It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

The London Open is back...

What a morning.. Attached is the cable chart after the break. Look below for the pre break.

CABLE broke down from 1.5300 down to 1.5160.

GBPJPY broke down from 1.4550 down to 1.4330.

GBPCHF broke from 1.8525 down to 1.8400.

AUDUSD broken from 0.6570 down to 0.6410.

NZDUSD broken from 0.5390 and is now at 0.5340.

Pips galore and i am loving how we look at the longer term and bring you the best setups each day.

I have been pulling my hair out in the last month and hardly placed any short term trades and today has finally given me life again!!!Bring it on!!!

Have a great morning. Remember we do two sessions now, short and sharp... 7.15am and 1.00pm..

See you at 1pm.

Dan

 

[BSD]

The 1000+ pip week is back on.

D

I hope !!!

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Ah Markus good to see someone here...I was getting lonely.

Well GBP had one of the largest falls (5.2% in one day) since the early 90s. Def more fear out there. data is vvv poor and def mroe rate cus to come.

The ISM came out worse than expected yesterday and teh states is starting to feel the pain. How many more months of contracting can it have i ask...Hope is always there and they and us will turn it around but it will be a long slow process.

I still like EURUSD lower and think it will test 1.2000 but its all about entry levels.

CABLE has broken some serious support and my 1.42000 doesnt seem that far away now. Its going to hit it and no matter what people say GBP is moving lower. I have read too much and got spoked too many times but i cant see a recovery in GBP for a while.

EURGBP will be targeting 0.9000 come next year as well...

Hard to jump in on intraday charts today as many are oversold or overbought. Best to allow sufficient retracements and then continue trends.

I still like AUDUSD and NZDUSD lower and look for entries to go short on the 15min chart.

We made a lot of pips yesterday so not going to chuck them away today on bad setups. Patience is needed and if that means only trading 2 or 3 times per week to make good trades then so be it.

The longer term strategy is proving to be vv powerful.. I have always loved the 60min chart and it takes u away from the short term correlations that stop u out of trades.

Enjoy
Dan

PS Short OIL..I like this baby lower in a big way and can see another 1000 pips in this.

 

[mauzj]

Thanks for the excellent information!

What do you mean by "short term correlations"???

 

[BSD]

Ah Markus good to see someone here...I was getting lonely.

Hey Dan, I always pop in here mornings, I enjoy your reports that make a lot of sense.

 

[Rollingstone]

Thanks

Hi Dan

I love your reports too, always excellent analysis and really easy for the novice trader to understand and follow.

Thanks

RS

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Kids hey...Up all night and make u knackered. Got another one on the way and not sure if i am ever going to sleep again!!!

Ok Indices had a recovery yesterday which is no surprise after such big falls on monday. This is the day that i am interested in. Is the DOW going to hold or was this retracement a mere pullback before the next move down. A clear support on the 60min chart so look for support or break off this level.

Gold looks weak still and is set in a 15min triangle, so wait for a break. Any move below the daily pivot could see some profitable pips.

EURUSD and CABLE look messy but weak. Looking for CABLE to fall from here and will look to short as the 15min chart looks attractive on the downside. Wait for trigger here.

Got kicked into my USDCAD play on the break of 1.2500 last night for a solid part profit for 75 pips. Still like this higher as its holding the clear support on the 60min and 4hr chart and will remain part long.

NZDUSD looking weak as well. Been short on the way down but banked too early. Want to get in but going to wait for break of the support on teh 60min chart.

Cant touch AUDUSD at this level. Wait for break of triangle for direction but like this lower.

Still short OIL. What a trade yesterday afternoon. Hemal called that perfectly for a triple top on the 5min and nailed it again for a solid hundred plus trade.

My whole approach has changed..I was trying to be too defensive and protective of stops and in a market like this you cant do that. Look at the 60min for trends and 15min for entry. After pulling my hair out for 4 weeks on short term charts and risking very little i am now making lots of pips again by giving myself the space i need in trades. Reduce risk and widen stops and pips will come.

Starting to love trading again...Got to take the rough with the smooth but at least the misses can now have that handbag for Christmas instead of a pair of socks.

My reports will be on CABLE; EURUSD, EURGBP, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD and GOLD and OIL.

I wont talk about them all but give you a brief outline of what to expect.

