InTheMoneyStocks Market Analysis

[InTheMoneyStocks]

BAC Gaps Higher Then Rolls Hard...Bear Flag Possible Formation To Watch For Later Tod

BAC announced they would be paying back the TARP funds by raising money in an offering next Monday. The stock gapped higher today and pushed up only to reverse hard and sell into the 20/50/200 moving average area of support. At that point BAC bounced and has formed a beautiful in spirit of bear flag pattern. This may play out later today should the pattern continue to hold. If it plays out, the target is gap fill at $15.65.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Analysis Of The Key Economic Reports (Grade: C-): Data Remains Scary But Dollar Rules

The economic news flooded the market this morning as Jobless Claims came in better than expected while Retail Sales and ISM Services came in far worse than expected. Let's analyze. Jobless Claims came in far better than expected. What does it mean? Well I would personally put an asterisk next to the number. Why? Well last week was Thanksgiving and Black Friday (the biggest shopping day of the year). Most companies would very possibly scale back layoffs on the week of Thanksgiving. In addition, any company in retail would most likely not be laying off employees right before Black Friday and the surge in consumers. Then if you look at Retail Sales and ISM Services. Both coming in far weaker than expected. These are most likely a more truthful guide to the actually economy. Mind you this economy is high on government spending as well. In fact, GDP would have been negative if not for the massive amount of printing the government/federal reserve has done. In any case, I give this economic news this morning at C- at best. The markets continue to hold around the flat line. Why? Why have they not sold off? Simply point, the dollar is holding it in check. As long as the dollar is controlled and not allowed to pop, this market, regardless of any or how bad the economic news is, will hold its gains. Understand the rules folks and enjoy making some money!

-Chief Market Strategist Gareth Soloway

 

[Hercules88]

Re: Analysis Of The Key Economic Reports (Grade: C-): Data Remains Scary But Dollar R

Completely agree. Good stuff, keep up the excellence ITMS

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Analysis Of The Key Economic Reports (Grade: C-): Data Remains Scary But Dollar R

Thanks, Hercules! Much appreciated.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Unemployment Report Stuns Wall Street As Chief Market Strategists Analyze

The Jobs Report stunned Wall Street this morning at 8:30am ET. From the trenches, the traders bought the news quickly. The Futures spiked up 15 points on the S&P sending shorts running for cover. While this number was tremendous, it also has to be looked at as slightly suspicious. Why? Mainly due to the fact that you are going into the holiday season and a large jump in workers which off set losses was due to temporary jobs. In other words, retailers hiring for seasonal employment going into Black Friday and Christmas. This hiring helped reduce the amount of net lost jobs in a major way. In addition, 100k people decided to stop looking for work. This comes off the top as once they stop technically looking for work, they are not counted in the unemployment rate which dropped from 10.2% to 10%. Why do people stop looking for work? Well at some point, especially into the holidays, people tend to throw in the towel. Either it gets too frustrating and depressing to continue to not find work or the holidays are a time to spend it with the kids, wives and extended family, rather than being out hitting the pavement. In any case, the number was a solid number. As a Chief Market Strategist, I give it a B+ rating. Most will give it an A+, however, noting what I have said in the paragraph above, I think we should still remain slightly cautious and not throw a parade just yet. Also note that the economic data has remained ugly aside from the jobs report. That has to be factored in as well.

Chief Market Strategist gives the Jobs Report a B+ rating.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Can the market rally with a stronger U.S. Dollar?

The entire stock market rally has occurred on the back of the weak U.S. Dollar. Simply put, this rally was nothing more than a re-inflation rally. Everything inflationary moved higher such as gold, copper, steal, iron ore, and agriculture. Today the dollar is catching a strong bid and the stock market is higher on the back of the U.S. government job report. Is it possible that a recovery is really underway? What will happen if the dollar begins to rally? One would think that commodities would fall or decline in price. If this is the case what would move this market higher? Where is the next catalyst for another leg higher in stocks. Use caution here as everyone gets excited over a government jobs report during the holiday season.

By IntheMoneyStocks on December 4th, 2009 10:24am Eastern Time

 

[charliechan]

Re: Unemployment Report Stuns Wall Street As Chief Market Strategists Analyze

Nice post.

