InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

Cycles, Do They Repeat Or Rhyme?

Cycles have been repeating from the beginning of time. The use of our clock is a cycle. There are sixty seconds in a minute, sixty minutes in an hour, two twelve hour cycles or twenty four hours in a day. The ancients used the moon cycle which is a twenty nine day cycle. The four seasons are a cycle of roughly ninety days for each cycle or season. Cycles are endless and the ancients seem to have been most fascinated with time and cycles of time. This was their clock. The ancient Egyptians, Mayans, Greeks and countless other civilizations based everything that they did on cycles to keep track of time. They used the cycles for the planting of food, harvesting, and even reproduction. Since we know cycles repeat, do they effect the markets, or even sports? Perhaps they do.

Lets first examine the 17 year cycle (cicada cycle). In 1991, the United States of America was in a recession. The recession occurred after a long bull market run that started in 1982 and lasted 7 years until 1989. The president at the time was George H.W. Bush. The United States had just entered a Gulf War which was against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants football team won the Super bowl against the Buffalo Bills that were located in the north east part of the United States. 17 years later in 2008 the President is George W. Bush, the United States is fighting another war in the Gulf against Iraq. The NFL New York Giants win the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots(NE Patriots are located in the north east of the United States). Perhaps this is just a coincidence or maybe there is something more to the cycles.

In 1907 the stock market had a one year crash that was very similar to what we are seeing today. Please note that this is 100 years. The stock market peaked in October of 2007. We have now approached the one year anniversary from that 2007 high. In 1907 and 1908 the Chicago Cubs baseball team made the playoffs in consecutive years. The Chicago Cubs repeated that feat in 2007 and 2008 by making the playoffs in consecutive years, exactly 100 years later. The irony of the story is that a cub is is a baby bear. This market is a bear market. In 1907 it was JP Morgan who came to the rescue and in 2008, exactly 100 years later it is JP Morgan Chase who is again coming to the rescue.

The Mayan civilization used a very advanced calender and cycle system. As most of us now know the 2012 cycle is when all the Mayan cycles converge. This event signals the end of an age and a beginning of the next age. However, there is one cycle that stands out to me. It is called the 'Mayan long count'. This is a 52 year cycle that ends naturally in December 2012 with the rest of the Mayan cycles. If we subtract 52 years from 2012 we get 1960. This was a pivotal time in the U.S. If we subtract 104 (2*52) from 2012 we get 1908. As we all know this bear market is very similar to the 1907 stock market crash which ended in 1908. You can draw your own conclusions.

The last cycle that I will examine is the 10 year cycle. Ten is known as a perfect number, hence perfect 10. Therefore, I personally watch the 10 year cycle and multiples of ten. In the year 2000, major stock indexes began a new bear market. 2010 will be the 10 year anniversary from the 2000 bear market. The market also sold off in 1910 and 1911. This is also 100 years from 2010. Many times market tops are formed in the ninth, zero, and one years of decades. For example 1929, 1910, 1920, 1980, 1990, and 2000 just to name a few.

Whats the conclusion? This is a severe bear market without question. Short term traders appear to be the only people benefiting from the volatile market. This type of environment should last for several years to come. If you are going to invest or trade it is imperative to know and understand the mechanics of the market and not the Wall Street Hype.

Source: Nicholas Santiago,
InTheMoneyStocks - Technical Analysis Education | Stock Market Chat Room | Learn to Trade
 
I love these threads!

re: names of presidents / wars.
show me another example in history where 17 years apart the same name president was in the White House. I will allow you the advantage of them not being involved in a war.
Note however the more prosaic facts of rich and connected people all in high levels of society and political "dynasties", eg, the Kennedys, Roosevelts, etc. But for the fact of tragedy, Robert Kennedy could easily have followed JFK into office. Edward K is a "kingmaker", but who are the next generation Kennedys? Then we have the current Clintons. She has at least another 2 attempts before she's too old to run.
Horror of horrors, Jeb Bush is still alive and may attempt to run for office.
The answers here are more down to earth.

re: peaks around 9, 0 and 1. thats a 3 in 10 chance. Can you show peaks of greater than 3/10 chance?

re: football. the "Cubs" of 1908 are a different team than the "Cubs" of 2008. Its a powerful franchise. In the same way Manchester United is. They have the money to buy their way to success. The name is there, but the people constantly change.
"Cubs" are baby bears = great. (but arent baby (Cleveland) tigers known as cubs? and (Detroit) lion "cubs")
Now show me a chart where wins by the Chicago "Bulls" presage years of great prosperity!

