It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD - Tuesday 10th March

Afternoon all,


AUDUSD:
• Has broken the weekly pivot
• Next resistance level is at DR1 if this is broken look for the 4 hourly 20ma
• If this fails to break then a retracement back to the MA´s would be a good sign as the hourly 50 and 20 cross into the correct direction for an up trend.

USDCAD:
• Looks weak this afternoon after not really knowing what it was doing this morning.
• Will be looking for this to push past the previous low and to DS1. Very difficult to enter now but we will look for a retracement. Before entry.

Gold:
• Again pushing on session lows very difficult selling around this level with such key daily support around here.
• Expect to see a lot of support on the WS1 level and 904 the previous low.
• Not good for trading ATM but will updated if this changes.

Verdict:
Retracements will be key to this afternoon’s session on AUD and Cad to give possible entries. I will be concentrating on the Indices and will update you through the Announcements tab on these.

 

[c_c405]

Short and Long

Here is a snap shot of the trades I made

happy pip scooping!

 

[danarm]

The rally monkey having been on a sabbatical for the past couple ofmonths was back in employment today. The great thing about rallies isthat it gives you a good idea to how people are positioned. The answeris long CDS and long cash (Turkey CDS -70, cash -30bp) so I guess youwon't have to ask me what happened today. Ok just in case you areunsure CDS massively outperformed cash and although there were plenty ofcds sellers out there, real money cash buyers were non existent. BeforeI say this is not a proper rally it's a squeeze, we all have to realisethat there is a huge amount of bad news in the price and squeezes canlast anything from 3 hours to 3 months. Do I think that the market isnow rallying in anticipation of a turnaround of the global economy in 6months time, absolutely 100% no. Can we rally for a few weeks or longerabsolutely yes, however in my opinion because of the awful marketliquidity rallies are an opportunity to sell paper rather than look fora quick buck by going long. You only need to take a glance at the IPdata out of the UK or France today to remind yourself what a mess we arein and assuming a turnaround in this data in 6 months is extremelyoptimistic although I honestly hope I am wrong as an economic recoveryis in all of our interests right now! As I am writing the rally feelsas though it has legs and if it continues cash laggards will startplaying catch up and the CDS squeeze will continue. More of the sametomorrow!

Mr P......

 

[jak672]

Hi danarm, what are your thoughts on Brent oil at the moment?

I'm new to the forum, but I've read a lot of what you've had to say, it's highly generous of you to put so much effort into telling others your outlook. I'm from Twickenham myself by the way...

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUSUSD, USDCAD - Wednesday 11th March

Morning all,

USDCAD:
• Boxed in on the hourly chart between the 4 hourly 20 and 50 MA’s the 21cci is now positive
• 15 minute chart is creating higher lows and we might find and opportunity on the break of 1.2870 to play up to the figure and depending on the strength.
• If we fail to break look for the upward sloping support level connecting the lows and wait for a break of this.

AUDUSD:
• Failed to break the MP and has fully retraced to the 4 hourly MA’s
• Difficult to short here with the hourly 50 just below us.
• However a break of 0.6385 could signal a further move down.
• For a move up we would need to see a break and then 123 onto the 60 minute 20 MA

GOLD:
• With indices likely to rally again today it would be no surprise to see gold falling off again.
• 60 minute is within range of a safe trade but we would need to see a break back through the 15 minute 20 and 50 MA for a clear entry targeting the previous lows around 892.50
• One major concern is that we are back on a major technical support level so trading around here will be very jumpy.

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk Notes - Wednesday 11th March

Good morning London….

USDJPY-
• Looking reasonably weak again now after falling back beneath the averages
• Short position favoured at the moment
• Main line of support is weekly pivot at 98.10
• Play from here at 98.35 with tight 25 pip stop and see what happens at the support or look for break of support

GBPJPY-
• In no-mans-land at present & having fallen so far it’s really difficult to get into this market at the moment
• Waiting for a pullback on 60m chart and may look for short entry from monthly pivot at 135.50

EURJPY-
• Looks weak and IF EURUSD falls through into the 1.25’s then this should push lower
• Has the 4hr 50 and weekly pivot below but room to manouver
• Keep an eye on USDJPY. That needs to fall too

Verdict…

Not overly keen on any of these 3 pairs at the moment although I do prefer USDJPY short. Here it’s right below the pivot and all the m.a’s having just popped up a tiny bit.
Stop would now need to be just 20 pips at .70

Have a good morning.

