It's All About The Pips...

[danarm]

GBPUSD , EURUSD - Thursday 5th March

CABLE
• Interest Rates came out as expected with a 0.5% cut.
• GBPJPY is holding the support level so CABLE should the 1.4000 level for now.
• Hard to trade at the moment until we get better direction across GBP.
• 15min chart suggest small weakness with 60min 20ma just above.
• Could be a cheeky short with tight stop at 1.4160 but watch GBPJPY for weakness for this to work.


EURUSD
• Lots of support around the 1.2500 level.
• 15min chart suggest small weakness below the 60min 20ma.
• A stop would have to be just above the 4hr 20ma at 1.2610
• Watch EURJPY for the break of its 60min MA´s for direction.

 

[danarm]

Hi all

I feel like i missed the train by 45minutes.

Everything was setup perfectly in EUR and GBP etc but we were too late. (5.00am is too early for me)

It happens.

See u monday as i´m not interested in NFP.

No notes and no summary video due to NFP.

Have a great weekend.

D

 

[danarm]

I have been told not to mention haircuts today so I will try not to. All I can say is my haircut has not stopped the rot with the markets. As I am writing all the old trades are rearing their ugly heads. Treasuries well bid, Commods off, Banking and Insurance stocks getting slammed, funding rates creeping up etc etc. Tonight's close is crucial, if we don't hang in there tomorrows NFP data is almost irrelevant. EM continues to smoke opium related substances and defies gravity. GE capital trading up front, GM on the brink, Citi bank shares below a dollar and Russian corps in parts better bid on the day! Flow from real money accounts is one way and its not buying, the corporates continue to stay afloat thanks to the dollar rich locals, how much longer this lasts for I am not sure. I remember once being told that there were more dollar notes in Russia than in the US, if that's the case then maybe corporates will defy gravity for the rest of the year. Kazakh was quiet today but buyers are still out there despite the noise elsewhere.One thing I don't know, or really understand is Quantitative Easing. Following the BOE's irrelevant 50bp cut today they announced plans to start QE including the purchase of corporate bonds. This part for me is an unknown quantity ie what corporates do they buy and how many? Same goes for the fed as you have to assume that as Gordon and Barack are now best mates (17 standing ovations, why?) they will be doing the same. If the UK can splash £150bn how much would the Fed splash and what temporary effect would it have on the credit market? I would stress this will only create short term distortions in the markets, long term market forces will always prevail and unfortunately this does not bode well for the future. The good news is that it's a Friday tomorrow!

Mr P......

 

[danarm]

USDJPY broke 97.00 so GBPJPY and EURJPY have gone.

Couldnt resist.

D

 

[Rollingstone]

Rugby backsides

Hi Dan, hi all

Apologies to Julie in advance (but I would say my grandpa was part Welsh).

As a huge rugby fan and great admirer of the flesh on display, I am avidly following the Six Nations. One thing puzzling me though is the disparity in the backsides.

The English and Italians seem to have very neat bottoms, but the Welsh, I'm afraid, are a shambles: their crumpled shorts are jammed up between the buttocks so one leg looks shorter than the other, reminiscent of fat kids at school.

Is this to do with the cut of the shorts, the effort put in or the state of the underlying gluteus maximus? I thought Welshmen had one leg shorter than the other so they could run round mountains, or am I confusing them with haggises?

Anyway, if it's any consolation it would seem that the neater the bottom the worse the team, something else for Martin Johnson to ponder and worry about as he makes his selections for next week's fixtures.

Very neat bottomed RS :medieval:

 

[Black Swan]

Hi Dan, hi all

Apologies to Julie in advance (but I would say my grandpa was part Welsh).

As a huge rugby fan and great admirer of the flesh on display, I am avidly following the Six Nations. One thing puzzling me though is the disparity in the backsides.

The English and Italians seem to have very neat bottoms, but the Welsh, I'm afraid, are a shambles: their crumpled shorts are jammed up between the buttocks so one leg looks shorter than the other, reminiscent of fat kids at school.

Is this to do with the cut of the shorts, the effort put in or the state of the underlying gluteus maximus? I thought Welshmen had one leg shorter than the other so they could run round mountains, or am I confusing them with haggises?

Anyway, if it's any consolation it would seem that the neater the bottom the worse the team, something else for Martin Johnson to ponder and worry about as he makes his selections for next week's fixtures.

Very neat bottomed RS :medieval:

My God, anyone got the mind bleach to hand?:-0 Watching Rugby being concerned about the state of the Welsh packs' arses?

 

[Rollingstone]

Scenery

Black Swan

There is nothing wrong with admiring the scenery, and it always pays to take care of the details.