Speak later from a happy but tired Dan.
Dan

 

[danarm]

Its been a good day so far...

Lets bring on the pips this afternoon.

I feel alive after the last 4 weeks of tough conditions!!!!

Long may it continue.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Pips for breakfast

Hi Dan

Your pip happiness is palpable and long may it continue.

That's what I really like about you, and having you as my trading mentor - your genuine joy when people around you are making pips and finding success with your strategy.

Just a little suggestion though, from a girlie. If you want to keep the rest of your hair I wouldn't buy your wife socks for Christmas, I think the handbag is a much safer option if harmony is to be maintained.

Thanks, as always, for great analysis and look forward to more of the same tomorrow.

RS

 

[danarm]

Morning all

I totally agree re the handbag... Would have got a kick in the goolies otherwise!!!

So Wall street has held the support but cant rally through the monthly pivot. Is this a double top forming i ask myself? I still like this lower but understand that we get these squeezes in December. Ok so look for the break below the 60min support or a break of the monthly pivot. That will give direction to the currencies this morning.

Gold is in a downtrend still (even though i like it higher) Watch the triangle break for a move lower. A break of DS1 and Ws2 should signal that and wait for a trigger.

EURUSD is still in the 60min triangle. HArd to trade inside it so going to be patient with it. STill like it lower so will hit iton teh break.

There is obvious support in CABLE around the 1.4700 level. I still like this lower an dbeen calling 1.4200 for ages now. The 4hr 20ma needs to catch up but its trying. We sit below the Daily pivot so remain to look for short position swith the triggers for now.

EURGBP is still big... Someone called parity on this for next year. I think 0.9000 or 0.95000 would be enough but what do i know. I cant touch it at this level.. Looks bid but its gone too far on the 60min chart. To be honest u could look for a pullback here but i will leave it for now...

AUDUSD getting very close to the 60min support line. Is it getting toppy at the monthly pivot...Possibly. Wait for break and 123 play for move lower. I like this one...

USDCAD still moving higher... Great to see so many of u taking this trade. I am now out on the reamining part of my trade for 150 pips... Not bad for a slow mover.

NZDUSD has held the support level on the 60min chart. They cut rates by 1.5% to 5.0% as expected. Best to wait for break of support or play the 123 on the 4hr 20ma.

Oil Is best left at this level. I have closed my position from the 1.5100 break.. Will wait for next pullback then break of any support.

Have a good one. Its interest rate day today...

D

 

[danarm]

Morning London

Its friday so you all should be happy.

Wall Street looked punchy last night but couldnt break the monthly pivot. Perfect triple top and fell off 200 pips. It still looks weak and and as long as it stayes below the 60min 20ma look for short opportunities.

GOLD has been messy but great to see Hans making just under 100 pips yesterday afternoon on the short towards the support at 62. Prob best to stay away from this until it breaks as something scarily big is sitting just above the 60 level. Still looks set to move lower but entry is key.

EURUSD found good support yesterday and is now above the 60min 20ma. A break above the 1.2800 should signal a move higher. remember to wait for the trigger on the 15min. Still like it lower overall but technically setup for a move higher this am.

CABLE still in strong downtrend but found support off the daily pivot. A break above the 1.4700 level with a 123 and trigger should see a move to 1.4800. Again still like this lower but understand retracements need to happen. A break below pivot will signal this.

EURGBP looks heavy. A break below the 60min 20ma and pivot should signala pullback. Just looked at GBPJPY and this looks weak so that might question a long cable trade. Will need to watch this one.

USDCAD is bid as we expected but now looks a little toppy and struggling to get past 1.2800.

AUSUSDstill holding support. Patience here but like this lower still. Look to sell when it breaks and plays a 123.

NZDUSD...Messy to say the least. Leave for now. A move below the WS1 should signal the next move lower.

Ok have a great day.

Non farm at 1.30pm....

Dan

PS Just been told one of the guys has made 600 pips in his 1st week with us in the live chat. Great work.

 

[ramrob]

If the beast (crude) can break the 15min 20ma look for a 123 on the upside to close gap to 4Hr 20ma.



D

ok, i'm sorry. This question is for anyone who can answer it. What is a "123"?

 

[BSD]

Rob, this here is the only 123 I know, not sure if that's what Dan means though:

Trader Vic 123 Reversal Pattern Setup***

 

[danarm]

Yes 123 is well known in the trading world...

