Intraday Live short term trading calls from an Expert Retail Forex Trader

[Forexmospherian]

Hope that helps MM - please tell me your confusion etc etc

 

[Forexmospherian]

still utterly lost on the
down still in correct positions up to 6440
despite your chart.

yes on way down at 6440 - lrs and time said still lower

At 6427 - LRs said lower - time said - hold on

at 6430 Lrs said scalp buy with HL and HH and time and pa

 

[MajorMagnuM]

GU Chart blown up with low and Lrs change

my confusion is
down still in correct positions up to 6440
the " up to" bit

 

[MajorMagnuM]

aaahhhhhhhhhhh.
you mean those three are structure and u see the red dashed as warning line.

 

[MajorMagnuM]

At 6427 - LRs said lower - time said - hold on
what was wrong with the time at the low?

 

[MajorMagnuM]

no, i think im still lost

 

[Forexmospherian]

my confusion is
down still in correct positions up to 6440
the " up to" bit

OK

Well at 3 ,50 pm at 6440 - if you had said which way GU - I would have said down - but entering time window

At 3.52 - I would have said down still as price lower than 6440 and Lrs still over and saying lower

at 3,54 pm at 6430 -27 - I would have said down - but where are supports ??

At 3.55 pm - i would have said - dont know now - price as stopped and bounced

Between 3.56 and 4.00pm - I would say - dont sell any more - look for scalp buys

at 4,00pm - I had my scalp lrs under price turning up - and by 4.03pm I would say buy buy buy and hold over 6440

 

[MajorMagnuM]

OK

Well at 3 ,50 pm at 6440 - if you had said which way GU - I would have said down - but entering time window

At 3.52 - I would have said down still as price lower than 6440 and Lrs still over and saying lower

at 3,54 pm at 6430 -27 - I would have said down - but where are supports ??

At 3.55 pm - i would have said - dont know now - price as stopped and bounced

Between 3.56 and 4.00pm - I would say - dont sell any more - look for scalp buys

at 4,00pm - I had my scalp lrs under price turning up - and by 4.03pm I would say buy buy buy and hold over 6440

ok will study this and try and rethink over weekend

 

[Forexmospherian]

ok will study this and try and rethink over weekend

I am about another 20 minutes

Any thoughts on GU or whats confusing you - please raise now - why its fresh in your mind etc

Will pop in later on as well

But no problem - I can see something is confusing you - and I cannot understand as I thought you had now got the scalping part - and was becoming excellent at it - it cannot just be luck all the 100's of scalps you have got correct last 2 weeks

 

[MajorMagnuM]

I am about another 20 minutes

Any thoughts on GU or whats confusing you - please raise now - why its fresh in your mind etc

Will pop in later on as well

But no problem - I can see something is confusing you - and I cannot understand as I thought you had now got the scalping part - and was becoming excellent at it - it cannot just be luck all the 100's of scalps you have got correct last 2 weeks

yes working on what it is that keeps throwing me off

 

[Forexmospherian]

5 30 pm - and finished trading but just noticed GU now no longer trying to test above 6460 for higher

Its a BT area now - needs under 40 and 36 for scalp sells to test low at 27 or lower.

Over 57 and 63 - then more scalp buys and in between - the tease zone for grabbing your dosh ;-))

Have a great weekend and will be about reviewing a few pairs and my general trading after the first month of 2014

Regards

F

 

[MajorMagnuM]

Under 6433 - only 1 or 2 lrs under

Under 6437 - 3 lrs under

By 6442 - 5 lrs out of 9 under

pk got that

 

[MajorMagnuM]

noticed we stopped at 5 mins to hr - so 4 mins into time window

noticed now

 

[Forexmospherian]

We start the second month's trading of 2014 later on tonight / tomorrow and even though I am a intraday short term trader - ( and scalper) I do check out my weekly and monthly charts - to see what might be on the horizon.

Its a short month with only 28 days in total - but still 20 trading days - and atm I might be away again for at least 7 of them. So if i work on say 12 -14 trading days with my daily target of 50 pips that's a Feb target of 600 - 700 pips

For January I had a couple of days under 50 pips - but 3 over 150 pips and the majority over 80 pips

I have been doing well on the EJ / EA / GU and the EU and AU have been more for just scalping 3-7 pips.

I appreciate for any members wanting to participate on the thread - I should focus more with the EU / AU /UJ and even the EG - which I can do - as generally these pairs are kinder for shorter term trades- as less volatile compared to the GJ / EA etc- but off course less likely to achieve 35+ pips in 15 mins

I would like to reiterate this thread is really to help me focus and concentrate in my own trading zone and notes I make through out the day - i revisit every few hrs to see if I was correct and to see what levels I was looking at before i actually take many of the trades.

