May 21, 2026
Trump: "One Hour" from Striking Iran – War Could Expand Beyond Middle East
Tensions between the US and Iran escalated dramatically overnight. President Trump admitted that he was only "one hour" away from ordering airstrikes on Iran but postponed to allow more time for negotiations. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if Washington launches another attack, the war will expand beyond the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of renewed activity after months of disruption, though vessel traffic remains far below pre‑war levels. Global oil prices are fluctuating sharply as markets fear that conflict could break out at any time, especially with the US facing economic and political pressure ahead of the November elections.
Oil Spikes on Supply Fears
WTI crude initially surged to 106.50 per barrel on the headlines before paring some gains.Brent traded near 109. The market remains on edge, with any further escalation likely to push prices toward $110‑115.
Gold Breaks $4,500, Pressured by Strong Dollar and Hawkish Fed
Gold broke the key psychological level of 4,500,trading near 4,470 at the time of writing. The stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on bullion. The FOMC minutes released overnight reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, with members expressing concerns about persistent inflation and the need to keep rates higher for longer.
FOMC Minutes Recap
Trump: "One Hour" from Striking Iran – War Could Expand Beyond Middle East
Tensions between the US and Iran escalated dramatically overnight. President Trump admitted that he was only "one hour" away from ordering airstrikes on Iran but postponed to allow more time for negotiations. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that if Washington launches another attack, the war will expand beyond the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz is showing signs of renewed activity after months of disruption, though vessel traffic remains far below pre‑war levels. Global oil prices are fluctuating sharply as markets fear that conflict could break out at any time, especially with the US facing economic and political pressure ahead of the November elections.
Oil Spikes on Supply Fears
WTI crude initially surged to 106.50 per barrel on the headlines before paring some gains.Brent traded near 109. The market remains on edge, with any further escalation likely to push prices toward $110‑115.
Gold Breaks $4,500, Pressured by Strong Dollar and Hawkish Fed
Gold broke the key psychological level of 4,500,trading near 4,470 at the time of writing. The stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on bullion. The FOMC minutes released overnight reinforced the Fed's cautious stance, with members expressing concerns about persistent inflation and the need to keep rates higher for longer.
FOMC Minutes Recap
- Inflation concerns: Members noted that inflation remains elevated, driven by energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
- Rate path: The committee agreed that rates need to stay restrictive until inflation shows sustained progress toward the 2% target.
- Data dependency: Future decisions will be guided by incoming economic data.
- US Initial Jobless Claims (23:30 GMT) – forecast 212,000, prior 214,000.
- US Existing Home Sales – another read on the housing market.
- Dollar: Supported by hawkish Fed minutes and safe‑haven flows. DXY holds above 99.00.
- Oil: Geopolitical risk premium elevated. Any escalation could push prices toward $110.
- Gold: Bearish below 4,500 Next support at 4,450 and $4,400.