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Wednesday 11th March

Good morning all

Its mid week and we have chipped away at our weekly target in the London Open.

Let’s see if we can add to those 40 – 50 pips from yesterday morning.

CABLE
• GBP remains weak across the board and is below the 60min 20ma on all 3 of our GBP currency pairs.
• Yesterdays low has been broken at 1.3685 and the new low is 1.3665 level.
• Look at 1.3665 as 1st level of support now and resistance at 1.3735.
• Use these support and resistance levels for breakout levels.
• Look at GBPCHF and GBPJPY to break support levels for GBP to show signs of weakness this am.


EURUSD
• Watch EURJPY for help with EUR weakness this am. If EURJPY breaks the WP at 123.90 EURUSD should weaken.
• EURUSD has broken WP as we speak and looks weak.
• Use the 60min 20ma as resistance here and only play short if you are within reasonable distance to the 60min 20ma.


EURGBP
• The EUR (against GBP) is strong however I do wonder how long this will last for.
• Hard to trade EURGBP at this level as the risk of a pullback is imminent with EURUSD weakening.
• Yes you can buy off the 60min 20ma with the trend but any break back through will be met with sellers looking to push the price back to the 91.50 level.
• I would be patient with this currency.

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD New York - Wednesday 11th March

Afternoon all

USDCAD:
• Failed to break the level discussed this morning. Hit upon it and immediately failed.
• It has now broken out of the support line we were talking about
• If you are not now short wait for a small pull back before a continuation of the downward move.
• Use the 15 minute for entry and the hourly for holding.

USDAUD:
• No 123 sadly this morning to allow us to enter.
• This afternoon 0.65 should act as a resistance level and our hourly trigger is starting to slow
• If we get a pull back towards our 15 minute 20 there could be another opportunity to enter.

Gold:
• With indices coming back to find support we could see Gold starting to break back through the 60 minute 20 MA
• 15 minute chart shows clear support level running up a break could be significant.
• To the upside we would need to see a clear break of DP and 904.00
Verdict
On CAD retracement we could see another entry to the south side. AUD to over bought.
Breaks on Gold could be good depending on the indices. If indices fall gold up, indices rise gold down.

 

[danarm]

New York Open Notes - Wednesday 11th March

Good afternoon guys.

USDJPY-
• Now at last this looks like it’s going to break the level mentioned in this mornings notes.
• That .30 is the 4hr 50 so may well hold but does look weak so expecting it lower this afternoon

EURJPY-
• Having a tug of war between a falling UJ and a rising EU
• Can’t go long prior to a break of DP at 125.50
• Wait to see what UJ does. If it bounces then EURJPY will move up with EURUSD

GBPJPY-
• Needs to break north of DP at 136.25 if it wants to push higher
• Needs UJ to find support off new session low of 98.00 to help
• A break of 135.00 might see it lower

Verdict…..

We’re at a perculiar point here with USDJPY travelling in one direction and GBPUSD/EURUSD travelling in opposite diections.
IF USDJPY bounces off the weekly pivot then I will look for a long position on EURJPY on break of .55 but should USDJPY retrace to 98.45 then turn back down I’ll be looking for a short USDJPY
Disappointed once again with chopping my AM position on UJ but that’s the way it goes sometimes. We pick ourselves up and move on.

Have a good afternoon.

 

[danarm]

GBPCHF has finally turned out ok after a very painfully long afternoon.

See u all tom.

D

 

[danarm]