Personally, I never give much credence to the figure itself as a day trader. Look how ES soon fell back after the opening range was established. This leads me to believe that unless the factory orders figure out at 9.00 CST was something special (unlikely), the rally we saw after the figure was simply a put up in order to continue selling from greater heights (liquidity is usually much thinner in the moments after big numbers, so markets are easier to manipulate).

Intraday, all the main moves have been downward, despite the market (ES) being flat the last week or two. I think the longer term money are slowly unwinding their positions and getting short.

Just my opinion, but I wouldn't be adding to my longs just yet!

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Huge reversal today so far. Is the "friday effect" holding it steady?

The stock market has staged a huge reversal day after some of the most bullish news that one could receive. The government jobs report was almost positive and the revisions were all much better. Then the factory order report was much better than expected. Many that are not traders would think the market would be moving to the moon and we have a huge reversal underway. It's is almost comical when the market is falling as it did at 2:30 pm ET to get positive comments from Fed Bank officials. This news remark did give the SPY a 2:30 pm pop. Wow, the government and bank officials are really watching every tick in this market. Makes me wonder.

Often on Friday's the market we rarely see the market have a big sell off point wise. Today there is no exception. The market is basically flat on the day even though we have a near 200 point reversal in place. However, the public who is not trading the market will think the market finished flat or slightly positive when they watch the evening news. We believe the 'Friday Effect' occurs so that there is no panic and the Asian markets dont get spooked over the weekend. Remember the Asian markets open up on Sunday evening if you live in North America. Look at the chart below. It makes us believe the Fed and the government are watching the technicals.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Trade lesson: Extended moves can lead to good trades

It is very important to watch for stocks on all time frames that get extended from the 20 moving average. Today NVDA was gapped higher on the day and very extended from it's 10 minute and 60 minute 20 moving averages. This tells us that the stock must pullback or stall at these levels. The next step is to find the strong resistance level. This can be accomplished by moving to the higher and usually more dominant time frame. Therefore, in this case we scan the daily chart and see a double top resistance level at 16.50. Since that level NVDA pulled back around 0.75 cents. This is a very good risk/reward intraday scalping opportunity that can be found on a daily basis. Remember always use stops as markets can do anything at anytime.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

All Eyes Watch With Anticipation As The Markets Begin To Set The Table For The Year E

One of the most volatile days came to an end on Friday. The markets initially reacting to the amazing jobs report of just 11,000 jobs lost in November. Then, selling hard as the dollar began to squeeze. So where is this market headed? First, let's take a look at the jobs number. In reality it must be recognized that manufacturing still took a terrible loss on jobs while services gained. So why is this a problem? Well considering retailers were hiring for Black Friday a week plus ago and they are hiring for the Christmas season, that would be your services jobs gained. Manufacturing is where you really want to see the jobs added. Service jobs are exactly what got us into this mess in the beginning. What do I mean by that? Well the US is all about buying things from other countries and selling them here. That is one of the main problems; we do not manufacture anything any longer. So to see manufacturing still take a hit is a big flashing light saying "warning". To gain service jobs, especially in retail means absolutely nothing as those jobs will vanish come January. So here we sit today. The markets are flat as the dollar consolidates off the huge squeeze move on Friday. Watch the pattern the dollar makes. Should be form a beautiful bullish flag pattern, this market may get smoked later this week or next week as the dollar spikes. In addition, watch the master levels I have laid out in the videos. Learn the confirmation technique and profit.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Trade Lesson: Downward Channels Will Eventually Breakout To The Upside...Great Exampl

Since yesterday morning, a channel had been forming on the SPY 10 minute chart. It was a nice downward channel that continued to bounce off the lower channel trendline and then hit the upper. These patterns break to the upside about 90% of the time and can be used as a great trading method for making money. The key is to understand that once the break is made, the technicals signal a move and traders pile on the trade. This send it spiking higher like the below example. Learn the channel patterns and make money.

