember a market like it.The reality is that the same accounts that were falling over themselvesto sell last year and at the beginning of 2009 are now knocking everyone over to find some bonds and some yield. I continue to hear that newissues in HG world are flying out the door quicker than you can say "newissue the name is X and the guidance is Y". We know its going to endin tears what we don't know is when and what is the trigger? I stillthink it's the central banks exit strategy and at some stage they aregoing to have to turn off the taps to the investment banks withoutupsetting mortgage holders and the all important equity markets. All Ido know is that with every bail out whether it be the banks, medicalinsurance, cash for clunkers or anything else, at some stage it needs tobe paid for. The market is now fully pricing in a V shaped recovery iegrowth to return to what it was 2 years ago and with that house pricesetc. Well call me stupid but how is that possibly going to happenbearing in mind the governments increased debt burden, Northern Rock andfriends are no longer dumb enough to lend honest borrowers 125%mortgages on a self cert basis and contrary to the markets main streetare still losing their jobs and not spending on their credit cardsanymore. I'll be honest the market is reminiscent of my teenage discoyears. There are a load of people on the dance floor freaking out to atune I don't recognise, every now and then I step on the edge of it do afew basic moves, feel slightly self conscious because I don't know thetune and step off it continuing to watch the freaks on it. That if youhaven't guessed is my trading style at the moment. I am just reallyscared the music will stop and the lights will be turned on and whoknows what I will be left with! I don't think there is any point sayingthis is a big week for data as the market ignores bad data and ralliesat the good You carry on dancing I'll stand at the bar with a beertapping my feet!
ekanters
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I love this one I realy do but I think I am one of the few. The rest is sweatting on the floor untill you call aloud fire.
Its like a vulcano, everybody knows it will blow but still they love the fantasy Island.
Erik
Trying to stay a Bear
bangkokgee
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wrong end of the stick
still in now.so dont trade against a strong trade was my speeding train comment,so i was jumping off at the wrong stop,hoped you jumped back on too.was a good day for me as i was in the cad/yen and pocketed 120 on that too.which i posted live in the room only 6 pips up from my entry.
my post was,nt aimed at you,it was to a chat i had with dan,i closed my cable from friday 210 pips up,waited for it to retrace which it only did about 70 pips,i took 45 pips from that,waited untill it went back up to were i exited,80 and jumped on again at 82,Jumped off the speeding cable car taking 87 pips. More of the same tomorrow, thank you.
still in now.so dont trade against a strong trade was my speeding train comment,so i was jumping off at the wrong stop,hoped you jumped back on too.was a good day for me as i was in the cad/yen and pocketed 120 on that too.which i posted live in the room only 6 pips up from my entry.
Tenapenny
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my post was,nt aimed at you,it was to a chat i had with dan,i closed my cable from friday 210 pips up,waited for it to retrace which it only did about 70 pips,i took 45 pips from that,waited untill it went back up to were i exited,80 and jumped on again at 82,
still in now.so dont trade against a strong trade was my speeding train comment,so i was jumping off at the wrong stop,hoped you jumped back on too.was a good day for me as i was in the cad/yen and pocketed 120 on that too.which i posted live in the room only 6 pips up from my entry.
No problem. It was just a personal statement.
danarm
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Morning all
Surely golf was more interesting than trading yesterday!!!
CABLE and EURUSD were flat as a pancake and the only real excitement was the silver crosses with the trend in EURJPY and GBPJPY later on in the afternoon. I do hope a few of you took them.
USDJPY as described in the video yesterday bounced off the MP with passion. A big reminder to never sell or buy into him as you will always come off second best.
So we are in search of our elusive silver crosses with the trend. Let’s see what this morning brings and not be tempted into high risk plays.
USDX has the DP below the price at present but is heavily boxed in with the 60min 20ma just above. Look for a solid 123 for a move off support around the 77.87 level and golden cross of the 60min MA’s.
CABLE
• CABLE hasn’t moved from yesterday, with key resistance at 1.7000 and support around the 1.6885 region.
• The difference today brings is that the DP is above us rather than below us and CABLE looks all set for a move lower
• However selling the strongest currency against the 4 hour trend can sometimes be a pickle as we know it but it certainly needs a pullback.
• The 84 CCI (4hr trend) is still green and the USD isn’t confirmed as yet as being back in an uptrend.
• Following our strict rules we wouldn’t touch CABLE short but wait for the retracement to happen and then jump back in for a long trade again with the Silver Crosses.
• Technically the old break level in CABLE was 1.6585 & 1.6745.