The day after the rally and I am pleased to report that we are still intact. Sovereign cash spreads 15-40bp tighter, corps underperforming10-20bp better. Flow was predictable Asia continue to be a seller andthis does not change in spite of a 6% rally in stocks and they willcontinue to be sellers even if this rally holds. Europe and US was moreof a mixed bag with some profit taking and a little momentum buying. Iam also pleased to report a little buying interest in Allibk and Bta inpart thanks to the old Sberru stories doing the rounds again and in partdue to the absence of forced sellers.I have done some good reading and listening these past few days and myview is the same despite the rally. I asked this question many monthsago, what is different now to what has been going on in Japan for thelast 20 years? Japan mistakenly bailed out its banks, Japan introducedquantitative easing, Japan has a huge debt/gdp ratio and yet have JGB'ssold off aggressively in the past 15 years? Not only are we bailing outbanks, but if you add Insurance and Car companies the arguments can beeven worse for what's happening in the world right now. Everyone isbanging on about inflationary concerns, later on down the line, well Ihave my doubts. I am speaking to many people from different walks oflife all having the same problems ie they are long assets and short ofcash flow (sound familiar). Well you don't have to be a rocketscientist to work out what is going to happen when they need to raisecash. In addition the job market is in tatters, salary cuts are beingwhispered, unemployed people are applying for jobs at a huge discount totheir old salary. On top of the all that we have the small matter ofcredit card debt, store card debt, mortgage debt, pension deficits etcto pay down. My point is that I believe the power of deflation to bemuch greater than inflation any time soon and that is bad for riskyassets and good for govys. This rally is welcome for all of us however I just don't "buy" it andwill continue to look to lighten up into further strength if we holdhere or rally further.

Mr P.......

 

[c_c405]

2800 pips scooped ... for now

these trades are shaping up to be good ones.

Line the range and trade within it

Cheers!

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Thursday 12th March

Good morning

USDJPY has driven GBPJPY lower but GBPUSD managed to hold strong with GBPCHF holding the 1.6000 level.

Slightly mixed views again in GBP…

CABLE
• Broken the DP on the upside at 1.3790 and will be 1st level of support now.
• The 60min 20ma is above the 60min 50ma suggesting small signs of support in GBPUSD around the 1.3790 level
• However if the 60min 20ma breaks there could be a cheeky gap trade down to the DP.
• 1.3920 is resistance and any break back below the 60min MAs and DP would signal weakness in GBP.
• If it breaks the DP we should look at short plays to retest the lows.
• Verdict look for break of the 60min 20ma for now.ç


EURUSD
• The 60min chart suggests a push higher with support around the 4hr 20ma.
• The MP and DP will be key support levels around the 1.2750 level.
• The technical support line is at 1.2650 and any break below the WP would signal further EUR weakness.
• At present the EUR is trying to hold the 60min 20ma.
• Verdict look for break of the 60min 20ma for now.


EURGBP
• 60min chart looks a little tired up here (I keep saying that!)
• Weakness will only be confirmed if we see a golden cross of the 60min 20ma and 50ma on the 15min chart to the downside.
• Any break back above the 0.9270 level would signal further strength in the EUR.
• The 60min 50ma is holding as we speak but would prefer to see a confirmed 123 play for any short

Verdict
60min 20mas are key again and watch DP on EURUSD and CABLE for signs of support.

 

[danarm]

GOLD, USDCAD , AUDUSD , - Thursday 12th March
Morning all

GOLD:
• Daily Chart is again finding support off the long term support level running from October and we have the first green candle.
• We are now in between the 4 hourly 20 and 50 ma with the hourly 20 and 50 now crossed in the correct direction.
• Looks like we are starting a new upward leg but we will need to surpass the previous highs.
• 15 minute chart is difficult to buy into now but I will be looking for buying opportunities on retracements.

AUDUSD:
• Daily Chart shows us in a descending triangle testing the upper resistance.
• Hourly chart shows a pull back into the 4 hourly 20 MA which could allow us an entry to the upside with a stop the other side of the 4 hourly 20 MA. Look for a break in the downward sloping resistance on the trigger here.
• We really need the USDCAD to start falling to help this position come into play.
• 15 minute chart if it falls through the support could fall to the WP.

USDCAD:
• At the highs again but will it break the 1.3025 level.
• Limitted to the upside through MR1 and WR1.
• Will wait to see what happens with USDJPY and GBPUSD before updating you.
Verdict :
IF Cable can move higher then Cad will drop helping us with a possible position on AUD.
IF Cable moves down then Cad will rise but AUD will fall further.

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk - Thursday 12th March

Good Morning all………..

So exactly how bad an exit was USDJPY this time yesterday, having seen it plummet almost 300 pips from the original entry late afternoon?

USDJPY-
• Been in freefall and would expect it to recover from the daily 20ema at 96.20
• Could potentially be looking for a little pullback should resistance at WS1 get broken at around the 96.50 level
• Need 5ema to cross 20ema for confirmation targeting the 97.00 region

GBPJPY-
• Was a good strong move through 135.00 yesterday but with cable looking pretty strong failed to maximize the downside potential and actually fell less than it’s little sister USDJPY
• USDJPY is almost certain to recover some lost ground this morning & unless sterling strength pushes cable up, which I think unlikely, this pair is non tradable at this moment

EURJPY-
• Again pulled by big sis but only a small fall with EURUSD moving up yesterday
• Very reluctant to go short at these levels
• Best to sit out and wait for retracements

VERDICT…….

