is 100% return each year realistic?

[MarketMoverTrader]

I'd like to see you bail out for a tic during NFP.

Sorry, no good example of that so far. I did take 3 tics on this one (hope the attached image comes out). I made 2 points, but got back in and lost 1.25

 

[MarketMoverTrader]

I was rather wondering how that was done too....

For example, my buy order is filled. It moves up and missed my profit target. It wicks down and I 'trade out' just before it goes into negative. Sometime I bail out for the loss of a few tics.

 

[MarketMoverTrader]

Good luck, James... All I can say is that, judging by your strategy, you're a better man with bigger balls than me. I personally know a few people who got carted out using methods that are (possibly) similar to yours. If it works for you, great and long may it continue.

As to the acronym, I think not knowing what NFP is sorta like not being able to identify a steering wheel in a car, rather than smth under the bonnet. Or at least that's what some think.

I really am not, I get scared by big movements. Just remain calm and stick to my strategy. Well, I'm driving quite successfully without knowing what a steering wheel is - who cares, I'm driving. So, what is NFP? I'm here to learn.

 

[gooseman]

I really am not, I get scared by big movements. Just remain calm and stick to my strategy. Well, I'm driving quite successfully without knowing what a steering wheel is - who cares, I'm driving. So, what is NFP? I'm here to learn.

non farm payroll dude....

 

[MarketMoverTrader]

non farm payroll dude....

That makes sense - i know that one. I thought you were referring to a type of gap, if you go back to the original post. Steering wheel located! :clap:

 

[robertola]

Hello as some of you may know I am in the process of building a trading strategy for spread betting. I know a lot of you will what to say to me loosing 100% a year is more realistic because so many traders loose money. But amusing I have several systems and strategys for a range of markets and that I have the discipline trade and become consistent is it realistic to make 100% a year with out running the risk of ruin?

If you make 200 trades per year with a risk reward of 2-1 risking 1% of your capital per trade then yes.

(Now theres a system...just try following it)

 

[SuperDriveGuy]

Sorry - I trade futures. The emini contracts cost $500, and you earn $50 per point. That's standard - 10% per point (then commission of course).

Guys,
I think there is difference in perception here

example x(method of calculation by MMT)
account size 5000
Margin for S&P 500
min movement 12.5( 1 tick)
tp 50(1 point)
sl 50(1 point)
= 10% risk(1 point) (50 is 10% of 500)
= 10% gain(1 point) (50 is 10% of 500)
WHY? because he calculate ROI on capital employed i.e margin required for 1 S&P contract i.e USD 500.
Others here(I think) calculate the returns on funds in the account, so in the case of the example above..

example y(USUAL? method of calculation)
account size 5000
Margin for S&P 500
min movement 12.5(1 tick)
tp 50(1 point)
sl 50(1 point)
= 1% risk(1 point) (50 is 1% of 5000)
= 1% gain(1 point) (50 is 1% of 5000)
WHY because most(ALL?) here calculate returns on account size

I am not saying MMT is wrong, just saying that we are NOT comparing apples to apples here. So his 10% claims if seen in the light of a more widely used accounting method, don't sound false.

MMT and others, please correct If I am wrong.

Happy trading!

 

[MarketMoverTrader]

True. Although I wasn't really making 10% 'claims' - I was just talking about how 10% per point is the return on each contract I trade, and I only make trades where I am setting my profit target for at least 1 point, therefore I don't participate in trades where I expect less than 10% return on the actual money I put down. But I see how I may have been causing some confusion. I wasn't talking on an account/risk/fund management level, but rather what I aim to gain as a return on the money I put down - regardless if I have $10,000 in my account, or just enought to trade 1 contract. The conversation about 10% gains stemmed off from another thread, where the discussion started, so it got a little complicated.

So, to go by the usual method (which you are correct about as far as I'm concerned) - I trade with about half my account balance at most trades. So my 107% ROI I made last month is about 50% on my whole account. But who cares about how much I have in my account. People know what portion of their own total account they want to trade with, and they know how much 1 point on the eminis will earn them relative to how many contracts they trade. So generally I talk in points earned, or return on actual money placed on a trade, for my application of the information.

But on my blog I try to be quite clear about how all my ROI's are stated as a return on actual contracts traded, or actual money down. For example I'll say "I made 10% ROI because I made 1 point, which is a return of $50 per each $500 contract traded. It makes it easier than saying "I made 1 point... blah blah blah... but considering my current account balance is $XXX, my real ROI is 4.5%" - because as I take money out, or add to my account, that will not keep my ROI standardised across the month. I hope I'm making the least bit of sense in explaining my position.

But maybe I'm talking complete nonsense. A few people here will probably think so.
Anyway, I don't think anyone here wants this whole thread dredged up again.

 

[SanMiguel]

but maybe i'm talking complete nonsense.

+1
Return on account is the commonly used method. The contract is not $500, that's just the margin. What if you could trade it with a margin of $300 - does that make you % more even though you win the same $ amount?