It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

Afernoon all

After a stressful morning and thinking i was going mad, CABLE, EURUSD, GOLD and USDCHF finally moved the way i wanted. In the last 30mins OIL setup for a perfect play south...Didnt take it but thats teh way it goes.

I nailed CABLE & EURUSD on the cross of the MA´s...

CABLE dropped through the 15min 20ma and as it popped back up through the pivot i went short at 1.5735 for a lovely 95 pips on the downside to 1.5640.

EURUSD was setup in a different format with a larger gap back down to the pivot but after such a strong morning the momentum was soon to weaken. As the price fell through the 15min 20ma the small retracement came and went short at 1.2880 with a stop above the R1 at 2.30pm. As the price neared the weekly pivot i took profit at 1.2820 for a solid 60 pips.

I always say patience pays off and a solid 155 pips made this afternoon.

Ok i am finished for the day now and i will see you all tomorrow.

Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning all

US holiday today so market could be quiet..Lets see!!!

Brent is boxed in just above the pivot. The candles are tiny so any break could see a play.

CABLE is resting below pivot but feel it is a little lost at mom. I still like it lower after breaking out of its triangle but support is slowly coming in so we need to be aware. I am still short longer term but i will be watching this one.

As we know we like GOLD, EUR and CABLE to travel together (like yest afternoon)..

If GOLD breaks 60min 50ma look for a move lower. The 5min 20ma has crossed the 15min 20ma so it would only have to be a tight play.

ok speak later.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

I promise to answer any private messages later today.

Well what a day yesterday. Made quite a few pips on GOLD, CABLE and NZD. I have banked part of my longer term CABLE and NZDUSD trade and confident to hold these both for the near future.

We all read CABLE and EUR perfectly this week and many have been short CABLE since last thursday or friday.

CABLE needs to test the low of 1.5263 and as we speak its about to break out of the 5min triangle. When it breaks i will be short again! The 40s in CABLE are not far away and they will get hit this week or early next week.

GOLD is following EURUSD and CABLE and when these 3 move together it is a dream to trade. Watch the break in EURUSD through the weekly s1 as this could make a move to the low 1.20s.

USDJPY is perfectly boxed in between teh pivot and the 60min 20ma. It should follow CABLE so play the break lower when it is offered.

Have fun and speak later.
Dan

 

[danarm]

Patience is key here in GBPUSD. Wont go short until i get the 123 play on the downside.

If it breaks, it breaks...There is a big gap above the pivot so a 123 might be on there.

Lets see..Either way we make pips.

Enjoy.

PS This will show the direction for the rest of the market in USD

 

[danarm]

What a day!!!

Speak tom.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Well overall a great day. I couldnt trade any short term as had to run back and look after my daughter. She has started diving but unfortunately diving off the sofa head first onto marble isnt the best option. Think shes ready to climb everest at 11months!!!

Well CABLE is in that tricky position of will it continue or should it retrace. My feeling is it has to retrace after such a large fall but i will be very hesitant to buy as its against a very strong down trend.

The USDJPY and EURJPY look the best option for a retracement. If they can find support off the pivot and 60min 20ma look for short plays up, otherwise be patient, let the retracements happen and wait for the next moves down.

Remember to watch the DOW as this is the general and guiding the ship.

OIL is in free fall and the 40s are very close as predicted.

Ok speak soon.
D

 

[danarm]

Evening all

Been in London for the weekend...

Back in office tom and will post morning report then.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Had a great long weekend back in London.

So what do we have facing us today...

Gold on the 4 hour chart is a little messy and yes it is still in a downtrend but has def lost a little direction. As we speak on the shorter time frames, GOLD seems to be popping above the 60min 20ma at around the 740.0 level. A 123 move here should suggest a move higher depending what EURUSD and CABLE do.

OIL is in freefall as we know...Yes there are talks of supply cuts and tankers getting hijacked so be careful of any bear squeeezes. The 5min is very overold this am and needs a pullback at least to the 15min 20ma.

EURUSD is in that 500 pip range and is trying to move lower but is taking a pit stop. The short term charts suggest a move lower with the 252 cci stil in red. The 5min 20ma crossed the 60min 20ma a while ago so its tech not great...Might be patient here and see how it moves in a hour or so.

CABLE understandably has had a small pullback. The 4 hour suggests it is getting tired up at these levels and teh last 4 candles have created lower highs. For any move lower it needs to break below the 4hr 20ma otherwise it will remain bid. The next hour or 2 are critical and if this holds look for a 123 up, if not then wait for a 123 south. Dont get caught here but overall i still like it lower. Have banked twice around the 1.52 and 1.4600 levels.

