InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[Dentalfloss]

Re: Inflation Alert: Fed Pumps Another $7.9 Billion Into The System

very many thanks gareth.as usual.an excellent and very informative article by you
again..many thanks
keep em coming

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Inflation Alert: Fed Pumps Another $7.9 Billion Into The System

Thank you kindly, D.

very many thanks gareth.as usual.an excellent and very informative article by you
again..many thanks
keep em coming

 

[Martinghoul]

Re: Inflation Alert: Fed Pumps Another $7.9 Billion Into The System

Bollox as usual...

 

[spinola]

Re: Inflation Alert: Fed Pumps Another $7.9 Billion Into The System

Keep the money coming boyz ! I mean more the merrier right ? Lovely jubbly !

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

GM IPO Debut All But Guaranteed An Up Day

The markets are rocking higher today as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $120.26, +2.04 (+1.73%). Today, the biggest IPO ever debuted. General Motors Co (NYSE:GM) opened higher today and has continued to hold gains. There should be no one out there surprised that the markets are substantially higher today. Ben Bernanke and friends allowed the institutions to hold off propping the markets early in the week to clear the massive number of calls out into options expiration. Remember, the institutions make billions on selling options and have a vested interest in making them expire worthless. A worthless option means they maximize their profit on the premium paid to them. With a little wink, wink, the Federal Reserve seems to have allowed the institutions to do their dirty business while making sure that on the day an American icon debuted, the markets would soar. This is known as a little give and take amongst the big boys. There was no way the government and the Federal Reserve were going to allow a market tumble on the day GM became public.

In addition to the above mentioned reasons, the institutions now need to whip the puts out of the money in the opposite direction. This is another solid reason why the markets could and most likely would be up going into Thursday and Friday. The Dollar is lower today, yet even as it moves off its lows, the markets do not drop. This is a sure fire signal POMO money is being used to prop the markets up on this important day.

Next week takes us into the important Black Friday biggest shopping day of the year. Knowing the Federal Reserve, the markets will most likely stay neutral to positive. The stronger the markets, the more people will buy. The more people buy, the more it helps the economy as the average American runs their credit card bills sky high. Right now the Federal Reserve does not care how much debt is created, whether it is U.S. debt or the average American. They just want the economy to recover in the short term and claim victory. They are not looking at the next bubble on the horizon that they are causing. Be aware, learn and live well.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist

 

[Dentalfloss]

Re: GM IPO Debut All But Guaranteed An Up Day

many thanks.i am always interested into how the market is manipuated..i am surprised that the fed has not sent a hit man...they must think you are a blasphemer.the public really do need to know their tricks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: GM IPO Debut All But Guaranteed An Up Day

LOL, Dentist. We are definitely on the same page, but if we know one thing they will find an alternative means of sending the "hit" ... businesses mysteriously shut down.

But while we are alive we NEED to get the word out!

many thanks.i am always interested into how the market is manipuated..i am surprised that the fed has not sent a hit man...they must think you are a blasphemer.the public really do need to know their tricks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

The Weekend May Hold Major Keys

While it is highly likely the markets will float neutral to higher next week, the European mess may throw a curve ball into the mix. Ireland is still a mess and it is likely a bailout is the only way to remedy the situation. In addition, the problems in Ireland are starting to spread to other countries. This is much like what happened with Greece when the panic spread to Spain and Portugal. Today, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) is trading at $119.81, -0.15 (-0.12%). After the monster rally yesterday, the markets seem to be consolidating, awaiting the weekend and nervous as to what news may break out of Europe.

Ben Bernanke has started a rigorous defense of his monetary policy to critics all over the world. The Federal Reserve policy of pumping trillions into the U.S. economy continues to fuel fears of major asset bubbles and runaway inflation.

If the weekend remains quiet, watch for a neutral to upside bias next week. POMO and a weak Dollar handled by the Federal Reserve will attempt to keep the markets up into the biggest shopping day of the year, Black Friday. The PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is trading at $22.75, +0.01 (+0.04%).

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Bust Cycles And The Fed

Many investor and stock traders will always say that the great bull market began in 1982 when President Ronald Regan took office. While the S&P 500 Index did make a pivot low around that time the great bull market actually began much earlier than that. Believe it or not the great bull market began in 1974. At that time the Federal Reserve Bank had the Fed funds rate(overnight lending rate to the large major banks) around 12.92% in August of 1974. In September 1974 the Federal Reserve Bank began to slowly lower the Fed funds rate and that marked a significant low in the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The rally or boom cycle from the 1974 stock market low lasted about 13 years. The 1987 stock market crash was the top of that boom cycle.