• Keep an eye on these levels, as they will offer small amounts of support for those looking at the retracement plays.
• For those looking for an entry short should now wait for the bounce off the 60min 50ma and then the pullback to sell below the 60min 20ma. Remember to use the 15min trigger…
• For those that want to be patient, simply wait until the silver crosses (with the trend) come back into contention.
Surely golf was more interesting than trading yesterday!!!
CABLE and EURUSD were flat as a pancake and the only real excitement was the silver crosses with the trend in EURJPY and GBPJPY later on in the afternoon. I do hope a few of you took them.
USDJPY as described in the video yesterday bounced off the MP with passion. A big reminder to never sell or buy into him as you will always come off second best.
So we are in search of our elusive silver crosses with the trend. Let’s see what this morning brings and not be tempted into high risk plays.
USDX has the DP below the price at present but is heavily boxed in with the 60min 20ma just above. Look for a solid 123 for a move off support around the 77.87 level and golden cross of the 60min MA’s.
CABLE
• CABLE hasn’t moved from yesterday, with key resistance at 1.7000 and support around the 1.6885 region.
• The difference today brings is that the DP is above us rather than below us and CABLE looks all set for a move lower
• However selling the strongest currency against the 4 hour trend can sometimes be a pickle as we know it but it certainly needs a pullback.
• The 84 CCI (4hr trend) is still green and the USD isn’t confirmed as yet as being back in an uptrend.
• Following our strict rules we wouldn’t touch CABLE short but wait for the retracement to happen and then jump back in for a long trade again with the Silver Crosses.
• Technically the old break level in CABLE was 1.6585 & 1.6745.
• Keep an eye on these levels, as they will offer small amounts of support for those looking at the retracement plays.
• For those looking for an entry short should now wait for the bounce off the 60min 50ma and then the pullback to sell below the 60min 20ma. Remember to use the 15min trigger…
• For those that want to be patient, simply wait until the silver crosses (with the trend) come back into contention.
danarm
Experienced member
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GBPCHF -
4 HOURLY - UPTREND
1 HOURLY - EARLY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE REVERSAL with 1 hourly Golden CrossCurrently Boxed between the 60 minute 20 Ma and the 4 hourly 20 MA.
Has formed a nice channel over night and will be looking for a break of the DP at 1.7970 for a move to the previous highs at 1.8030
Or a break of the 4 hourly 20 MA at 1.7920. A break through the 4 hourly 20 MA could see a move back towards 1.7870 then further to WP at 1.7800
4 HOURLY - UPTREND
1 HOURLY - EARLY SIGNS OF POSSIBLE REVERSAL with 1 hourly Golden CrossCurrently Boxed between the 60 minute 20 Ma and the 4 hourly 20 MA.
Has formed a nice channel over night and will be looking for a break of the DP at 1.7970 for a move to the previous highs at 1.8030
Or a break of the 4 hourly 20 MA at 1.7920. A break through the 4 hourly 20 MA could see a move back towards 1.7870 then further to WP at 1.7800
danarm
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Well as I was tucking into my chicken tikka it looked as though it was
going to be another crazy up/tighter day. A few pompadours and a nan
bread later and alas we saw some selling. Very unusually Turkey sold
off first and then the corps and stocks followed suit. Is it the
beginning of the end, in my view no not at all. It is just a little
profit taking ahead of Friday’s NFP especially as the ADP survey
disappointed. I am now convinced that until we see the central banks
taps turned off the market will continue to have a buy on dips mentality
with fundamentals almost irrelevant (ie like 2006 and 2007). I was
going to waffle on about my theory as to why we are rallying. The short
story is as follows its all been driven by various stimulus which is
great, the key to a V shaped recovery is to return to ways of old. ie
happy to pay full whack for a car whether or not we have a clunker to
trade or not, for a hotel room in Dubai, for a 2 bedroom apartment in
Leeds etc. etc. If that’s the case then the V recovery merchants can
give me the bird. I still say the world isn’t as bad as it was 9
months ago however I still say the world has changed forever and whether
you like it or not debt in whatever form (consumer, corporate or
government) is either repaid or defaulted on either way its not good for
high growth. On that note I am off to order a new car and book that
holiday to Dubai.