Ok enjoy and speak later.

D

 

[danarm]

Evening all

Spoken with a few good contacts this evening and many are saying CABLE will target 1.4200 in this next move down.


Added to my short again on break of the 15min 20ma at 1.4985 and will add again on break of daily pivot just below the 1.4900 level.


I really do like this lower.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

GBP looks weak across the board this am. I mentioned last night that i added to my short position. Look for CABLE to break MS1. The Daily pivot and weekly pivot are above and the only thing supporting is this MS1. Lets smash it boys!!! The 60min 20ma is crossing the 50ma which is a bearish sign. Typical as i write GBP is looking slightly bid. Might be worth looking at EURGBP as well today.

I really think this is going to make a big push to the low 1.40s..It will take a bit of time but lets see.

GBPJPY is in a similar situation with 60min 20ma and 50ma crossing. It looks set for a move lower so keep an eye. However if it breaks weekly and daily pivot then all bets are off. That will be a very positive sign.

GOLD actually has the daily pivot above the weekly pivot and looks supported off teh weekly pivot as well as EURUSD. If cable can break lower then watch EUR and GOLD. They wont break the Weekly pivot easily so it will be volatile but wait for break, 123 and hopefully u will see some light.

The only annoyance is wall street looks bid at 8450. We know this is the general at the mom. Is cable really going to break lower with wall st banging up? MMmmmmmm. We will see so keep an eye.

As we speak GOLD making a punchy move up above pivot. Maybe a 123 there... Its early so well see how the movrning turns out. They are all looking vvvvv punchy.....Mmmmmm is this just a falsey or is this a true move.

Lets the games begin!!!

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Well i got spooked and closed out of my long term CABLE position yesterday.

I read too much, listened to too many people and got spooked!!! So what happened well it was a squeeze, got rid of all the small time players and then continued its move lower. What a bugger!!!

These markets are cheeky and u can never get complacent.

GOLD is back in its triangle and again will wait for break.

U know i still like my CABLE lower. This should only be a small retracement so look for a play down on teh break below the MS1.

EURUSD has broken the triangle and again this will targetthe 1.2000 soon.

USDJPY and EURJPY have broken triangles as well and look for small retracements b4 a push lower.

Watch the DOW future this am for movement in the USD.

D

 

[danarm]

Keep an eye on audcad for a short...

I am in just above 0.7950 with a stop at 0.8100.

Its all on my daily videos.

D

 

[lesmor]

Keep an eye on audcad for a short...

I am in just above 0.7950 with a stop at 0.8100.

Its all on my daily videos.

D

Where can I view the videos please
Regards
Andy

 

[danarm]

Morning all

My AUDCAD trade went straight into court by 130 pips and i wake up this am to be flat. A real shame as that had potential... I would hold off for this at the moment as it bounced off very strong support. I have closed out for -10 in at 50 and out at 60 and will wait...130 pips waisted but hey thats life!!!

OIL has fallen through the roof and is heading to our target of $35.

Wall Street is in all sorts of trouble and is making new lows and as expeced thrashed through the 8000 level.

GOLD mean while is looking vvv strong again and could become its own man very soon and not follow the pack. Buy on any retracements at the mom.

EURUSD is being held up and with EURGBP at a critical level it will be interesting to see if EUR remains bid. I cant see it as i still like EUR down to the 1.1500 level and if not below...

CABLE is the one i still lik elower and tested teh 1.4700 level. It has bounced back 150 pips but i would still prefer to sell into this...

The JPYS as explained on all the currencies are making a push lower and great longer term trades. Perfect breakouts and stay short for now.

Gutted about AUDCAD but thats the market. should have banked small at 130 pips but thats life. I am now flat again and waiting for next big play.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Trust you all had a good weekend....

Look at GOLD pullback to the monthly pivot from 790.00...It had such a run on friday that it needs to pullback b4 moving higher. Is it time that we see this GOLD pulling away by its self. Friday has given me a little confidence that it can, so keep an eye on this...

Wall ST future looks a little heavy up here after fridays late rally. Obhama has selected well and the market took it confidently. However any pullback through the weekly pivot could see a pullback to the 15min 20ma.

EURUSD and CABLE look supported but as u know CABLE is following the DOW rather closely so be aware of the DOWs movements this morning...