 

[TAjammy]

Re: Trade Lesson: Downward Channels Will Eventually Breakout To The Upside...Great Ex

still it's worth shorting at the top or buying at the bottom with a tight stop, with the trend

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

All Of A Sudden Zombie Dollar Alert...The Dead Are Walking Again And Just Will Not Di

There has been a major change in the dollar over the last few days. Today it is the most apparent of all. Early this morning the dollar was much weaker. Just before the US markets opened, Spain was dropped to negative by S&P. The dollar shot higher immediately. Then as the market opened, the dollar started to fade again and the markets jumped higher. This seemed to be the same old story with pressure being put on the dollar day after day as if Ben Bernanke was sitting there with a button to click whenever he wanted to print money and kill the dollar. However, all of a sudden the dollar has reversed again and seems as though it just will not die. The rising dead? Could it be? This would be a huge change in character if that is the case. Keep an eye on it into the end of the day and the rest of the week. Could mean there will be a constant squeeze/bid in the dollar which will put pressure on the markets for the near future.

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

CITIGROUP Expected To Pay Back Tarp. Watch These Levels

Citigroup(NYSE:C) is expected to pay back the TARP money soon. They have been rumored to raise capital by issuing a huge secondary offering. This is similar to what Bank of America(NYSE:BAC) just completed. Citigroup is expected to raise $20 billion dollars in this offering. One can only wonder what the rush is to pay the TARP back lately. On Monday twelve major banks, including Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), and others had a meeting with President Barack Obama in the White House, an administration official said on Thursday.

Technically speaking of Citigroup there will be intraday resistance at the $3.93 level. The downside intraday support level looks at 3.83.

 

[sahajtrader]

Re: CITIGROUP Expected To Pay Back Tarp. Watch These Levels

Citigroup(NYSE:C) is expected to pay back the TARP money soon. They have been rumored to raise capital by issuing a huge secondary offering. This is similar to what Bank of America(NYSE:BAC) just completed. Citigroup is expected to raise $20 billion dollars in this offering. One can only wonder what the rush is to pay the TARP back lately. On Monday twelve major banks, including Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), and others had a meeting with President Barack Obama in the White House, an administration official said on Thursday.

Technically speaking of Citigroup there will be intraday resistance at the $3.93 level. The downside intraday support level looks at 3.83.

"One can only wonder what the rush is to pay the TARP back lately"

Its bonus time!! :clap::clap::clap:

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Geithner Defends Using TARP While Citigroup 20 Billion Offering May Signal Top Like B

I cannot help but watch this market like I am watching a cheesy horror movie which is both disgusting, funny and scary all rolled up into a perfect 90 minutes. The problem is, this 90 minute horror flick seems like it is lasting an eternity and it just gets worse and worse as it continues. Today we got jobless claims. The number of people filing claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 in the week ending Dec. 5. This was basically in line with expectations and continues to show improvement from the side of being below the 500,000 key level on initial claims. Continuing claims continued to fall moving towards the 5 million level. The key with continuing claims is how many of these claims are falling off because people are getting jobs while how many are falling off because they can no longer receive benefits as their time has run out. Remember, you can only collect unemployment for so long before you are told to go 'blank' yourself.

The markets opened the day on a solid gap up. Technically speaking, the SPY (NYSEArca: SPY) gapped over the intraday ten minute 200ma and pushed through gap fill from 12/07/09. However, this move was not confirmed. This means there is a high possibility of a fall back down. Sure enough, the SPY fell off this lack of confirmation signal and moved to the 200ma. From the 200ma, it bounced off course and moved back towards the highs of the day. This move back to the highs of the day coincided with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as he spoke on Capitol Hill on using TARP funds for other things that what they were explicitly designated for. The banter has gone back and forth, but ultimately they will most likely be able to steal the tax payer’s money once again and spend it, creating 50,000/year jobs by spending over 100,000. You have to love the math. In any case, print and spend government continues to rule the roost for now as the debt us and our kids will have to pay grows by the trillions. Just wait till the dollar collapses in a few years and taxes jump in a major way. Trust me, that nest egg we all are trying to build will be worth a lot less in real dollars in 5 years.