Would you still refer to Dan as "his Dudeness" if he walked along those Marbella beaches in socks and sandals sporting a Barbie endorsed hairband?

Mind you, given the state of most men's toenails, maybe socks are not a bad thing.

RS

 

[jel31]

Hi Dan, hi all

Apologies to Julie in advance (but I would say my grandpa was part Welsh).

As a huge rugby fan and great admirer of the flesh on display, I am avidly following the Six Nations. One thing puzzling me though is the disparity in the backsides.

The English and Italians seem to have very neat bottoms, but the Welsh, I'm afraid, are a shambles: their crumpled shorts are jammed up between the buttocks so one leg looks shorter than the other, reminiscent of fat kids at school.

Is this to do with the cut of the shorts, the effort put in or the state of the underlying gluteus maximus? I thought Welshmen had one leg shorter than the other so they could run round mountains, or am I confusing them with haggises?

Anyway, if it's any consolation it would seem that the neater the bottom the worse the team, something else for Martin Johnson to ponder and worry about as he makes his selections for next week's fixtures.

Very neat bottomed RS :medieval:

Hi RS

I'm afraid the theory that Welshmen have one leg shorter than the other is a myth. All very well for going around the mountain to Aberpontypandy, but what about coming back again? We'd be in a right mess!

For the record and in defence of the Welsh, my husband has a fine example of a "very neat bottom" and he's from Cardiff.

As for your point about the English and Italians, having been a rugby fan for over 20 years, I have to let you know that the best "derieres" in the 6 Nations Championship are French. Here is an example from their 2008 calendar to prove it:

http://bestyoulike.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/07/imm8.jpg

I would have attached it straight to this message but didn't think Dan would appreciate pictures of naked French rugby players on his thread (I bet a few of the blokes have a sneaky peak though!)

That might give you a different perpective whilst watching the match in 2 weeks, eh?

Julie

P.S. I watch rugby soley in appreciation of the skills and tactics of the game of course :innocent:

 

[Rollingstone]

US Daylight Saving Time

Hi All

On a trading related note, the US move onto their Daylight Saving Time this Sunday so their clocks change by one hour.

Therefore, from next week until UK clocks change on 29th March, check times of US data, Dow opening time etc as they will be an hour earlier if you live in the UK.

RS

 

[danarm]

London Open - Monday 9th March

Good morning all and trust you had an enjoyable weekend…

Its the start of a new week. We have 10 live sessions so break your pips down and aim for your targets in a controlled manner. (250 pips a week should be your target!)

CABLE
• It seems GBPUSD is lost and it can’t rally or fall away from the 1.4000/1.4100 level.
• There is a confused trend at the moment so keep it tight on a 15min chart.
• GBP chart suggest a downtrend with the 4hr 20ma below the 4hr 50ma.
• The 15min chart agrees with the 60min 20ma below the 50ma.
• Its not easy but the only option for now is short plays into the respective support at 1.4090 and 1.4050 level on the 15min chart.
• However with a huge amount of support in the 1.4000s I would be very wary.
• Not an easy setup for CABLE today and I would tread with caution.
• Watch GBPJPY and USDJPY as usual for help with direction.

EURUSD
• 60min chart suggests support around the 4hr 20ma at 1.2615 level.
• A break through here would signal EUR weakness and use the 60min 20ma as resistance.
• Safest play would be a 123 south through the 4hr 50ma.
• If EUR holds the 4hr 20ma I would need to see a break above the 1.2700 level for confirmation of EUR strength.

EURGBP
• Direction is mixed this am.
• 15min chart suggests support back into EUR for a move higher however EUR is weakening across the board at the moment.
• Need to see a break of the resistance at 0.8985 for any move higher.
• Wont be looking for any short plays unless we see a break below the 4hr 50ma at 89.10

Verdict

I am unsure at the moment and will wait for USDJPY to move and break the 98.40 / 98.00 level.

If the 98.40 level breaks on the upside then GBPJPY should hold up and give CABLE that much needed support.

Likewise on the south side.

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD - Monday 9th March

Morning All,

I hope you all enjoyed the weekend.

GOLD:
• After the rally last week a retracement to the 4 hourly 20 MA now looks to be what is needed if we can break through the 4 hourly 50 MA.
• A break of 935 could cause a move to DS1 at 931.
• Our 4 hourly 20 MA sits at 929 so I will be looking for support and renewed buying activity around this area.

AUDUSD
• Have been stuck in between an upward sloping support level and resistance on 0.6460.
• If this now retraces off the support and towards our 60 minute 20 MA I will be looking for selling pressure to start coming in.
• Look for a clear break of 0.6370 or the 123 before entry.