Mr P…….
going to be another crazy up/tighter day. A few pompadours and a nan
bread later and alas we saw some selling. Very unusually Turkey sold
off first and then the corps and stocks followed suit. Is it the
beginning of the end, in my view no not at all. It is just a little
profit taking ahead of Friday’s NFP especially as the ADP survey
disappointed. I am now convinced that until we see the central banks
taps turned off the market will continue to have a buy on dips mentality
with fundamentals almost irrelevant (ie like 2006 and 2007). I was
going to waffle on about my theory as to why we are rallying. The short
story is as follows its all been driven by various stimulus which is
great, the key to a V shaped recovery is to return to ways of old. ie
happy to pay full whack for a car whether or not we have a clunker to
trade or not, for a hotel room in Dubai, for a 2 bedroom apartment in
Leeds etc. etc. If that’s the case then the V recovery merchants can
give me the bird. I still say the world isn’t as bad as it was 9
months ago however I still say the world has changed forever and whether
you like it or not debt in whatever form (consumer, corporate or
government) is either repaid or defaulted on either way its not good for
high growth. On that note I am off to order a new car and book that
holiday to Dubai.
Mr P…….
danarm
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Good morning
Not the easiest weeks to be honest, with Non Farm Employment Change ahead of us on Friday. USD currencies have been very stagnant since Monday with little room for safe trades, as pullbacks are always on our minds.
Zak will be joining us each day (for around 15mins) talking about his best setup and levels to work off.
It’s the last day for me, as I will be flying back to London tomorrow. James, Zak & Hemal will be looking after you all (for the next 10 days), which gives you all a break from me!!!
Its interest rate day in GBP and EUR and we are not expecting any drastic changes from 0.50% and 1.00% respectively.
CABLE
• Key support now at 1.6890 (last 48 hours) and key resistance at yesterdays high at 1.7041.
• 4 hour chart suggests no trade unless you buy off support and sell at resistance.
• Otherwise we wait for the breaks of these levels.
• The 15min chart does however suggest a triple top below the key resistance from yesterday high. A break through support does suggest GBP could weaken a little 1st thing today against the USD.
• The previous 15min trend reversal is at 1.6955 so a break through here would be below the DP and 60min 20ma suggesting a pullback towards the DS1 level (1.6910) ahead of the major support at 1.6890.
EURUSD
• Horrible looking chart to be honest (60min & 4hr)
• Can’t trade for me at present as key support (1.4352) below and key resistance (1.4446) above.
• Simply buy off support and sell at resistance and wait for the breaks.
Verdict
• USDJPY boxed in,
• USD as a whole confused since Tuesday but weak
• GBP bid but needs a little pullback
• EUR bid but again needs a little pullback
• Our rules suggest we trade with the trend so I see nothing at present that I want to through a lot of cash at. Been like that most of the week!
Not the easiest weeks to be honest, with Non Farm Employment Change ahead of us on Friday. USD currencies have been very stagnant since Monday with little room for safe trades, as pullbacks are always on our minds.
Zak will be joining us each day (for around 15mins) talking about his best setup and levels to work off.
It’s the last day for me, as I will be flying back to London tomorrow. James, Zak & Hemal will be looking after you all (for the next 10 days), which gives you all a break from me!!!
Its interest rate day in GBP and EUR and we are not expecting any drastic changes from 0.50% and 1.00% respectively.
CABLE
• Key support now at 1.6890 (last 48 hours) and key resistance at yesterdays high at 1.7041.
• 4 hour chart suggests no trade unless you buy off support and sell at resistance.
• Otherwise we wait for the breaks of these levels.
• The 15min chart does however suggest a triple top below the key resistance from yesterday high. A break through support does suggest GBP could weaken a little 1st thing today against the USD.
• The previous 15min trend reversal is at 1.6955 so a break through here would be below the DP and 60min 20ma suggesting a pullback towards the DS1 level (1.6910) ahead of the major support at 1.6890.
EURUSD
• Horrible looking chart to be honest (60min & 4hr)
• Can’t trade for me at present as key support (1.4352) below and key resistance (1.4446) above.
• Simply buy off support and sell at resistance and wait for the breaks.
Verdict
• USDJPY boxed in,
• USD as a whole confused since Tuesday but weak
• GBP bid but needs a little pullback
• EUR bid but again needs a little pullback
• Our rules suggest we trade with the trend so I see nothing at present that I want to through a lot of cash at. Been like that most of the week!
danarm
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The madness for now seems to have passed. The last couple of sessionswe have seen a decent bunch of profit taking across the desk although atthe moment this has not been reflected by spread moves, unchanged on theday. No exciting news in my world although it is worth noting that thelast few new issues in EM haven't been the no brainer everyone thoughtthey would. The best example being the new Petronas deal that at onestage was doing an impression of a Chinese A share IPO with an 18bn bookbut ended up more like a badly behaved Labrador. Its worth noting thatthe BOE continue to print money despite the alleged green shootseverywhere. This is bad news as it means they still fear that moneysupply is still on the decline despite the printing presses working overtime. Of course the good news is the more money they print the higherthe markets will rally and the bigger the bubble will get as the money,instead of being passed onto small business's, consumers etc ends up instocks and corporate bonds. Clients still seem to have cash so dips atthe moment remain a buying opportunity. Although I think data islargely irrelevant at the moment (QE and liquidity is more important)the market will chill out tomorrow morning in anticipation of NFP.