As Fox Mulder would say "I want to Believe".

EDIT: chicago bulls are a basketball team?? oh well. you know the gist of my post! :eek::eek:
 
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What A Difference A Day Makes

As of today, everyone is proclaiming the March lows have successfully been tested and the new bull market has begun. On June 11th, the market made an intra day high on the S&P at 956.23. Everything was rosy on Wall Street again. The new administration was in charge and radical change was taking place. The market seemed to have accepted the new regulations that the new leaders were putting into place. On the surface, it really appeared the President Obama's stimulus plan was working and perhaps the world can print their way out of this financial crisis. The previous administration tried three separate stimulus plans only to see more problems occur. The money seemed to have been wasted. Oil was soaring once again, as it felt like 2007 all over again. Is it really different this time? Can they really inflate this economy back to health?



On July 7th, the talking heads in the media were all proclaiming a head and shoulders top was in place and the market should decline down to the 820 level on the S&P and perhaps possibly test the March lows. On July 10th, I heard the average person talking about a 'head and shoulders' top. Head and shoulders are extremely bearish patterns. These same people who were talking about the head and shoulders top, just days before, thought it was a shampoo developed by Proctor and Gamble. All of the sudden, everyone was a market technician and an expert chartist. What happened to the green shoots from June 11th? After all, this was the first correction since the market bottomed on March 6th at the low of 666.79. It is sometimes comical how people expect things to go straight to the moon without a retrace or pullback after a 40 percent rally. This just is not the way that markets function.



On July 10th, after a one month pullback, the market seemed to be floundering. The crowd was in on the short side eagerly awaiting the big decline. The following week starting July 12th-17th was options expiration week and the markets began a massive rally. The low print on the S&P that Monday July 12th was 875.81. In just six trading days the SPX made a new closing high of 951.13. This is a move of over 8 percent and everyone is talking about green shoots again. Did you really think the shorts and the buyers of put options were really going to cash in that easily? What changed all of the sudden? What happened to retesting the lows?



In the world of trading and investing there is an old saying that should be remembered, 'the best moves come from failed moves'. Therefore, when the media or the so called market mavens are talking about a breakdown or breakout pattern to the world, rarely will you see that pattern play out. The market never does what the crowd expects. In just six short days green shoots are back and sprouting everywhere. The market has fully recaptured a full months worth of declines in less than seven trading days. The media and its talking heads are once again wearing their bull costume. Dow 10,000 is being proclaimed on every channel on the tube. I want off this bullish train ride, something stinks. What a difference a day makes!


Nicholas Santiago,
InTheMoneyStocks.com
The Leader In Market Technical Guidance
 
The Numbers Do Lie – Corporate America Trying To Pull The Wool Over Your Eyes

As earnings season is now in full swing, I cannot help but analyze the earnings results from countless companies. So far the markets have rallied 10% in just the last two weeks. Most earnings have blown through estimates. It has been a meteoric rise, the markets blasting up through the double top from mid June. Things seem to be rosy once more on Wall Street. Talk of a recovery, V-bottom and the next monster bull market are now spewing from the media.

Be afraid. Main Street is having a major disconnect from Wall Street. Along with Wall Street, our government, Federal Reserve and the media are too blame. The wool is been pulled over your eyes!

While the markets continue to soar, I sit back and shutter. Why you ask? Because for those of us that really analyze the numbers, it is a very scary thing to behold. For the common investor, they will simply look at the earnings per share and do their P/E calculations. This tells them whether or not a stock is cheap relative to the S&P historic multiples. If it were only that simple these days.... Accounting changes for financial firms have given them the ability to knock the earnings out of the park. Recently, JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) both blew away estimates. However, does anyone really wonder what the accounting changes actually did to these numbers? Why AIG was saved? Or look at the credit card defaults and risk these companies face going forward? Or better yet, does anyone note the new risks companies like Goldman Sachs are now undertaking in order to turn such big profits? I continue to shutter. The next disaster may be in the works.

While the financial companies are in a league of their own when it comes to earnings, I am here to discuss the earnings of other companies, non financial firms.

What has me so scared for the next two years? While most companies are blowing out earnings per share (EPS) numbers, they are missing on revenue. So how are they able to beat on earnings but then miss on revenue? Simple. Cutting costs. Now think about this. How are they cutting costs? Obviously, as the unemployment numbers tell us, they are cutting jobs. In addition, they are cutting out projects that were not profitable, buying less inventory, trimming the fat in other words. While this is a smart thing to do to make these companies more efficient, in an economy that has unemployment spinning out of control, it may not be the best scenario. Each person that is laid off spends less money. With less money spent by that one person, the trickle down effect is drastic. Imagine how each person with a job spends a certain amount, each place they spend, someone else must work and is paid. They spend, others need jobs and the cycle continues. So imagine the effect of just one layout.