USDCAD:
• On the hourly chart we seem well supported off the 4 hourly 50 MA and 20 MA.
• 15 minute chart we have a downward sloping resistance level which will need to be broken before a move higher. I will need to see a break of this at 1.2890 and then a further break of 1.2900 for a move higher.
• If we break through the weekly pivot to the downside we could see another test of the 4 hourly 50 MA down at 1.27.60

Verdict:
If USD strength is realized today we could see USDCAD pushing up through the levels discussed and also see AUDUSD pushing down through the support. If USD is weak look for the CAD pushing through the WP and down to the 4 hourly 50 MA .

 

[danarm]

Hi All

On a trading related note, the US move onto their Daylight Saving Time this Sunday so their clocks change by one hour.

Therefore, from next week until UK clocks change on 29th March, check times of US data, Dow opening time etc as they will be an hour earlier if you live in the UK.

RS

Thanks RS...

 

[danarm]

Hi all

Not a bad day overall and our student of the day took over 550 pips.

I was a little flat (typical on such a good day) but if i can make ok pips not feeling great then i cant complain.

What hope is there for GBP now!!!

See ya tom am.

Invited to play golf late morning so wont be around for afternoon session.

Lovely!!!

D

 

[danarm]

The bad news is that the doomand gloom continues to engulf us like an avalanche. The headline numberwas not as bad as the rumours doing the rounds this morning however letsput this into perspective. These are the worst set of NFP numbers for aquarter for 40 years, we are in completely unprecedented times and thefuture does not look good. Worryingly for all of us is the lack ofbounce in stocks. Everyone is maximum beared up and clearly long puts,short outright stocks is a popular trade and yet squeezes areshort-lived and rallies are aggressively sold into. Although I am nofans of the charts they do not look pretty and if you believe in them400 on the S&P looks attainable in the medium term. Imagine where wewould be if we had to rely on a central bank as behind the curve as theECB?Despite all this ( I say this a lot) my world continues to be in its ownlittle bubble. Same trend in Russian corporates and Kazakh banks feelmuch healthier than they did 2 weeks ago. The one exception is Turkey,the local banks are long and wrong and you do wonder how long they cansit on this underwater paper until they have to start liquidating. TheCDS continues to outperform as everyone has it and open interest ishigh. There is no point trying to call the bottom to the stock market as CNBChas been doing for 18 months, the time to buy is when the cabbies areselling their banking stocks at zero and talking about buying puts. Assoon as your cab driver starts wanting to short stocks, give me a shoutuntil then grin and bear it.

Mr P....

 

[danarm]

New York Open - Monday 9th March

Good afternoon all.

USDJPY
• USD strength all round today and USDJPY has tested the 99.00 level.
• Need pullback for any long play off the 60min 20ma.
• 99.70 is the high. If we test the 50/60 level it might be worth having a tight short play back to the 60min 20ma.

GBPJPY
• Big GBP falls. The papers say it all and GBP is weak across the board.
• Cant go short at these levels so we need to be patient and wait for pullbacks.

CABLE
• The 1.4050 level from this am has well and been broken.
• Need a retracement before another push lower to the 1.3500 support level.
• Patience needed as CCI say it is oversold.

GBPCHF
• 1.6000 will offer support.
• Only play from here is a pullback with stop below.
• Patience needed as CCI is oversold again.

EURUSD
• The 60min 50ma has been broken and EUR looks weak.
• Need pullback before another move lower.
• Any pullback above the 1.2600 could see a tight stop above the 60min 20ma.

EURGBP
• A solid break from the 0.8985 level this am
• Cant trade long from these high levels.
• Patience needed as CCI is overbought.

Verdict

GBP is oversold across the board.
Need to be careful of pullbacks.

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD - Monday 9th March

Afternoon,

Gold:
• Stuck below the DP and within a triangle.
• A break to the upside would need to be through the DP
• To the downside through 935.00 and would be targeting the previous low.
Already gone so will now be looking for support on the 4 hourly 20 MA. Will update through the announcements.

AUDUSD:
• Broke through the support and fell to 0.6350.
• Would like to see a retracement back into the longer term MA’s namely the 60 min 20 Ma
• A further break of the session lows could indicate a further move south bound to 0.6300

USDCAD:
• Looks overbought across the time frames and we would expect this to retrace back into the MA’s
• Look for resistance off the previous highs at 1.2950
• If we see that level acting as resistance look for a push back towards 1.2900

 

[danarm]