After a sharp decline in 1987 the S&P 500 Index made new highs highs again in 1989 and traded sideways for a full year and a half before surging to new highs. In February 1991, the Fed funds rate was at 6.25% and was steadily being lowered by the Federal Reserve Bank. From the 1987 S&P 500 Index pivot low to the year 2000 the next boom cycle took place. It is important to note that this was another 13 years in time and this lead to the technology bubble. In total the entire boom cycle was 26 years from 1974 and was all caused by the lowering of the Fed funds rate by Federal Reserve Bank. Please note that in January 1999 the Fed funds rate was at 4.63% which was the lowest level since 1992. As we can clearly see every time the Fed funds rate has been lowered the action has caused a market boom. When the rate increases it causes a bust.

In 2003, the Federal Reserve Bank lowered the Fed funds rate down to 1.25%. This was the lowest level that the Fed funds rate had been since 1954. Again, the low interest rate gave birth to the housing and credit boom. This rally or boom cycle lasted just 5 years and as we know lead to the greatest recession that the country has ever seen since the Great Depression.

In December 2008 the Federal Reserve Bank lowered the Fed funds rate down to 0.00 – 0.25%. This helped the stock market to inflate higher and marked a significant cycle low in March 2009. Since that time the S&P 500 Index has bounced higher by 80 percent. However, the stock markets continue to struggle at this current level. Unemployment in the United States remains very high and has not really improved much since late 2008. The U.S. housing market continues to deteriorate with foreclosures rising nearly every month. Commodity prices have soared higher creating inflation for the Asian economies. How long will it be this time before this current boom cycle ends and the bust cycle begins? If recent history proves correct it wont be long. Each bust cycle is getting shorter and shorter in duration. The Fed funds rate is already as low as it can go. Other measures are being used by the Federal Reserve Bank such as the purchasing of U.S. Treasury bonds to keep the current inflation rally alive. We can only wonder how long boom cycle this can last?

Nicholas Santiago
www.InTheMoneyStocks

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

European Debacle Sends Stocks Reeling

The European situation continues to unravel after Ireland got a $113 billion bailout over the weekend. Spain and Portugal are next, with more countries on the horizon. This sent the Dollar spiking higher. A stronger Dollar is bad for the artificial wealth effect that the Federal Reserve has been pushing. Thus the markets are lower. If things quiet down, the Dollar may pull back helping the market off the lows. The strongest sector of the day is financial firms and banks. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) are both nicely higher even with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 100 points. As a Chief Market Strategist, I focus mostly on the technical levels of a stock. Both stocks had beautiful long setups today. Goldman Sachs hit the key 50 moving average on the daily chart. After dropping from $171 to $157.00 and hitting the 50 moving average on the daily chart, it was a clear buy for a bounce. With a $2.00 bounce off the lows, it was a great trade. In addition, JPMorgan Chase had a setup that was just as good if not better. Note the chart below. This trade setup was based off a hit and cross of the slanted trend line. Once hit, this was an obvious buy for a bounce. The entry was between $37.15 and $37.25. The stock has now jumped back to $37.80 in one day. For the record, this JPM trade was an alert given in the Hot Charts and Alerts via the Research Center.

The charts tell the truth, companies do not. Learn to trust the levels on the chart and read them correctly and make money the smart, successful way. With the markets weak today, there were some long opportunities. We got them, did you?

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Asia, Europe, U.S. Dollar, and QE-2 Make The World Go Around

Where do we begin when trying to talk about this global soap opera? Lets start in Europe. Ireland is now on the official bailout list with Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Belgium being adding to the list of the next countries to need a bailout. Gold has surged to a new high versus the Euro currency. In other words panic is starting to set in and this problem is starting to hit the fan. The big question that everyone is asking is, will there be enough money available to bail out these countries? Perhaps the Federal Reserve can bail them out if they have not already. Today the Currencyshares Euro Trust(NYSE:FXE) is trading lower by $1.32 to $129.41. On November 4th, 2010 the popular FXE was trading at $142.28. When the Euro declines it means that the U.S. Dollar climbs and this is what deflates the global markets.

Yesterday the Chinese central bank (People's Bank of China) said that loose monetary policy must change. This means interest rates will go higher and easy credit will not be as readily available. This could certainly hurt the industrial commodity stocks. Leading stocks such as U.S. Steel Corp.(NYSE:X), and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.(NYSE:CLF) could be negatively effected. However, it is still the movement in the U.S. Dollar Index that will likely drive the commodity stocks higher or lower.

North Korea and South Korea tensions seem to be increasing. China says that they want peace and will mediate the talks between the two countries. However, many experts believe that China supports the North Korean actions while the United States obviously supports the South Koreans. This story is far from over and will probably continue to unfold over the next few months.

