Markets will close the week with two important data releases:
Despite signs of de‑escalation headlines earlier in the week, oil prices remain elevated due to lingering uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is trading near 104 Brent near 107. The market is waiting for concrete confirmation of reopening before pricing out the risk premium.
Gold – Stabilizing Above $4,500
Gold found some footing after breaking below 4,500 earlier this week.XAU/USD is now trading near 4,520, supported by bargain hunting and a slightly softer dollar. However, upside remains limited as long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.
Recap of the Week
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (May) - 0:45 GMT - expected to remain in expansion territory, around 51.5.
- US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May) - 24:00 GMT - forecast 68.5, with inflation expectations a key component.
Despite signs of de‑escalation headlines earlier in the week, oil prices remain elevated due to lingering uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is trading near 104 Brent near 107. The market is waiting for concrete confirmation of reopening before pricing out the risk premium.
Gold – Stabilizing Above $4,500
Gold found some footing after breaking below 4,500 earlier this week.XAU/USD is now trading near 4,520, supported by bargain hunting and a slightly softer dollar. However, upside remains limited as long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance.
Recap of the Week
- FOMC Minutes: Hawkish, reinforced higher‑for‑longer rates.
- Iran Headlines: Trump's "1 hour" threat kept markets on edge, but de‑escalation talks continue.
- US Data: Strong ADP and jobless claims supported the dollar.
- Dollar: Bullish momentum may pause into the weekend. Watch for profit taking.
- Oil: Geopolitical risk premium still priced in. Any positive news could trigger a sharp pullback.
- Gold: Stabilizing but not out of the woods. $4,500 support is key.