On to a few other interesting aspects of the market. Financials like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are weaker today along with real estate like Simon Ppty Grp Inc. (NYSE: SPG). It seems like the money flow is moving out of financials and real estate on the back of Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C). Citigroup, Inc. said it was likely to pay back TARP as well by raising 20 billion in an offering. This has to be looked at as very significant. All the worst companies are trying to pay back TARP. Why? Clearly the market is at the perfect point to do so. Not only do these companies want to pay huge bonuses and have no oversight (again), but the market is ripe for the picking. Money to financial institutions is ripe for the taking and Citigroup, Inc. knows that. If they wait too long they know the market will most likely collapse again due to the new bubbles the government/Federal Reserve are building. Their policy? Do it now and grab the money and run. I do not blame them; it is the perfect time to do it but also probably signals the top of the markets here as well. I remember clearly when Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), rushed their IPO to market back in June of 2007. This was a highly anticipated IPO and them rushing it to market essentially pegged the top of the markets. Sure enough, we know the history following.

Some small caps to watch. Pacer International, Inc. (NasdaqGS: PACR) looks attractive off the beautiful bull flag pattern it has made since the big one day run-up on November 4th, 2009. In addition, Labopharm Inc. (NasdaqGM: DDSS) continues to move higher after it was featured as my Hidden Gem pick at $1.55. It has hit a high of $1.87 as of today and continues to get discovered as a no brainer into the FDA meeting on their major drug on February 11th, 2010. This should continue to see accumulation going into that meeting as the price should continue to appreciate.

The markets continue to trade on the positive side today though are lacking continued upside as of now. The dollar is flat on the day keeping gold and oil in check. Natural gas exploded to the upside on inventory reports today. Stocks like Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) are reaping the rewards of a beaten down but popping natural gas price.


Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Geithner Defends Using TARP While Citigroup 20 Billion Offering May Signal Top Like B

Geithner Defends Using TARP While Citigroup 20 Billion Offering May Signal Top Like BX In 2007

I cannot help but watch this market like I am watching a cheesy horror movie which is both disgusting, funny and scary all rolled up into a perfect 90 minutes. The problem is, this 90 minute horror flick seems like it is lasting an eternity and it just gets worse and worse as it continues. Today we got jobless claims. The number of people filing claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 17,000 to a seasonally adjusted 474,000 in the week ending Dec. 5. This was basically in line with expectations and continues to show improvement from the side of being below the 500,000 key level on initial claims. Continuing claims continued to fall moving towards the 5 million level. The key with continuing claims is how many of these claims are falling off because people are getting jobs while how many are falling off because they can no longer receive benefits as their time has run out. Remember, you can only collect unemployment for so long before you are told to go 'blank' yourself.

The markets opened the day on a solid gap up. Technically speaking, the SPY (NYSEArca: SPY) gapped over the intraday ten minute 200ma and pushed through gap fill from 12/07/09. However, this move was not confirmed. This means there is a high possibility of a fall back down. Sure enough, the SPY fell off this lack of confirmation signal and moved to the 200ma. From the 200ma, it bounced off course and moved back towards the highs of the day. This move back to the highs of the day coincided with Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner as he spoke on Capitol Hill on using TARP funds for other things that what they were explicitly designated for. The banter has gone back and forth, but ultimately they will most likely be able to steal the tax payer’s money once again and spend it, creating 50,000/year jobs by spending over 100,000. You have to love the math. In any case, print and spend government continues to rule the roost for now as the debt us and our kids will have to pay grows by the trillions. Just wait till the dollar collapses in a few years and taxes jump in a major way. Trust me, that nest egg we all are trying to build will be worth a lot less in real dollars in 5 years.

On to a few other interesting aspects of the market. Financials like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are weaker today along with real estate like Simon Ppty Grp Inc. (NYSE: SPG). It seems like the money flow is moving out of financials and real estate on the back of Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C). Citigroup, Inc. said it was likely to pay back TARP as well by raising 20 billion in an offering. This has to be looked at as very significant. All the worst companies are trying to pay back TARP. Why? Clearly the market is at the perfect point to do so. Not only do these companies want to pay huge bonuses and have no oversight (again), but the market is ripe for the picking. Money to financial institutions is ripe for the taking and Citigroup, Inc. knows that. If they wait too long they know the market will most likely collapse again due to the new bubbles the government/Federal Reserve are building. Their policy? Do it now and grab the money and run. I do not blame them; it is the perfect time to do it but also probably signals the top of the markets here as well. I remember clearly when Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), rushed their IPO to market back in June of 2007. This was a highly anticipated IPO and them rushing it to market essentially pegged the top of the markets. Sure enough, we know the history following.

