May 28, 2026
US-Iran Talks: Mixed Signals, but Optimism Persists
Oil prices tumbled over 4% to below $89 per barrel on reports of an informal draft agreement between the US and Iran. Iranian state TV claimed a deal is near, but the White House called the report "completely fictitious." US Secretary of State Rubio warned any final agreement could still take days. Meanwhile, the US military conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have fired on US jets. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, though two non-Iranian tankers transited for the first time in a week.
Oil – WTI Tests $88 Support
WTI crude is trading near $88.15 having broken below $89. Key support is at $88.00 − $88.48 (75‑dayMA). A break below could target $86. Resistance is at $93.83 and $97.20. Even if a deal is reached, supply normalization will take time, keeping oil volatile.
Gold – Holds Above $4,500
Gold is trading near $4,455 − $4,500 pressured by a stronger dollar and highyields. Key support at $4,381 (200‑day MA) and $4,436 (lower Bollinger Band). Resistance at $4,541.80 (Fibonacci) and $4,744.34. Geopolitical uncertainty provides some support, but the Fed's hawkish stance caps upside.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Steady Near $99
DXY is holding above $99 with support at $98.67 - $98.58. Resistance at $99.52 and $99.67. Investors are awaiting US Core PCE data for further Fed policy clues.
Today's Key Data (May 28)
US-Iran Talks: Mixed Signals, but Optimism Persists
Oil prices tumbled over 4% to below $89 per barrel on reports of an informal draft agreement between the US and Iran. Iranian state TV claimed a deal is near, but the White House called the report "completely fictitious." US Secretary of State Rubio warned any final agreement could still take days. Meanwhile, the US military conducted a self-defense strike in southern Iran, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have fired on US jets. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, though two non-Iranian tankers transited for the first time in a week.
Oil – WTI Tests $88 Support
WTI crude is trading near $88.15 having broken below $89. Key support is at $88.00 − $88.48 (75‑dayMA). A break below could target $86. Resistance is at $93.83 and $97.20. Even if a deal is reached, supply normalization will take time, keeping oil volatile.
Gold – Holds Above $4,500
Gold is trading near $4,455 − $4,500 pressured by a stronger dollar and highyields. Key support at $4,381 (200‑day MA) and $4,436 (lower Bollinger Band). Resistance at $4,541.80 (Fibonacci) and $4,744.34. Geopolitical uncertainty provides some support, but the Fed's hawkish stance caps upside.
Dollar Index (DXY) – Steady Near $99
DXY is holding above $99 with support at $98.67 - $98.58. Resistance at $99.52 and $99.67. Investors are awaiting US Core PCE data for further Fed policy clues.
Today's Key Data (May 28)
- US Initial Jobless Claims – 23:30 GMT (forecast 212k)
- US Core PCE (Apr) – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge
- EU Economic Sentiment Indicator (May) – due earlier
- Oil: Bearish below $93. Watch for deal setbacks.
- Gold: Range‑bound. $4,381 is critical support.
- Dollar: Vulnerable to weaker PCE, supported by strong data.