Cheers...

D

 

[danarm]

Hi

Anyone catch the USDCAD pullback on friday night...Great way to finish the week with a 250 pip trade.

See you monday.

D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Looking for my Christamas pips this week.

Well the DOW remains supported going into silly season and any bad news is met with support. Dont ask why but get involved in the volatility. Made a good 120 pips on the DOW on friday so happy days. We should see the DOW push on up to above 9,000 and maybe 9,500 before Jan settles in and we fall another 25% from there.

Oil is still in free fall and now at $40. Could find a little support here but look for the next down move. Today could see a pullback to the 60min 20ma.

GOLD has rebounded strongly off the support and today will be interesting to see which direction it moves. It needs to break the Monthly Pivot for the next move higher. or a break below the MS1 for a move lower. I am still undecided here so going to be patient. Still fundamentally i like it higher. Infact been investing in a few GOLD funds for the last few months as think this will retest the $1,000 and higher.

EURUSD is in a large triangle on the 4hr chart. The 60min chart is supported and has broken out of the triangle on the upside. Look to buy on dips.

CABLE has broken the 4hr 20ma so again look to buy on dips. Still like it lower but if Wall st remains supported then CABLE should follow. Cant touch here but lets see how the morning moves.

USDCAD is in an ascending triangle on the 4hr chart. look to buy on support and sell again at resistance. The 1.3000 will be tested again and look for a break at some point.

Have a great day.

Speak later
D

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Oil had the expected retracement yesterday and now sits at the WP. Look for the next crosss down with a break below the 60min 20ma for the signal to go short again. Fancy this to $30 now going into next year.

Gold is struggling to find momentum. i am still torn between fundamentals and technicals but at the moment if it breaks the 60min 50ma at 768, there is a chance the price could fall further here.

EUR and GBP were bid yesterday but both pulled back well later in the day. EURUSD has major res on teh 4hr chart and is still inside the triangle. Any pullback through the Daily pivot should signal a pullback to the 60min50ma fro a cheeky 50 pips. Otherwise any break above the 60min 20ma should signal a further rise.

CABLE looks toppy again after a lower high yest on the 60min chart. GBP is boxed in between the 4hr 50ma and 4hr 20ma. Could break either way but to me looks weak here. Need a move below 1.4775 for a clear path lower.

In the JPYs the USDJPY looks the most attractive for a downside play. A break of the MS1at 35 would signal a move lower.

Have a good one.
Dan

 

[danarm]

Morning all

Take a look at OIl on the 60min chart. Can u see how powerful this chart is...The price retraced to the weekly pivot and slowly fell off after touching it 3 times. hard to get in now as triggers are down but wait for nect trigger and play south for a further move. Yes there are talks of OPEC cutting supply but still think this has further to fall.

As mentioned in teh last 2 weeks. Gold is in a difficult position. I like this higher but all technicals were suggesting lower. The good news is the 4hr 20ma is looking strong and wants to cross the 50ma. Any break above the monthly pivot would be seen as very positive and $800 should be tested again. Wait for triggers but this could be lining up well for along if it can break this resistance.

EURUSD is sitting on major resistance on teh 4 hr triangle at 1.2950. EUR seems to be holding in well towards the end of this year but i predict the EUR will struggle in 2009.

CABLE has most certainly found support around the 1.4700 level. Its hard to touch here but i still like it lower. Generally every December GBP finds support so think this might settle around here till 2009 then make another move lower in Jan.

EURGBP is toppy. Been very hard to trade at these levels but still want to buy on dips. Personally will stay out of this one for now.

CAD cut interest rates aggresively yesterday and we saw a solid move higher. This was short lived and maybe the power of the triple top has come into play here. The technicals dont lie...At the moment the short term charts are suggesting to sell on any rises so stay with the trend...

Ok enjoy today..I have promised myself i would go fro a swim today. The 1st session is always the hardest but wish me luck and that i dont sink!!!

D

 

[Tenapenny]

As you can already swim with the sharks, I don't think you'll have any problems. Good luck!

 

[danarm]

Well that was difficult....

The 1st session is always the hardest but glad i went.

Low fat mince pies for me at Christmas!!1

Glad u r on the thread Tenapenny. Its been quiet on here.

D