In addition, cutting costs can only go so far. Think of it as a company on steroids in the near term. Yes, they look very strong but wait until certain things start to shrivel or the steroid supply ceases. This is right around the corner, once cost cutting can go no further. Eventually, there is nothing left to cut. So while earnings are blowing away estimates, the real key is to watch the revenue numbers. Within a quarter or two, earnings will start to lag as revenue continues to decline and there are no more costs to cut.

In many ways it is a double edged sword. Near term, the earnings are blowing out expectations, but as a result of the cost cutting, unemployment is spiking higher. This will cause the recession to last much longer. As I have pointed out, cutting costs to boost earnings is not showing the true nature of a company.

To give proof of this you only have to look at the earnings over the past couple weeks. Pick out any handful of companies that reported earnings. Most have blasted through earnings yet revenue was in line or missed.

Let's start with EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (Symbol: DD). Analysts had projected that they would make $.53 on $7.10 billion in revenue. The stock reported earnings excluding items of $0.61 which beat estimates. However, revenue came in light at $7.09 billion.

Next, let's take a look at Coca Cola (Symbol: KO). Analysts estimated they would make $1.00 per share while raking in $10.95 billion in revenue. The company reported earnings per share at $1.02, beating by $.02 but revenue missed, coming in at $10.59 billion.

Last, take a look at Chipotle Mexican Grill (Symbol: CMG). Analyst expected earnings of $.88 per share on revenue of $391.2 million. When the company reported, they blew the earnings out of the water at $1.10 per share. However, revenue again came in light at $388.8 million.

These are just a few of the many earnings beats but revenue misses. As of now the market has swept the revenue misses under the rug. A rally on hope and ignorance continues. It will only last so long. The average investor has no clue as the media is pumping the recovery and the great earnings results. The cost cutting can only last another quarter or two and it will level off. After that, earnings could see a massive plunge. Contrary to many, I see no recovery starting yet. As long as the unemployment rate climbs, people will hold back from spending, not buy houses and continue to struggle to pay their bills.

Unfortunately, earnings numbers do lie and the wool is being successfully pulled over the average investors eyes. They has bought in, hook, line and sinker, putting their hard earned money at what could be a major top.


By: Gareth Soloway
President & CFO
InTheMoneyStocks.com
 
I believe that changing the accounting rules is as bigger scam as any we have seen so far in this crisis. The so called bank profits were down to this and sales of assets. Surely reporting larger profits and more earnings per share is a major mistake at this stage, when companies should be paying down debt and using any savings to invest in future projects instead of paying it out in dividends. Raising capital through the markets is still getting harder not easier. How many more commercial banks like CIT are out there? The banking system is probably still insolvent despite all the trillions thrown at it. This market rally is more than likely designed to allow the banks to recapitalize to as larger extent as is possible and keep the next bailout costs down. Reported growth in the US economy has been down to under-reported inflation for many years. The AIG bailout looks more and more suspect as the govt are prepared to allow CIT to go into bankruptcy. The propaganda for the original bailout was partly based on the fact that business credit would be affected. Apparently CIT provide funding for over 1 million businesses. It is likely that the crisis has only just begun.
 
Don't you think these earnings figures could have something to do with bonuses being cut and the fact that proprietary trading has been a huge earner in the past year?
 
Financial Darwinism at its finest, can't get a decent return on investments? may as well play the markets...The middle classes/baby boomers are being asset stripped like they wouldn't believe...gonna hurt like fook and the moaning will be deafening
 
I guess the thinking is that we might as well take their money now, because when hyper-inflation hits then the middle class will be wiped out anyway.
 
Financial Darwinism at its finest, can't get a decent return on investments? may as well play the markets...The middle classes/baby boomers are being asset stripped like they wouldn't believe...gonna hurt like fook and the moaning will be deafening

I think you're right... and then everyone will be calling for more regulation which essentially protects the idiots from themselves.
 
I think you're right... and then everyone will be calling for more regulation which essentially protects the idiots from themselves.

Interesting how the UK meeja have 'gone off on one' this weekend re. bank lending being as (if not more) expensive with base rate at 0.5% as it was when rates were 3%. Also complaints and phony anger from Darling re. banks not lending to small businesses; who apparently need overdarfts to survive and or prosper. If they're on respirator let them die, sad, but heh...