London Open Notes - Tuesday 10th March

Good morning all

CABLE
• I wouldn’t stand in its way. There is too much negativity around GBP at the moment and we should look for selling opportunities.
• The market is a little oversold on the 60min but we should be able to keep it tight on the 15min.
• Use the 60min 20ma as resistance until it breaks back up.
• 1st line of support at 1.3750 and resistance at 1.3850.
• Keep an eye on GBPJPY as usual.
• The 141.75 will remain as huge resistance until broken.
• The 135.50 level will be 1st major level of support at MP and any break through here should target the WS2 area at 133.00.
EURUSD
• The Golden Cross is happening on the 60min chart which is positive for the EUR.
• We need a pullback and support off the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma for further strength in the EUR.
• 1.2725 will be 1st line of resistance and the MP will offer the 2nd major resistance level at 1.2757. We could look for small shorting opportunities at MP with a stop behind if the market is overbought on the 15min chart at the time.
• Otherwise lets stay with the trend and buy as close to the 60min as possible.
EURGBP
• EURGBP is powering up and this easing in GBP is very bad news for EURO land.
• There have been so many mixed reports about the EUR that it was hard to get our head around but as it stands we have to look to buy the EUR on dips.
• 60min chart is overbought.
• 15min chart is overbought and need to wait for next pullback to the 60min 20ma.
Verdict
Stay short of GBP and sell only when it allows with a sensible stop.

 

[danarm]

GOLD, AUDUSD, USDCAD - Tuesday 10th March

Good Morning all,


USDCAD:
• After the break out of the highs yesterday we have seen a retracement to the 4 hourly 20 MA, We could see further buying coming in at this level.
• On the 15 minute chart we are currently supported on the hourly 50 MA and 4 hourly 20.
• To the upside we would need to see a break of the DP and the 15 minute 50 ma. If we start seeing higher lows form then we could get in earlier but I will update you.
• To the Downside we would need to see a break of the 4 hourly 20 ma and would be targeting DS1 then the 4 hourly 50 ma.


AUDUSD:
• After a the move lower yesterday AUD has retraced fully into the 4 hourly Mas
• 21 CCI is a bit high but will be watching for this on the hourly to cross back down.
• 15 minute is boxed between the MA´s so a break through DP and the 60 minute 20 would be most favourable to the downside although the 15 minute 50 is just below this so that would need to be an early profit level.
• To the upside we are limited with the WP and the daily 20 ma just above this.


Gold:
• Has nearly fully retraced onto the long term support level from the Daily chart only $5 to the downside.
• 15 minute chart does look like it wants to move further down waiting for the trigger to come into line.
• The upside will be limited until we can break back through the 60 minute 20 ma

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk - Tuesday 10th March

Good Morning everyone. I hope you are all well.

Today’s action…….

USDJPY-
• Looking rather weak at the moment but has fallen almost 100 pips so need to see retracement back up to somewhere near the pivot at 98.70 on 15m chart before contemplating going short

GBPJPY-
• Finding support on monthly pivot which might possibly be a double bottom
• 135.50 is the level that needs to break here but I am being cautious with the m.a’s so far away


EURJPY-
• Struggling to get through the resistance level on the 60m chart
• 128.60 appears to be the breakout area then 129.00 being the ultimate level for a push higher
• Not interested in going long with USDJPY looking weak

Verdict…

I am quite content to sit-out for the moment and wait for a few greens candles on the USDJPY 15m
I would like to see the trigger coming from plus 100 and get in somewhere near the pivot with a tight 20-30 pip stop.

Have a good morning

 

[danarm]

JPY Desk New York Open Notes - Tuesday 10th March

Good afternoon all…..

I hope a few of you managed to hold the USDJPY of this morning.
Jame’s Gold was a good one too so no need to be looking at USDZAR or Swissie.
We will give you the ‘verdicts’ for the session and these are really the only pairs you will need to monitor.

Bernanke is having a chat this afternoon so the markets could be quite volatile. Be careful around 12:30pm GMT

GBPUSD-
• Trying desperately to hold above the 60m 20ema but not convinced of GBP strength from anywhere just yet so am sitting out of this one
• A break of 1.3900 should see a push higher
• With USDCAD looking weak this may materialise soon but watch the 1.3900 level for confirmation.

EURUSD-
• 1.2740 is the number here. A break of that should see a push. However, there is a monthly pivot just up ahead so not looking for anything unless we see a break of 1.2760

USDJPY-
• Back beneath the 60m 50sma this really needs to break DP at 98.70 before I am getting interested in the upside
• On the downside we need to see WP at 98.00 taken out

EURJPY-
• Making a run with the EUR strength
• A break of 125.40 will see this tackle highs of 125.75 so an opportunity lurking
• Best of the bunch

GBPJPY-
• Nothing doing here with price still below 60m 20ema
• Struggling with overall sterling weakness
• Must wait for break of 137.00 and for USDJPY to break up

VERDICT
Long EURJPY & EURUSD on break