Now on to the U.S. Dollar Index. When the U.S. Dollar Index declines the stock markets will rally and inflate higher. Even this morning as the U.S. Dollar Index pulls back intra-day the major stock market indexes bounce off the morning lows. The opposite occurs when the U.S. Dollar Index rallies or trades higher the major stock indexes simply deflate and trade lower. The U.S. Dollar Index holds all the cards to whether this stock market trades higher or lower. In my opinion all the rest of the news is minuscule when compared to the action in the U.S. Dollar Index. Just remember the stock market trades inverse to the U.S. Dollar.

Let us not forget the Federal Reserve Bank's quantitative easing operation. This is where the central bank will buy $600 billion in U.S. Treasuries in order to stimulate the economy. This is really just more support for the large major banks. These institutions that sell the U.S. Treasuries to the Federal Reserve Bank are expected to buy stocks and inflate the stock market back up. Just look at how the NASDAQ 100 stocks surge higher after a POMO operation.

Well, this is what makes the financial world go around at this time. While Asia, Europe, and QE-2 are all important it is the U.S. Dollar Index that is the most dominant market mover at this time. When the U.S. Dollar Index falls the major stock market indexes inflate and trade higher. The opposite is true when the U.S. Dollar Index rallies, the major stock market indexes will deflate and decline. Therefore, this environment remains a traders market.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Dollar Pulls Back, Commodity Stocks Stay Hot

Commodity stocks remain extremely hot in the current market. From copper and gold, all the way to steel and molybdenum. Stocks like Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) are at 52 week highs while even stocks like United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:X) has broken dramatically higher in recent weeks. It is getting harder and harder to find a good investment in a commodity play.

There is a solid speculative play I bought. It, like all small caps, carries a lot of risk but could give forth a massive reward. The stock is Tri-Valley Corporation (AMEX:TIV). This stock has its hand in multiple commodities. They drill for oil, mine for gold, copper and molybdenum. I love that this company does it all. All of these commodities have been hotter than the sun in terms of making the underlying stocks run. In the latest quarterly report, the CEO said, “Oil and gas revenues continue to grow as we move forward on our plans to increase production from our two main California projects. During the quarter we expanded the 30-day steam cycles on two of the three remaining oil wells at the Pleasant Valley oil sands project in Oxnard, California, and we completed the initial steam cycle on the fourth well at our Claflin project near Bakersfield. At the same time that production has increased, we have driven production costs down significantly through reductions in headcount and a strict focus on cost controls.” In addition, he also stated. “Our mineral assets in Alaska continue to represent additional opportunities to generate returns for our shareholders. Yesterday, we announced our interest in moving forward on the exploration and development of our Shorty Creek Prospect, near Fairbanks, Alaska, with the assistance of an experienced partner. Recent studies have indicated a potentially large porphyry copper, gold, and molybdenum system on the Shorty Creek property, which covers an area approximately eight miles in diameter. With the operational and financial assistance offered by a partner, we believe we can more quickly monetize the Shorty Creek asset. We have also initiated efforts to evaluate strategies to maximize the value of the high grade, high brightness calcium carbonate deposit at our Admiral Calder mine near Ketchikan. The high grade, high bright calcium carbonate there is considered to be among the top one percent (1%) of such deposits in the world. Our focus is on accelerating the monetization of these mineral assets to enhance shareholder value.”

These comments by the CEO are bullish for a commodity stock that has dropped from $1.00 in October to the $0.50 range. It also represents a double bottom on the chart. Most other commodity plays are making new yearly highs. Especially with the market cap size this company holds. The one drawback and the probable reason for the recent decline is the company is short on money. The CEO did cover this in the latest quarterly announcement. He said, “Finally, during the quarter, we increased our stockholders’ equity to $5.9 million from $4.6 million at the end of June, through the issuance of 355,000 shares of restricted Series A preferred stock. With this additional equity, our stockholders’ equity is very close to the $6 million minimum required for our continued listing on the NYSE Amex, LLC, exchange. We anticipate raising additional capital during the fourth quarter and are exploring strategies that will minimize dilution to our existing shareholders. To expand the options open to us, we recently signed a Sales Agreement with C.K. Cooper & Company for the potential sale of up to $3 million of common stock under an at-the-market (“ATM”) equity offering program.”

It would seem to me that the recent decline in TIV has factored in any future dilution. The value of the land in Alaska should be solid and any partnerships could send this shooting higher. At the current $0.50 level, it looks to be a solid reward play. I picked some up myself at $0.50.

