Is this the top?

new_trader

Well-known member
Jan 1, 2006
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#2
The Times: A leading economics think-tank released upbeat estimates for GDP growth in April and May and declared the end of the recession in Britain.
Britain is heading out of recession, says influential think-tank NIESR - Times Online


Media calling an end to the bad news, must be getting near time to go short!
I would have to agree, it is all political spin and ramping.

I can't figure out how the recession can be over when I read articles like this:

'Enormous' rise in debt problemsÂ*-Â*Dealing with debt on MSN Money UK

I actually think the recession has barely begun.
 

rags2riches

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2007
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#4
'Martin Weale, the institute’s director, said he believed that the recession was now over “as far as I can tell”. '

Oh really.....

A quick look at the FTSE 4hr shows that 4500 has been tested 5 times already. Looks like a key battleground.

I am of the opinion that the more a level gets tested, the more likely it is to fall. Patiently watching....
 

robster970

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2008
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#6
The number of FTSE100 constituent stocks that have been moving from stronger to weaker compared to the index has been gradually increasing over the last 4 weeks. There are only 34 stocks that are still showing any sign of strength at the moment. The majority are pulling the index down. It will only take about 3-4 more and I reckon that will trigger the trend southbound for the forseable future.
 

robster970

Well-known member
Dec 26, 2008
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#7
The Times: A leading economics think-tank released upbeat estimates for GDP growth in April and May and declared the end of the recession in Britain.
What they also failed to mention was that these were the members of the thinktank

 
Feb 17, 2008
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#8
Yes I noticed that everyone thinks that house prices have hit bottom as well, normally the downturn in house prices lasts a bit longer, but I suppose the BoE could have got the stimulus exactly right... we will see.

But you are right Foredog, it seems everyone, has changed from doom and gloom to prosperity for all
 

new_trader

Well-known member
Jan 1, 2006
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#9
The number of FTSE100 constituent stocks that have been moving from stronger to weaker compared to the index has been gradually increasing over the last 4 weeks. There are only 34 stocks that are still showing any sign of strength at the moment. The majority are pulling the index down. It will only take about 3-4 more and I reckon that will trigger the trend southbound for the forseable future.
House prices IMO are a better indicator of the state of the real economy because it is something the average person deals with directly and understands it (albeit marginally) better. I don't use economic indicators or news to directly influence my decisions in the stock market, but I am thinking of trading up in property or actually upgrading and I am biding my time. The FTSE 100 was rising 1990-1996 as house prices were falling which reflected the true impact of the recession. If the stock market continues to rise then I figure house prices will continue to fall for another 3-4 years. It seems to me that the smart money is moving out of property and into the stock market as they are generally way ahead of the public when it comes to investing. All IMHO!
 

Black Swan

Well-known member
Nov 24, 2008
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#10
So the gubmnt. has borrowed in excess of 500bl to create 50bl worth of supposed growth...nice...My blood was boiling waking up to this nosense on R4 this morning, does no one in the meeja ever question the credibility of the NIESR? Oh they sound important; stick the words; economic, research, institute, social and national in a brand and it'll work. Have a look at their council of management constituent members and you'll quickly realise they've been 'Mandlesoned'. It's a new Lab sponsored think tank, no more no less.

Also pay attention to the fact that they have created a new methodology, diverting from the ONS which they are trying to drown out. This new methodology will presumably give more weight to service led production...

NIESR - Council of Management


Interestingly the front page of the site has an interesting graph comparing recessions and where we're at, excerpt from their press release today down below, which beggars belief as to how it can be translated as "they think it's all over" ;

"Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output fell by 1.5% in the three months ending in April, after the decline of 1.9% in the first calendar quarter of this year. The estimates for April themselves point to output stopping falling. Monthly data are erratic so it would be wrong to make too much of this. Nevertheless, it is the first time the monthly GDP estimate has not fallen since April of last year.


This improvement means that the output fall since the start of the recession is no longer as sharp as that in the 1929 recession. It is, however, still greater than that of the recession which started in 1979.:LOL:


Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2% point when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics. This comparison can be made only for complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.


A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal. From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating GDP.

From our November 2006 press release we have therefore reverted to using a model of private services output based on indicator variables. This means that, while all our figures for calendar quarters are fully coherent with ONS data, our estimates of monthly private service output are not. The series can be thought of as indicating the underlying value of the ONS series.

*
This is the June part press release, May is the one up top;

ECONOMIC STABILISATION CONFIRMED. OUTPUT RISING IN APRIL AND MAY

Our monthly estimates of GDP suggest that output fell by 0.9% in the three months ending in May, after the decline of 1.5% in the three months ending in April. However, the monthly profile points to March as having been the trough of the depression, with output rising in April and May. The monthly figures are inevitably erratic but the picture is coherent with the broader picture of stabilisation which has emerged since we first suggested that the output had stopped falling in our GDP release on 13th May.

The calculations in this press release reflect the announcement by ONS on 5th June that construction output had fallen by 9% in the first quarter of 2009 and that, other things being equal, this implied that the GDP estimate for 2009Q1 would be revised down by 0.3%. This means that our GDP estimates for 2009 are not consistent with the latest published national accounts, which do not reflect this 9% fall in construction output.

Our track record in producing early estimates of GDP suggests that our projection for the most recent three-month period has a standard error of 0.1-0.2% point when compared to the first estimate produced by the Office for National Statistics. This comparison can be made only for complete calendar quarters. Outside calendar quarters the figures are less reliable than this and they are also likely to be less accurate in the current disturbed economic circumstances.