Firstly, not withstanding the estimated £1trillion fresh cash/digits they have had (or will be getting) in order to repair their solvency issues, banks need to hoover up as much liquidity (out of everyone's pockets) as they can from the economy hence SVRs and CC rates will continue to rise. Banks want your/their/the state's money back in whatever ruse they can conjure up.

They are not interested in lernding and Darling knows and approves of this, Gordo's masters have told him the system must be saved at the expense of taxing two future generations; suggestion from a think tank last week was that an extra 9p in the pound has to be raised to balance the books over the next decade.

What is the point of banks lending (en masse) to fluffy businesses that will fail, or offering up jumbo mortgages when house prices will continue to fall? They know (as do the govt) that the only canary in the mine is unemployment. Until millions of new purposeful jobs are created as opposed to destroyed there is no recovery in sight and asset destruction (both businesses and personal) will be decimated. We're not even at the start of the start of the misery of unemployment, perhaps the elite can arrange another unecessary 14-18 war to 'get rid' of the 750,000 unemployed youths currently with little hope of getting a decent wage or prospects...

The only companies that will be saved, (through leaning on banks by Mandy & Co), will be those with high levels of employment in Nu Lab heartlands, or those such as BA which are allowed to raid pension schemes in order to continue to fund their day to day huge losses. Decisions on Vauxhall etc they'd prefer to kick into the long grass/keep playing keepy uppy until after next May's election, but BA failing cannot be allowed..
 
Important Intra Day Reversal On The SPY (Market). Could This Be More? Supports Noted

The market started slightly on the weaker side as earnings this morning were not great. In addition, as noted by chief market strategists, revenue continues to miss while earnings may beat. This tells us it is just cost cutting that is going on and not actually growth in sales. That is scary within 1 or 2 quarters as earnings may start to lag big time. At 10am ET, new homes sales came out up 11%. Monster number! However, the markets jumped initially, then fall hard and reversed. This may be a major reversal in progress. Be warned. Note the chart below shows the reversal. Each moving average and green trend line should be some intra day support. Stay tuned for further updates.

SPY07_27_09.jpg
 
Important Intra Day Reversal On The SPY (Market). Could This Be More? Supports Noted

The market started slightly on the weaker side as earnings this morning were not great. In addition, as noted by chief market strategists, revenue continues to miss while earnings may beat. This tells us it is just cost cutting that is going on and not actually growth in sales. That is scary within 1 or 2 quarters as earnings may start to lag big time. At 10am ET, new homes sales came out up 11%. Monster number! However, the markets jumped initially, then fall hard and reversed. This may be a major reversal in progress. Be warned. Note the chart below shows the reversal. Each moving average and green trend line should be some intra day support. Stay tuned for further updates.
SPY07_27_09.jpg


Source: InTheMoneyStocks Rant and Rave
 
The Markets Continue To Astound And Blow The Mind

The markets have seen some ugly news over the last few days. Today was no different. Durable goods orders were not pretty but the real kicker was crude inventories. Crude oil got punished on inventory numbers sending XOM (Exxon Mobil) into a tail-spin to the downside. In addition, GS (Goldman Sachs) was smacked hard trading down over $3 at its lows. All major components of the market looked to be getting hacked hard, but the markets were barely negative. In addition, China got crushed for a 5% drop on the Shanghai Index off InTheMoneyStocks.com's pivot call...but again, the markets are barely negative. What is going on? Makes this trader truly question the validity of our markets and whether or not there is an external force keeping things afloat on purpose. Could it be? This has happened many days in a row, the major stocks in the indexes get crushed and the markets barely drop. This trader continues to scalp the market but is starting to question whether or not we are in true market any longer. Could other forces be at work here? If so, this market can only be propped higher for so long until it all collapses. The more propping, the harder the fall. Stay tuned and join the Research Center to get premium education, guidance and picks. For reference, just today, the call went out for a bounce on the dollar, a drop on crude oil and a major pivot turn in China. 3 for 3, home runs! Enjoy

SPY07_29_2009.jpg
 
Is there a cycle value for the repeating of vacuous nonsense?

Or is this slow-burn spam, since the same post has been cut and pasted twice?

Mods: I suggest this thread is merged with the exact same one started a few days ago.
 
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There's certainly a cycle that makes my missus grumpy 7 days out of 28.

Does it effect my trading ? Hell yes.
 
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