Gareth Soloway

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Retailers Looking Hard For The Next Positive

The retailers look suspended in mid air without any fuel left to propel them higher. Expectations have been so high for retail sales, it appears there is almost no possible way they can go much higher before a pull back. The top pull back candidates are the high end retailers like Tiffany & Co. (NYSE:TIF), Coach, Inc. (NYSE:COH). These have had the biggest moves higher, many up 50-100% in the last six months. If retail sales falter even a tiny bit, these could come down hard. In addition, even if retail sales perform up to par, these stocks have factored that in already. Another factor holding back high end buying by the rich is the uncertainty over taxes in the coming year. This will keep some from purchases from being made.

The markets will most likely avoid any major pull back into the end of the year. This is mostly due to the Federal Reserve and their market propping techniques. They intend to keep the markets up to get the average American spending to the maximum. The only way a major sell off happens is if Europe has another major blow up in Spain, Portugal, Belgium or Italy or the Korean peninsula goes to war.

Gareth Soloway

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

The markets jumped higher today at the open, rallying on a sharp drop in the Dollar once again. Commodities were off to the races, with gold and silver leading the charge. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) hit a high at the open of $139.54 while the iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV) hit a high of $30.00. This move was driven by the hype over the last week and yesterday. Amateur traders and investors were buying with reckless abandon, after hearing rumors that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was caught short and an inevitable short squeeze on silver was looming. Even the media and talking heads on TV were all over the squeeze.

When I hear this nonsense I start to salivate on the short side. Always go the opposite way of the crowd. That was all hype on JPM being caught short. The average investor who bought this morning was plainly fooled and took the bag from institutional smart money. Please, do not be so dumb average investor! It drives me crazy. Learn the game. As an expert trader and Chief Market Strategist, I implore you all, do not get caught in the hype.

Like clock work, these commodities jumped higher at the open in a frenzy of buying by amateurs, while institutions gladly sold to them. This marked the high of the day. Since the GLD hit its high of $139.54, it reversed and turned negative, dropping to a low of $137.32. The SLV collapsed from a major gap higher to turn negative. It went from $30.00 to a low of $29.12.

Never fall into these foolish tricks. Trust me, if JPM was truly short, they are powerful enough with powerful friends to push it in the direction they wanted. I would dare say, now most institutions are short silver and a small pull back has begun. Learn the tricks, do not get caught with your pants down.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist

#1 Rated

 

[TRADEFUTURES]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

The markets jumped higher today at the open, rallying on a sharp drop in the Dollar once again. Commodities were off to the races, with gold and silver leading the charge. The SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (NYSE:GLD) hit a high at the open of $139.54 while the iShares Silver Trust (ETF) (NYSE:SLV) hit a high of $30.00. This move was driven by the hype over the last week and yesterday. Amateur traders and investors were buying with reckless abandon, after hearing rumors that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was caught short and an inevitable short squeeze on silver was looming. Even the media and talking heads on TV were all over the squeeze.

When I hear this nonsense I start to salivate on the short side. Always go the opposite way of the crowd. That was all hype on JPM being caught short. The average investor who bought this morning was plainly fooled and took the bag from institutional smart money. Please, do not be so dumb average investor! It drives me crazy. Learn the game. As an expert trader and Chief Market Strategist, I implore you all, do not get caught in the hype.

Like clock work, these commodities jumped higher at the open in a frenzy of buying by amateurs, while institutions gladly sold to them. This marked the high of the day. Since the GLD hit its high of $139.54, it reversed and turned negative, dropping to a low of $137.32. The SLV collapsed from a major gap higher to turn negative. It went from $30.00 to a low of $29.12.

Never fall into these foolish tricks. Trust me, if JPM was truly short, they are powerful enough with powerful friends to push it in the direction they wanted. I would dare say, now most institutions are short silver and a small pull back has begun. Learn the tricks, do not get caught with your pants down.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
www.InTheMoneyStocks.com
#1 Rated

WTF are you on about. The smart traders / Investors / Money have been long Silver since it was sub $20.

 

[TRADEFUTURES]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

Don't listen to this guy....NEVER BET AGAINST THE PREVAILING TREND.

 

[Dentalfloss]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

gareth
once again ,many thanks
i shall be looking for a failed long signal at resistance

 

[Dentalfloss]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

gareth...you are living dangerously now....first of all,the fed wants to blow youre head off....soon it will be jpm

 

[jpaulino]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

haha, the OP is actually dead on. The hype was telling the amateur to buy silver yesterday via the media. Instead, the gap up this morning was the perfect shorting opportunity. I nailed it via their call actually. A trend trader is only a winner until the trend fails. Learn the techniques and become a better trader my friend before spewing crap

WTF are you on about. The smart traders / Investors / Money have been long Silver since it was sub $20.

 

[Chartsy]

Re: Do Not Get Caught With Your Pants Down

haha i bet i had half of arabian's chatroom take off their pants today .
*****