Infact looking at EURJPY as well, they both looked very strong but i am now thinking that everything could pullback. Mmmmm tricky morning...Need to be patient. Will the FTSE and DAX rally on opening? If so maybe the wall st future will hold support and lift CABLE.

Patience here as very easy to get caught out. Wait for the move then 123 play...

D

 

[danarm]

After looking at charts again, EURUSD has broken the 4 hour triangle on the upside...If GOLD finds support at Daily pivot look at the 5min 20 crossing the 15min 20ma for a long play.

 

[danarm]

Morning all

So what a squeeze in the equity markets...Will this last? Probably not but buy is it good to see the DOW find some support.

My worry still comes back to inflation. The States are printing green bills faster than anything and with interest Rates at low levels where is inflation going to go? Yes OIL and house prices have allowed inflation to fall but surely printing money like toilet paper isnt going to help the situation in the years to come. Yes no growth would mean lower inflation/deflation but printing money is def going to knock the currency in a big way...

So the DOW is boxed now by the 4hr 50ma and the Daily 20ma. Any break from here will signal the next move. Yes its rallied 1000 pips and that happens with bear squeezes. It all depends how long this will last but i am sure the sellers wont be too far away. The 5min chart is showing a very tight box. Any break of 60min 20 and daily pivot will signal the immediate move.

With the DOW finding support, CABLE ultimately broke the 5 week resistance level and is now looking strong. Westy and I are glad we cut our longer term short positions. Cable is supported and will be as long as the DOW is. If it can hold the 60min 20ma look for a 123 north when the ma's line up, if not look for the break of the daily pivot.

Gold double topped yesterday and we saw a great 120 pip move back down to the neckline. The problem here is we should technically see a pullback down to the 4hr 20ma but its such a bid market it makes it very nervy to short. The 5min is showing the candles below the 60min 20ma and daily pivot so there are signs of a pullback. Lets see how this progresses in the next hour or so.

EURUSD is back up at 1.3000 and again is all set up for a pullback. If the 15m 20ma can catch up a little an opportunity might arise. The london open has mainly offered us pullback trades recently which has been frustrating..Dont be short for long as its in a supported market. Any small double bottom around the WR1 could signal for a move higher.

There are no obvious setups except for these pullbacks. Remember the closer you trade to the 5min 20ma and 15min 20ma cross the better, as risk is heavily reduced.

Have a good one.
Dan

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Ok so thanksgiving is out of the way and we are into the last day of the week. GBP and EUR have remanied strong with the DOW future holding the weekly resistance 1 at 8600. I still feel the indices will push on up for a short term longer until everyone realises that this is silly and get whacked back down again. Therefore GBP and EUR should remain supported until this time.

2009 will be the big wake up call...We are only on our 3rd wave in this big move down in teh indices and i see more downside in 2009. I just hope the banks learn from their mistakes.

EURUSD is holding the 4hr 20ma and the 15min shows a clear support. If it breaks the 4hr 20ma look for a pullback, if not look to buy on dips.

If the DOW opens up well today you would think GBP would remain supported. GBPJPY has an ascending triangle on the 60min chart and if this breaks GBPUSD should squeeze higher to test 1.6000. There is a clear support line so buy off this on the 60min chart. If this does break then CABLE could test the 4hour 20ma.

GOLD..Watch this as the price has flat lined but it is building i feel for a next push.

Have fun.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Well teh Welsh are by far the best team in the northern hemisphere..I hate to say it but good on them...

Well what a rally last week in the DOW. It looks strong and with sales up 3% on thanksgiving from last year is there a little confidence coming back into the market...Well i believe this rally could last into Christmas but i will be worried come the New Year as teh next wave could fall off a long way. Anyway lets stay positive...The market is responding well and i am in a gd mood.

GOLD is on a knife edge..Will it fall or will it rally? Looking at teh 60min chart it looks weak and the gap should close but it doesnt seem to be falling yet...Personally i would still prefer to be long of this so i will be looking for buying opportunities.

CABLE and GBP across the board looks weak again. CABLE needs to break this 1.5300 level for a move down to the 1.5200 level.

USDJPY is flatlining and that will affect most of the JPY currencies.

Not a huge lot to shout about but lets see how the morning pans out.

D

 

[danarm]

What a morning..GBPJPY and CABLE were great trades...Perfect breaks.

Pips falling off trees!!!

The London Open is back!!!! Finally!!!!

The 1000+ pip week is back on.

D