May 18, 2026
Oil – Geopolitics Still in Control:
WTI crude oil started the week near $101 per barrel, after gaining more than 10% last week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and global supply concerns continue to escalate. The International Energy Agency warned that even if the fighting ends next month, the oil market could remain severely undersupplied until October.
Over the weekend, conflicting signals emerged. President Trump first said the US doesn’t need the Strait to be open, then later joined President Xi in stating that “we hope the Strait will be open.” Iran has begun allowing some Chinese ships to transit, but overall tanker traffic remains extremely limited.
Key levels to watch:
Gold fell to $4,511 per ounce on Friday, down about 3.77% for the week. Accelerating US inflation (CPI at 3.8%, the highest since May 2023) has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates high or even hike again. The market has now completely ruled out a rate cut this year.
Technically, gold is testing a critical support zone between 4,500 and 4,511. A weekly close below that level could open the door to 4,360(40‑weekMA).On the upside, resistance stands at 4,687 (25‑week MA) and $4,700.
Dollar & This Week’s Focus:
The US dollar index (DXY) held above 98.50 last week, supported by higher rate expectations. This week’s calendar is lighter, but speeches from Fed officials and any fresh headlines on Hormuz could move markets.
Trading Takeaways:
Oil – Geopolitics Still in Control:
WTI crude oil started the week near $101 per barrel, after gaining more than 10% last week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and global supply concerns continue to escalate. The International Energy Agency warned that even if the fighting ends next month, the oil market could remain severely undersupplied until October.
Over the weekend, conflicting signals emerged. President Trump first said the US doesn’t need the Strait to be open, then later joined President Xi in stating that “we hope the Strait will be open.” Iran has begun allowing some Chinese ships to transit, but overall tanker traffic remains extremely limited.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: 103,107.35 (April 30 high), $110
- Support: 96.40(20‑dayMA),95, $93.34 (last week’s low)
Gold fell to $4,511 per ounce on Friday, down about 3.77% for the week. Accelerating US inflation (CPI at 3.8%, the highest since May 2023) has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to keep rates high or even hike again. The market has now completely ruled out a rate cut this year.
Technically, gold is testing a critical support zone between 4,500 and 4,511. A weekly close below that level could open the door to 4,360(40‑weekMA).On the upside, resistance stands at 4,687 (25‑week MA) and $4,700.
Dollar & This Week’s Focus:
The US dollar index (DXY) held above 98.50 last week, supported by higher rate expectations. This week’s calendar is lighter, but speeches from Fed officials and any fresh headlines on Hormuz could move markets.
Trading Takeaways:
- Oil: Buy dips near 96‑97,with a stop below 96‑97,with a stop below 95. Upside potential toward $107. Gold: Cautious. Watch $4,500 support. A break lower could accelerate selling. Dollar: Range‑bound between 98.00 and 99.00 until fresh catalysts emerge.
