InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[InTheMoneyStocks]

When Unsure Follow The Leading Stocks

Everyone must admit that the major stock indexes have staged a tremendous three day rally. Most major stock indexes have surged higher by more than 6.0 percent in that time. The NASDAQ Composite is leading the rally and has actually surged higher by 8.0 percent. On the surface everything looks fine and a potential bottom could be in place. There is one problem with this theory and that is the poor activity in the leading stocks.

Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been considered the leading technology stock in the world. A couple of days ago the company lost their co-founder Steve Jobs to a long illness and the stock has been struggling around the $370.00 level. While this support area is holding up at this time, the more the stock trades sideways the more vulnerable it will become to another decline. APPL stock is not leading the markets at this time and it must be watched closely. This stock is a major component of the NASDAQ 100 Index.

Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) is another leading technology stock that is also a major retail company. This stock soared to new highs on September 19, 2011 when it traded as high as $244.00 a share. The stock has not been able to rally back up to that level and could be somewhat vulnerable in the near term. If this makes a series of lower highs it will become a bearish indicator for the near term. The stock has short term daily chart support around the $198.00 level.

Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) was a stock market leader until mid-July 2011 when the stock traded as high as $300.00 a share. This morning, NFLX stock is trading lower by $1.62 to $121.52 a share. This stock has completely broken down and continues to look horrible on the daily chart. It is safe to say that NFLX is no longer leading the markets.

Copper and many of the base metals have completely broken down. Over the past three days many of the industrial metal stocks have bounced a bit, however, it is important to remember that nothing in the stock market goes straight down or up. Everything will usually get a short term bounce from and oversold technical condition. Energy stocks also look very poor at this time. The financial stocks are bouncing a little this week and that could be a positive sign. The financial stocks have been absolutely decimated over the past three months so this could just be a dead cat bounce.

So what is the bottom line with this market? This stock market rally is lacking real leadership at this time. Until there is some real leadership role by one sector or another, traders must be somewhat cautious. This fast bouncing rally can sometimes end as quickly as they begin.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[ajimikian]

Re: When Unsure Follow The Leading Stocks

Very helpful write up!
by the looks of the JJC chart, it looks like this mini-rally will be short lived and we will see it cover the gap up at $40.74

 

[LuKOs.ro]

Re: When Unsure Follow The Leading Stocks

The three stock examples you included in the commentary - Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Netflix Inc (NASDAQ:NFLX) are going to be the worst hit in the next stock market correction.

Good luck for the ones investing in Netflix

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Three Stocks That Forecast Every Market Move

As we all know, the major stock indexes have surged higher since October 4, 2011. On that date the S&P 500 Index e-mini futures (ES Z1) undercut the August 9, 2011 low before staging a massive rally in the final 45 minutes of the trading day. That chart pattern will usually create a low for several days to several weeks before showing signs of weakness again. In any case, the snapback rally has been nothing short of incredible as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has surged higher by nearly 1100.0 points in six trading sessions.

There are always leading stocks that must be followed closely to tell when the major stock market indexes could face trouble again. When these stocks begin to show signs of weakness it will be a sign that the stock market is vulnerable to another sell off. The three leading stocks that every trader must follow closely are Apple Inc (NASDAQ:APPL), J.P. Morgan Chase & Co (NASDAQ:JPM), and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX). Each of these stocks are a leader in their respected sector.

APPL stock is the most important technology stock in the world. This stock has the highest weighting in the Nasdaq 100 Index. At this time, the stock also has the largest market capitalization in the world at $380 billion surpassing Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM). This stock will be coming into important resistance on the daily chart very soon, however, the stock has been a powerhouse since October 4, 2011. Since the October 4, 2011 pivot low the stock has rallied higher by $53.00. Every trader must watch APPL stock very closely.

JPM stock is the most important bank stock to follow. This stock has lead the stock market higher and lower since the financial crisis began in October 2007. When JPM trades higher the major stock indexes will usually follow. The opposite is also true when the stock declines the markets will often be right behind it.

Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (NYSE:FCX) is the leading copper producer in the world. Copper is the leading industrial metal in the world and that is probably why FCX is so important. Copper has recently fallen off a cliff since late July 2011. At that time, FCX stock was trading around the $55.00 level. On October 4, 2011 FCX stock traded as low as $28.85 a share. Since that low the stock has rallied sharply higher and is trading around the $36.72 area this morning. The stock will have some decent resistance around the $40.50 level which is the daily chart 50 moving average. This stock is a must watch for every serious trader.