A paper describing the methodology used to produce the data was published in the February 2005 volume of the Economic Journal. From April until October 2006 our estimates were computed using the Index of Services published by ONS. However this monthly series shows considerable volatility which has caused us some problems in estimating GDP. From our November 2006 press release we have therefore reverted to using a model of private services output based on indicator variables. This means that, while all our figures for calendar quarters are fully coherent with ONS data, our estimates of monthly private service output are not. The series can be thought of as indicating the underlying value of the ONS series.
 
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poborsky

Active member
Oct 14, 2008
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#11
From what I read on GDP figures they are adjusted to take into account inflation (another statistical lie by the govt) and also several assumptions are taken into account which have no basis, but further enhance growth figures. If something like the real figures came out then no other country would lend the UK the money to repay the interest on its debt mountain.
 

robster970

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Dec 26, 2008
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#12
House prices IMO are a better indicator of the state of the real economy because it is something the average person deals with directly and understands it (albeit marginally) better. I don't use economic indicators or news to directly influence my decisions in the stock market, but I am thinking of trading up in property or actually upgrading and I am biding my time. The FTSE 100 was rising 1990-1996 as house prices were falling which reflected the true impact of the recession. If the stock market continues to rise then I figure house prices will continue to fall for another 3-4 years. It seems to me that the smart money is moving out of property and into the stock market as they are generally way ahead of the public when it comes to investing. All IMHO!
That might explain retail money coming into the market but not having enough ummmph to move it right now. I measure the split of stocks in FTSE kind of like an indicator of sentiment in the index itself and where it might be travelling.

Stats for the last month

Date Strong Bull Weak Bull Strong Bear Weak Bear
14/05/2009 41 49 1 9
18/05/2009 40 50 1 9
20/05/2009 42 48 0 10
22/05/2009 40 45 1 14
01/06/2009 40 38 2 20
02/06/2009 38 39 4 19
04/06/2009 40 30 1 29
05/06/2009 37 34 3 26
08/06/2009 37 33 1 29
09/06/2009 34 34 0 32
10/06/2009 35 33 1 31

Strong Bull = 2mnth view, stock trending up, stock outperforming index
Weak Bull = 2mnth view, stock trending up, stock underperforming index
Strong Bear = 2mnth view, stock trending down, stock outperforming index
Weak Bear = 2mnth view, stock trending down, stock underperforming index
 

gooseman

Well-known member
Feb 20, 2008
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#14
we're still knee deep in sh1t. volatility in rates and bonds is going to go mental. eastern europe has been bankrolled by euro members and is virtually bankrupt (see Latvia/Sweden) and US bond supply is overwhelming the market. Everyone is afraid of inflation, Fed can't buy enough. Unemployment is running at a long-term high (9.4% in US-overlooked by a print in NFP, I eagerly await revsions next month). It is a ticking timebomb. There is a chance we scrape through this by sheer fluke but you and me will be paying for it for years to come when that tax bill lands on the doorstep.
 

Black Swan

Well-known member
Nov 24, 2008
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#15
we're still knee deep in sh1t. volatility in rates and bonds is going to go mental. eastern europe has been bankrolled by euro members and is virtually bankrupt (see Latvia/Sweden) and US bond supply is overwhelming the market. Everyone is afraid of inflation, Fed can't buy enough. Unemployment is running at a long-term high (9.4% in US-overlooked by a print in NFP, I eagerly await revsions next month). It is a ticking timebomb. There is a chance we scrape through this by sheer fluke but you and me will be paying for it for years to come when that tax bill lands on the doorstep.
I read somwhere that as a country we are getting further into debt by ten bil a month, or is it a week? Only last month the NIESR were describing the current situation as a depression, now we're going to be technically out of a recession, which they now admit started last May and not in the last Q of 2008 as so many market commentators led the gullible to believe....The level of BS is all consuming, TBH this recession is like no other due to the level of propoganda only mirrored by wartime squawk...
 

Hoggums

Well-known member
Jan 24, 2006
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#16
I think the recession in sentiment is over. I think economists are getting carried away with predictions of turnaround. Switch on CNBC and bask in the multitude of muppets predicting we're now in a bull market.

They are hailing a reduction in the declines, "green shoots". FFS - the figures are still going down. Just because it was less than last month doesn't mean it's good - they're still negative!

They also forget the Billions just recently pumped into the economy - it's the effect of that we are seeing now - wait until that has fed through and there's no more left.
 

Black Swan

Well-known member
Nov 24, 2008
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#19
I think the recession in sentiment is over. I think economists are getting carried away with predictions of turnaround. Switch on CNBC and bask in the multitude of muppets predicting we're now in a bull market.

They are hailing a reduction in the declines, "green shoots". FFS - the figures are still going down. Just because it was less than last month doesn't mean it's good - they're still negative!

They also forget the Billions just recently pumped into the economy - it's the effect of that we are seeing now - wait until that has fed through and there's no more left.
TBH even now I'm staggered at the truly fantastic creative methods various gubmnts have used to lean on central banks to keep all the plates spinning; I didnt think we'd get past TARP1 and since then the level of imagination from various quants has been awesome. However they dress it up and whatever nuero linguistic language they employ it's still the same old 5hit; creating digits out of thin air.. We know where it's headed, inflation on steroids, perhaps not Weimar republic style, but it's gonna hit at some stage surely?