Some small caps to watch. Pacer International, Inc. (NasdaqGS: PACR) looks attractive off the beautiful bull flag pattern it has made since the big one day run-up on November 4th, 2009. In addition, Labopharm Inc. (NasdaqGM: DDSS) continues to move higher after it was featured as my Hidden Gem pick at $1.55. It has hit a high of $1.87 as of today and continues to get discovered as a no brainer into the FDA meeting on their major drug on February 11th, 2010. This should continue to see accumulation going into that meeting as the price should continue to appreciate.

The markets continue to trade on the positive side today though are lacking continued upside as of now. The dollar is flat on the day keeping gold and oil in check. Natural gas exploded to the upside on inventory reports today. Stocks like Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) are reaping the rewards of a beaten down but popping natural gas price.


Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Re: Geithner Defends Using TARP While Citigroup 20 Billion Offering May Signal Top Li

sorry for the duplicate post, the title got cut off, now i cant figure out how to delete this one. hmm

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Retail Sales Strong. But Apple Inc.(NasdaqGS: AAPL), Goldman Sachs Grp (NYSE: GS)

... Warn Of Weakness.​

Industrial production numbers from China came out very strong with a year over year gain on the monthly number of 19.2%. In addition, U.S. Retail Sales numbers were very strong. This gave the market a solid gap higher into the open even though the dollar was stronger as well. Since the open, the dollar has continued to squeeze higher. This move on the dollar coming after a multi day technical bullish consolidation pattern. As the markets inched up throughout the first hour of trading, the dollar continued to gain traction and squeeze. However, there were some flaws in this. The stocks showing signs of life were the likes of Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) which is rather counter intuitive based on the strength in the U.S. dollar and the slight weakness in oil.

While Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) remained extremely strong, other leaders in the market were losing ground and collapsing down. Stocks like Apple Inc. (NasdaqGS: AAPL) and Amazon.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS: AMZN) were alerting traders that the markets gains were likely to be given up shortly in the tech sector. In addition, Goldman Sachs Grp (NYSE: GS) and JP Morgan Chase Co (NYSE: JPM) were also telling traders the financials had no strength today. These signals when the market was hammering on the highs of the day around 11:00am ET, were signaling trouble in "River City". Sure enough the market has rolled over and come all the way back in, hovering around the flat line.

Other announcements making the news today are coming from the governments pay czar who is limiting cash compensation at automakers and banks executives to $500,000. In addition, Goldman Sachs Grp (NYSE: GS) came out yesterday in an attempt to appease the public and said they would pay their top 30 executives purely in stock. Granted, that is essentially what Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns did with their employees owning up to 30% of the company...and we know how that turned out. Long story short, no matter the regulations, the government has shown they have no clue how to do anything and just screw things up even more. In addition, greed and fear rule the markets, this has been the way it is from the very beginning of time and will likely continue to rule free markets forever. The key is to let free markets work. If you let companies fail that screw up then companies will try and avoid screwing up. If you bail them out, what really is the incentive to not screw up and take risks that make cause the collapse? Those in Congress do not get it and unfortunately are making the future bubbles even bigger. For now focus on the short term with your ear to the ground on the long term next bubble.

Today being Friday, it is expected that light volume will prevail. Volume has been hard to come by of late in turn the markets have floated sideways to higher. Light volume usually dictates sideways to higher markets due to the psychology effect of human nature. My nature we are positive in our outlook. This tells us that when few participants are in the market, the markets will float generally higher. To prove the point, think about this. If you are not positive, there are countless antidepressant drugs to be put on so you become positive.

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

 

[InTheMoneyStocks]

Trade lesson: All tops are not created equal

One of the best and most simple patterns to find is the double top. While most intraday double tops will be a good resistance level and a possible intraday scalp area they are not all created equal. As traders all we look to do is put the odds in our favor. Therefore, technically we want to take advantage and read the best support/resistance levels possible.

When trading the double top pattern intraday we want to spot a top that occur several days ago. In fact the longer back the better the odds. For example, look at the COST 15 minute chart the last time COST made a significant pivot high was on December 7th around the 59.75 level. Then today at the open COST trades up to that same level and then sells off. Always keep a 10 day chart up on the smaller time frames as this will help you identify prior major resistance levels.