These three leading stocks must be watched very closely each and everyday. When these market leaders begin to show weakness that is when the major stock indexes are likely to come under selling pressure again. These market leading stocks seem to forecast every stock market move.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Stock Market Keys To The Day

The markets are hovering on the flat line today. They have been up slightly and down slightly. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (AMEX:SPY) is trading at $122.33, -0.23 (-0.19%). Earnings from mega player Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) disappointed Wall Street. That is taking the technology sector lower while a continued push in the bank stocks are keeping the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average around the flat line.

Yesterday, news broke that a 2 trillion Euro bailout fund had been agreed upon by France and Germany. The markets spiked dramatically higher. This news turned out to be false but the markets gave back very little of those gains. After a two week run of 15%, the markets seem to be tired, however, lack of volume and Federal Reserve POMO (permanent open market operations) is keeping the markets from collapsing.

Cree, Inc. (NASDAQ:CREE) is dropping nicely today on the back of poor earnings results. The stock is trading at $25.14, -2.64 (-9.50%). The stock may be headed back to its 52 week lows at $23.03.

Today, earnings will be reported from American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) and Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN). None of these will have a major impact on the market overall, but they will each have a direct impact on their sectors.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

The Trade: Stocks Eye European Summit

The markets opened sharply higher on optimism that European leaders would reach an agreement on a rescue deal. The Euro was up and the Dollar was taking a beating. No sooner had the markets opened, the Dollar caught a huge bid as fears crept back into the mix. This whipsaw is continuing throughout the day with all eyes on the European summit. Should a deal be reached, the initial reaction will be a sharp rally higher. However, very quickly that may fade as details emerge. The details will shape the future of this market. Right now, the recent rally has factored in a huge rescue package. Will the actual deal meet this view?

Technology is weaker today as Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) missed Wall Street's expectations. Weakness is seen across a majority of technology plays like Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Research In Motion Limited (USA) (NASDAQ:RIMM).

Strength is coming from the financial sector where Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) are nicely higher. A rescue package in Europe is positive for the U.S. banks based on their exposure to Greece and Italian debt.

With the summit starting around mid day east coast time, it may take 12 hours to hear any sort of result. The markets will move on this result in a major way.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Profiting From The Major Shift Inside The ECB

No sooner had the new president of the ECB Mario Draghi said goodbye to the old president Jean-Claude Trichet, he put his stamp on Europe. In a major shift in policy that sent ripples throughout the world, Draghi lowered interest rates by .25%. This may not sound like a big move, but it shows a fundamental shift on how the ECB will be handling Europe going forward. Trichet was a hard line player, always focused on inflation rather than growth. Today, clearly, global governments and the U.S. Federal Reserve hand picked Trichet's replacement and will be a clone of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in terms of policy.

This news sent the markets spiking. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $125.17, +1.18 (+0.95%). Just last night the futures were taking a brutal hit on continued worries out of Greece. This move by Draghi was a golden goblet, sent out to investors saying, "the ECB is now going to handle this problem like the Federal Reserve." In other words, print money, bailout and place more band-aids on the problems for the short run.

Most stocks are higher today. The one area of weakness is coming from the banks. After MF Global Holdings Ltd (NYSE:MF) collapse, Wall Street has been wondering if there are more players that will go bust. Today, Jefferies Group, Inc. (NYSE:JEF) saw massive declines in their stock. The stock closed at $12.27 yesterday, and fell to $9.79 today, before recovering. The company had to come and and defend themselves. There is a lingering worry surrounding all financial stocks. While the rest of the market inches higher, stocks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) are flat to lower.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Bearish Patterns Spell Market Problems

The markets are slightly lower today as all eyes are on Europe. Greece and Italy continue to dominate the headlines as they try and avoid an epic collapse and default. The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSEARCAIA) is trading at $119.06, -0.54 (-0.45%). While the markets are waiting for more news, many tech stocks are showing bearish daily chart patterns. This may tell us of future weakness in the days, weeks and months ahead.

The biggest name with a bearish chart is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) . Note the chart below. It shows multiple bearish setups and is taking the PowerShares QQQ Trust, Series 1 (ETF) (NASDAQ:QQQ) lower. The bear flags are valid on the chart unless the stock closes above $404.00. This coincides with the 20 moving average. Should the stock take out the 50 moving average on the downside, the fall should become steeper, accelerating to the 200 moving average. This offers a classic risk/reward setup for the short side.

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is another classic big name with a bearish setup. After earnings caused the stock to collapse sharply lower, a retrace has occurred. This took the stock up under the 20 and 50 moving averages. The stock is beginning to turn lower and a negative golden cross will trigger in the next few days. This may help the stock sell back down to the earnings low at the 200 moving average.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[ronblack]

Re: Bearish Patterns Spell Market Problems

Markets look for excuse to rally and punish shorts so you gotta be very careful here.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Trading: Stock Setups To Profit By

European news leaks continue to whip the markets up and down. Early in the day, word of a major vote in Italy on a budget drove the markets higher. Hopes of a significant resolution to the Italian debt problems circled in the air. While Berlusconi won the vote, the parliamentary majority was lost. This means any sort of political effort towards a major bailout deal could be a tough fight. The markets initially spiked higher ahead of the vote but sold off as deadlock looks to be the end game in Italy.