Hi All,
I've read through most of this thread and found it quite interesting. It has left me wondering how many of you guy make the 50pips or more a day consistently? I don't hear anyone here talk about their losing days, which must happen, and what are your average number of trades per day?
Keep up the good work.
I've read through most of this thread and found it quite interesting. It has left me wondering how many of you guy make the 50pips or more a day consistently? I don't hear anyone here talk about their losing days, which must happen, and what are your average number of trades per day?
Keep up the good work.
bangkokgee
Active member
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hi
read a few posts and found it interesting,and was wondering why u dont buy one of them robots:whistling make money while you sleepshame on you
read a few posts and found it interesting,
and was wondering why u dont buy one of them robots:whistling make money while you sleepshame on youHenryatkin
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Grimesd
Hi All,
I've read through most of this thread and found it quite interesting. It has left me wondering how many of you guy make the 50pips or more a day consistently? I don't hear anyone here talk about their losing days, which must happen, and what are your average number of trades per day?
.....................................................................................................................
grime you ask the wrong question. You should be asking what records of trades posters are keeping. Losing days/winning days are irrelevant. In fact intraday trading losing days should be a rare event. I don't follow Danarms strategy because I already had a decent enough one before I started following this excellent thread. Losing days will only occure if you are trend following whilst the market ranges. If you develope a strategy that incorporates both trend and overbought/oversold you should never have a losing day. What you will have is winning trades and losing trades. You should keep a daily trading sheet detailing each trade with the open price/time, closing price/time, P/L, and remarks about trade type as in overbought/oversold or trend following. At the end of the day you have a record of winning number of trades and losing numbers. You have winning pips and losing pips. You can now calculate cumulative pips per winning trade and pips per losing trade to give you a Win: Lose Ratio(trades) and risk: reward (pips). Then you can book in your daily average pips. I am a very conservative trader and stick to just one instrument with low money management risk but I get Win: Lose (trades) ratio 76%. Risk: reward (pips) 1: 4.3 and an average daily 34 pips. This figure may seem low but I only trade between 08:00 and mid day. Even so it gives around 8000 pips per year so I'm not complaining. Your last question 'how many trades per day' depends on what timeframe you use (I'm a 1 minute/100 tick chart man) what the market offers - thats out of the hands of the trader so its pointless in bothering with it. Until I kept records as above I could never gain the confidence to trade properly or consistantly. You can't have faith in a strategy without having the figures to back it up.
Hi All,
I've read through most of this thread and found it quite interesting. It has left me wondering how many of you guy make the 50pips or more a day consistently? I don't hear anyone here talk about their losing days, which must happen, and what are your average number of trades per day?
.....................................................................................................................
grime you ask the wrong question. You should be asking what records of trades posters are keeping. Losing days/winning days are irrelevant. In fact intraday trading losing days should be a rare event. I don't follow Danarms strategy because I already had a decent enough one before I started following this excellent thread. Losing days will only occure if you are trend following whilst the market ranges. If you develope a strategy that incorporates both trend and overbought/oversold you should never have a losing day. What you will have is winning trades and losing trades. You should keep a daily trading sheet detailing each trade with the open price/time, closing price/time, P/L, and remarks about trade type as in overbought/oversold or trend following. At the end of the day you have a record of winning number of trades and losing numbers. You have winning pips and losing pips. You can now calculate cumulative pips per winning trade and pips per losing trade to give you a Win: Lose Ratio(trades) and risk: reward (pips). Then you can book in your daily average pips. I am a very conservative trader and stick to just one instrument with low money management risk but I get Win: Lose (trades) ratio 76%. Risk: reward (pips) 1: 4.3 and an average daily 34 pips. This figure may seem low but I only trade between 08:00 and mid day. Even so it gives around 8000 pips per year so I'm not complaining. Your last question 'how many trades per day' depends on what timeframe you use (I'm a 1 minute/100 tick chart man) what the market offers - thats out of the hands of the trader so its pointless in bothering with it. Until I kept records as above I could never gain the confidence to trade properly or consistantly. You can't have faith in a strategy without having the figures to back it up.
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