Looking for a small long position on USDJPY
Wanting it to break 96.55 and for 15m 20ema to support the price 1st
Not there yet and against the trend but a 300 pips fall on this pair is pretty big so some recovery required

Have a good morning

 

[danarm]

Hi all
(I will be writing an end of day post from now on…)
I am finding this week tough to be honest… Monday was good but Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday have been tough.

Some had a great morning with USDJPY and GBPJPY but i felt these markets were a little oversold and expected a pullback (as per this afternoon) so i didnt take them. Was the right gut feel this am but my timing was poor! (Good to see Joan, Graham and a few others take over 100/200+ pips).

Then a few took some pips with the CHFs this pm… I dont tend to trade the news that often and didnt fancy them either so stayed out…(Well done Tom for making 80 pips in GBPCHF)

So its been a non event for me really. Frustrated with setups, entry levels etc etc.

The reality of a trader is some days are good and some are bad.

I am very confident tomorrow will be good and vvv keen on finshing the week on a high.

See u all tom.

Dan

 

[danarm]

CABLE, EURUSD, EURGBP - Thursday 12th March

Good afternoon

CABLE
• 60min chart has confirmed support with trend line around the 1.3760 level.
• I am feeling small GBP strength back in the market but wont be looking for any long play until we gather support off the 4hr 20ma.
• Think CABLE will be tricky as its consolidating on a daily chart and until we break the support or resistance at 1.3920 I would stay away.
• Verdict wait for triangle to break.

EURUSD
• 60min chart has held support and trend line for support is around the 1.2700 level now.
• The 4hr 20ma has held and EUR looks strong again with EURJPY popping back up.
• Best to now wait for pullback before another long play.

EURGBP
• Needs a pullback but the strength of the EUR is showing.
• 0.9300 is resistance and could look for break of this level or short play from this.
• I keep thinking this will pullback soon as longer term CCIs suggest that but it keeps powering up.
• Verdict could look for a very tight short

 

[danarm]

New York Open Notes - Thursday 12th March

Good afternoon all……

It looks as if the pullbacks are on so going to focus on trying to grab some reversal pips this session.

USDJPY
• Thinking the 15m 20ema may support price at .25 so keeping an eye on that level and targeting .75 - .80 initially

GBPJPY
• Needs to break above 134.00 for a long play here but need cable above 13850 too so watch those levels.
• Not looking for shorts here

EURJPY
• Can’t be touching this long below WP, 4hr 20, 60m 50 & DP
• With EURUSD looking bid I am not looking for shorts

Verdict….

IF USDJPY finds support at 96.25 then I will look for a little long position on this pair.
IF it fails to hold and WR1 proves too much resistance on EURUSD then a short on EURJPY would be a play with a stop above 124.00
Will keep you posted on updates.

Have a good afternoon

 

[danarm]

So who's short GBPCHF, EURCHF or USDCHF??? They have to pullback no???

hahahhaha

I know some of you are...

Dan

 

[danarm]

Well the good news is that the market has held in despite a nervy open.I am no technical wiz kid however I would suggest the last 3 days priceaction is positive short term (stocks). Bottom line everyone is bearedup and positioned accordingly including classic Texas hedge trades.These are painful trades and if stocks continue to trade well I fearthis trade will become more excruciating for some. On top of this I amhearing clients are underweight EM so be prepared for some capitulationbuying which will push spreads tighter still. I have not seen any valuein Russia and Turkey these past few weeks and at these spreads I seeeven less value however that doesn't mean we can't go tighter still. AsI am writing the market has got a very solid feel to it and I am seeingclients who have been very quiet of late looking to buy. Once theseguys have bought I suspect the rally will peter out but we are not thereyet. I will continue to look to sell illiquid bonds into this rally asbid side liquidity will only be temporary. Kazakh bonds continue therecovery with buyers returning to all Kazakh banks except Atf, feelslike they have further to go. My view on the big wide world has obviously not changed, but if you askme, a rally for a while is good for our sanity and it can allow us toreminisce about the old days!

Mr P.......