The markets are hovering around the flat line. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $126.21, -0.07 (-0.06%). With all the European news constantly shaking the market, it becomes slightly tougher to trade. An investor must always resort to the charts to see the truth, ignoring the hype from the media.

There are three key stocks that look to be the trades of the day. First, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is showing strength. In the last few trading days, Apple has been one of the weaker plays. Today, that is reversing. Whether or not it is going to continue higher can be seen on the charts. Should Apple close above the daily 20 moving average at $404.25, it will most likely head to $409.00. As long as it stays below $409.00 the overall bias is neutral. A break of $409.00, it will head back to the 52 week highs at $426.70. Should the stock stay below $404.25 on a closing basis today, consider it a short over the next few days.

First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) continues to be under pressure, trading at $47.15, -0.59 (-1.24%) . The bearish sentiment on the solar industry continues to be huge. The weakness today continues to elude to the fact that FSLR has more downside. The first major support level worth buying is at $40.00. There will be significant upside eventually on all solar names as bearish sentiment is nearing its highs. The key is to nail the bottom perfectly.

Lastly, a small cap to throw in the mix is Delta Petroleum Corp. (NASDAQPTR) . This is a small oil and gas company trading at 52 week lows. The company is eyeing a sale and based on its current valuation, the upside potential is big. Crude oil is closing back on the $100.00 per barrel level which also sweetens the pot. In addition, other small cap oil plays have already started to move sharply higher. This is a high risk play but may be good for significant upside.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[itmtrading]

Re: Trading: Stock Setups To Profit By

Thanks for the information shared.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Master Levels To Buy On Three Beaten Down Stocks

While the market chops up and down, some key well known names continue to sink lower. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR), First Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:FSLR) and Research In Motion Limited (USA) (NASDAQ:RIMM) are all top tier names on Wall Street that are fighting to survive. Below are the master levels where these stocks will find support. These levels will finally represent a solid risk to reward long play.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. is down from a 52 week high of $115.98. It hit a low of $40.55 today. The chart filled a master gap fill that does tell technical traders of a possible impending bounce. The bounce could take the stock back to $56.00. While the chart does look attractive, make sure to be wary of the current issues with their accounting. Should these issues be cleared up, the upside becomes much more viable.

First Solar, Inc. continues to be in pain. Margins on solar panels continue to decline as the industry must clear the over production from China. This seems to be exactly what the housing market has been dealing with over the last four years. First Solar will most likely head slightly lower. There is a master level at $42.50. Once hit, this stock looks to have solid upside potential. The 52 week high is $175.45 while the current price is $44.69. Intelligent investors will start to eye First Solar at the $42.50 level as risk to reward starts to look favorable.

Lastly, Research In Motion Limited must be discussed. One of the darlings of the market years ago, this stock has lost its way. All charts point to the master level of $14.50. This is where the stock will find major support and a possible bottom. In addition, at this price a buyout becomes very likely. The 52 week high on Research In Motion is $70.54 as it currently trades at $17.65.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Stock Market Analysis From A Pro

Stocks are inching higher today. The S&P 500 is trading at 1,254.97, +3.19 (+0.25%). The markets continue to be stuck on yields from Europe. As yields fall, the Euro inches higher and the Dollar declines. The declining Dollar helps inflate the stock market. High Frequency Trading programs are set to read this and react instantaneously to the moves in the Dollar. A small fall in the Dollar buys the market. It is a game where the fastest make the most money.

Bank stocks continue to show some weakness. Their exposure to European debt issues is still not fully known. There are trillions of derivatives related to Europe and there are very few people that know the true exposure of banks like JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) or Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) . Goldman Sachs is trading at $98.94, -0.35 (-0.35%).

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is finally seeing a bounce after days of decline. This bounce will be short lived according to the charts. Downside support levels on Apple are $372.00 and $363.00. The stock is currently trading at $387.85, +8.59 (+2.27%).

One of the big movers today is Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR) . The stock is surging to $46.13, +3.99 (+9.47%). This is an oversold technical bounce. There is still upside to be seen on this play in the coming days and weeks.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Natural Gas The Next Double

Natural gas has made a bottom. This bottom is likely a much longer term bottom. Price may double and even eventually triple. This move up coming in natural gas is partly fundamental and partly technical. It will be discussed below.

