trendie
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Isn't all analysis that doesn't involve inside information Technical Analysis?
Unless you know the forthcoming quarterly earnings, or directly involved in the running of a business, or privy to confidential information, you are using indirect evidence to infer intent?
Without knowing the intent of bankers, directors, etc, you are having to use info such as Volume, size of transactions, movement of price, etc, as a one-step remove to determine the intentions of people directly involved, and to trade accordingly.
Problem is, you sometimes start to see patterns that don't really exist.
Unless you know the forthcoming quarterly earnings, or directly involved in the running of a business, or privy to confidential information, you are using indirect evidence to infer intent?
Without knowing the intent of bankers, directors, etc, you are having to use info such as Volume, size of transactions, movement of price, etc, as a one-step remove to determine the intentions of people directly involved, and to trade accordingly.
Problem is, you sometimes start to see patterns that don't really exist.
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fibo_trader
most common .................. buy hi sell lo (so the Scriptures may be fulfilled)
most used .................. buy hi sell lo
most effective .................. buy lo sell hi
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fibo_trader
NVP
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luckily some 95+% of traders sell and buy at the wrong places and also screw up their stop loss sizing and positioning as well as their Exit strategies
that allows the rest of us to make some money...god bless them all
N
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fibo_trader
The most common Analysis Method is the one used by the masses aka billions of people AND T2W & ET - it is however the least effective:
common #1:
buy buy buy when everyone, especially taxi-drivers, waitresses, janitors and other low wage earners are claiming they are minting money in the market
common #2:
sell sell sell when everyone, especially taxi-drivers, waitresses, janitors and other low wage earners are claiming the market is so dangerous and deadly that its surely going to Hell.
Both the above describe a buyer as Beta Male or an Internet Fat Woman. Both types create a bull market for morticians and proctologists.
The least common market analysis, the least used, but the most effective: (used only by people with no friends):
sell when everyone is euphoric and dizzy (like since January 2018) and buy when everyone is terrified (like at March 2009)
All women (no exceptions) are drawn to a MAN who is the latter (least common type) - women from all over the world will sell all their Beta Male friends to just have a chance to have coffee with this type of Man. The problem is that such MEN are near extinct.
That's why my girls' favorite song this time of year is : "All I want for Christmas is YOU"
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fibo_trader
Amen!
Its Friday nite, I'm partied out and Christmassed out. What a spectacular Christmas, NVP! Prosperous NY to you, you've earned it in spades. Thanks for teaching me aplenty.
Egg nogged up and sitting by the fire overlooking the Pacific ocean and it don't get much better than this. The phones are shut off, the roads dangerous as drunks are staggering all over the place. 2 accidents already within a hundred yards of my place in a very low density residential area. I'm drunk but doing the right thing staying home.
You mentioned the Holy Grail - I remember seeing a Holy Grail thread here at T2W - it was about the Dow Jones. some fella named batsonar discovered this Holy Grail. I started reading it and lost interest very rapidly when the gangbanging exceeded my comfort level.
630 million views in this Christmas song and deservedly so - what a knockout ................
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fibo_trader
That's deep, Man, so deep that its probably best to just lock all doors and windows and hide under the bed and don't do doodly cause its no use and no point in even trying.
>>>>>> Problem is, you sometimes start to see patterns that don't really exist. <<<<<<
I saw pillows that were actually breasts at the airport and fell asleep on 'em. She didn't even bother to wake me up. Bought her breakfast. Nice pattern.
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fibo_trader
The best method I know of to gauge when a BEAR market like that of 2008 is over is when you see a banker iron 5 shirts on Sunday evening. Buy buy buy the next day.
Technical analysis is intuitive. Look at any market-place - when people see the prices of fruit rising fast, they at first buy more fruit before it become more expensive but later they stop buying and keep hold of their cash, as the price is now too high. And if the stall-holder takes prices even higher, the people with fruit start selling on their own and under-cutting him and this can force him to make his fruit cheaper.
But when people see the stall-holder is knocking down the price of his fruit down every 5 minutes, they again hold onto their cash because they can see that in 5 or 10 or 15 minutes more the fruit will be cheaper than it is right now. But sometimes someone with a cart will try to buy all the cheap fruit without waiting for the price to fall even more: this can cause a race to get some fruit before its all sold and can cause prices to go up.
If you can understand this you can understand TA.
None of this depends on knowing anything about farming or the micro-climate in the fruit farms or the "fair value" of a fruit.
But when people see the stall-holder is knocking down the price of his fruit down every 5 minutes, they again hold onto their cash because they can see that in 5 or 10 or 15 minutes more the fruit will be cheaper than it is right now. But sometimes someone with a cart will try to buy all the cheap fruit without waiting for the price to fall even more: this can cause a race to get some fruit before its all sold and can cause prices to go up.
If you can understand this you can understand TA.
None of this depends on knowing anything about farming or the micro-climate in the fruit farms or the "fair value" of a fruit.
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fibo_trader
You lost the plot at the end ..................... good stuff in black text, excellent conclusion in green text, but rotten and irresponsible conclusion in red.
Technical analysis is never wrong. When it appears to fail, its the failure of the practitioner, not TA. We just don't know enough. The right course of action right after you say "TA shows good results in normal trading" is not to sh*tcan the subject but to explore why it fails in black swan events. Therein lies the juice of the next step.
The black swan events you mention are none other than events based purely on Price called Wave corrections. We get them wrong because WE don't undertand the subject. Its laffffable to say News controls Price. The correct thing is, Price generates News"
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fibo_trader
At every market top, including the current suspected/alleged topping process, the NEWS is always good, great optimism, everything hunky dory. So pray tell, as per your premise that "News controls Price" why did the market turn and bolt south as in October 1929, 1973, 2000, 2007? Then, when the News was terrible, terrible, terrible as in March 2009, Price did a U-turn and gave us the longest bull run ever.
When it comes to the magnificent TA its always best to install a DC Motor in one's bum to convert the rotten super-heated steam of negative assessments about TA into actual +ve energy in the direction of work/understanding.
TA = poetry for the Wise because there is no way that 5000 stock exchanges are going to tell lies about the Daily open, low, high. close, Volume - from these self-evident truths, all things financial and psychological can be derived
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fibo_trader
having worked at hedge funds and investment banks alongside traders building systems for them, I can publicly state they don't use technical analysis. They use various modeling techniques and fundamentals for their trading. Technical analysis is primarily a retail trader approach to the market.
when snb removed the peg causing a black Swan. it had nothing to do with any wave, it was a reaction to central bank actions.
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fibo_trader
Put the Hedge Funds back on Technical Analysis instead of Anal-ysis they have been using in 2018 and 2019 because just one example below (plenty more)
Russell Clark's hedge fund, the Horseman Global Fund, had a record bad year in 2019 after betting against the bull market. The fund plunged by 35% in 2019, its worst year ever, Bloomberg's Nishant Kumar reported Thursday. A Horseman Capital Management representative confirmed the number.3 days ago
Kid with a #2 Pencil and ruler/protractor beat's 'em all. My goal for 2020 is to be that kid.
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