The fact that I have taken coming up to 14k live trades means it like second nature to just enter and exit and blog at the same time ( this is now my third year of combining trading with blogging)

I rarely use more than 1% stake size and many of my "free trades" on 30% stakes are only on 1- 3 lots size - although with average 5 pips on a $50 - 70K capital account this can mean I am only working on 0.2% stake size and so even a nice scalp with a RR of 4 - still earns me less than 1% gain on my account

I encourage all new short term traders to use less than 2% of their account - unless they are playing with just $100 - $500 and want to grow their account super quick - but then remember - 4 or 5 bad trades and you can blow it as well ;-(

Timing and flexibility are also essential for success. Please don't use a 10 or 15 pip stops and wait to see if get wiped out when its not going right - get out after minus 4 or whatever - and then if it does work out and you were correct on direction - you can always enter again

I am hoping MM will be ready to go over to a live account later this month. I think he has progressed remarkably well - adjusting to short term intraday trading after studying swing trading with Harmonics and Pitchforks. Its totally up to him - but I reckon he has now taken over 500 trades this last 3 months

I also welcome the other new guys who have joined in - although I think a few have got years under their belts - but probably not trading how I trade

Remember - my priority is not to have a losing day. That is more important than going for double my target etc .

If I am lazy and the market is good to me - I can make my target in under 3 hrs with less than 5 - 7 trades. If however I start off poorly and do not improve and have say 3 losing trades in a row - I might then have to take 9 -12 or more trades just to get into the "black". That's why I prefer trades that don't take more than 15 mins - I don't want to be stuck in one trade for 2 hrs or more and have only broken even or made only 10 pips - that's just inefficient.;-)

All questions are welcome - as normal and I would like to wish all members a profitable February

Start with a good first week - GL

Regards


F

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

PS - I have nothing against 4 hr - daily or weekly traders - especially if they are part time - as they might not be able to devote 4 - 10 hrs a day like I do - but traders who use 50 + pip stops and have targets under RR's of 3 - they are really losers before they start ;-))

I use stops of an equivalent size and typically take a fraction of my risk as profit per trade. I have been doing so for some years making reasonable profits on my capital employed. The risk reward ratio myth need to be debunked once and for all. Nothing matters but profit however it is managed.

 

[SteveJM]

Thanks for the update Pete. As you know, you can't start a thread/blog like this without experiencing two basic reactions .... 1/ negativity/envy 2/ interest/curiosity/desire to learn - you have seen off most of the envious although be sure that they are waiting on the sidelines looking for an opportunity to attack - although God knows why they can't just leave people in peace.
For my part I've always been open-minded and I'd rather believe until given reason not to do so than oppose from the beginning. When medieval mariners set sail to explore new lands can you imagine the naysayers lined up on the dock shouting insults at them as they set sail - and it wasn't even their lives at risk. I very much appreciate your reading of the market. This coming week I'd like to short term trade the 3 minute TF on the GU and the AU so looking forward to the continual updates. I would choose the EU over the GU but it seems to be (more) heavily manipulated - what do you think?

 

[SteveJM]

@MM _ I agree with Pete - you are doing a lot right. I also think you are over-trading. Try to get your win rate to 67% - 2 wins for every loss. When you make 33% in a day - think about stopping for the day - heck with 20%. EA may be too volatile for a 5 pip stop unless you're REALLY SELECTIVE with your entries.

 

[SteveJM]

It is proven that our willpower and concentration are correlated to our blood-sugar levels - make sure to eat high quality carbohydrate every hour. Its not for nothing that tennis players scoff bananas down every 2 games or so.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

Try to get your win rate to 67% - 2 wins for every loss.

What should he do to achieve this do you think, huff and puff or wish really hard? If it were as easy as simply telling someone to try, you may as well suggest he try to get his win rate to 100%. Putting aside that rather vacuous advice, without a firm grasp of how much he is winning on his winning trades and losing on his losing trades a win rate is just a number and not an indication of financial health in your trading.

My initial surprise yesterday at the high quality of content on this site has been adjusted down somewhat today with a wider cast of the net. Perhpas a symptom of catching the 'weekend traders' inputs.

 

[PieterSteidelmayer]

It is proven that our willpower and concentration are correlated to our blood-sugar levels - make sure to eat high quality carbohydrate every hour. Its not for nothing that tennis players scoff bananas down every 2 games or so.

Monkeys scoff even more bananas.

By your logic, all I have to do to win the Tour de France is to wear a Yellow jersey.