Natural gas is trading at a major discount to oil. Oil continues to hover around the $100 a barrel level. As oil has surged over the last few months, natural gas has fallen. This divergence in price movement should reverse and oil continues to pull back and natural gas bounces.

In addition, the government is near passing a major natural gas incentive bill. This is being championed by T. Boone Pickens. It would give major incentives to trucking companies that switch over to natural gas vehicles as well as car buyers. As long as oil stays higher in the $100 range, natural gas at this price is an obvious choice. Many companies are already switching over to natural gas.

On a technical level, the United States Natural Gas Fund, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) has put in a bottom. This was seen last week when there was a proprietary time count followed by a reversal candle. This reversal candle was nearly engulfing. The ETF that tracks natural has retested the lows but never broke. Today, the UNG is trading at $7.82, +0.13 (+1.69%). This upswing is coming in a weak market where the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) is trading at $119.07, -2.92 (-2.39%). This relative strength also confirms a bottom.

The natural gas is a true hidden gem right now as it trades at lows. Watch for upside to continue regardless of market direction.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[isatrader]

Re: Natural Gas The Next Double

I'm not criticizing your call on Nat Gas. However the UNG is a deeply flawed ETF and suffers from contango problems so it is not a good instrument to trade Nat Gas with except in the very short term. See the performance charts vs the spot price below:

 

[isatrader]

Re: Natural Gas The Next Double

One more example for you on why the UNG ETF isn't a good trading vehicle. When the Natural Gas spot price bottomed in September 09 and went on to make 135% return by January 10. The UNG ETF only made a 20% return in the same time period and was making loss by March 10 when the spot price was still 75% up. So be warned.

 

[isatrader]

Re: Natural Gas The Next Double

To show that it's not all ETFs that have the tracking problem like the UNG and USO do. Here's the Gold spot vs GLD and the Silver Spot vs SLV performance charts which track the spot price very well.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Report: Inside The Stock Market Action

The markets are dropping sharply again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over 150 points on the trading session. This is the sixth straight down day in the markets on continued panic from Europe. The contagion appears to be spreading to Germany as their most recent bond auction went poorly. This is extremely concerning for the European Union. Financially, Germany is in better shape than almost every country in the world, including the United States. As the markets inch towards the Thanksgiving holiday, no traders want to hold overnight positions and take the risk.

Stocks in motion today include Groupon Inc (NASDAQ:GRPN). This was a recent IPO and considered to be one of the elite online companies. The stock has fallen from a high of $31.14 to its current price of $17.25, -2.82 (-14.05%). This mega fall has the stock below the IPO price.

The bank stocks continue to sink on possible exposure to European debt. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced new stress tests for the banks. The criteria to be tested was their exposure to the European debacle. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) is trading at $28.62, -0.79 (-2.69%).

Technology is also taking a hit today. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) jumped $7.50 yesterday but is giving up that entire gain and then some today.

Gareth Soloway
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

All Of The Players Are In Place For An Inflation Extravaganza

Yesterday, all of the major stock indexes around the world surged higher after the central banks announced the coordinated intervention for the banks holding European debt. This action by the central banks is a repeat of the action taken back in September 2008. We all know what happened shortly after that intervention in 2008 as the stock markets cratered into March 2009. This time around the central bankers will probably be a bit smarter and the current scenario will not be as dire so soon. In other words, the liquidity pump will be kept on turbo mode. The problems will seem a little better than they really are.

Recently, the European Central Bank (ECB) had a changing of the guard. The former President of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet has been replaced by Mario Draghi. Now it is important to note that Draghi was the vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International. This guy lowered the key interest rates in the European Union on his second day in power by 50 basis points. In other words, Draghi is ready to inflate the markets at all costs. Italy, France, and the United States have all had talks of making the ECB more like the Federal Reserve. You see, the Federal Reserve can print all the money they want. Just look at the recent reports and you will see that they have bailed out the banks to the tune of over $7 trillion. At this time, the ECB cannot print money to bail out the banks and this is exactly what is going to change very soon. The ECB will soon be just like the Federal Reserve and they will begin to print money and simply monetize the debt.

Everyone knows that when you monetize the debt it causes inflation. This is what is coming down the road. This plan will take some time to implement, however, it won't take that long. The institutions know this and will simply play the inflation game the same way they have in the past. Inflation is coming, and it will come in a big way. Traders and investors should continue to be cautious as these stock markets are likely to be extremely volatile over the next year while these central banks get there plans in order.

Nicholas Santiago
InTheMoneyStocks

 

[new_trader]

Re: All Of The Players Are In Place For An Inflation Extravaganza

The ECB will soon be just like the Federal Reserve and they will begin to print money and simply monetize the debt.

No Joke...I've been saying this for months and have been insulted and criticized for it.